BREAKING - Oil Flow is 6.8-38.1 million gal/day - MSM NOW REPORTS FIGURES CLOSER TO THIS AS WELL

Then why don't you enlighten us with your knowledge, lol.

Please, show us. This thread isn't about name calling, at least for me it isn't. it is about learning.

I specifically asked to be debunked. But it has to be solid math, no emotional swing allowed to debunk this.

Hard core numbers, or else your post is fail.

They have opened the abyss..

Beam me up Scotty.

Dude, you have no clue. As to how you can judge my level of sympathy towards mother nature by the preceeding post is ridiculous!

Haven't BP come out and said that the flow is being restricted by some of the blowout preventers functioning, and others that have failed? That kind of throws all calculations out the window because we don't know at what rate its really coming out (or what diameter the leak is). I highly doubt its the full 2 foot pipe blasting out oil. If it is, I would concede that your calculations are accurate given the numbers we have access to.

Does anyone know the formation pressure were the gas migrated from? and the permeability factor of that formation, the depletion rate, and ill give it a shot. Doing some reseach of offset wells now, i want to get to the bottom of this, I dont care if Im wrong, I just cant see 480million gal/day as right.

Ive said in previous posts that Crap is right!!!...i did the math equations myself...i dont know Crap i could BS him by the outrageus numbers he shown, first i didnt believe it...but the variables are correct and the math too, so i agree with his conclusion.

To those who say that and i quote..."if it was spilling 480 million gallons a day it wouldnt hit the shores in no time", i say to them, since the first day they start to trey to fix the leak the threw chemichals (lots of them) to the ocean, the objective was to disperse the most amount of oil and sunk it, this means that are millions of gallons of oil on the top of the sea floor (dont forget the methane gas) and the pressure is building, they dont know what they are going to do...if the "top hat" solution fails (i think it will fail), in the next few days thousands of sea animals will hit the shores dead, and the probability of a sea explosion to ocurre is very high (in my opinon).

This Thread still hasnt be debunked!!!!!!

My applause to Crap for telling the truth!!!

Ok they were using ~14ppg mud, and this was creating enough hydrostatice pressure to hold the formation gas in place. They displaced the riser reducing the hydrostatic pressure casuing the well to kick. The TVD ( true vertical depth is around maybe 10000ft, MD (measured depth is 35000ft - horizontal well)
HP (hydrostaic Pressure) = MD (mud density)xo.o52xTVD
=14x0.052x10000 = 7280psi approx, so the formation pressure were the gas came form would be under this otherwise the well would of kick while drilling with that density mud. SO maybe do you calculations at 7000psi.

sorry 35000ft from surface ~ 20000psi

even 20000psi seems very high, offset wells use 12ppg mud to 10000ft TVD, giving ~ 6200PSI formation pressure.

The BOP is said to have only partially closed so it is being choked off anyway.

Hey guys, here it is let me lay it out for you and it's not pretty but this is it from my neighbor the "Roughneck" who just got back from the new drilling rig home for a few days. He says this as fact as to what is going on, no B.S. here...That there is a lot of oil leaking! No denying that it is in the 25,000 barrels a day range at this time. or roughly over a million gallons a day! (Huge) This is 5X the official amount given. He said this is what other wells in the area are yielding and that there is no reason for this to be any less. The "Off-Set" well in 60-70 days will take this leak and perform as the main offset that is needed. He said the technology is precise and that this has been done before.
Now for the bad news... Right now the leak is 80-90 miles away from it to be taken into the strong current that is carried down around FLorida's Keys and up the Atlantic coastline...if that happens say goodbye to all those pretty pristine beaches for a good while and other ecological destruction we haven't seen there... He goes on to say we have been extremely lucky so far with the current but watch out things could change.

This Thread Should Be Pinned Until It Isnt Debunked!!!

Hats off to OP who is separating emotion from logical math in this thread. Evidence of this logic will begin washing ashore en masse and the slanted MSM coverage until then will leave many people saying, "I didn't know it was this bad." These numbers seem legit.

This is truly sickening and heart breaking. Especially when one considers that our dependence on oil is driven by a global economy, not clean technology. We have had (suppressed) alternatives for decades.

Embarrassed to be human right now. Gaia, my prayers go out to you.

Well, I consider it debunked given no one else is saying it. There's no way a GLP'er would suddenly discover this, when you have no one out there in the field trying to claim these kind of numbers. There's too many that would be trying to independently verify how much oil is leaking not to come up with similar conclusions. That said, I'm not arguing the math, I'm just saying it has to be wrong. Could it get that bad? Probably in a total blowout scenario.. but it obviously isn't right now.

True dat !

I admit the calculations do not include restrictions after the seafloor. This has been said many times.

Lets imagine for a brief moment, even though I do not want to inject guess work. So lets leave the guesswork to this post, please. Guess work is toxic and spreads.

90% restriction (surface area restriction) at 15k psi = 48 million gal/day

So if one wants to assume a strong restriction, meaning only 10% of potential is reached, 48 million gal/day is still breaching what the MSM is telling us.

OMG, it is 480 million gallons of oil and 10x more methane gas leaking into the Gulf of Mexico area EVERY SINGLE DAY. There's going to be a large methane FIREBALL making the biblical LAKE OF FIRE of Revelations, then the entire GULF COAST is going to collapse into the sea sending TSUNAMIS and TIDAL WAVES and EARTHQUAKES RIPPLING across the planet, making Eyjafjallayökul AND Katla AND Hekla erupt blowing smoke and ash into the upper ionosphere causing an INSTANT ICE AGE whereupon the earth will collapse into the hole in the Gulf of Mexico and TURN INSIDE OUT causing a SOLAR HOLOCAUST for the HOLLOW EARTH PEOPLE and HITLER'S UFOS are going to soar out of ANTARTICA and THE SURFACE PEOPLE, US, well, we're going to get DEVOURED BY THE UNDERGROUD SPACE LIZARDS WITH A1 SAUCE, which is FINE because NIBIRU was going to kill us all anyway!

I quit! You cannot argue with stupid and crazy people.

I think your calculations are asuming total measured depth = total vertical depth. Total vertical depth should be ~15000ft, MD = ~30000ft

They say 200.000 gallons(Idiots), even with that strong restriction, 48 million gallons per day is MASSIVE.

The biggest Oil Spill Was a litle above 80 millions (i guess),
if you multiply 48 millions for 22 days it will be well pass that number by a long shot!!!!DAMN IT

This would give ~11000psi at 14ppg mud weight

What defines stupid and crazy? Where is the fine line drawn?

Contributing to a society that destroys its future to better the present?

Consuming foods that are not healthy, smoke, inhale vehicle exhaust, being lazy and then complain their health care is too expensive?

Having the opportunity to excel in life but fail to accomplish for immediate pleasures?

Is a smart man one who repeats a fact with out confirming for themselves or a man who understands a fact coming from another mans mind may be altered and flawed?

Will a smart man tell you 1+1=2 or 1+1=11?

Will a smart man assume intelligence relative to the knowledge of his/her peers?




Reducing pipe length will only increase flow rate.

And if you reduce this numbers to 1%, it will stil 4.8 millions gallons per day it is already the biggest oil spill of all time...more that 100 millions of gallons of oil spilled (4.8 millions x 22 days)....

What about depth , pressure/temperature?

THe temperature should reduce, Pressure should reduce to ~11000psi with a 0.7psi/ft gradient.

OMFG, dam christians, my happiness is seeing and looking after my family and that requires money while I am here on earth, and Im livin it up while I can baby! What will you have when you pass, nothing, what the fuck kind of question is that anyway, did it make you feel better.
Too much hostiliy on this thread, fuck this shit. Itll all come out in the end. I agree as above, too many crazy people

What about peak oil? Shouldn't it stop by itself since we're running out of oil? (grin)

Here's a good article

[link to www.wwl.com]

Posted: Tuesday, 11 May 2010 7:58AM

Oil crisis hearings begin, plans develop to try and stop spewing crude


Dave Cohen Reporting

-Today marks three weeks since a rig in the Gulf, 50 miles from Louisiana, blew up. Since then an oil slick keep growing from a leak nearly a mile below the surface. All of the efforts to stop the crude from spewing into the water have failed over the past 21 days.

-Hearings start today into what caused the Deepwater Horizon oil rig to explode, burst into flames, kill 11 people, sink and uncontrollably spew oil into the Gulf. There are a pair of hearings on Capitol Hill and one with federal officials in Kenner. Early finger-pointing has begun among companies involved.
>>Click here for more on the blame game...

-BP Plans to deploy a smaller dome into the Gulf this week to try and cover the oil leak on the Gulf floor. Crews are modifying the so-called "top hat" with systems to pump hot water into the dome and deploy antifreezing chemicals. The first containment chamber failed when frozen crystals formed inside the structure, clogging it up and preventing crews from connecting pipes to catch captured crude.

-Crews have conducted a third test spraying oil dispersants directly at the source of the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. Authorities say the substance like dishwashing soak has proven successful in breaking down the oil and sending it to the floor of the Gulf instead of the water's surface. However, they want to make sure they understand the ecological impact before using the method around the clock.

-Engineers are preparing to attempt a "junk shot" to plug up the leaking well. Crews are gathering materials including rubber pieces and golf balls as they analyze diagnostic date to make sure they have the best chance of making it work. They hope to attempt forcing the debris into the blow out preventer under high pressure within the next two weeks.

-As oil moves further west, Black Hawk helicopters peppered Louisiana's barrier islands with 1-ton sacks of sand Monday to bolster the state's crucial wetlands against the epic Gulf of Mexico oil spill - 4 million gallons and growing. In addition to St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parish; Jefferson, Lafourche and Terrebonne are now forecast to see oil come ashore.
>>Click here to read more about this...

-President Obama met with a number of Cabinet members and senior staff in the White House Situation Room. The administration says it was "to review BP's efforts to stop the oil leak as well as to decide on next steps to ensure all is being done to contain the spread, mitigate the environmental impact and provide assistance to affected states, including individuals, businesses, and communities."
>>Click here for more on this story...

-EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson has returned to the Gulf Coast to oversee efforts. She is getting updates on efforts to address environmental and human health impact of the ongoing BP oil crisis.

-BP reports that 5,710 property damage claims have been opened, from which $2.4 million has already been disbursed. No claims have been denied at this time.
>>Click here for more information or to file a claim...

-Approximately 10,000 personnel are currently responding to protect the shoreline and wildlife.

-Approximately 325,000 gallons of dispersant have been deployed. More than 500,000 gallons are available.
>>Click here to watch video of a dispersant spraying flight over the Gulf...

-More than 290 vessels are responding on site, including skimmers, tugs, barges, and recovery vessels to assist in containment and cleanup efforts—in addition to dozens of aircraft, remotely operated vehicles, and multiple mobile offshore drilling units.

-More than 1 million feet of boom (regular and absorbent) have been deployed to contain the spill—and more than 1.3 million feet are ready for deployment.
>>Click here to watch video or crews laying boom...

-Crews plan to burn more oil from the Gulf surface Tuesday if conditions cooperate.
>>Click here to see video of an oil burn operation...

-State health officials have closed some oyster harvesting in Lafourche and Jefferson parishes as a precaution to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.
>>Click here for more...

- Flying into sunny skies above clean water, two birds that were rescued and cleansed of gunk after a massive oil spill on the Gulf Coast were released Monday in the first of what could be many wildlife relocations.
>>Click here for more...

-Musicians rallied to help save Louisiana's coast, its fishermen and its heritage in a benefit concert dubbed Gulf Aid that will feature Lenny Kravitz and Ani DiFranco - two artists who call the Big Easy home.
>>Read more and listen to an interview with organizer Sidney Torres...

All on page 1, but I will relist for you.


VARIABLES
Depth: 9,754 meters (from seafloor to oil reserve)
Temp: 633*K (360*C) basic average for 35,000 feet below sea level. Calculations were done at room temp with little difference.
Pressure at pipe start: 15,000 to 70,000 psi potential. 15,000 psi is used to ensure flow is at least that much considering fluctuations. These pressures were quoted directly from BP.
Pressure at pipe end: 2,000 psi at sea floor.
Drilled Diameter: 215mm, the smallest bit size possible. The range of sizes go from 21.5cm to 91.4cm
Oil Density: 920 kg/m3

RESULTS
Velocity at pipe start: 1.118 meter/sec
Velocity at pipe end: 8.385 meter/sec

Volumetric Flow at pipe start: 38,603.12 gal/h
Volumetric Flow at pipe end: 289,523.44 gal/h

Volumetric Flow Rate: 1.700313E+007 gph US
....... 17,003,130 gph US (408,075,120 gal/day US)
Mass Flow Rate: 1.30546456E+008 lbs/h
....... 130,546,456 lbs/h (3,133,114,944 lbs/day)

After some reading up on the calculator used, it says the Volumetric Flow Rate is based on standard conditions. I am not sure what is implied. However, the Volumetric Flow at Pipe End can be considered a better figure as the definition of that result is under the given pressures punched in. Sooooooo, to make a long thread short, I must believe the Volumetric Flow at Pipe End is a better result to look at then the Volumetric Flow Rate.

Had I noticed this earlier I would have used the lesser of the two.

So now, looking at the Volumetric Flow at Pipe End, it shows a flow of 6,948,562.56 gal/day or 165,441 barrel/day.

I have to correct the post and title. This figure makes a lot more sense to me. And yes, I may have been wrong. But the math, calculator and variables are correct still. We have been reading the wrong results, possibly. I still need to find out what this calculator means with the Volumetric Flow Rate, not the Volumetric FLow Rate at Pipe End.

So here are the new statistics...
Minimal Flow Potential: 165,441 bbl/day, 6.95 million gal/day
Maximum Flow Potential: 907,619 bbl/day, 38.12 million gal/day