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I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.

 
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05/03/2010 03:55 PM

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I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
Ok after reading as much as possible from various sources...and after listening to this interview?...I think I have this figured out....

Ok so the rig crew was involved with their work of finishing off the well...drilling was long done...they had tested the Blow Out Preventer Stack and it passed.

They were in the process of filling the riser with seawater...or had...to displace the drill fluid out...so the tube heading up was full of seawater...

After testing the BOP stack, having it pass...they reopen the BOP which is really just giant complex shut off valve so they can finish...

At that time when they open it?....they get a huge blast of gas pressure...methane gas mostly. So this is not SO uncommon, but apparently this was a real BIG one....so what happens is as follows...

The gas pressure launches the water in the tube up to the rig...this fits with the mudinmyblood guy account which I find credible...the audio guy says the same thing....huge water gusher launches up.

So the rig crew deals as best they can with that and either it blew off the surface gear or they vented it and water blasts up...also rains down as Mr ATV describes...

So next comes the methane gas after the water is blasted out...it floods the rig with explosive gas....there are detectors that look for this...either that, or the rig crew knew it was coming and shut down the running main generators...went to battery power...gas is flooding out and they are either venting it off until the pressure subsides...or it's just doing that because whatever valves in the rig are blown off....but at that point?

The emergency generators kick on and BOOM...explosion...after that?...everything is a cluster fuck...the BOP never got the kill signal or could shut off...but the real core of this disaster?

THE EMERGENCY GENERATORS SHOULD NEVER HAVE COME ON....They are supposed to have gas detectors that prevent this, but they DID come on....

and THAT is what caused the explosion....

It fits with everything eyewitnesses say...the timing of events and everything that was going on at the time...

The ATV guys account:

[link to www.mudinmyblood.net]

Mark Levin interview with an oil rig guy who says he was there.

[link to www.marklevinshow.com]

Neither one connect the dots to each other or say the reason was the Emergency Gens kicking on when they should not have...the engineer guy says all the gear is supposed to be "sparkless"...but I will bet that focus is shifted to that generator system being the true cause and whether all parts were as they are supposed to be etc etc....

Makes sense to me now...although it still does NOT explain why the BOP did not slam closed like it was supposed to...or how the hell the Emergency system, did turn on...or why it detonated the gas....all these things WERE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE POSSIBLE....

Last Edited by SHR on 05/03/2010 06:30 PM
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Hand_of_Man

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05/03/2010 03:58 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
bsflag

Oh I'm just kidding. Everything seems to fit and makes sense even though I didn't read through everything thoroughly.
Jonesy

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05/03/2010 03:59 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
so what about the supposed 2nd rig that overturned?
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Freethinker

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05/03/2010 03:59 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
Could be. The only issue I have with your analysis is the BOP. It is supposed to detect and shut off blow outs. It is also supposed to fail closed, not fail open.
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05/03/2010 04:01 PM

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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
bsflag

Oh I'm just kidding. Everything seems to fit and makes sense even though I didn't read through everything thoroughly.
 Quoting: Hand_of_Man

It makes sense as far as the sequence of events, but it makes NO sense as to how it was possible...

One thing for sure...at least 3 things happened that should have been impossible to happen...

1) the BOP should have slammed closed, it didn't. And since they closed some today?...apparently it's still pretty intact.

2) the Emergency Gens NEVER should have came on.

3) the emergency gens should not have detonated the gas even if they did come on.
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Anonymous Coward
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05/03/2010 04:02 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
I have to agree 100%, of everything I have read it sounds as if that was the cause. Thanks for putting all in one nicely written condensed page.

My main concern right now is not how it happened, but how to stop it. I have come up with one possible solution, but don't know how long it would take to build until they can tell what is left down there to work with.

I am afraid there has already been tons of erosion occur.
ZTE

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05/03/2010 04:02 PM

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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
So basically, we need to figure out where that initial spark came from, which set off the gas. And to add to that what the hell went wrong with those generators (if they did create a spark). I guess it could have come from something as simple as dropping a wrench, but I haven't read as much as you have.




However, I've pretty much ruled out the North Koreans.
If you can justify killing one man, you can justify killing every man.

The Greatest Lie is the one never told, but assumed.

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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
Could be. The only issue I have with your analysis is the BOP. It is supposed to detect and shut off blow outs. It is also supposed to fail closed, not fail open.
 Quoting: Freethinker

Listen to that interview...I find it very credible....the guy there said they had tested it and it passed...that makes sense as to where they were in the process....but when they opened it back up after testing?....it unleashed the gas under pressure and THEN failed to operate...THAT makes no sense whatsoever...no sense that an operational piece of equiptment they just tested doesn't work?....ALL OF IT?....it's 6 stories tall with at least 8 rams and they ALL FAIL?....how the fuck does THAT happen....
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
I have to agree 100%, of everything I have read it sounds as if that was the cause. Thanks for putting all in one nicely written condensed page.

My main concern right now is not how it happened, but how to stop it. I have come up with one possible solution, but don't know how long it would take to build until they can tell what is left down there to work with.

I am afraid there has already been tons of erosion occur.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 792204



exactly.. everybody wants to speculate as to how it happened.. focus energy on how to stop it.. odds are you'll never know exactly what happened.. depends on how gullible you are to believe what they tell you..
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Anonymous Coward
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05/03/2010 04:06 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
what does it all mean?
TruthHurts

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05/03/2010 04:07 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
SHR, are you suggesting that there was sabotage on the rig? Or are you just trying to connect the dots to how the accident occured. My brain isn't at all wired towards engineering, so could you or someone else put it into even simpler terms :) :sheep:
Freethinker

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05/03/2010 04:09 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
Could be. The only issue I have with your analysis is the BOP. It is supposed to detect and shut off blow outs. It is also supposed to fail closed, not fail open.

Listen to that interview...I find it very credible....the guy there said they had tested it and it passed...that makes sense as to where they were in the process....but when they opened it back up after testing?....it unleashed the gas under pressure and THEN failed to operate...THAT makes no sense whatsoever...no sense that an operational piece of equiptment they just tested doesn't work?....ALL OF IT?....it's 6 stories tall with at least 8 rams and they ALL FAIL?....how the fuck does THAT happen....
 Quoting: SHR

exactly. I would be interested in knowing what kind of operational tests were run on the tree. A cascading failure like this is best explained as conspiracy.
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
So basically, we need to figure out where that initial spark came from, which set off the gas. And to add to that what the hell went wrong with those generators (if they did create a spark). I guess it could have come from something as simple as dropping a wrench, but I haven't read as much as you have.




However, I've pretty much ruled out the North Koreans.
 Quoting: ZTE

The ATV guy says, "The emergency generators kicked on and BOOM, all she wrote"...I find that pretty credible...he doesn't seem to have a real dog in the hunt other than just being in the wrong place at the wrong time...and his first video IS bp-109...as he says it is...and these rigs have a ton of sites about fishing around them...so this is pretty common thing...big balls to take a fairly small boat out that far...but apparently that is not too uncommon...very risky seeing how the gulf can kick up out of nowhere, but he may have more balls than brains....which also isn't that un-common....

Last Edited by SHR on 05/03/2010 04:10 PM
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END_TIME_PROPHET

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05/03/2010 04:09 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
hf
you are being tested....
remain calm...
Anonymous Coward
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05/03/2010 04:10 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
I have to agree 100%, of everything I have read it sounds as if that was the cause. Thanks for putting all in one nicely written condensed page.

My main concern right now is not how it happened, but how to stop it. I have come up with one possible solution, but don't know how long it would take to build until they can tell what is left down there to work with.

I am afraid there has already been tons of erosion occur.



exactly.. everybody wants to speculate as to how it happened.. focus energy on how to stop it.. odds are you'll never know exactly what happened.. depends on how gullible you are to believe what they tell you..
 Quoting: Jonesy

The main problem I have, on the limited information available, is if there is truly 20,000 lbs. of pressure pushing the oil out.

I need to get in contact with BP and throw my theory out, no charge, just want to save the gulf.
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05/03/2010 04:11 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
It makes sense as far as the sequence of events, but it makes NO sense as to how it was possible...

One thing for sure...at least 3 things happened that should have been impossible to happen...

1) the BOP should have slammed closed, it didn't. And since they closed some today?...apparently it's still pretty intact.

2) the Emergency Gens NEVER should have came on.

3) the emergency gens should not have detonated the gas even if they did come on.
 Quoting: SHR

The BOP series of malfunctions is still puzzling to me.
Too many coincidences all at once.

Good job SHR.
Jonesy

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05/03/2010 04:11 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
With Haiti earthquake and Katrina plus other significant hurricanes, maybe include baja earthquake... and this gigantic problem.. you could say someone or something is focusing a lot of energy on this area. Wrath of God? coincidence?
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Jonesy

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05/03/2010 04:14 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
I have to agree 100%, of everything I have read it sounds as if that was the cause. Thanks for putting all in one nicely written condensed page.

My main concern right now is not how it happened, but how to stop it. I have come up with one possible solution, but don't know how long it would take to build until they can tell what is left down there to work with.

I am afraid there has already been tons of erosion occur.



exactly.. everybody wants to speculate as to how it happened.. focus energy on how to stop it.. odds are you'll never know exactly what happened.. depends on how gullible you are to believe what they tell you..

The main problem I have, on the limited information available, is if there is truly 20,000 lbs. of pressure pushing the oil out.

I need to get in contact with BP and throw my theory out, no charge, just want to save the gulf.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 792204



With all that pressure forcing oil out so fast and the weight of water on top theres got to be merit to the idea/theory that a void is/will form and potentially collapse sea floor... tsunami? quakes?
Si vis pacem, para bellum
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05/03/2010 04:15 PM

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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
SHR, are you suggesting that there was sabotage on the rig? Or are you just trying to connect the dots to how the accident occured. My brain isn't at all wired towards engineering, so could you or someone else put it into even simpler terms :) :sheep:
 Quoting: TruthHurts

I think this explains WHAT happened...as far as the sequence of events.

It not does not explain how...I think at least 3 things that must have happened are...or should have been...virtually impossible.

If it was sabotaged?....whomever sure as hell knew what they were doing and access to critical systems and also had done planning and set some things up.

If it was say criminal neglagence?....they put parts where they would set of a fairly complicated sequence and take advantage of that....I just don't transocean doing that.....this rig made them more money working than sunk...

There are however other parties that would benefit from this...
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Andromeda

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05/03/2010 04:17 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
You have good points.

Why would anyone want generators running in an area flooded with gas?

You can't plan on anything but that turning out really badly.

It's hard to believe generators were supposed to come on.
ZTE

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05/03/2010 04:19 PM

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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
However, I've pretty much ruled out the North Koreans.

The ATV guy says, "The emergency generators kicked on and BOOM, all she wrote"...I find that pretty credible...he doesn't seem to have a real dog in the hunt other than just being in the wrong place at the wrong time...and his first video IS bp-109...as he says it is...and these rigs have a ton of sites about fishing around them...so this is pretty common thing...big balls to take a fairly small boat out that far...but apparently that is not too uncommon...very risky seeing how the gulf can kick up out of nowhere, but he may have more balls than brains....which also isn't that un-common....
 Quoting: SHR



I interview offshore fishermen (in the Gulf) weekly for newspapers and magazines, and they always fish off the oil rigs. None of the captains I know were fishing off that rig that day, but I know they would be very reliable in telling what happened (since they are there every day). I'd trust their descriptions over anyone else's personally, because they have nothing to hide/gain.
If you can justify killing one man, you can justify killing every man.

The Greatest Lie is the one never told, but assumed.

History isn't a measure of our successes, but the compilation of our mistakes.
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05/03/2010 04:20 PM

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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
It makes sense as far as the sequence of events, but it makes NO sense as to how it was possible...

One thing for sure...at least 3 things happened that should have been impossible to happen...

1) the BOP should have slammed closed, it didn't. And since they closed some today?...apparently it's still pretty intact.

2) the Emergency Gens NEVER should have came on.

3) the emergency gens should not have detonated the gas even if they did come on.

The BOP series of malfunctions is still puzzling to me.
Too many coincidences all at once.

Good job SHR.
 Quoting: BatBoy

Too many coincidences all at once.....indeed.

And how that whole monster sized assembly failed all at once right after being tested?....it's just TOO suspect...and they can close the annular rams NOW?....how the hell does THAT make sense....
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Anonymous Coward
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05/03/2010 04:22 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
at 2:55 in part2 of the audio interview the guy has a freudian slip ! I suggest you hear it again.

A bomb was planted imho.
Andromeda

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05/03/2010 04:23 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
Apparently, multiple failures... some of which could have been anticipated...

"The failure of the "shear ram," the set of steel blades intended to slash through a pipe at the top of a well and close off the flow of crude, should not have surprised BP or the corporations that work for it. Eight years ago, the Minerals Management Service found that 50 percent of the shear rams tested failed. So calling the failure of the "last resort device" an accident is like calling the damage caused by a drunken driver an accident. Failure to take the proper precautions is not an accident; it's negligence."

[link to www.cnn.com]

Poor anticipation of all scenarios, high-failure items used as fail-safes, plus the fact that this is a huge oil field at great depth and pressure pushing the limits of our technology.

Just like with the financial meltdown, there's stupidity and greed in the experts who we trust too much.

And it would be not at all surprising if it turns out there's some criminal insider crap going on.
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
However, I've pretty much ruled out the North Koreans.

The ATV guy says, "The emergency generators kicked on and BOOM, all she wrote"...I find that pretty credible...he doesn't seem to have a real dog in the hunt other than just being in the wrong place at the wrong time...and his first video IS bp-109...as he says it is...and these rigs have a ton of sites about fishing around them...so this is pretty common thing...big balls to take a fairly small boat out that far...but apparently that is not too uncommon...very risky seeing how the gulf can kick up out of nowhere, but he may have more balls than brains....which also isn't that un-common....



I interview offshore fishermen (in the Gulf) weekly for newspapers and magazines, and they always fish off the oil rigs. None of the captains I know were fishing off that rig that day, but I know they would be very reliable in telling what happened (since they are there every day). I'd trust their descriptions over anyone else's personally, because they have nothing to hide/gain.
 Quoting: ZTE

The description that guy gave strikes me as credible...like you said...doesn't have a gain/lose dog in the hunt...he also isn't pretentious or claiming wild feats....just this happened, then this, don't really know wtf was going on but we hauled ass and boom when we heard and saw the gens kick on...
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Anonymous Coward
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05/03/2010 04:26 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
I have to agree 100%, of everything I have read it sounds as if that was the cause. Thanks for putting all in one nicely written condensed page.

My main concern right now is not how it happened, but how to stop it. I have come up with one possible solution, but don't know how long it would take to build until they can tell what is left down there to work with.

I am afraid there has already been tons of erosion occur.



exactly.. everybody wants to speculate as to how it happened.. focus energy on how to stop it.. odds are you'll never know exactly what happened.. depends on how gullible you are to believe what they tell you..

The main problem I have, on the limited information available, is if there is truly 20,000 lbs. of pressure pushing the oil out.

I need to get in contact with BP and throw my theory out, no charge, just want to save the gulf.



With all that pressure forcing oil out so fast and the weight of water on top theres got to be merit to the idea/theory that a void is/will form and potentially collapse sea floor... tsunami? quakes?
 Quoting: Jonesy

As the pressure is released, at a much higher rate than anticipated for smaller adjustments to the formation, that is a theory that could be plausable. This is new territory for pressure and depths. Might just be out of mans league.
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05/03/2010 04:27 PM

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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
Apparently, multiple failures... some of which could have been anticipated...

"The failure of the "shear ram," the set of steel blades intended to slash through a pipe at the top of a well and close off the flow of crude, should not have surprised BP or the corporations that work for it. Eight years ago, the Minerals Management Service found that 50 percent of the shear rams tested failed. So calling the failure of the "last resort device" an accident is like calling the damage caused by a drunken driver an accident. Failure to take the proper precautions is not an accident; it's negligence."

[link to www.cnn.com]

Poor anticipation of all scenarios, high-failure items used as fail-safes, plus the fact that this is a huge oil field at great depth and pressure pushing the limits of our technology.

Just like with the financial meltdown, there's stupidity and greed in the experts who we trust too much.

And it would be not at all surprising if it turns out there's some criminal insider crap going on.
 Quoting: Andromeda

50% might fail...but they have at least FOUR of them in this stack...maybe 8....but it's made to be redundant because in the harsh conditions not all are going to cut it....but all of them?....I fail to believe they can ALL fail....


and CNN has a total agenda...I doubt most of them that are screaming eviorment rape for oil money! ahhhh!...can work a frikkin Plier....
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Anonymous Coward
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05/03/2010 04:29 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
Occam's Razor...springs to mind. The simplest explanation is usually the right one (paraphrased). Something fishy here.
Madigan

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05/03/2010 04:32 PM

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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
You should pin this. I want to follow this and see if anyone else on that rig speaks out. I get what you're saying...and I do believe that there is more than meets the eye here.
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
at 2:55 in part2 of the audio interview the guy has a freudian slip ! I suggest you hear it again.

A bomb was planted imho.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 960004

Wouldn';t be the first time someone describes something as a "Floating bomb"...or uses the word bomb to desribe such a thing, but he does say "when the bomb went off"...then clarifies that he meant the gas as a bomb....people can decide for themselves on that one....but I'm not ruling out Sabotage by any means at all yet.....too much shit went wrong all at once for this NOT to be highly suspect IMO.
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05/03/2010 04:33 PM
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Re: I think I have this Horizon disaster figured out...and it's NOT JUST a true blowout.
So basically, we need to figure out where that initial spark came from, which set off the gas. And to add to that what the hell went wrong with those generators (if they did create a spark). I guess it could have come from something as simple as dropping a wrench, but I haven't read as much as you have.




However, I've pretty much ruled out the North Koreans.
 Quoting: ZTE

Dude, you got a light?

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