Mexico Cantarell Oil Field Dead by End of 2010

2nd largest oil field in the world (was)


US 2nd largest supplier behind Canada





Mexico Cantarell Oil Field Dead by End of 2010


From August 2009:

"The giant Cantarell oil field, the world's eighth largest will be dead by the end of next year. Output peaked in 2004/2005 at around 2.2 million barrels a day (mbd) but will be well below the 0.5 mpd predicted by the end of 2009 - and extrapolating its apparently linear decline, it will be around zero by the end of 2010. Cantarell was a late field, since it was discovered in 1976, by which time there was a host of new technology available to make sure it kept pumping out oil, and by pressurizing the field, oil was pumped out at around 2 mbd for several years, when without this help a field would normally be expected to fall into decline.

However, a well only has so much oil to begin with and the faster this is recovered the quicker it becomes exhausted. It is likely therefore that the depletion side of Hubbert's peak will be a far steeper decline than the incline that rose to it, for many fields around the world, and it is debatable just how much recoverable oil there is all told. It has been suggested that the use of enhanced recovery techniques - i.e. pumping millions of barrels of seawater per day into e.g. the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia has damaged the geological structure, meaning that less of its oil will ultimately be recovered."


[link to ergobalance.blogspot.com]





Mexico is now trying to hide the fact that Cantarell is dead.




Cantarell Finally Slips Below 500 kbpd


"As you can see from the chart, Cantarell Crude Oil Production 2008 – 2010, Mexico’s single giant finally slipped below 500 thousand barrels per day of production in May, to 499,286 kbpd. It’s still pretty astonishing to reflect that just two years ago, Cantarell was still producing a million barrels per day. The Mexican government, like the average layperson, continues to trade publicly in the idea that some new discovery could occur in Mexico that would alter the country’s production decline. But unlike the layperson, PEMEX knows better. (Indeed, insider reports on PEMEX indicate they’ve known for years)."

[link to gregor.us]




Thanks to peak oil, in a matter of months Mexico will experience the full brunt of TSHTF. The US had better hire more border patrols. Of course, given that estimates of Alaska's reserves have been slashed by 90%, the US's dependence on foreign oil will soon reach critical mass ....

Last Edited by Stu on 11/06/2010 05:30 PM