TheStormExpert wrote:I thought that TC killing shear was only present during El Niño seasons?
TC killing shear is present most of the time in every June.
ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
TC killing shear is present most of the time in every June.
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TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
RL3AO wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:I thought that TC killing shear was only present during El Niño seasons?
TC killing shear is present most of the time in every June.
I guess that explains why the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are the only places you typically see TC development in June.
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TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
TheStormExpert wrote:RL3AO wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:I thought that TC killing shear was only present during El Niño seasons?
TC killing shear is present most of the time in every June.
I guess that explains why the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are the only places you typically see TC development in June.
Yep. Shear happens any month, any year, in any basin. The most infamous hurricane in United States history (Katrina) formed partially from the remnants of a tropical depression that was sheared to death in the central Atlantic in 2005.
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TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:RL3AO wrote:
TC killing shear is present most of the time in every June.
I guess that explains why the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are the only places you typically see TC development in June.
Yep. Shear happens any month, any year, in any basin. The most infamous hurricane in United States history (Katrina) formed partially from the remnants of a tropical depression that was sheared to death in the central Atlantic in 2005.
I understand shear happens year round but I was just wondering if having this much shear in the Caribbean in late June was normal. It's not everyday you see a developing TC in the Tropical Atlantic heading for the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
TheStormExpert wrote:TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:I guess that explains why the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are the only places you typically see TC development in June.
Yep. Shear happens any month, any year, in any basin. The most infamous hurricane in United States history (Katrina) formed partially from the remnants of a tropical depression that was sheared to death in the central Atlantic in 2005.
I understand shear happens year round but I was just wondering if having this much shear in the Caribbean in late June was normal. It's not everyday you see a developing TC in the Tropical Atlantic heading for the Caribbean.
Shear is actually running a hair above average in the Caribbean so far this season. But in general, yeah, it's unfavorable across most of the MDR in late June. PTC Two will be the second easternmost tropical storm on record if it's designated shortly, beat only by the 1933 Trinidad hurricane. We're witnessing a rarity.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Although the GFS does show below average Caribbean shear starting next week. Obviously subject to big changes.
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weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
NHC still not declaring this Tropical Storm Bret, although they do mention that there are 40mph winds, I guess they are going to wait for recon to get out there, overall tomorrow will be a very interesting day!
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
weathaguyry wrote:NHC still not declaring this Tropical Storm Bret, although they do mention that there are 40mph winds, I guess they are going to wait for recon to get out there, overall tomorrow will be a very interesting day!
When's the plane, afternoon?
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
No help from tonight's ASCAT pass , system is so small it will completely miss it 
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
NDG wrote:No help from tonight's ASCAT pass , system is so small it will completely miss it
It's all a technicality anyway with warnings going on. The impacts will be the same regardless.
A T2.5 is normally sufficient for declaration, but I think they are still a tad uncertain that there actually is a closed LLC to name it as Tropical Storm Bret.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Not sure what to make of the satellite appearance now--it looked like it was starting to organize an hour or so ago and now it's starting to look like nothing more than a convergence line with little to no spin, and the radar isn't helping much as that particular one is grainy that far out.
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1900hurricane
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Microwave hasn't convinced me to change my mind in thinking that 02L is a tropical cyclone.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Hammy wrote:Not sure what to make of the satellite appearance now--it looked like it was starting to organize an hour or so ago and now it's starting to look like nothing more than a convergence line with little to no spin, and the radar isn't helping much as that particular one is grainy that far out.
As i mentioned earlier the vertical stacking will be a possible problem. The new convection is building from the enhanced very condusive upper environment and the llc slightly out running it. It has the potential to deepen pretty quick regardless.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Hammy wrote:Not sure what to make of the satellite appearance now--it looked like it was starting to organize an hour or so ago and now it's starting to look like nothing more than a convergence line with little to no spin, and the radar isn't helping much as that particular one is grainy that far out.
Not seeing what your seeing, I see a organizing tropical cyclone. Take a look at the banding that has developed.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
1900hurricane wrote:Microwave hasn't convinced me to change my mind in thinking that 02L is a tropical cyclone.
Yeah all signs are pointing towards this being bret already. But the nhc will await a little more time on this convection because of its fast motion.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Bocadude85 wrote:Hammy wrote:Not sure what to make of the satellite appearance now--it looked like it was starting to organize an hour or so ago and now it's starting to look like nothing more than a convergence line with little to no spin, and the radar isn't helping much as that particular one is grainy that far out.
Not seeing what your seeing, I see a organizing tropical cyclone. Take a look at the banding that has developed.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif
The somewhat confusing convective pattern--it certainly seems less organized than a few hours ago. But the radar presentation isn't exactly helpful.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
If they wait till HH goes out to name this there might not be a bret. Either way impressive for june.
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TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:If they wait till HH goes out to name this there might not be a bret. Either way impressive for june.
That's one of the few downsides of this new Potential TC advisories thing IMO.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Models
0z GFS coming in stronger and showing a direct hit on Trinidad
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:If they wait till HH goes out to name this there might not be a bret. Either way impressive for june.
The new GFS has this strengthening through 30 hours, the HH may be out during this systems peak.
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