New Mexico Task Force 1 Daily Updates on Tropical Storm Activity

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New Mexico Task Force 1 Invest 92-L Will Track Across The Lesser Antilles Today and **May Develop** Later On Down The Road
Yesterday at 2:55pm

After being deactivated and pretty much written off yesterday, Invest 92-L came roaring back yesterday afternoon and last night and is currently a strong tropical wave that will track across the Lesser Antilles today.

The overall setup this morning is as follows: An upper level low pressure system that was located to the northwest of 92-L is now tracking slowly northward. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure is developing over the southeastern Caribbean. This high pressure system is forecast to strengthen and build across much of the eastern Caribbean this weekend. This setup may allow Invest 92-L to get into a more favorable environment later this weekend and especially next week.

Over the past hour or so, satellite imagery indicated that the convection had waned and become more ragged which indicates that the destructive shear is close by just to the north.


Thunderstorms with strong winds, heavy rainfall and rough seas are likely today from the islands of St. Vincent northward through St. Martin and Anguilla. These thunderstorms with strong winds, heavy rainfall and rough seas will spread into the Virgin Islands later today and then Puerto Rico tonight and continue through Saturday.

After that, heavy rainfall with the risk for flash flooding can be expected across Hispaniola this weekend.

Now, the big question is will Invest 92-L develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm?? Even though Invest 92-L is producing strong convection this morning, I think wind shear will limit development into a tropical cyclone in the short term.

In the longer term, however, many of the model guidance members are forecasting that this system will find much better environmental conditions by about the middle part of next week as it potentially nears the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

One thing to keep in mind is that when tropical systems bust through an area of very high shear, they can find themselves in pretty favorable environmental conditions, so it is quite possible that development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm may happen next week in the southern Gulf of Mexico.


A quick rundown of the particular model guidance members show that the GFDL model forecasts it to track north of Hispaniola and into the northern Bahamas, which seems too far north of a track.

The Canadian model forecasts that it will track into the western Gulf of Mexico. The HWRF model forecasts that it will track to near south Florida and the northern Florida Keys in 5 days.

The GFS model forecasts that 92-L will track into and through the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week.

The European model forecasts that 92-L will eventually combine with energy from the ITCZ and another tropical wave to its east and develop near the Yucatan Peninsula in about 9 or 10 days.

As for intensity, the HWRF, GFDL and SHIPS intensity guidance all forecast that 92-L will intensify into a low end tropical storm.


My take is that the best shot for development into a tropical depression or tropical storm will be from Monday and beyond, once Invest 92-L reaches the northwest Caribbean or the Florida Straits and the environmental conditions become much more favorable.

With this system being such a fighter in the face of strong shear, I suspect that this will be a system to really keep a close eye on over the next several days.


I will be posting updates on Invest 92-L throughout the weekend, so keep checking back for the latest.




UK Met Office Forecasting An Extremely Busy Hurricane Season: There is another reliable meteorological agency that is forecasting an extremely busy hurricane season. The Met Office over in the United Kingdom is forecasting 20 tropical storms between July and November with a Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 204.


If this verifies, it would make this hurricane season one of the most active tropical storm seasons on record. Only 2005 recorded more storms between July and November with 25 tropical storms recorded.

Only three seasons, 1995, 2004 and 2005, have recorded a ACE index greater than 204.


It needs to be emphasized that the UK Met Office has done very well in its forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and was able to identify the relatively quiet seasons of 2007 and 2009 from the active season of 2008.


Yesterday at 2:55pm