|
Original Message
|
LATEST GEOPHYSICAL THREAT ASSESSMENTS:
Solar conditions are now diminishing and should remain low until about August 29, 2006 when a new peak, perhaps in the range of 40-60 will form up for the next planetary alignment – a three way between six planets. Since the Sun is near MIN and Cycle 23 is ending, this alignment may not produce much impact on the Sun or on Earth. Tectonic activity is falling off in all ways. This year’s volcano season is over and the Full Moon Perigee of August 8/9 produced very little surge in major quakes, only in the numbers of small quakes. NO CHANGE: High temperature deviations in the North Atlantic are more propitious than ever for drawing a lot more Atlantic storms into New England through Newfoundland. Carib and Gulf conditions NO LONGER propitious for vigorous hurricane season. Warm water off Newfoundland, all the way to Portugal, may be producing enough cross vector which is suppressing hurricanes in the Atlantic this year by sucking wet air straight to the North from the Equator. As with last week, all other climate factors have become transitional, chaotic, and unpredictable. A Strange Time.
Polar Motion: - no change from last two weeks – sorta
The anomaly still seems to be slowly resolving. Sorta. Very slowly. In fact, the past week of motion gives the current situation more of a muddle than any clear pattern. An expanding spiral motion in the 7 year Chandler Wobble cycle is now revealing that the largest phase shift in recorded history of polar motion has in fact occurred. Since we do not know exactly where we are yet in the new seven year cycle, we probably will not be able to completely define the magnitude mathematically for another three years or so. The phase shift may be, by present appearances, in the range of 90 degrees.
As far as the amount of displacement of the average location of the Spin Axis, this “appears” as of the moment to have recovered to within historical norms of the last half of Century 20. The overall displacement appears to have been some 83.3 centimeters of 32.8 inches, which if averaged over six years since the last MIN in the size of the wobble, (measured as MIN on the X Axis), we have averages of 13.9 centimeters and 5.5 inches compared with the approx. 12.5 centimeter average annual displacement of last half of Century 20. (These numbers by graphical dead-reckoning of the average spin location). This however is merely appearance at the moment and as should be known the wobble is somewhat irregular so it is better to base such a figure on a longer time frame somewhat more “after the fact”.
The size of this average displacement is radically less than observed last February. Here is now my interpretation of this anomaly. The Great Sumatra Rupture of December 2004 occurred while the wobble in the Spin Axis was decreasing in size down nearly into the beginning of its smallest spiral size (each spiral is about 14 months long). The Great Rupture disrupted the fluidic motion of the Spin Axis sufficiently to send it on a long careen considerably out of its “balanced” trajectory. This resulted in its sudden “arrest” in November 2005 through February 2006, which was caused by the geophysical vectors which establish the Earth’s overall balance. So the “arrest” was balance reasserting itself.
To return in equipoise, the Earth’s Spin Axis skipped literally during a 90 day period into a new cycle of wobble motion, hence the cartioid shape of the motion of the Spin Axis on the Wobble Track graphs. This of course is seen as a phase shift in the X and Y graphs which are produced by the IERS Agency.
From this I infer that all else is as before, only a little earlier because we are further advanced in a new wobble cycle than we would have been. Using past correlations as a guide, we should see a substantial increase in earthquake and especially volcanic activity fairly soon. I strongly suspect that the upcoming new season of volcanic activity, which usually begins in December closely associated with the Earth’s Perihelion phase, will set new world records.
“Quake activity should upsurge with the upcoming “season” of Full Moon Perigees, which will commence this very month on August 9/10 and extend through November 2006.” Or not. There was very little upsurge this Full Moon Perigee.
Solar Activity: and weather
Flux at 85, slightly falling?. Sunspots 36, falling (as of August 15). We have exited solar wind gusts from coronal holes. The U of Alaska Fluxgate Monitor is largely flatline. NASA is predicting little if any activity in storms, spots, and disturbances.
We are in Solar Min, but not quite to the bottom of the cycle. The next peak is due about August 29 but I do not expect it to be much larger than the 45 experienced on August 14. Most of the influence of the Sun will be drawn away from the Earth by the alignments of planets on the other side of the Sun.
Solar and Earth Magnetic:
It has been claimed as a result of studies published in 2003, most esp. by Michael Lockwood in a Nature Magazine article (399 437), that the Sun’s magnetic field had increased during the past century by some 140%. I have examined this study again, scratched my head for a long time over their charts, and done some database delving. I simply cannot buy the claim. For more details, see update of August 9 2006. PREDICTION: All expansion of planetary atmospheres and magnetic envelopes are shrinking rapidly these days as a direct response to the declining solar output as Solar Cycle 23 MINS out and readies to begin life again as Solar Cycle 24.
Volcanic Activity:
Volcanic activity is clearly declining all around the planet at the current time. This is the send of this year’s volcano season. A little activity was reported around the Perigee but since then reporting has lagged with almost no updates since August 12. Etna is still gassing slightly, but Popo and Colima emitted only 3 or 2 times each during the preceding day. The Kamchatka volcanoes, along with St Helens and the recently active Aleutian island volcanoes are still active seismically, but little gassing or ash has been evident. Mayon in the Philippines is stiff active, on high alert level 4, with active ash and lava extrusion, but the 2 other Philippine volcanoes are mostly silent. Kilauea still oozes, and Serrat still smokes, but Guatemalan volcanoes are falling asleep along with the Indonesian volcanoes. SWVC reports only 25 now active (down one from last week), 6 restive (same as last week), 69 alert according to the SWVC (down 2 from last week).
More probable than not, the next season will begin in December at the latest, possibly as early as very late October, or anytime in between.
Earthquake Activity:
This Full Moon Perigee syzygy on Aug 8/9 was a bust for earthquakes. For activity above 5.0 throughout the world, seismic action was random with 2 to 4 quakes per day since the syzygy, with a major portion of it in the Great Rift system. Only three 6.0 plus quakes during the last seven days, which is low for a Full Moon Perigee.
For quakes above 2.5 in the greater North American portion of the globe, high frequencies in the Virgin Islands (near Puerto Rico) and in the Rat Islands (Aleutian chain). Other than that, activity was also amazingly depressed in over-all volume.
PROGNOSIS: More of the same during next week.
LUNAR SCHEDULE:
Perigee Apogee
Jul 13 17:36 364286 km F+2d14h Jul 29 13:03 405404 km N+4d 8h
Aug 10 18:29 359754 km F+1d 7h Aug 26 1:24 406270 km - N+2d 6h
Sep 8 3:08 357174 km + F+ 8h Sep 22 5:22 406498 km -- N- 6h
Oct 6 14:08 357409 km F- 13h Oct 19 9:36 406073 km - N-2d19h
Nov 3 23:52 360597 km F-1d13h Nov 15 23:21 405192 km N-4d22h
Dec 2 0:07 365922 km F-3d 0h Dec 13 18:57 404416 km N-6d19h
New Full
2006 Aug 23 19:11 2006 Sep 7 18:44
2006 Sep 22 11:46 2006 Oct 7 3:14
2006 Oct 22 5:15 2006 Nov 5 12:59
2006 Nov 20 22:18 2006 Dec 5 0:25
2006 Dec 20 14:01 2007 Jan 3 13:58
Since the New Moon Syzygies will be far from Perigees during the next three lunar cycles, their influences will be the weakest of 2006. On September 7, a Full Moon will be followed by an September 8 Perigee. Full Moons should have the maximum syzygy punch on the Earth through the remainder of the year. All dates UTC.
Here is the list of the remaining Super Moon Syzygies for 2006, meaning a New or Full Moon at Perigee or within 90 per cent.
SEP 07, 2006 | 06:43 PM | FULL MOON
OCT 07, 2006 | 03:13 AM | FULL MOON
In accordance with Hotno’s remarks, the October Full Moon may be the deadliest during 2006, esp. through the Medit-Himalayan Belt.
PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS:
The Sun is almost at MINIMA
THIS MAY SAVE THE CARIB AND GULF COAST LINES THIS YEAR. The timing of the rapid die-off of solar activity is not very predictable but it is a welcome ray of hope which may result in this Hurricane Season remaining closer to the old averages than the new trends established during 2004/05. In fact, it is looking more and more like the average will not even occur.
However, keep in mind that precisely because the Sun is mutable and somewhat chaotic in its responses to the planets, which makes exact prediction impossible and most forecasts somewhat sloppy, we could see a sudden flare-out of new activity at any time.
AS PREDICTED PREVIOUSLY August should lull down for the first two weeks until another double-header alignment forms up on about August 21. The Earth will align with Neptune about August 20, which will produce a minor peak in Solar Activity about August 15, while Mercury will align with Venus about August 21 and quickly speed by Saturn the next day.
THIS OCCURRED AS PREDICTED, ACTUALLY WITH TWO SMALL PEAKS, THE LATEST ON August 14 with Spots at 45, Flux at 86. THIS PREDICTION DID NOT HAPPEN: “These passages most likely will produce another spectacular increase in Solar Activity.”
This small response shows us how pooped the Sun has become. It is about to fall into its NULL state to allow cycle 24 to begin with an new magnetic polarity in its atmosphere.
WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THIS PREDICTION?: “But wait it can and most likely will get worse about the end of August when Solar Activity is pulled out in even larger volumes by a triple header alignment on September 4.”
Well, this it a hard one. Sunspot activity will probably increase very close to August 29, probably at a peak a little higher than the last one of August 14, but it is likely to be not long in duration as this triple alignment is so highly focused within a three to four day period. Now it gets even trickier for relating to Earth’s weather. The two non-Earth alignments will be on the opposite side of the Sun far from visibility. The greater amount of solar activity will flow away from the Earth, thus the impact of the alignment may be only slightly greater than with the August 14 alignment, from which very little impact is being felt.
September 3-6
Mercury | Mars
Venus | Saturn
Earth | Uranus
THEREFORE, SPEAKING PLANETWISE, NOT ON TRACK: Beware then, THE IDES OF AUGUST. Hurricane activity will be greatly stimulated during the third week of August leading into the New Moon period on August 23. The New Moon of August may be especially ominous this year.
In fact, welcome to Solar MIN. There will not be much impact on this hurricane season. All projections have turned to nothing. Not that I am alone. All the global weathermen were fooled as well.
SOME OF THIS EFFECT MAY STILL BE FELT: “Any hurricanes which form up about the New Moon of August 23 or during the ensuing week are likely to be stimulated THREE TIMES by the Sun, a few days apart each time.”
ATMOSPHERIC VORTEX
HURRICANE WATCH: Much diminished for North America. Egg on the face for all predictions and predictors, including this one. Apparently reduced solar activity has neutralized the extremes of Global Warming for this year. If so, this could persist for another couple of years.
PACIFIC WATCH: New patterns now evolving. Seeds of El Nino are slowly emerging. The Scripps projection below may be conservative. These developments could portend an El Nino next year. The warm water parked off the California/Baja coasts is breaking up. There is now a new “dead zone” in the ocean water off the coast of Oregon. Since that zone hosts an active volcanic spreading rift, including three volcanoes and another 20% of the rift venting hot water, it is likely that this emerging dead zone is telling us that there was some strong volcanic activity along this rift this past several months. If so, this may end up harbingering the next El Nino, which is produced by volcanic rifting along the Equator. Strong possibility here.
ATLANTIC WATCH: Big warm anomaly in the Northern Atlantic from Newfoundland to Portugal. It has gotten ever larger this past three weeks. I now strongly suspect that this patch may be creating enough cross pressure pull of the air to keep the energy from building along the Equator for hurricanes. All Carib and Gulf Basin sea surface temperature appears at about the same temperature, and quite a bit of this temperature now matches the southern Atlantic Seaboard. This will promote equi-potential for the land fall of all storms, thus these will likely be heavily influenced more by jet stream mechanics than by the sea surface temperatures.
NEWFOUNDLAND: The same, only more so. The water off Newfoundland has consolidated into a large warm patch which is persisting strongly. As it did during the past four weeks, this will be sure to suck more floody storms into the New England area. In later August it could help bring in a major hurricane which hits up “high” onto New York as is now subliminally feared and oft discussed. Since it is in the ethers, the planetary alignments, and in the ocean charts, those who live there should be concerned about major destructive storms riding during August and September into New England and of course anywhere along the Southern coasts. Have your “battens” well fastened.
Take a look at all this on the “Anomalies Chart” at
[link to www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov]
SOUTHWEST: Not sure what is going to happen next here. While the continent baked this past two weeks, we had cloudy days and cooling moisture. The clouds however have produced less rain than is normal for an average monsoon, so the drought, as discussed below, IS still the prevailing pattern.
THIS IS ON TRACK – BUT CONSIDERABLY MORE SLOWLY THAN LAST YEAR – I expect that the acceleration of Global Warming during the last four years will sustain a stiff drought regime in the desert latitudes of North and South America, Africa, and through the Middle East for the next several years. I believe we are likely to see dust bowl conditions widespread in both Africa and America. During the next several years, there is not likely to be much relief in Africa and the Sonoran Desert in the PSW of the U.S. The PSW probably will not see much monsoon rain except in the high elevations above 7000 feet. There may not be any relief until the next El Nino, which will come during 2007 or 2008 at the latest This pattern will continue to persist for the foreseeable future under the global warming trend. There will be occasional short-lived relief, as in late 2004 and early 2005, from El Nino wet air, but most of this wet air will probably end up far to the North and to the East, producing extremes of flooding and large numbers of tornadoes in other areas. In other words, the new normal is there is no normal at all, just a deepening of chaotic extremes.
AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED, BUT MORE SLOWLY THAN LAST YEAR:
Weather PATTERNS will continue to be non-normal because of the chaotic mixing effects which Global Warming Syndrome is inducing into the flow of air. All local regimes will continue to be perturbed and this perturbance will gradually get more and more surreal through this time of the rapidly accelerating Change In The Earth. No normality will be seen for at least the next four millennia. All biomes will relentlessly migrate and transmute. Catastrophic impact of the weather in some regions, such as the Carib Basin, will ebb and flow in severity in response to the modulation imposed by the 7 year cycle in the Wobble, (the Primary Axis Cycle). In general, the coast lines of the Gulf area, including Florida, are in process of being destroyed and this process will accelerate. REVISED AUGUST 2006: A REPRIEVE ON THIS PROJECTION BELOW DURING SOLAR MIN. It is likely that North Americans will give up on the Gulf Coast. The islands in the Carib Basin will face the same issues and abandonment of some of these will commence as well during the next four years. This process may not start until Solar Cycle 24 is well advanced. It should be noticeable by 2009, possibly earlier depending upon how much solar and tectonic activity emerges to feed into the Global Warming Syndrome.
SCRIPPS EL NINO WATCH: - no change since June 5
see [link to meteora.ucsd.edu]
“Forecast Summary (Updated August 1 2006): The model is forecasting the current cold conditions to be replaced by mild warm conditions by the end of 2006.”
ECB Commentary: Right on. I expect now to see El Nino arrive during the Fall of 2007 to last through the Spring of 2008. This coming El Nino probably will be driven by a record-breaking increase in world volcanism during late 2006 and through 2007. The El Nino will break a lot of climate/weather records.
Best Wishes, Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA at [email protected]
Master Website Index is at: [link to www.michaelmandeville.com]
|
