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04:18 PM

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Subject Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...

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[quote:Isaac Brock died for us:MV82NTE1MjJfOTkxNTg3Ml8yMTdDNDU2NQ==]
[quote:Anonymous Coward 342843]

Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"?  Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times?

Well, here's what some guy said on a financial forum:
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[i]"What's going on is a credit crunch, LC and LOC [letters of credit] freeze, and a drying up of dry cargo trade. Capesize freighters are getting only $6,365 per day (from $163,563/day one year ago, $235,000 peak) which is their daily COST. They tried slowing down from 11 knots to 8, now they will just park them in the offing and wait.

Total collapse of global trade. Unbelievable.

11750 peak BDI
885 now.

-92.5%"[/i]
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The credit crunch has really made it difficult to ship things.

Aside from that, there is a fundamental change going on too.

For example boots.
Canadians used to buy "made in Canada" boots which were very high quality.  For the last 10 years, most work boots have been made in places like Vietnam.  Lately the manufacturers have realised that the cost of shipping leather to Vietnam and then shipping boots back, eats up all the savings on the lower labour costs.  Boot manufacturing in Canada is making
 a comeback. 
There are probably other consumer industries where they are going back to local manufacturing.

Globalisation doesn't always make economic sense.
[/quote]

Original Message Check out this chart of the Baltic Dry Index, which measures shipping activity around the world:

[link to i66.photobucket.com]

It has absolutely plunged from a peak this year (May) of 11,750 down to 885 this month! That's a ginormous drop!

The BDI is considered a good indicator of future economic activity, because much of the material being shipped are raw resources to make things. If those resources aren't shipping, then nobody is making (or selling or buying) anything.

Pictures (click to insert)





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