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BP Just Stupidly Achieved AT LEAST A 33% OVERALL INCREASE IN UNCONTROLLABLE, UNCAPTURED OIL/GAS In the Gulf of Mexico

 
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06/04/2010 06:34 PM
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BP Just Stupidly Achieved AT LEAST A 33% OVERALL INCREASE IN UNCONTROLLABLE, UNCAPTURED OIL/GAS In the Gulf of Mexico
BP Just Stupidly Achieved AT LEAST A 33% OVERALL INCREASE IN UNCONTROLLABLE, UNCAPTURED OIL/GAS In the Gulf of Mexico

(1) BP claimed they could use the relatively tight mating LMRP cap-to-pipe fit to capture a good, but unknown portion of the oil/gas plume. Let's call the PRE-LMRP Oil/Gas Plume "X."

(2) Now let's hypothesize that BP's LMRP could capture 25% of "X," which equals 0.25X CAPTURED OIL/GAS PLUME FLOW and 0.75X UNCAPTURED, UNCONTROLLABLE OIL/GAS PLUME FLOW IN GULF.

(3) SHR mentioned the result of cutting the BOP Pipe just prior to the installation of the LMRP cap could be, worst case, 3 to 4+ times the previous combination of the oil/gas plume flowing through the cracks in the BOP Pipe AND through the extended, bent riser pipe hundreds of feet away on the seabed. Okay, but let's be good CONSERVATIVE engineers. Let's assume the cutting of the BOP Pipe increased the overall oil/gas plume flow rate by 75% instead of by 300% or 400%. (If you saw the plume flow emanating from just the few cracks in the otherwise relatively solid BOP Pipe, then you would know this 75% increase assumption is a fair assessment.) Now, instead of a flow through the cracks of the BOP and the Bent Riser Pipe of "X," we now have an oil/gas flow of 1.75X. For the sake of argument, we now have a hypothetical flow of 1.75X.

(4) Apparently, the LMRP Cap-to-Pipe mating was not real tight, as anyone can see by observing the amount of oil/gas now flowing through and up from the now cutoff BOP Pipe. Sooooooo, let's apply our original capture percentage of 25%. NOW, BP's LMRP Cap captures 0.25*(1.75X) oil/gas plume flow, leaving a mathematical residual of 0.75*(1.75X) of UNCONTROLLABLE, UNCAPTURED OIL/GAS PLUME FLOW INTO THE GULF.

My fellow Americans, 0.75*(1.75X) equals 1.3125X.

IN OTHER WORDS, BP MAY VERY WELL HAVE JUST INCREASED THE TOTAL OVERALL UNCONTROLLABLE AND UNCAPTURED OIL/GAS PLUME FLOW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY ALMOST 33%. We may very well be GOING BACKWARDS IN SOLVING THIS PROBLEM.

(5) What has just happened is that BP's elementary, naive, so-called "expert engineers" just learned the same lesson learned by aircraft designers many decades ago about REVERSE THRUSTER BRAKING on airplanes. After stupidly cutting off the BOP Pipe and releasing 100% of the well bore's design spec'ed HIGH PRESSURE FLOW of the oil/gas, BP just created a situation where the high pressure plume is BOUNCING OFF the underside of the LMRP and flowing out the bottom CIRCUMFERENCE of the LMRP Cap, just like a reverse thruster does on a modern commercial passenger airplane (we have all experienced this on a flight home).

Stated another way, this is similar to a loose garden hose connection to the water spigot on the side of the house. (Think about when we were children and we learned from Dad and Mom that we really needed to make that garden hose to spigot connection REALLY TIGHT.) What happens there if that connection is really lose? You get lots of high pressure water squirting out the entire circumference of the loose fitting hose-to-spigot connection.

(6) What else has BP just done. Well, the effect of the 1.75X high pressure oil/gas plume flow BOUNCING OFF THE UNDERSIDE OF THE LMRP CAP is a bit like the thrust flow against a rocket nozzle. What has happened is that BP has just increased the tendency of the Blowout Preventer to want to LIFT OFF THE FLOOR OF THE OCEAN.

Moreover, this flawed maneuver has also increased the overall vibrational frequency of the geometrically convoluted 3-dimensional space where the very high pressure oil/gas plume flow (maybe 15,000 to 20,000+ psi) meets with and fights against the LMRP and BOP Pipe. Okay, engineers, what is the RESONANT FREQUENCY OF THE LMRP + BOP Pipe contraption? Anyone know? Do BP's engineers know? Of course, the answer is an emphatic "NO!"

So, another lesson BP's stupid ass engineers just learned is the same lesson America's greatest Space Engineers of the Apollo Program learned in the 1960's about how EXCESSIVE VIBRATION CAN TEAR APART A ROCKET. Many of America's first rockets blew up or were range safety destroyed because of EXCESSIVE VIBRATIONAL DAMAGE TO THE ROCKET ENGINE AND THE STRUCTURE HOUSING THE ROCKET ENGINE.

(7) Let me take a SWAG, scientific wild ass guess. Who wants to bet with me that BP's engineers forgot to consider placing STRUCTURAL VIBRATION AND FREQUENCY SENSORS on the BOP Pipe and the LMRP/Cap? This is getting to be KEYSTONE COPS, people.

In sum, in my opinion, BP just performed a repeat of WRONG WAY RIEGELS football play where he picked up a fumble and RAN IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. We are not solving this problem, we are making it worse by allowing BP's idiot executives and engineers to control the solutions to this mess.

Not good, people.
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