As you've probably heard by now, the White House race will be decided in Ohio, a perennial bellwether with a history of picking presidents.
Ohio is considered a must-win for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, both of whom need the state's 18 electoral college votes to ensure a path to 270. If Obama wins Ohio, his re-election will basically be a cakewalk, while Romney's chances at winning the White House are slim if he can't pull off a victory in the Buckeye State.
With that in mind, here are the few of the key regions to watch as Ohio's election results start to come in tonight:
Hamilton County: This is the county to watch in Ohio tonight. Home to Cincinnati, Hamilton County was the state's biggest Republican bastion until 2008, when Obama won the county by 21,000 votes. Both sides have put a lot of resources into Hamilton this time around, establishing elaborate ground game operations and pouring money into the Cincinnati media markets. Both campaigns predict a win in Hamilton.
For Obama, the key to winning Hamilton County will be African-American voter turnout, which played a huge role in his 2008 win. His campaign, working with Ohio's unions, has mobilized an aggressive field operation to turnout minority voters.
But Romney has one big advantage: Ohio Sen. Rob Portman. Portman's has a deep base and organization in Cincinnati, and has been unfailingly confident — at least publicly — that Romney can win in Hamilton County, and in Ohio. If Romney does pull it off, he will have the Ohio Senator to thank.
Cuyahoga County: Home to Cleveland, Cuyahoga County is Ohio's biggest county and a Democratic stronghold. Obama won the county, 69-30, in 2008, turning out 458,433 voters. This time around, he needs to maintain those margins — and probably even more raw votes — to cushion his losses elsewhere in the state.
Butler and Clermont Counties: Located in Ohio's deep-red southeast, these two counties are the Republican answer to Cuyahoga. McCain won Butler and Clermont by 39,311 and 30,948 votes, respectively. Romney is going to have to do a lot better than that to make up for Obama's advantage in Ohio's more populous urban centers.
Wood County, Sandusky County, and Ottawa County: Located in the northwest corner of Ohio, Wood, Sandusky, and Ottawa are three of the state's true swing counties. Bush won these counties by 53,168 in 2004, but Obama took the state by 54,464 votes in 2008. To hold on to his statewide margins, Obama needs to repeat that performance in Ohio's northeast.
To that end, the outlook is good for Obama in this region. Despite being largely white and rural, these exurban Toledo counties have disproportionately benefited from Obama's auto bailout (Chrysler is the region's largest employer.) Romney has made a last ditch attempt to change the narrative about the bailout with a new round of ads in the Toledo market, which falsely suggested Chrysler is moving its jobs overseas. But the ploy largely backfired, and could take its toll on Romney in this swing region.
Belmont and Jefferson Counties: Located in Ohio's southeast "coal country," Belmont and Jefferson handed Obama narrow victories in 2008 — by 50-47 and 49-48 margins, respectively — after going to Bush in 2004. As a result, they represent some of the best opportunities for Romney to take back votes that Obama won in the last cycle. While Belmont and Jefferson have relatively few votes — the counties cast about 70,000 votes combined in 2008 — that could be enough to swing a close race.
Now here are the other counties that could decide the election >
