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ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 628002
Canada
06/03/2010 05:45 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Oil is not in caverns underground. It is in solid rock with microscopic pores. This oil is at 170,000 psi so the flow rates posted are on the low side.
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 05:50 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Yeah but, how many cans of beer per second? That's a number 'mericans can understand.
narz
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Australia
06/03/2010 05:56 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Oil is not in caverns underground. It is in solid rock with microscopic pores. This oil is at 170,000 psi so the flow rates posted are on the low side.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 628002

170 000psi, what and where did this figure come from! bsflag
narz
User ID: 991033
Australia
06/03/2010 06:02 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
BOP below sea floor = 5067ft below sea level = ~18 360ft total vertical depth (TVD) feet.
(KB-(From kelly bushing-oil inductry term))

The mud weight used while drilling the pay zone(18360ft) was 16ppg

Hydrostatic pressure(HP) = TVD x 0.05 x Mud density(ppg)
=18 360 x 0.052 x 16
=15 275PSI HP

They displace riser with sea water ~8.5ppg

the hydrostatic pressure lost when they displace riser and 3000ft of wellbore (5067+3020=8087ft)
reduce HP=(8087 x 0.052 x 16)- (8087 x 0.052 x 8.50)
=6728 - 3574
=3154PSI
15275 - 3154 PSI = 12 121PSI

so the Formation pressure = between 15275 to 12121PSI.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 984306
United States
06/03/2010 06:53 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
BUT, the seafloor will be holding the weight of the entire gulf over an empty, depressurized chamber. If the seafloor sinks to compensate the lost oil, it will create a massive tsunami.
 Quoting: ºCRAPº


Yes, but what makes anyone think that it will be sequential? Like, step one, all the oil drains out, step two, seafloor collapse, step three, tsunami... Because at any point then, if what you are saying is true, there could be a shifting of the seafloor.

So tsunami could happen at any time, as the leak continues, is that right?

So it sounds like you have to seal the well but also pump water in so as to maintain equilibrium between oceanic weight and upwelling pressure?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 991645
Germany
06/03/2010 07:05 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
The last estimate I heard was it covered an area roughly 90 miles by 130 miles. If it were a uniform 1 inch thick over this whole area, it isn't I'm sure, then I get the following...

63,360 inches per mile, 231 cubic inches per gallon, 42 gallons per barrel.

90 miles = 5,702,400 inches, 130 miles = 8,236,800 inches

Volume = V = (5,702,400in X 8,236,800in X 1in) = 46,969,528,320,000 cubic inches.

V = 203,331,291,429 gallons or

4,841,221,224 barrels.

Feel free to go through these numbers. I feel I'm 100% accurate on this estimate. And this is a very conservative, low-end estimate.
 Quoting: DanfromtheHills



And still this BP engineers are not able to stop the oil spill. But the US military has a lot of technical equipment what could be able to stop it.
The US-military industrial complex they have a lot of knowledge.
Why they do not help?
Now it is a case for the national security.
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2010 08:02 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Oil is not in caverns underground. It is in solid rock with microscopic pores. This oil is at 170,000 psi so the flow rates posted are on the low side.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 628002

I saw that number right at the beginning of this disaster (when the numbers tend to be less biased) but I haven't seen it again til now. Remember 9/11, when some of the most interesting observations were available for only a day or so, then scrubbed from public sources.

Can you substantiate the 170,000 psi number?
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 901059
United States
06/03/2010 08:13 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
You cant just say there is enough pressure, WHATS THE PRESSURE? WHATS THE ACTUAL FLOW RATE, OTHERWISE THIS IS SPECULATION. peace
 Quoting: NARZ 991033

So much for trust.

BP said the pressure is anywhere from 15,000 psi to 74,000 psi. The seawater pressure at 5,000' down is around 2,000 psi.

So subtract 2,000 psi from the reserves pressure and that is the amount of force that is pushing the oil/gas out.

Storm drains moving at 5m/s don't see that kind of pressure pushing it. This is why I said it could be much more but remained at the storm drains speed for the sake of argument.

So the pushing pressure is, 13,000psi-72,000psi.

72,000 psi is close to the peak pressure inside a high powered .50 caliber sniper rifle. Go figure how much force is pushing that oil!

Have any doubts now?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 675262
United States
06/03/2010 09:03 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
EDIT: The figures have been altered due to an oversight in calculation. I had used the diameter where radius was required. This means the previous figures are wrong. I recalculated based on radius now. The figures below are corrected.
_____________________________________________________________​________________

Riser pipe diameter = 24"OD - 21"ID

The flow speed will be assumed at max speed for a storm drain, 5 meters per second. It could be higher but we will remain at a known feasible speed for the sake of argument. There is more then enough pressure to push 5 meters per second.

Cylinder Area of...
Length of 5 meters = 196.85 inches
21" Diameter x 196.85" Height = 67,913 cubic inches

The volume of the 5 meter long pipe is the flow per second since 5 meters will flow per second.
2489
RESULTS

Per Second
7 Barrels per Second

Per Hour
25,196 Barrels per Hour

Per 24 Hours
604,719 Barrels per Day


EVEN IF THE FLOW WAS 1 METER per SECOND = 121,000 Bbl/day
 Quoting: ºCRAPº


abomb burnit dead3
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 675262
United States
06/03/2010 09:20 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
somewhere somehow I think we have gallons and barrels mixed up. That quote I found from Wikipedia. The fricken MSM and BP need to make up thier minds wich unit of measurment to use with this thing, because its starting to get confused.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 849986


Smokescreens are one of the oldest deceptions in the book.
2+2=5fromtheHills

User ID: 945238
United States
06/03/2010 09:36 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
The last estimate I heard was it covered an area roughly 90 miles by 130 miles. If it were a uniform 1 inch thick over this whole area, it isn't I'm sure, then I get the following...

63,360 inches per mile, 231 cubic inches per gallon, 42 gallons per barrel.

90 miles = 5,702,400 inches, 130 miles = 8,236,800 inches

Volume = V = (5,702,400in X 8,236,800in X 1in) = 46,969,528,320,000 cubic inches.

V = 203,331,291,429 gallons or

4,841,221,224 barrels.

Feel free to go through these numbers. I feel I'm 100% accurate on this estimate. And this is a very conservative, low-end estimate.



And still this BP engineers are not able to stop the oil spill. But the US military has a lot of technical equipment what could be able to stop it.
The US-military industrial complex they have a lot of knowledge.
Why they do not help?
Now it is a case for the national security.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 991645

Sigh, you are correct, the military must get involved, and all efforts on a national level must be taken to stop this spill.
"Nothing to see here, go back to sheep..." --- AC 1251379
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 901059
United States
06/03/2010 09:43 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
BUT, the seafloor will be holding the weight of the entire gulf over an empty, depressurized chamber. If the seafloor sinks to compensate the lost oil, it will create a massive tsunami.


Yes, but what makes anyone think that it will be sequential? Like, step one, all the oil drains out, step two, seafloor collapse, step three, tsunami... Because at any point then, if what you are saying is true, there could be a shifting of the seafloor.

So tsunami could happen at any time, as the leak continues, is that right?

So it sounds like you have to seal the well but also pump water in so as to maintain equilibrium between oceanic weight and upwelling pressure?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 984306

For the most part I expect the seafloor to hold it's own weight similar to a honeycomb structure. Small areas will fall in first. A sink hole here, a sink hole there. But when the structure starts to crumble apart in an exponential manner it will rapidly end up as more the 50% the area collapsing rapidly at one moment.

The reason I say exponential is because a chunk of soil collapsing weakens its outer areas which are subjected to collapse. That outer edge becomes weak and gives way. The circle expands and more then one of these exponential collapse will occur.

That will be the tsunami generator. The huge displacement of water. Water will rush in to take up the new space and then bounce back out as a tsunami.
2+2=5fromtheHills

User ID: 945238
United States
06/03/2010 09:47 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
The reason the reported numbers are so low is because if people get a grasp on the truth then their whole scheme of "oil is a scarce/peak oil" becomes untenable.

Think for a second, the US uses 21 million barrels per day.

[link to science.howstuffworks.com]

"Ah, petroleum -- used in everything from lipstick and lubricants to motor oil and medications, oil is one product the world just can't seem to get enough of. The United States especially, which consumes roughly 21 million barrels of the stuff a day, has quite an attachment to this ubiquitous product [source: EIA]. And while oil can be refined into a variety of products, Americans seem to prefer theirs in the form of gasoline. In fact, the United States consumes more gasoline than South America, Europe, Africa and Asia combined [source: EIA]..."

What if my number are anywhere near correct? And, I believe them to be 100% on the mark.

At 125 million barrels per day, we could have been selling oil to the rest of the world. And, this thing won't stop leaking for years by most accounts.

We've been lied to folks. Pull your heads out of your asses.
"Nothing to see here, go back to sheep..." --- AC 1251379
DanG
User ID: 878191
United States
06/03/2010 09:49 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
This not be good....
 Quoting: FatalWishes


hey FW - enuff DOOOM for ya ?
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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United States
06/03/2010 10:00 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
This not be good....


hey FW - enuff DOOOM for ya ?
 Quoting: DanG 878191

We need more. I want Solar Doom, tsunami doom, earthquake doom, EMP doom, Alien Purification Doom, LOL Doom, the game doom!
Steve A
User ID: 1005333
United States
06/16/2010 02:31 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
EDIT: The figures have been altered due to an oversight in calculation. I had used the diameter where radius was required. This means the previous figures are wrong. I recalculated based on radius now. The figures below are corrected.
_____________________________________________________________​________________

Riser pipe diameter = 24"OD - 21"ID

The flow speed will be assumed at max speed for a storm drain, 5 meters per second. It could be higher but we will remain at a known feasible speed for the sake of argument. There is more then enough pressure to push 5 meters per second.

Cylinder Area of...
Length of 5 meters = 196.85 inches
21" Diameter x 196.85" Height = 67,913 cubic inches

The volume of the 5 meter long pipe is the flow per second since 5 meters will flow per second.
2489
RESULTS

Per Second
7 Barrels per Second

Per Hour
25,196 Barrels per Hour

Per 24 Hours
604,719 Barrels per Day


EVEN IF THE FLOW WAS 1 METER per SECOND = 121,000 Bbl/day
 Quoting: ºCRAPº


Add 6,000 psi to that plix :) :bump:
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 566027
Netherlands
06/17/2010 02:36 AM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Keep up the great work ºCRAPº !
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 976323
United States
06/17/2010 04:29 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Riser pipe diameter = 24"OD - 21"ID

The flow speed will be assumed at max speed for a storm drain, 5 meters per second. It could be higher but we will remain at a known feasible speed for the sake of argument. There is more then enough pressure to push 5 meters per second.

Cylinder Area of...
Length of 5 meters = 196.85 inches
21" Diameter x 196.85" Height = 272,834.1 cubic inches

The volume of the 5 meter long pipe is the flow per second since 5 meters will flow per second.

RESULTS

Per Second
272,834 cubic Inches per Second
1,181 US Gallons per Second
28.12 Barrels per Second

Per Hour
4,251,600 US Gallons per Hour
101,232 Barrels per Hour

Per 24 Hours
102,038,400 US Gallons per Day
2,429,568 Barrels per Day



EVEN IF THE FLOW WAS 1 METER per SECOND = 486,000 Bbl/day


I believe your math is incorrect...
21" Diameter x 196.85" Height = 272,834.1 cubic inches

The area of a 21" pipe would be
10.5 X 10.5 X 3.14 = 346.185
346.185" X 196.85" = 68,146.51 cubic inches

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 991247

bump
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1005671
United States
06/17/2010 04:43 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Yeah, the truth is catching up to this thread. I said it then and I say it now.

We all know we are being lied to. Here is some math you can trust a hell of a lot more then some politician stroking BP's cock!.....I mean rooster!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1005671
United States
07/15/2010 04:28 PM
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Re: ALERT - Oil Flow could easily be 120k - 600k Barrels a Day >>CORRECTED<<
Well over a month ago I said a flow between 120k to 600k bbl/day.

Well now, today, the flow rates have been confirmed to be at an average of 350,000 bbl/day, and at most up to 475,000 bbl/day.

For everyone who said it was not possible and posted ugly stuff, come back and own up to your mistakes. We Woo-Woo's have to do it on a daily basis, so own up crackers!!!

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