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Freight (Air, Sea, Rail, Road) - CRASHED and going DOWN AGAIN (report and video)
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Shipping and freight movement is the life-blood of just about any economy. This report and video show something you will not see on msm. Groups of tankers and ships, sitting around waiting for business, like never before seen. The shipping business is down again, after being down for months and the BDI (which is the index they use to set pricing) is crashing again...
But, it get;s worse. This drop is not only via sea going freight. It includes air freight and rail car loads. It is all, down again, after already being way down. Check out the charts on the link and in the video. Very sobering. Those that say, "we are recovering" should see this and think twice before they in-directly tell people to go on with spending as normal (in so many words). Be prepared.
Shipping in dire straights, crashing: The Leading Indicator on the Economy...
Updated Alert:
10/10/09
* “U.S. freight railroads originated 1,116,182 carloads in August 2009, down 16.4% (218,593 carloads) from August 2008 and the 10th straight double-digit monthly carload decline. However, the percentage decline in August was the lowest since February 2009.”
* “Average weekly carloads on U.S. railroads in August 2009 (279,046) were more than 15,000 carloads higher than in July 2009 and higher than any previous month in 2009, though seasonal factors account for some of that increase…”
Looking at the report’s breakdown of rail traffic by commodity type, nearly every category still shows double digit declines from the prior year, although as the report indicates, traffic has improved significantly from the depths of the recession earlier this year. There are numerous charts in the report that show more granular details.
Source: A Look at Warren Buffett's Favorite Economic Indicator
Is that a leading or lagging indicator? To me, it is leading; just as the Dry Ships, Inc Baltic Index was leading into the 2008 crash. And what do we see there now?
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is still low, quite low and seemingly correcting big again:
As the main article, which you should check out, started with, is what I will end this article with:
"The biggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history lies at anchor east of Singapore. Never before photographed, it is bigger than the U.S. and British navies combined but has no crew, no cargo and no destination - and is why your Christmas stocking may be on the light side this year."
Update: Elliot Wave International update on this developing story and chart analysis of the BDI. Here is one quote:
""A bull might note that the Baltic Dry index rallied over 600% from its low. But that rally from the low is a three-wave move, suggesting a correction against a larger trend. Any additional weakness in the Baltic Dry will break the rising trendline channel of its recent rally."
-- Chris Carolan, July 10 European Short Term Update."
(What he is saying is that it WILL crash further, likely even lower, somehow!!)
[link to newsusa.myfeedportal.com]
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