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Dangerous Extratropical Cyclone Worse Than Edmund Fitzgerald Storm Hitting Midwest/East 10/26!!!

 
BIG Tornado Threat 10/26
User ID: 919411
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10/25/2010 10:12 PM
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Dangerous Extratropical Cyclone Worse Than Edmund Fitzgerald Storm Hitting Midwest/East 10/26!!!
Dangerous Extratropical Cyclone "Land Bomb" Hitting Midwest (Tues) and East (OH/PA afternoon to evening Tues; Northeast late Tues & Wed)

Comma-shaped overland extreme low pressure weather system (2nd worst low pressure of 956 millibars is expected; could break record of 950 mb set in 1978) is going to bring severe thunderstorms, very high winds, and some WET SNOW across the upper midwest, Great Lakes, midwest, south central, and possibly parts of the southern states on Tuesday, states in the East overnight Tues/Wed, and states in the Northeast all day Wednesday.

See link for a diagram of the ultra low pressure high winds that are expected and to see the WIDE SWATH of the country that is already known to be under a tornado threat for Tuesday.

[link to www.weather.com]

"Fall Fury Storm Timeline & Impacts"

We're staring at a powerful storm that is poised to rake high winds, severe t-storms, and, yes, even wet snow in parts of the Midwest. Some effects of this storm may also tease parts of the South and Northeast as well.

Meteorologists know this will be intense due to expected lowest central pressure of the low in western Ontario bottoming out in the neighborhood of 960-970 mb. This is a storm potentially as strong or stronger than the infamous "Edmund Fitzgerald" storm in Nov. 1975 and an even stronger version almost exactly 23 years after that in Nov. 1998.

Let's step through the timing and impacts of this multi-faceted storm.


Severe T-storms

Some cities affected:

- Morning: Chicago, St. Louis, Milwaukee
- Afternoon: Indianapolis, Louisville, Nashville, Cincinnati, Detroit

Severe risks:
- Damaging winds primarily. Some rain-wrapped
tornadoes possible.

- Trees, powerlines may be downed. Some building damage possible.



High Winds (not from thunderstorms)

Some cities affected:

- Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Des Moines, Duluth, Marquette, Milwaukee, Chicago, Grand Rapids

Risks:

- Gusts over 40 mph likely. Occasional gusts to 60 mph, particularly in the afternoon.

- May down power lines. Some branches/limbs may be downed.

- Evening: Cleveland, Columbus

- Late night: Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Charleston WV, Knoxville

Severe risks:

- Damaging winds primarily. An isolated rain-wrapped tornado possible.

- Trees, powerlines may be downed.



Snow

Some cities affected:

- Significant accumulations: Bismarck, Fargo, Grand Forks, Minot, northeast SD

- Less certain: Duluth, northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, Michigan U.P.

- Some wet flakes: Minneapolis/St. Paul, Sioux Falls

Risks:
- Wet snow.

- Blizzard conditions possible. Tree limbs, power lines downed due to weight of snow + wind in areas with significant accumulations.


b]High Winds

Some cities affected:

- Bismarck, Rapid City, Fargo, Sioux Falls, Des Moines, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Duluth, Milwaukee, Chicago, Marquette, Detroit

Risks:
- Gusts over 40 mph likely. Occasional gusts over 60 mph.

- Trees, powerlines may be downed. Some building damage possible.

more at link...

[link to www.weather.com]

Extratropical cyclone

more at link...
[link to simple.wikipedia.org]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/25/2010 10:15 PM
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Re: Dangerous Extratropical Cyclone Worse Than Edmund Fitzgerald Storm Hitting Midwest/East 10/26!!!
"Bombogenesis": A Land Bomb is Exploding in the Midwest

video link

[link to www.weather.com]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/25/2010 10:22 PM
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Re: Dangerous Extratropical Cyclone Worse Than Edmund Fitzgerald Storm Hitting Midwest/East 10/26!!!
NOAA's National Weather Prediction Center

Days 1 & 2 Outlook
Oct 26, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 26 01:02:45 UTC 2010

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/25/2010 10:30 PM
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Re: Dangerous Extratropical Cyclone Worse Than Edmund Fitzgerald Storm Hitting Midwest/East 10/26!!!
BOMBOGENESIS

METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

Bombogenesis is cyclogenesis taken to the extreme.

Bombogenesis is defined as a mid-latitude cyclone that drops in surface barometric pressure by 24 or more millibars in a 24-hour period. The height contours pack around the center of rotation and the number of height contours increases rapidly in the developing stages.

The most common time of the year for bombogenesis to occur is in the cool season (October to March) when the temperature gradient is large between the high and mid-latitudes. Bombogenesis typically occurs between a cold continental air mass and warm ocean waters or between a cold polar air mass and a much warmer air mass.

Many Nor-easters are the product of bombs. The contrast in temperature between polar air spilling over the eastern U.S. and the warm Gulf Stream waters sets the stage for cyclogenesis on the boundary between these air masses.
Sometimes bombs will develop in the central U.S. between the boundary of polar air and more tropical air.

Cyclogenesis that results in bombs requires strong divergence aloft. This divergence aloft is supplied by a strong jet streak diving into the trough axis aloft from the developing low pressure. The momentum of the jet streak and the dynamics in the left front quadrant of the jet streak cause a rapid evacuation of mass above the region of cyclogenesis.

more at link...

[link to www.theweatherprediction.com]
Anonymous Coward
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10/25/2010 10:31 PM
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Re: Dangerous Extratropical Cyclone Worse Than Edmund Fitzgerald Storm Hitting Midwest/East 10/26!!!
verycold verycold verycold
135
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10/25/2010 10:35 PM
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Re: Dangerous Extratropical Cyclone Worse Than Edmund Fitzgerald Storm Hitting Midwest/East 10/26!!!
bump
Anonymous Coward
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10/25/2010 10:37 PM
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Re: Dangerous Extratropical Cyclone Worse Than Edmund Fitzgerald Storm Hitting Midwest/East 10/26!!!
PIN THIS
Dean -- Iowa

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10/26/2010 04:15 AM
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Re: Dangerous Extratropical Cyclone Worse Than Edmund Fitzgerald Storm Hitting Midwest/East 10/26!!!
Yup.

We've had about 3 days warning this was coming.





GLP