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ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<

 
2+2=5fromtheHills

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06/03/2010 02:19 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
TPTB said that well can leak for the rest of your life providing you live another 50 years.

Oh, please tell me you have a link for that little tidbit.


I remember them saying the CLEAN-UP could take 50 years.....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 849986

That I can easily believe.
"Nothing to see here, go back to sheep..." --- AC 1251379
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 02:22 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
this one thinks its 19 thousand Barrels. [link to www.theatlantic.com]

WTF. no one has a clue how much oil is down there. the reserve itself is called Macondo Prospect. I can't find a source I trust that tells us how big it actually is.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 849986


Will this help?
Estimated Proved and Unproved Oil and Gas Reserves - Gulf of Mexico.
[link to www.gomr.mms.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 02:22 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
TPTB said that well can leak for the rest of your life providing you live another 50 years.

Oh, please tell me you have a link for that little tidbit.


I remember them saying the CLEAN-UP could take 50 years.....

That I can easily believe.
 Quoting: 2+2=5fromtheHills


This is fucking INSANE man. Do you people realize that we are writing the history books right now? A few thousand years from now people will read about this shit and what it did to our planet.
2+2=5fromtheHills

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06/03/2010 02:24 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
TPTB said that well can leak for the rest of your life providing you live another 50 years.

Oh, please tell me you have a link for that little tidbit.


I remember them saying the CLEAN-UP could take 50 years.....

That I can easily believe.


This is fucking INSANE man. Do you people realize that we are writing the history books right now? A few thousand years from now people will read about this shit and what it did to our planet.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 849986

Indeed, brother. Indeed.
"Nothing to see here, go back to sheep..." --- AC 1251379
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 02:25 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
this one thinks its 19 thousand Barrels. [link to www.theatlantic.com]

WTF. no one has a clue how much oil is down there. the reserve itself is called Macondo Prospect. I can't find a source I trust that tells us how big it actually is.


Will this help?
Estimated Proved and Unproved Oil and Gas Reserves - Gulf of Mexico.
[link to www.gomr.mms.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 976323


cool info, thanks, but dated 2006. lots to read here though.
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 02:25 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Oh btw, BP may use oil eating bacteria.

[link to www.smartertechnology.com]

The bacteria will oxidize the hydrocarbons and expel CO2. CO2 is another gas we DO NOT need more of.

The massive release of CO2 in micro sized bubbles under the surface will feed Algae blooms.

Bio Bacteria Eats Oil > CO2
CO2 feeds Algae Blooms > Deadly Toxins
Deadly Toxins > Massive Global Ocean Death
 Quoting: ºCRAPº


Look up the movie Zero Population Growth also known as Z.P.G.

[link to www.imdb.com]

In that movie ocean pollution results in a massive algae die off (or bloom, I can't recall) which releases huge clouds of deadly toxins which sweep over continents causing massive death. People end up living in underground enclosed cities with tightly controlled populations. This die off is also somehow related to the oil industry though I don't remember the specifics (it was a few years ago I saw it).
MrWreckedIt

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06/03/2010 02:31 PM

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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
this one thinks its 19 thousand Barrels. [link to www.theatlantic.com]

WTF. no one has a clue how much oil is down there. the reserve itself is called Macondo Prospect. I can't find a source I trust that tells us how big it actually is.


Will this help?
Estimated Proved and Unproved Oil and Gas Reserves - Gulf of Mexico.
[link to www.gomr.mms.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 976323


they just found the reserve in 2009, so no
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 02:33 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
ok MATH genius people. :

Given the surface area of the Gulf of Mexico, forget the keys and east coast for now, but given the volume we think is released, and the contaminated surface area, HOW MUCH oil is underwater being suspended by the chemicals? (out of site out of mind they think) haha. NOT if your a GLP'r
2+2=5fromtheHills

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06/03/2010 02:37 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
ok MATH genius people. :

Given the surface area of the Gulf of Mexico, forget the keys and east coast for now, but given the volume we think is released, and the contaminated surface area, HOW MUCH oil is underwater being suspended by the chemicals? (out of site out of mind they think) haha. NOT if your a GLP'r
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 849986

What's your estimate?
"Nothing to see here, go back to sheep..." --- AC 1251379
MrWreckedIt

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06/03/2010 02:39 PM

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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
i want to correct myself here i was thinking of the Tiber Oil field [link to en.wikipedia.org]

this is the one with 4-6 billion barrels. probably will never be tapped after what just happened.

anyway the Macondo prospect (the current leak) is supposed to have 50 million barrels

at this new estimated rate from crap it will drain completely in 83 days. So we might as well just scrap the relief wells.

Last Edited by MrWreckedIt on 06/03/2010 02:40 PM
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 02:44 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
ok MATH genius people. :

Given the surface area of the Gulf of Mexico, forget the keys and east coast for now, but given the volume we think is released, and the contaminated surface area, HOW MUCH oil is underwater being suspended by the chemicals? (out of site out of mind they think) haha. NOT if your a GLP'r

What's your estimate?
 Quoting: 2+2=5fromtheHills


Whelp. A few quick googles determined that one gallon of oil can contaminate as much as one MILLION gallons of water, so the entire gulf is basically fucked already, however there is no specific measurement for the surface volume of the oil as it ranges depending on currents, consistancy, type of oil, wave hights, and several other factors making it damn near impossible to predict. Sefice to say, there is ALLOT MORE oil down there than what meets the eye. They have already pumped like 400,000 gallons of chemicals to keep it below the surface.
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 02:46 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
and you are pulling this info from..



it's called math


amen

been saying it since day one
 Quoting: Ice


I've been calculating myself based on Satellite images and things like 'giant plume 22 miles long by six miles wide and 600 feet deep' and my math is not working out in any way.

Even at 500,000 barrels a day I'm coming up way short of the apparent amount of oil in the gulf right now.

I have become gravely concerned that there is a much larger leak miles away from the wellhead, and that we are experiencing seismic activity in the region (Disney Wilderness preserve). The DWP is almost 300 miles away from this well, btw.

I do know that on it's best day, the Alaskan pipeline (42" inch inner diameter) managed to move 2.2 million barrels of oil in one day.

I don't think this is a 'leak'.

I think something very bad is going on in the gulf and we're not being told what the real situation is.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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06/03/2010 02:46 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
i want to correct myself here i was thinking of the Tiber Oil field [link to en.wikipedia.org]

this is the one with 4-6 billion barrels. probably will never be tapped after what just happened.

anyway the Macondo prospect (the current leak) is supposed to have 50 million barrels

at this new estimated rate from crap it will drain completely in 83 days. So we might as well just scrap the relief wells.
 Quoting: MrWreckedIt

Several things will happen when the supply gets low. The flow will slow down as it runs out of oil. Basically pressures are reduced when enough is spilled out.

BUT, the seafloor will be holding the weight of the entire gulf over an empty, depressurized chamber. If the seafloor sinks to compensate the lost oil, it will create a massive tsunami.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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06/03/2010 02:53 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
I think something very bad is going on in the gulf and we're not being told what the real situation is.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 991388

I believe the Mardi Gras oil pipeline is ruptured. The rupture is probably inbetween the land refineries and other rigs.

To close the MardiGras pipeline would mean other wells can't push their product to refineries causing a massive shortage. We are using just enough and any delay in refinment will cause big economical problems.

Also, if the pipeline is fragile from age, shutting a valve with wells pushing pressure behind it, it could rupture the pipeline.

When the disaster happened on April 20th I believe they did shut the pipeline down because the Coast Guard said no oil was leaking. But after some time the main pipeline ruptured releasing a mother load of oil with no way to stop it.
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 02:54 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
i want to correct myself here i was thinking of the Tiber Oil field [link to en.wikipedia.org]

this is the one with 4-6 billion barrels. probably will never be tapped after what just happened.

anyway the Macondo prospect (the current leak) is supposed to have 50 million barrels

at this new estimated rate from crap it will drain completely in 83 days. So we might as well just scrap the relief wells.

Several things will happen when the supply gets low. The flow will slow down as it runs out of oil. Basically pressures are reduced when enough is spilled out.

BUT, the seafloor will be holding the weight of the entire gulf over an empty, depressurized chamber. If the seafloor sinks to compensate the lost oil, it will create a massive tsunami.
 Quoting: ºCRAPº


You're assuming a vacuum underneath the sea bed. If the oil and gas are coming out, something is taking its place in the cavern. Could be sea water, air, or something else. The sea floor might fall little by little but I seriously doubt there will be some huge gaping hole that finally collapses. Just doesn't pass the logic smell test.
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 02:59 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
i want to correct myself here i was thinking of the Tiber Oil field [link to en.wikipedia.org]

this is the one with 4-6 billion barrels. probably will never be tapped after what just happened.

anyway the Macondo prospect (the current leak) is supposed to have 50 million barrels

at this new estimated rate from crap it will drain completely in 83 days. So we might as well just scrap the relief wells.

Several things will happen when the supply gets low. The flow will slow down as it runs out of oil. Basically pressures are reduced when enough is spilled out.

BUT, the seafloor will be holding the weight of the entire gulf over an empty, depressurized chamber. If the seafloor sinks to compensate the lost oil, it will create a massive tsunami.
 Quoting: ºCRAPº


yeah THAT too... Usually when they drain an underwater reserve like this, they pump water back in as they remove the oil... To prevent a collapse.

Hopefully this one is not a chamber so to speak, but some kind of porous rock.
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 03:31 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
If this is true that "1 WELL" could supply 10% of the U.S. oil needs. tounge
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 991224

Fact check. The US uses 19,498,000 barrels of crude daily. At 500,000 barrels per day, it would take 38.9 half a million barrel wells to meet us demand. In other words, such a well would meet 2.56% of US daily demand. Keep in mind that the RECORD daily production for a well in the gulf of mexico is 40,000 barrels per day. That's not to say that this well can't easily be much, much bigger than that due to unrestricted flow.
PyreX

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06/03/2010 03:33 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
watch all 12 cams live on 1 page!

[link to spillcam.tk]
or
[link to spillcam.110mb.com]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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06/03/2010 03:38 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
You're assuming a vacuum underneath the sea bed. If the oil and gas are coming out, something is taking its place in the cavern. Could be sea water, air, or something else. The sea floor might fall little by little but I seriously doubt there will be some huge gaping hole that finally collapses. Just doesn't pass the logic smell test.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 991402

Well here is the issue. If air is entering the reserve then we have a massive bomb under the Gulf.

Water can't penetrate the 3-4 miles of seafloor and if it did, the oil would leak out before any water is getting in.

Imagine a balloon. As we let air out through a controlled leak, nothing goes back into the balloon. It is the external environment that replaces the air escaping from the balloon.

The other option is magma or deeper oil deposits. Either one is bad news as well since magma is self explained and more oil just means the leak will last longer.

Anyway you slice it, it is all bad.

Personally, I believe the reserve will not be compensated internally. I believe the loss of pressure will translate into the seafloor sinking to make up the difference.

Put it this way.....

7.5 gallons of water per cubic foot.
1 US gallon = 8.35 lbs
1 cubic foot of water = 62.625 lbs

The seafloor is 5,000 feet down.

313,125 lbs per square foot / 156.5 Tons per square foot

The seafloor may collapse under such weight. Which is roughly 58 2004 Ford F350 trucks per square foot on the seafloor.
ScrumpTheTexan

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06/03/2010 03:39 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Do you agree with these figures?


well from what I can tell the pipe is significantly pinched..

true figures are probably about 1/5 max flow potential of totally open pipe

soo 500,000 barrels a day is probably a good estimate in my mind..


lets just hope they can cap it now..

if not..

we be fuxored
 Quoting: ^TrInItY^


Oh man... remember the good ol days of "It's ONLY 5000 barrels"... wtf.

Even if they cap it now, we're mega-fuxored already.

5*'s CRAP :)

Bummer numbers man.
I am a Christian.

Christian does not equal doormat or pushover.

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Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 03:46 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Can you do the math to give us the cubic feet of oil that may have gone up so far? How big of a gap have we created in the earth?
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 03:48 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
You're assuming a vacuum underneath the sea bed. If the oil and gas are coming out, something is taking its place in the cavern. Could be sea water, air, or something else. The sea floor might fall little by little but I seriously doubt there will be some huge gaping hole that finally collapses. Just doesn't pass the logic smell test.

Well here is the issue. If air is entering the reserve then we have a massive bomb under the Gulf.

Water can't penetrate the 3-4 miles of seafloor and if it did, the oil would leak out before any water is getting in.

Imagine a balloon. As we let air out through a controlled leak, nothing goes back into the balloon. It is the external environment that replaces the air escaping from the balloon.

The other option is magma or deeper oil deposits. Either one is bad news as well since magma is self explained and more oil just means the leak will last longer.

Anyway you slice it, it is all bad.

Personally, I believe the reserve will not be compensated internally. I believe the loss of pressure will translate into the seafloor sinking to make up the difference.

Put it this way.....

7.5 gallons of water per cubic foot.
1 US gallon = 8.35 lbs
1 cubic foot of water = 62.625 lbs

The seafloor is 5,000 feet down.

313,125 lbs per square foot / 156.5 Tons per square foot

The seafloor may collapse under such weight. Which is roughly 58 2004 Ford F350 trucks per square foot on the seafloor.
 Quoting: ºCRAPº

Enough with the PSEUDO-SCIENCE already. Did you know that the world consumes roughly 1 CUBIC MILE of CRUDE OIL PER YEAR? The world uses 85 MILLION barrels of crude daily. That is 170X as much as this well is leaking, using your number of 500,000 barrels per day. This is certainly a huge amount of oil and plenty to cause MASSIVE DEVASTATING pollution. It won't cause any "SEA FLOOR COLLAPSE" or whatever.
That said, I do agree with your assessment of a leak rate of 500k/barrels per day.
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 03:52 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Well here is the issue. If air is entering the reserve then we have a massive bomb under the Gulf.

Water can't penetrate the 3-4 miles of seafloor and if it did, the oil would leak out before any water is getting in.

Imagine a balloon. As we let air out through a controlled leak, nothing goes back into the balloon. It is the external environment that replaces the air escaping from the balloon.

The other option is magma or deeper oil deposits. Either one is bad news as well since magma is self explained and more oil just means the leak will last longer.

Anyway you slice it, it is all bad.

Personally, I believe the reserve will not be compensated internally. I believe the loss of pressure will translate into the seafloor sinking to make up the difference.

Put it this way.....

7.5 gallons of water per cubic foot.
1 US gallon = 8.35 lbs
1 cubic foot of water = 62.625 lbs

The seafloor is 5,000 feet down.

313,125 lbs per square foot / 156.5 Tons per square foot

The seafloor may collapse under such weight. Which is roughly 58 2004 Ford F350 trucks per square foot on the seafloor.
 Quoting: ºCRAPº



Your balloon analogy seems logical to me. But that means the sea floor will fall little by little as the oil / gas escape. No empty cavern will exist that causes a spontaneous collapse. I doubt a slowly lowering sea floor will create a Tsunami - certainly not one that is 80 - 100 feet tall that takes out 50 - 250 miles of coast land. That was my overall point.
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 03:54 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Your balloon analogy seems logical to me. But that means the sea floor will fall little by little as the oil / gas escape. No empty cavern will exist that causes a spontaneous collapse. I doubt a slowly lowering sea floor will create a Tsunami - certainly not one that is 80 - 100 feet tall that takes out 50 - 250 miles of coast land. That was my overall point.



That is assuming that the earth can act with the same elasticity that a latex balloon has. There will probably be some not so gradual collapses somewhere in there.
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 04:03 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
watch all 12 cams live on 1 page!

[link to spillcam.tk]
or
[link to spillcam.110mb.com]
 Quoting: PyreX


Thanks
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 04:04 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Yippeee!!! Bring it on. Coat the US coasts and beaches with that lovely stuff that so many Americans have killed others for :)
wozza.xing
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06/03/2010 05:21 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
And for those of us who arn't barrel makers - that's 20 million liters, or 8 Olympic size swimming pools, or 18 Wembly stadiums... every day!!!
NARZ
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06/03/2010 05:37 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
EDIT: The figures have been altered due to an oversight in calculation. I had used the diameter where radius was required. This means the previous figures are wrong. I recalculated based on radius now. The figures below are corrected.
_____________________________________________________________​________________

Riser pipe diameter = 24"OD - 21"ID

The flow speed will be assumed at max speed for a storm drain, 5 meters per second. It could be higher but we will remain at a known feasible speed for the sake of argument. There is more then enough pressure to push 5 meters per second.

Cylinder Area of...
Length of 5 meters = 196.85 inches
21" Diameter x 196.85" Height = 67,913 cubic inches

The volume of the 5 meter long pipe is the flow per second since 5 meters will flow per second.
2489
RESULTS

Per Second
7 Barrels per Second

Per Hour
25,196 Barrels per Hour

Per 24 Hours
604,719 Barrels per Day


EVEN IF THE FLOW WAS 1 METER per SECOND = 121,000 Bbl/day
 Quoting: ºCRAPº


You cant just say there is enough pressure, WHATS THE PRESSURE? WHATS THE ACTUAL FLOW RATE, OTHERWISE THIS IS SPECULATION. peace
FatalWishes

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06/03/2010 05:40 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
This not be good....
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Sleetpwnd

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06/03/2010 05:44 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Yeah a couple of weeks ago I posted that the flow figures don't add up. This seems a lot more reasonable to me.

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