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Message Subject Huge asteroid will hit Antartic in 2012
Poster Handle herrw
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After a lengthy discussion with my son over dinner, we've figured out the main problem here: This asteroid has no official designation. If it had an official designation, then we could refer to it and sound like we knew what we were talking about. So, in the interest of the appearence of validity, my son has designated this asteroid "Man-Bear-Pig-2010 or MBP-2010. This naming convention takes into account that, while it is reported to exist, there are no known verifiable sightings (or citings, for that matter).

Now that we can talk about MBP-2010, it's time to start talking about the aftermath when MBP-2010 hits Antarctica.

Since we know so little about MBP-2010, let's take a worst-case scenareo and say that it is nickle/iron with little if any porous material (to elimitate near-earth explosion). An 800m asteroid would begin to break up as it neared the earth's surface, but not enough that the break-up would vary the impact of it's mass. The strike is estimated (via an online strike-calculator which I leave to your googlish skills) to create an earthquake of 8.0 (figuring ice for 700 ft, then water for 1600 ft, then basalt for the remainder of the 4.5 mi deep crater). The most powerful earthquake in recorded history to strike Antarctica was 8.1 in 1998. The ice sheet would survive, so the claims that it would shatter like glass don't ring true.

But let's say that I'm wrong and the ice sheet did shatter, and slide into the ocean. It would literally take months if not years for it all to make it into the ocean, whereupon it would still have to melt before its effects were truly seen. So yes, NY and LA and DC are all toast, but I'm not going to cry over any of those. Here in PA I'll have ocean-front property! Woohoo!

Most likely the ice-hole left by MBP-2010 will be quickly filled and re-frozen. There will be little ejecta, as it is striking ice and water, not land. Depending on the angle and direction of impace, it might not even create a tsunami (if it came in at 45 degrees, from the north, there should only be small tidal anomalies.).

I hope that this helps all ice-hole enthusiasts in their discussion of MBP-2010. I promise to take my tongue out of my cheek when discussing possibilities.
 
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