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TORNADO EMERGENCY: ALERT: Confirmed tornado on the ground near St. James, MN. SHARE!
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[quote:Anonymous Coward 52449845:MV8yNTE3MTU0XzQzNTIyNjk3XzczOTc0QzZB] Day 1 convective outlook National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 am CDT Friday Mar 28 2014 Valid 281300z - 291200z ..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms portions central Texas to middle-south region and Gulf Coast states... ... Downstream from large northestern Pacific cyclone...progressive/quasi-zonal flow will persist across Continental U.S.. shortwave trough associated with convection over MO/Iowa yesterday is moving east-northeastward across upper Great Lakes at this time...and will continue to weaken as it accelerates eastward over southern ont...southern Quebec and New England. Meanwhile...shortwave troughs now over Black Hills and southern High Plains are separate but moving nearly in step with each other. By 00z...these perturbations should reach fsd-Oma and dfw-vct corridors...respectively. Southern-stream trough should eject northeastward across Tennessee Valley region by daybreak tomorrow morning...as initially weak/intermediary trough amplifies over Ozarks. Moisture-channel imagery also indicates precursory shortwave trough has developed in association with -- and probably resulting from -- persistent/disorganized mesoscale convective system over la/MS/al. This feature should track eastward across central-eastern Gulf coastal plain and Georgia through remainder period. At surface...frontal zone associated with departing northern-stream trough has stalled across southwestern Arkansas...southeastern OK...N-central Texas between metroplex and Red River and northwest Texas...to weak surface cyclone centered between abi-sps-cds. As middle-upper level wave moves over central Texas...cold front will move southward over that region while surface low migrates east-southeastward to E-central/southeast Texas. Overnight...low should shift/redevelop east-northeastward over northern MS...deepening and reaching middle-eastern Tennessee by 12z. At that time...cold front should extend southwestward through western Alabama..sern MS...southeastern la and northwestern Gulf. Dryline...currently analyzed from northern coahuila northeastward across bwd area...should mix eastward by middle-late afternoon to I-35/US-77 corridor before being overtaken from north-S by cold front. ..central Texas to middle-south region and Gulf Coast states... Broad...messy and somewhat conditional severe threat is evident over this region. Big 15%/slight area actually is aggregated from three somewhat distinct threats that overlap spatially... 1. Lower Delta to southern Alabama and Florida Panhandle today -- ongoing/persistent mesoscale convective system over this region is expected to translate slowly eastward...offering risk of sporadic damaging downdrafts...mainly from outflow driven by precipitation loading in small bows. Hail threat appears marginal and tied to any sustained supercell structures...given weak ambient lapse rates. Tornado potential from any embedded/transient supercells cannot be ruled out but is very dependent on mesoscale-Beta to storm-scale effects. 2. S Texas to arklatex and mid-south...morning through evening -- scattered...initially elevated thunderstorms have developed between sjt-mwl in regime of low-level warm air advection and moisture transport above strong inversion layer evident in 12z forward/drt radiosonde observations. This or more likely subsequent/afternoon convection near dryline should move eastward into diabatically destabilizing air mass. Timing...duration...coverage and evolution of convection across this area remains very uncertain. As such...probabilities in this area are adjusted little from prior outlook. Very steep midlevel lapse rates are likely...such that maximum cloud-layer Li of -13 to -16 and 2000-3000 j/kg MLCAPES are possible even with reduction in surface dew points due to boundary-layer mixing. That mixing will produce inverted-v thermodynamic profiles suitable for damaging gusts as well as for maintenance to surface of large hail generated aloft. Forecast soundings indicate supercell-supportive low-middle level wind profiles...and presence of large cape aloft in ideal hail-generation zones. As such...significant/damaging hail is quite possible from any sustained/discrete storms. Activity may undergo cold-pool-driven aggregation into one or more bands or arcs moving east-northeastward to eastward over this area with damaging winds and large hail possible. 3. MS Delta Region tonight -- another round of thunderstorms may develop in vicinity of surface cold front...offering damaging winds and isolated hail. Any such activity would move eastward over air mass that...by then...should have recovered sufficiently from current mesoscale convective system activity to support renewed severe potential. Meanwhile deep shear and large-scale ascent each will be enhanced by approach of shortwave trough...amidst surface dew points middle-60s f. .Edwards/Smith.. 03/28/2014 [/quote]
Original Message
RIGHT NOW: Confirmed tornado as of 5 minutes ago just SE of Trenton, MO. Heading toward Milan, MO. Seek shelter immediately. SHARE!
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