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Subject OBAMA TAKES 4 POINT LEAD OVER MCCAIN IN GALLUP DAILY TRACKING POLL

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[quote:Anonymous Coward 426194:MV82MTAxMTJfOTMxNzQ1MV84ODM5OEFBQw==]
The national polls don't take a good cross-section - you have to look at state-by-state and then add them up.

That being said, Obama HAS gained in state-by-state polling in recent days. This is what I show, if the votes were in today, not taking into account margin of error, Obama leads McCain 274-227 Electoral Votes.

Now, of all of those electoral votes, 103 votes are "toss-up" votes (within 5% of the population voting for one or the other). 37 of those 103 are DEAD EVEN.

If you throw out the toss-ups, those within 5%, the count is currently: 208 McCain to 190 Obama. Very close race. McCain currently leads the popular vote 46.93% to 45.51%.

The majority of these state by state polls were all taken between [u][i][b]Sep. 8 and Sep. 18 [/b][/i][/u](very current). The exceptions, which are all firmly in one camp or another, are listed below:

Arkansas - July 15, 47%-37% Firm McCain, Rasmussen
Connecticut - July 31, 51%-36% Firm Obama, Rasmussen
Maryland - Aug 18, 53%-41%, Firm Obama, Rasmussen
Mass. - Aug 5, 51%-31%, Firm Obama, Rasmussen
Nebraska - July 28, 50%-32% Firm McCain, Rasmussen
South Carolina - July 23,53%-40% Firm McCain, Research 2000
Tennessee - Aug. 20, 56%-32% Firm McCain, Rasmussen
Vermont - March 6, 63%-29% Firm Obama, Survey USA
[/quote]

Original Message Gallup Daily: Obama 48%, McCain 44%Marks Obama’s first statistically significant lead in two weeksUSA Election 2008 Gallup Daily Americas Northern America PRINCETON, NJ --

The Sept. 15-17 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama with a 48% to 44% lead over John McCain among registered voters, marking the first time that Obama has held a statistically significant lead in two weeks.

The presidential race has essentially devolved back to a structure very similar to what pertained throughout the months of June and July, during which time Obama consistently averaged a three percentage point lead over McCain. There have been fairly significant shifts over the last several weeks, including periods of time in and around the conventions during which both Obama and McCain established leads, and times when the race was essentially tied. But beginning this week, it appears the voters have settled, for the moment, back into the familiar pattern in which the race remains close with a slight tilt towards Obama.

Separate Gallup tracking shows that consumer confidence has become significantly more negative as this week progressed, signifying that Americans are clearly paying attention to the major problems facing Wall Street and the big drops in the stock market on Monday and Wednesday. It is not possible to determine precisely how much of Obama's gain this week may have been directly caused by Americans' reactions to the economic stories dominating news coverage in newspapers, television, and on the Internet, although this is a plausible explanation. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Frank Newport

[link to www.gallup.com]

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