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School closes in UK Flu
Ms Sans Serif
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[quote:Wraithwynd:MV83ODQ4NjlfMTIwNDY5NzdfMjIxNjI5MEQ=] The Math, the Math, The Math... 28 April there were 99 [b]confirmed [/b]cases 29 April there were 154 [b]confirmed [/b]cases Yesterday 30 April there were 212 [b]confirmed [/b]cases. Today 1 May there are 478 [b]confirmed [/b]cases Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8021547.stm 99 to 154 (growth 1.55) 154 to 212 (growth 1.376) 212 to 478(growth 2.254) Lets assume that growth remains constant at an average of those growth figures (1.822) That means 2 May expected confirmed cases will be 871 3 May 1566 4 May 2850 5 May 5187 6 May 9440 7 May 17,180 8 May 31,267 9 May 56,907 10 May 103,570 If this is a non stop 100% communicable disease, then by 20 May we could be looking at 41,300,109 cases. Yes you read that correctly 41 million. Even with a low death rate of say 0.05% we are talking a potential 20,650 deaths. Even with a mortality rate of just ).01% we would see 4,130 deaths of the infected population of 20 may. That's just 20 days down the road. The math will change as time progresses - mark my words this latest jump in the numbers is not the last large 'sudden' leap. The processing of information and tests will lead to skewed updates of the numbers - that is if the BBC is even given the real numbers. [/quote]
British school in Bristol is closing untill the 11th may. Puilp confirmed with swine flu.. She was on the same plane as the scottish couple, who were first confimed here in the UK. Link... BBC
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