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WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!

 
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 01:45 AM
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WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
[link to www.financialarmageddon.com]


Financial Armageddon: 9 Years' Worth of Homes by Michael J. Panzner


-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------
9 Years' Worth of Homes

Posted: 24 Apr 2010 07:36 PM PDT

Economic theory has it that prices tend to rise when demand exceeds supply. But when the potential inventory of homes for sale by banks -- which is aside from the properties that homeowners and builders might also be looking to unload -- is equivalent to nine years' worth of demand, as detailed by Real Time Economics in "Number of the Week: 103 Months to Clear Housing Inventory," that suggests those who see signs of a recovery in the residential real estate market should probably be thinking about checking into rehab:

103: The number of months it would take to sell off all the foreclosed homes in banks’ possession, plus all the homes likely to end up there over the next couple years, at the current rate of sales.

How much should we worry about a new leg down in the housing market? If the number of foreclosed homes piling up at banks is any indication, there’s ample reason for concern.

As of March, banks had an inventory of about 1.1 million foreclosed homes, up 20% from a year earlier, according to estimates from LPS Applied Analytics. Another 4.8 million mortgage holders were at least 60 days behind on their payments or in the foreclosure process, meaning their homes were well on their way to the inventory pile. That “shadow inventory” was up 30% from a year earlier.

Based on the rate at which banks have been selling those foreclosed homes over the past few months, all that inventory, real and shadow, would take 103 months to unload. That’s nearly nine years. Of course, banks could pick up the pace of sales, but the added supply of distressed homes would weigh heavily on prices — and thus boost their losses.
Doomer

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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
Maybe they should hire Goldman Sachs.

rimshot
"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing"
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 01:54 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
I think they should let anyone who can afford the payments on them to just move in and buy it by part of their payment going to the purchase of the house, that would get allot off the market and allow people who can afford the monthly payments but not the downpayment and closing costs to own a home.
Then at least the house is being lived in and taken care of, instead of just letting them sit there and rot.
CestLaVie

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04/25/2010 01:56 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
They will never give them back. Our time is dwindling, the time of the feudal lords is at hand.
Truth, with no sugar. Love,p
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 01:56 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
That's why they need to get the prices down and start clearing inventory.

But the Politicians don't want the banks to suffer, so they're keeping prices up with their stupid 8K "incentives", etc.

The pols would rather keep you homeless and/or in overpriced homes than hurt their Bankster Buddies.

We've got a problem here, fellow Americans. Our elected polticians are on the side of Wall Street derivative traders and the really big Banks.

They could give a sh*t about us.

If you didn't already suspect that....
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 01:59 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
I think they should let anyone who can afford the payments on them to just move in and buy it by part of their payment going to the purchase of the house, that would get allot off the market and allow people who can afford the monthly payments but not the downpayment and closing costs to own a home.
Then at least the house is being lived in and taken care of, instead of just letting them sit there and rot.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 925360


No. If they do that, you'll just be a slave to the Bank for the rest of your life. You will never OWN the house.

The law of supply and demand means prices need to plummet in this situation.

But, I expect that this Congress would rather bulldoze homes to bring supply down than let prices fall to where they should be.
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 02:00 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
Solution?

Jewish lightning!

just saying......
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 02:01 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
Thats ok we are gonna vote all of them out pretty soon...no more family politicians who get elected just because a family member was elected to an office, no more corporate and union lovers...no more richies...who don't know what its like to be an average person here and no more Socialists or Communists trying to destroy us!
The people are taking the Republic back..despite them.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
If house prices tumble, it will no longer be profitable to build new houses. House

The housing market


I can't possibly see how the housing market will ever pick up.
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 02:06 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
The only solution is to fill the houses and get them off the market..even if the banks have to take a loss..something is better than nothing..once the housing market has evened out then new homes can be built again.
Like i said before, put people in those houses and get them off the market, there are hundreds of thousands of people out there with ok credit but not enough money for the downpayment or closing costs..put them in those houses ..they can afford the monthly payments and would take care of them ..especially new home owners who havent been able to buy a home.
If they let the houses sit there and rot then the bank can't sell them and they lose all the money anyway..least this way the bank can recoup a big portion of the money owed on the huose and everybody's happy.
femme flambe

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04/25/2010 02:07 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
[link to www.financialarmageddon.com]

but the added supply of distressed homes would weigh heavily on prices — and thus boost their losses.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 905800



And that's where the truth lies, whoever is holding these properties do not want to flood the market so the market price drop (AS IT SHOULD) would not depress it further.


Hence no deals, even though there is 9 years of inventory.


And how does it feel to be paying for it?

Last Edited by femme flambe on 04/25/2010 02:08 AM
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Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 02:20 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
there are hundreds of thousands of people out there with ok credit but not enough money for the downpayment or closing costs..put them in those houses ..they can afford the monthly payments and would take care of them ..especially new home owners who havent been able to buy a home.
If they let the houses sit there and rot then the bank can't sell them and they lose all the money anyway..least this way the bank can recoup a big portion of the money owed on the huose and everybody's happy.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 925360


Yeah, you're plan is great for the Banks, but sucks for the people.

Why would you "make payments " on an overpriced house from here to eternity when you could just buy it for 80% off and own free and clear??

But, this Congress will probably adopt your debt-slave plan. It'd be a windfall for the Banks and Derivative Traders.
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 02:40 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
They could give a sh*t about us.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 910284


Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 02:40 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
like dimitri orlov says, russia survived their collapse in part due to no one lost their homes. the government just signed them over to the people living in them. they also still had production capacity. we are homeless with no factories or farms to work.
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 02:44 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
That's why they need to get the prices down and start clearing inventory.

But the Politicians don't want the banks to suffer, so they're keeping prices up with their stupid 8K "incentives", etc.

The pols would rather keep you homeless and/or in overpriced homes than hurt their Bankster Buddies.

We've got a problem here, fellow Americans. Our elected polticians are on the side of Wall Street derivative traders and the really big Banks.

They could give a sh*t about us.

If you didn't already suspect that....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 910284


Your dead on. But our "ELECTED" politicians work for the banks. They hop around like little bunnies. One day they work for Goldman, the next they work for the government. And then back to Goldman. And we call it democracy.
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 02:52 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
Thats ok we are gonna vote all of them out pretty soon...no more family politicians who get elected just because a family member was elected to an office, no more corporate and union lovers...no more richies...who don't know what its like to be an average person here and no more Socialists or Communists trying to destroy us!
The people are taking the Republic back..despite them.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 925360





norespect
Olibow

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04/25/2010 02:53 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
I think everyone should start squatting in the empty houses. Possession is 9/10's and then you can start services and they still have to evict you.... better than being homeless....

Let's beat them at their own game, and then start a cottage industry of house sitters that live in the other houses so squatters don't stay there. problem solved.....
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9teen.47™

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04/25/2010 02:58 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
Hence no deals, even though there is 9 years of inventory.


And how does it feel to be paying for it?
 Quoting: femme flambe

1rof1 I'm renting. But being an OAP the council pays the landlord.

Last Edited by 9teen.47™ on 04/25/2010 03:00 AM
Zec 12:3 And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people: all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though all the people of the earth be gathered together against it.
Psa 9:17 The wicked shall be turned into hell, [and] all the nations that forget God.
Jer 6:2 I have likened the daughter of Zion to a comely and delicate [woman].
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Geode nli
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04/25/2010 03:16 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
It is even worse than all of you are saying, and the reason is because of the way that the Federal Reserve system works with regard to leverage. The banks get 90% of their funds from the Federal Reserve at a 10 to 1 multiple of the amount of cash they have in their financial institution!!! If a bank has 10 million dollars of deposits in their bank, then the Federal Reserve will loan them 100 million dollars at prime interest. The bank can then loan out 90 million dollars at prime plus a few percent extra which enables the bank to make let's say 3% net profit on 90 million dollars that they only received due to their 10 million net which existed in their bank from depositors. Thus, they are able to profit 3% of 90 million, which is $2.7 million which is 27% net return on their $10 million. That is the power of leverage, and is the power that bankers utilize to make fortunes on the backs of us all!!!

Leverage can cut both ways however, and inverse leverage is threating to bankrupt the whole financial system due to their unconscienable GREED!!! The real problem that is causing the bankers to sit on their "inventory" of bank owned properties(REO's) is that once they sell an under-water house for a hundred thousand dollars less than what the loan was on their books, the leverage instantly reverses and it is stacked ten to one against them. They then are qualified for $1 million less from the Fed, and they have to come up with another actual $100,000 in deposits to remain solvent. Multiply this times the number of homes on the banks books, and the amount underwater that those homes are and you can see why most banks now would be bankrupt and the FDIC auditors would be forced to close them down. But guess what, the FDIC is out of $, and if most of the banks were insolvent also then the FDIC couldn't put together these shotgun marriages where a sick bank is made to "buy" a bankrupt one. The banks are not being made to "mark to market" the actual value that they could realize by selling the asset they are holding on their books at often twice or more what they could sell it for. Market prices would crater if they were made to sell them for what they are worth because there are so many of them with only a few buyers out there ready to buy, even if they could afford it. Huge (and growing) numbers of people are waiting until after confirmation that the bottom of the RE plunge has been realized before putting their hard earned savings into a home that could gobble up their downpayment and go underwater a year or two from now. It's a dwindling spiral, the worse it gets, the worser it will get, until it reachest the worsest it will get which will probably be a very long time from now.

The thing that scares governments most of all is the fact that property taxes make up a huge amount of their revenues at the city, county, and state levels, and as property values plunge, so does their revenue. Most of their beaurocratic workers, and their pension plans are funded off of this tax base that is plunging since the tax is a percentage of the properties assessed value. If homes values drop in half, then their revenues drop in half, which means that services will have to be cut which means laying off a bunch of govt. workers, which means that they can't afford their homes, etc., etc.

The banks are living a lie and just hoping against hope that there will be a recovery and the housing markets will recover, and that underwater homes will rise enough for the banks to get out from under the inverted pyramid that has crushed them. Until not that long ago, mark to market has always been the way financial institutions were required to report their financial status on profit and loss statements and SEC documents. If banks were made to do that now most all of them would have to close their doors and the whole economy would come to a screeching halt!!! So don't hold your breath for wholesale/going out of business types of discounts to come to the housing market anytime soon, at least as regards REO/bank-owned homes.
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 03:57 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
just do like us and let anyone from anywhere buy.
there are a lot of rich china men out there ready to buy your country- even houses.
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 05:13 AM
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Irdoooomed

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04/25/2010 05:26 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
I think they should let anyone who can afford the payments on them to just move in and buy it by part of their payment going to the purchase of the house, that would get allot off the market and allow people who can afford the monthly payments but not the downpayment and closing costs to own a home.
Then at least the house is being lived in and taken care of, instead of just letting them sit there and rot.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 925360


Why would they do that? It's better to rent those properties and flip them for the insurance money.
Twenty grand dood, it's a lot of money!

Recently homosexuals have been making anti christian threads. Think about it.
TEXAS UNCENSORED, nli
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04/25/2010 06:47 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
I think they should let anyone who can afford the payments on them to just move in and buy it by part of their payment going to the purchase of the house, that would get allot off the market and allow people who can afford the monthly payments but not the downpayment and closing costs to own a home.
Then at least the house is being lived in and taken care of, instead of just letting them sit there and rot.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 925360



That requires common sense. There is no indication that the banking system or Wall Street has any of that. If they ever did, it was probably sold in and split into so many pieces that finding it requires too much time working instead of watching porn.

But, that is just my common sense opinion of course.
Andromeda

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04/25/2010 06:50 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
like dimitri orlov says, russia survived their collapse in part due to no one lost their homes. the government just signed them over to the people living in them. they also still had production capacity. we are homeless with no factories or farms to work.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 951279


Here's where I deeply disagree with the bank bailouts.

We should have bailed out homeowners, not banks.

The banks just fold when they go bust.

But homeowners support the real economy and if they are under water for 10 years, so is the whole economy.

So we have the worst of both world now.

(1) we have zombie banks -- sick banks that don't lend because their balance sheets are full of inflated derivatives that actually have no value and that they can't sell -- and (2) credit-strapped, debt-laden homeowners who can't spend for years and years.

Last Edited by Andromeda on 04/25/2010 06:50 AM
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 07:15 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
I think everyone should start squatting in the empty houses. Possession is 9/10's and then you can start services and they still have to evict you.... better than being homeless....

Let's beat them at their own game, and then start a cottage industry of house sitters that live in the other houses so squatters don't stay there. problem solved.....
 Quoting: Olibow


+1,000
Nailer45

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04/25/2010 08:16 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
this info should bring house prices down.

Housing prices at this time are way over inflated.
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Digital Rapture

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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
Not in Florida!!! We are leading the Nation in home sales. IMO, the mess started in FL.
dookie stain
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
I knew there was a change in the air when foreclosed homes were boarded up instead of listing showing them.....
Falconia

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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
It is even worse than all of you are saying, and the reason is because of the way that the Federal Reserve system works with regard to leverage. The banks get 90% of their funds from the Federal Reserve at a 10 to 1 multiple of the amount of cash they have in their financial institution!!! If a bank has 10 million dollars of deposits in their bank, then the Federal Reserve will loan them 100 million dollars at prime interest. The bank can then loan out 90 million dollars at prime plus a few percent extra which enables the bank to make let's say 3% net profit on 90 million dollars that they only received due to their 10 million net which existed in their bank from depositors. Thus, they are able to profit 3% of 90 million, which is $2.7 million which is 27% net return on their $10 million. That is the power of leverage, and is the power that bankers utilize to make fortunes on the backs of us all!!!

Leverage can cut both ways however, and inverse leverage is threating to bankrupt the whole financial system due to their unconscienable GREED!!! The real problem that is causing the bankers to sit on their "inventory" of bank owned properties(REO's) is that once they sell an under-water house for a hundred thousand dollars less than what the loan was on their books, the leverage instantly reverses and it is stacked ten to one against them. They then are qualified for $1 million less from the Fed, and they have to come up with another actual $100,000 in deposits to remain solvent. Multiply this times the number of homes on the banks books, and the amount underwater that those homes are and you can see why most banks now would be bankrupt and the FDIC auditors would be forced to close them down. But guess what, the FDIC is out of $, and if most of the banks were insolvent also then the FDIC couldn't put together these shotgun marriages where a sick bank is made to "buy" a bankrupt one. The banks are not being made to "mark to market" the actual value that they could realize by selling the asset they are holding on their books at often twice or more what they could sell it for. Market prices would crater if they were made to sell them for what they are worth because there are so many of them with only a few buyers out there ready to buy, even if they could afford it. Huge (and growing) numbers of people are waiting until after confirmation that the bottom of the RE plunge has been realized before putting their hard earned savings into a home that could gobble up their downpayment and go underwater a year or two from now. It's a dwindling spiral, the worse it gets, the worser it will get, until it reachest the worsest it will get which will probably be a very long time from now.

The thing that scares governments most of all is the fact that property taxes make up a huge amount of their revenues at the city, county, and state levels, and as property values plunge, so does their revenue. Most of their beaurocratic workers, and their pension plans are funded off of this tax base that is plunging since the tax is a percentage of the properties assessed value. If homes values drop in half, then their revenues drop in half, which means that services will have to be cut which means laying off a bunch of govt. workers, which means that they can't afford their homes, etc., etc.

The banks are living a lie and just hoping against hope that there will be a recovery and the housing markets will recover, and that underwater homes will rise enough for the banks to get out from under the inverted pyramid that has crushed them. Until not that long ago, mark to market has always been the way financial institutions were required to report their financial status on profit and loss statements and SEC documents. If banks were made to do that now most all of them would have to close their doors and the whole economy would come to a screeching halt!!! So don't hold your breath for wholesale/going out of business types of discounts to come to the housing market anytime soon, at least as regards REO/bank-owned homes.
 Quoting: Geode nli 906497

bump


BINGO!
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 08:29 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
9 years?
He's just plain wrong.
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2010 08:33 AM
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Re: WTF !! NINE YEARS TO CLEAR HOUSING INVENTORY !!
this info should bring house prices down.

Housing prices at this time are way over inflated.
 Quoting: Nailer45

I agree.

Why keep the market over inflated? No one will buy a house that could lose value. Let the bottom drop, then people will buy! OMG, if people were stupid enough to want an over priced house without using common sense that the bubble would burst, then let them keep paying for the damn thing.

you have to allow for supply and demand to take over or we will hit a low so low it will make Detroit look like a joke. Long term investors/owners will see that money and value return if they can just suck it up.

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