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2010 Hurrican Season "Busier-than-Usual": 8 MAJOR hurricanes with 15 named storms

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05/21/2010 03:55 AM
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2010 Hurrican Season "Busier-than-Usual": 8 MAJOR hurricanes with 15 named storms
[link to www.mahalo.com]

2010 Hurricane Season Forecast

The 2010 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Ocean will begin on June 1, 2010, and end on November 30, 2010. Atlantic hurricanes affect the eastern and Gulf coasts of the U.S. and the Caribbean nations. Those with interests in hurricane-prone areas must heed federal and state advice on preparedness, the season in general, and each specific storm in the season.

The experts are predicting a busier-than-usual hurricane season for 2010. [link to www.tbnweekly.com] These early forecasts, however, will likely be modified depending on the evolving climactic conditions. If the early forecasts prove to be accurate, the 2010 hurricane season will stand in sharp contrast to the relatively mild 2009 season. Special concerns in 2010 are whether a hurricane will hit the already-devastated island of Haiti and how a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico would affect the giant oil slick created by the explosion on the BP offshore driling platform. Another question is whether a hurricane will come ashore in the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coastal areas, some of which have not yet recovered from 2005's Hurricane Katrina. [link to www.commondreams.org]

Latest 2010 Hurricane Forecast Predictions
An Above-Average Hurricane Season:
On April 7, 2010, Colorado State University issued its annual report on the year's hurricane forecast predictions. [link to news.blogs.cnn.com] University forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach each stated that El Nino conditions will likely dissipate by summer. In addition they believe that the warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will not drop and will remain at the current temperatures. These temperatures have reportedly been much warmer than usual. [link to news.blogs.cnn.com] Because of this phenomenon, Gray and Klotzbach indicate that the 2010 hurricane season will be above-average. Specifically, they said that the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures will "[lead] to favorable conditions for hurricanes to develop and intensify." [link to news.blogs.cnn.com]

Eight Major Hurricanes Expected
Colorado State University's forecasters, Gray and Klotzbach, have also reported that eight hurricanes are expected for the 2010 season. [link to news.blogs.cnn.com] Four of the season's hurricanes are expected to strengthen and become major hurricanes. This means that these four, if they do in fact become major hurricanes, would ultimately receive a rating of at least a category 3 storm. [link to news.blogs.cnn.com] Category 3 storms are defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale. The Saffir-Simpson scale indicates that such a storm must have winds of at least 111mph; and that these winds be sustained for a period of time.

15 Named Storms in Total
Including these predicted eight major storms for 2010, Gray and Klotzbach have reason to believe there will be a total of 15 named storms. [link to news.blogs.cnn.com] Because the eight are included in this number, this would mean that seven of the storms during 2010 will be large enough to be officially named and yet not large enough to be considered a major hurricane. These seven additional storms, then, would each be rated at a level of category 2 or below if Gray and Klotzbach's predictions turn out to be correct

15 Named Storms in Total

Including these predicted eight major storms for 2010, Gray and Klotzbach have reason to believe there will be a total of 15 named

A hurricane could move the slick toward the coast and a storm surge or hurricane force winds could carry the oil inland, producing an even greater disaster than either a hurricane or oil slick alone. [link to news.yahoo.com] A hurricane or tropical storm in the Gulf would also impede the efforts to contain the leak and the slick. [link to www.livescience.com] Some have even speculated that the oil slick may inhibit the formation of hurricanes in the Gulf by forming a barrier between the air and the water. [link to content.usatoday.com] Once a hurricane has formed, however, the slick would not affect its intensity or track. [link to www.cleveland.com] Another positive effect of a hurricane may be that the churning waves would hasten degradation of the oil by disbursing it. [link to news.yahoo.com]

Unfortunately, the chances that a hurricane will hit the oil spill are fairly good. Hurricanes in the early part of hurricane season historically develop in the Gulf region, whereas later hurricanes form in the Atlantic Ocean. [link to content.usatoday.com] Moreover, hurricane forecasters from the Colorado State University predict that the chances that a hurricane will enter the Gulf of Mexico this year are 44%, higher than the historic average of 30%. [link to tropical.atmos.colostate.edu]

2010 Hurricane Names
Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Bonnie
Hurricane Colin
Hurricane Danielle
Hurricane Earl
Hurricane Fiona
Hurricane Gaston
Hurricane Hermine
Hurricane Igo
Hurricane Julia