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Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
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Original Message
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Tornado Prediction Center
Ontario Weather Service
Ontario, California
May 31, 2008 – 8:00amCDT
Strong to violent tornadoes are possible across the Northeastern / Eastern Coast of the United States today. This very unusual setup will be aided by strong dynamics so read on for details.
By early afternoon, ongoing showers and thunderstorms will be persisting across the Northeastern part of the nation. These thunderstorms will be in a highly sheared environment capable of producing tornadoes.
Indication are telling me that the danger zone where the most convergence, lift and instability will be will be in the Northern New Jersey sections, Northward into Eastern New York. Now I’m not a big fan of seeing such high shear values for this area. However, this looks like one of those rare days. One you don’t see but once every 20 years or so in this area. Seems like the rare days are starting to come out at once over the past year. This area is prone to possibly strong to violent tornadoes (EF3 – EF5) this afternoon. A pretty respectable cap will be in place so I would probably target Northwestern New Jersey.
Further East into Northern Oklahoma and Southern Kansas a warm frontal zone will be the focus for tornadic storms. At this time, we look to have a cap in place during the early afternoon at around 10,000 feet so this should keep storms from developing too much.
The Northeastern USA frontal zone should clear the Eastern Coast of New Jersey during the early evening.
North of there will be met with the strong convergence zone. This convergence zone will be in the Southeastern Vermont to Southwestern New Hampshire locations. The forcing along this zone will create severe thunderstorm chances. The shear in this zone looks favorable for tornadoes so keep on the look out up here. I do have a special concern for this area in fact. The convergence zone is very strong. Instability is enough for robust updrafts. The low level flow into this area is over 50-60 mph. This does spell strong to violent tornadoes possible. This is most likely the same piece of energy that will fly out of Southeastern New York a few hours earlier. Lack of cap in this area suggests this might actually happen so be on the extra look out. EF2 – EF5 tornadoes are possible in this area during the early evening.
Further South along the cold front, instability remains very strong across the Central Virginia area. This is an area to watch as well because with this instability, severe thunderstorms are very possible and probable during the early evening. Shear values are not that impressive however the convergence profiles are in this area. This could lead to tornadoes given this kind of strong convergence regardless of shear. Main concern would ultimately be hail and wind with isolated tornadoes.
The cap will finally break during the later afternoon hours in Oklahoma. Indications are of a violent tornado possible along the warm frontal boundary where strong convergence and strong shear will exist coupled with strong instability and more than enough moisture. I-35 North out of Oklahoma City will be a very dangerous road. Especially between Oklahoma City, Oklahoma and Wichita, Kansas. I am seeing this stay away from both metro areas at this time. Target zones are Perry, Bedrock, and Pawnee, Oklahoma. This is the general area of most concern for initiation of storms, being tornadic.
By sunset and maybe night, the Southern extent of the frontal boundary will be over the Southeastern Virginia area. This area looks interesting due to the fact it will have increased low-level wind dynamics all day. Instability will be very high in this area. Shear values ahead and along the initial frontal zone support strong to violent tornadoes as well as strong low-level convergence along the coastal convergence zone in this area. Moisture values are very high and LCL level will be very low. Bases will be low, and able to support a wedge tornado.
Around the same time further West, Oklahoma will still be firing thunderstorms in a West to East fashion across a strong convergence zone associated with the warm front there. Mid level capping is possible on the Eastern part of it. Any storms that do form there should be weak at most, with the strongest, most powerful storms being West of I-35 in an area of stronger convergence and no capping at the surface or aloft. Oklahoma City looks to stay out of these however you’ll find a nice light show to your North!
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