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05:35 PM
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Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
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[quote:D. Bunker:MV85NzEwNTJfMTUxNzI2MDVfOEZGQTZERUY=] [quote:malu] like your new avatar pic i wonder how turkey will play out in all of this? i also wonder if this will be used as a reason to stop the flow of troops out of iraq? i need to look at a world map, as i also wonder if the slow escalation in pakistan is related [/quote] I would not expect Turkey to involve themselves directly nor is there direct linkage to the Wests concerns regarding Pakistan. This is primarily about Israeli security and/or the Iranian Shia block seizing a perceived opportunity. [/quote]
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I will go on record as expecting a regional war in the Middle East this year. My belief is it will be contained to Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel and possibly Syria. I do not expect Iran to directly participate, but is certainly planning to support their proxy participants via munitions.
I have predicted this before and will admit my ability to predict Hezbollah's plans has been poor recently. As to how this conflict will start depends on which chooses to initiate hostilities.
If Israel chooses preemption, look for the focus to begin with Hamas in terms of containment before moving to the Northern border.
If Hezbollah and Hamas choose to initiate, they will do so with little to no warning.
The timing for such a conflict is the most difficult; however, both sides would benefit from the mobility that a summer campaign would provide. Israel may maximize their advantages with an early spring attack, while Hezbollah would likely maximize theirs with a late Summer engagement.
I would expect the ramifications to be more extreme for all parties than the war in 2006.
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