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Great Lakes(Chicago/Detroit/Toronto) Lemon look out...Major Tornado Outbreak is possible Wednesday June 23

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 979424
United States
06/22/2010 10:33 PM
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Great Lakes(Chicago/Detroit/Toronto) Lemon look out...Major Tornado Outbreak is possible Wednesday June 23
There is a moderate risk of severe weather for tomorrow across northern Illinois and most of southern Michigan. There is a strong chance the outlook by the Storm Prediction Center will be upgraded to a high risk.

The SREF tornado ingredients show a 30-50% probability on significant tornadoes tomorrow across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois and ramping up into much of lower Michigan and southern Ontario. This is a similar value to the violent tornado outbreaks in Oklahoma City/Yazoo City Mississippi earlier this year. This is quite a dangerous Doom scenario if it occurs tomorrow. Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, Toronto, Toledo are likely under the gun tomorrow.

Good Luck

[link to w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]
Greg_B.

User ID: 353206
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06/22/2010 11:22 PM
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Re: Great Lakes(Chicago/Detroit/Toronto) Lemon look out...Major Tornado Outbreak is possible Wednesday June 23
Detroit here, thanks for the heads-up and well-wishing
I'm not too fond of Signatures. Why would I want to end every post the same way?
Anonymous Coward
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06/22/2010 11:25 PM
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Re: Great Lakes(Chicago/Detroit/Toronto) Lemon look out...Major Tornado Outbreak is possible Wednesday June 23
Been going through this all spring here in ohio too.
The Lemon

User ID: 832032
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06/22/2010 11:27 PM
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Re: Great Lakes(Chicago/Detroit/Toronto) Lemon look out...Major Tornado Outbreak is possible Wednesday June 23
Yes, the SREF sig tor values for SRN ON tomorrow are extremely concerning.

Thanks, OP! I'm watching this closely.
The Lemon

User ID: 832032
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06/22/2010 11:29 PM
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Re: Great Lakes(Chicago/Detroit/Toronto) Lemon look out...Major Tornado Outbreak is possible Wednesday June 23
I can see the potential for strong tornadoes tomorrow across Lower Michigan, the big question is: if there is potential across Southern Ontario for strong tornadoes.

I'm right in the middle of the risk tomorrow.

Environment Canada has issued a Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow for most of Southern Ontario, including the risk of large damaging hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

A rarity in these parts.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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06/23/2010 12:12 AM
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Re: Great Lakes(Chicago/Detroit/Toronto) Lemon look out...Major Tornado Outbreak is possible Wednesday June 23
I agree this is not a common forecast for southern Michigan or southern Ontario...it certainly has bust potential as well. However, if the MCS moves through early enough in the day in the western part of the SPC moderate risk area, then all hell could break loose as far as tornadoes behind the early day activity. It is not common for that to occur but many mesoscale boundaries would be present for the storms to feed on, which could enhance the tornado threat.

Hopefully the tornado threat is not maximized. It could rival or exceed the nighttime outbreak from several weeks ago. Except it would pass over more populated areas.

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