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Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*

 
KevinMartinWx

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11/13/2010 01:32 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
Do you know how many objects are out there?

We only have visual confirmation of one object, thus far. We do not have actual confirmation that this is directly related to the hypothesized launch trajectory which Astronut figured, which led to their discovery by members of this board. However, the objects which have been discovered match no known orbital objects, so either this was a very big coincidence or the two are directly related.

Evidence seems to be mounting that Astronut's missile hypothesis holds significant weight. It should be said, at the same time, that we have no solid verification for either his nor your hypothesis. Only supposition based on 'this will fit' data.
 Quoting: herrw


It holds no weight. I talked with satellite observers that do this every night and they have not found ANYTHING new or uncatalogued.

Last Edited by KevinMartinWxMet on 11/13/2010 01:34 PM
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Least Servant

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11/13/2010 01:37 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
It holds no weight. I talked with satellite observers that do this every night and they have not found ANYTHING new or uncatalogued.
 Quoting: KevinMartinWx


Tell it to FoxNoise... and make attributions to your sources.

Last Edited by Least Servant on 11/13/2010 01:38 PM
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KevinMartinWx

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11/13/2010 01:40 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
I talk to many satellite observers all the time as I like to view them too from a darker location. They have told me time on time again so far nothing unusual ...

These are the people that use their telescopes and watch geostationary satellites glint off the sun and measure the time between flashes ... one such object they like is called SuperBird A - I've seen in at times...

They would be the first to see an unusual object orbiting the planet.

None of this holds weight and they have concluded contrail as well.
IMPORTANT: any mention of NWS/InAccu/TWC gets deleted and banned, I do not like or care for their input.

My New Star Rating System for EACH THREAD I POST -

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Least Servant

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11/13/2010 01:43 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
many satellite observers
 Quoting: KevinMartinWx


Kevin that's not a source.

Please provide a link to someone you have talked to.

It's just how we work on GLP, thanks! :)

I've lurked, so don't look up my join date, it's not useful information.
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Cellz

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11/13/2010 01:44 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
go predict your weather or go back to your lame thread. i dont think anyone in this one is listening to you..

kk drive thru now plz Rainman..
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KevinMartinWx

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11/13/2010 01:45 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
many satellite observers


Kevin that's not a source.

Please provide a link to someone you have talked to.

It's just how we work on GLP, thanks! :)

I've lurked, so don't look up my join date, it's not useful information.
 Quoting: Least Servant


[link to www.satobs.org]
IMPORTANT: any mention of NWS/InAccu/TWC gets deleted and banned, I do not like or care for their input.

My New Star Rating System for EACH THREAD I POST -

Number of Stars

1 = I'm jealous
2 = Kinda jealous
3 = It's okay
4 = Good
5 = Amazing

Check out the DrudgeReport of Science and Natural Disasters at
[link to www.TheWeatherSpace.com]

For all custom SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA weather forecasts visit [link to www.SouthernCaliforniaWeatherAuthority.com]
KevinMartinWx

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11/13/2010 01:46 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
[link to www.satobs.org]

I thank all who have contributed their ideas regarding this topic. I believe that the discussion has
about run its course, and the emerging consensus, here and elsewhere, is that the object in question
is an aircraft. In any case, the topic is at best, marginal for this list; therefore, I am declaring
an end to further discussion.

Ted Molczan
Admin, SeeSat-L, satobs.org
IMPORTANT: any mention of NWS/InAccu/TWC gets deleted and banned, I do not like or care for their input.

My New Star Rating System for EACH THREAD I POST -

Number of Stars

1 = I'm jealous
2 = Kinda jealous
3 = It's okay
4 = Good
5 = Amazing

Check out the DrudgeReport of Science and Natural Disasters at
[link to www.TheWeatherSpace.com]

For all custom SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA weather forecasts visit [link to www.SouthernCaliforniaWeatherAuthority.com]
KevinMartinWx

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11/13/2010 01:47 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
And these are the people that you go to for satellite observations. They do this every day and chart them all, making sure they are on time or even report if they are late/earl, not glinting -

They have not reported any "UNID" UnIdentified satellite crossing their skies like this thread says.
IMPORTANT: any mention of NWS/InAccu/TWC gets deleted and banned, I do not like or care for their input.

My New Star Rating System for EACH THREAD I POST -

Number of Stars

1 = I'm jealous
2 = Kinda jealous
3 = It's okay
4 = Good
5 = Amazing

Check out the DrudgeReport of Science and Natural Disasters at
[link to www.TheWeatherSpace.com]

For all custom SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA weather forecasts visit [link to www.SouthernCaliforniaWeatherAuthority.com]
Anonymous Coward
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11/13/2010 01:53 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
Can someone please tell me what the date was, of this mystery Launch.

Dont tell me it was 5th November !!!!!!!!!!!
KevinMartinWx

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11/13/2010 01:53 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
Can someone please tell me what the date was, of this mystery Launch.

Dont tell me it was 5th November !!!!!!!!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1163097


8
IMPORTANT: any mention of NWS/InAccu/TWC gets deleted and banned, I do not like or care for their input.

My New Star Rating System for EACH THREAD I POST -

Number of Stars

1 = I'm jealous
2 = Kinda jealous
3 = It's okay
4 = Good
5 = Amazing

Check out the DrudgeReport of Science and Natural Disasters at
[link to www.TheWeatherSpace.com]

For all custom SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA weather forecasts visit [link to www.SouthernCaliforniaWeatherAuthority.com]
Anonymous Coward
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11/13/2010 01:56 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
OK ...... It could have been a firework rocket with a long fuse !!!!!!!
KevinMartinWx

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11/13/2010 02:03 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
OK ...... It could have been a firework rocket with a long fuse !!!!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1163097


Wait till you see what I have plann
IMPORTANT: any mention of NWS/InAccu/TWC gets deleted and banned, I do not like or care for their input.

My New Star Rating System for EACH THREAD I POST -

Number of Stars

1 = I'm jealous
2 = Kinda jealous
3 = It's okay
4 = Good
5 = Amazing

Check out the DrudgeReport of Science and Natural Disasters at
[link to www.TheWeatherSpace.com]

For all custom SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA weather forecasts visit [link to www.SouthernCaliforniaWeatherAuthority.com]
Cellz

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11/13/2010 02:10 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
sorry astronut..

i think kevin is right though....

after reading all of this.. he might actually be right..

[link to contrailscience.com]

i mean i was swayed because there is alot of questions answered there.. it still looked like a missile to me but i guess maybe it was a plane afterall..
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Anonymous Coward
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11/13/2010 02:16 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
Can somebody catch me up.Does the Jane's Missiles and Rockets guy still hold his original opinion?
Least Servant

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11/13/2010 02:24 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
I think we need a new word for "Gaslighting".

Blow torching?

whatever

1000 barrels

Kevin, congrats on being the leader of the GLP Moran Porayd!
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Copernica

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11/13/2010 02:56 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
[link to www.satobs.org]

I thank all who have contributed their ideas regarding this topic. I believe that the discussion has
about run its course, and the emerging consensus, here and elsewhere, is that the object in question
is an aircraft. In any case, the topic is at best, marginal for this list; therefore, I am declaring
an end to further discussion.

Ted Molczan
Admin, SeeSat-L, satobs.org
 Quoting: KevinMartinWx


Judge, jury and executioner? That's not very presumptuous of you or anything.
homeruhh


Anyway....

I did just read a post on another group of an eyewitness. She compared the "missile" to when she had seen on the optical illusion trails. She said the "missile" one looked like missile the missile launches she seen. She thought it was too large to be a contrail and said that it went off in the direction away from her....not coming at her, as the optical illusion one would. She said the plume was more missile like in it's size, denseness and that the bottom hadn't started to fade off like normal trails. She also said she saw it from her balcony AND while driving on the freeway - so multiple vantage points.
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AstronutModerator  (OP)
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11/13/2010 04:14 PM

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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
Do you know how many objects are out there?

We only have visual confirmation of one object, thus far. We do not have actual confirmation that this is directly related to the hypothesized launch trajectory which Astronut figured, which led to their discovery by members of this board. However, the objects which have been discovered match no known orbital objects, so either this was a very big coincidence or the two are directly related.

Evidence seems to be mounting that Astronut's missile hypothesis holds significant weight. It should be said, at the same time, that we have no solid verification for either his nor your hypothesis. Only supposition based on 'this will fit' data.


It holds no weight. I talked with satellite observers that do this every night and they have not found ANYTHING new or uncatalogued.
 Quoting: KevinMartinWx

How many conducted a planar search for this specific incident using the hypothesized heading a launch would have had? To my knowledge see sat ruled it out before conducting any direct searches using search elements like mine.
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
[link to www.satobs.org]

I thank all who have contributed their ideas regarding this topic. I believe that the discussion has
about run its course, and the emerging consensus, here and elsewhere, is that the object in question
is an aircraft. In any case, the topic is at best, marginal for this list; therefore, I am declaring
an end to further discussion.

Ted Molczan
Admin, SeeSat-L, satobs.org
 Quoting: KevinMartinWx

Yes by all means, read that thread. I posted about it days ago. They came to the conclusion there was nothing to look for without performing any dedicated searches and without publishing any search elements.
astrobanner2
herrw

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11/13/2010 04:47 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
I talk to many satellite observers all the time as I like to view them too from a darker location. They have told me time on time again so far nothing unusual ...

These are the people that use their telescopes and watch geostationary satellites glint off the sun and measure the time between flashes ... one such object they like is called SuperBird A - I've seen in at times...

They would be the first to see an unusual object orbiting the planet.

None of this holds weight and they have concluded contrail as well.
 Quoting: KevinMartinWx

Well, that's an easy thing to say without a link. What was the formula you used, again, for your advanced trigonometric analysis? Post verifiable data or go home.
"Don't shove beans up your nose."--from a sign in my 8th grade History class. It still applies.
herrw

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11/13/2010 04:49 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
OK ...... It could have been a firework rocket with a long fuse !!!!!!!


Wait till you see what I have plann
 Quoting: KevinMartinWx

Because SOMETHING is going to happen SOMEWHERE, SOMETIME! Kevin Martin says so! But that's not the subject of this thread. Please take your self-promotion elsewhere, so those of us who actually follow the precepts of scientific analysis can play with the data to see what pops up. You can go be self-important in your own threads.
"Don't shove beans up your nose."--from a sign in my 8th grade History class. It still applies.
herrw

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11/13/2010 04:50 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
sorry astronut..

i think kevin is right though....

after reading all of this.. he might actually be right..

[link to contrailscience.com]

i mean i was swayed because there is alot of questions answered there.. it still looked like a missile to me but i guess maybe it was a plane afterall..
 Quoting: Cellz

And that might be accurate. However, to date we still have no official confirmation one way or another. Astronut is pursuing the evidence, just as others are. And he's doing it in an absolutely COOL way.
"Don't shove beans up your nose."--from a sign in my 8th grade History class. It still applies.
herrw

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11/13/2010 04:50 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
Can somebody catch me up.Does the Jane's Missiles and Rockets guy still hold his original opinion?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 920659

I haven't seen a retraction at this point. From anyone.
"Don't shove beans up your nose."--from a sign in my 8th grade History class. It still applies.
Least Servant

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11/13/2010 05:07 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
Can somebody catch me up.Does the Jane's Missiles and Rockets guy still hold his original opinion?

I haven't seen a retraction at this point. From anyone.
 Quoting: herrw


I haven't heard Trin, Nikki, or SHR back off of their beliefs either.

SHR had an extended time in VC last night explaining his opinion.
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Anonymous Coward
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11/13/2010 05:23 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
SHR had an extended time in VC last night explaining his opinion.
 Quoting: Least Servant

1dunno1

What was his opinion?
Resister

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11/13/2010 05:24 PM

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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
Bottom line. If this were an aircraft, the FAA, NORAD, Pentagon, and DHS would have all rushed to tell us the flight number within hours of the missle claim.

In stead, the FAA and DHS have said absolutely nothing. NOTHING about the possibility of a missle within eye sight of a major city. They are willing to xray and physically violate any common citizen who wants to fly from one place to another and shut down whole airports over a "suspicious package" that turns out to be nothing, but not one peep over a possible WMD flying overhead.

NORAD who is famous for detailing the smallest lost nut and bolt in space and scrambles fighter jets for any deviation at all from a commercial flight, says they never saw anything on radar where the TV news camera was pointing last Monday evening, not even the suposed airplane.

The Pentagon acts like a missle sighting with no explaination what so ever is no big deal and dismisses the possibility of WMD in plain site as "most likely" an airplane. Since when does the Pentagon settle for "most likely" anything where national defense is concerned?

We have been lied to. It isn't the first time and it won't be the last, but even by government standards, this one is a whopper.

Last Edited by Resister on 11/13/2010 05:27 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
SHR had an extended time in VC last night explaining his opinion.

1dunno1

What was his opinion?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1080443


He thought it was an ICBM but fired from a Red Forces platform.

I think Blue all the way.
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
And these are the people that you go to for satellite observations. They do this every day and chart them all, making sure they are on time or even report if they are late/earl, not glinting -

They have not reported any "UNID" UnIdentified satellite crossing their skies like this thread says.
 Quoting: KevinMartinWx

Are you accusing me of lying? Tell me this, how many days did it take them to reacquire the X-37B the last time it went missing, even though they knew the previous orbit with exact precision and therefore had an excellent place to start the search? I'll tell you; 36 hours from missing to reacquired even with specific search elements and a dedicated search. That was this month, last month it went missing on Oct 9th and wasn't found again until Oct 12th even once again with search elements published and specific searching underway.

While I agree that after about a week or two they would have probably found something in routine observing if something were to be found, even without specific searching, that does not rule out the possibility of someone like me picking up a briefly orbited unid because I was looking specifically for it in that time period. In other words, their lack of a positive result does not disprove my positive result in the short term unless they were specifically searching the same orbit that I was.

I also agree that just because I saw an unidentified satellite does not automatically mean that it was connected to monday night's report, which was very likely a contrail, but I have to admit that your post seems to indicate that if there were anything unidentified to be found for any length of time, they must have found it as well if I had. I have the utmost respect for the see-sat people, but they aren't the only ones who routinely track geosynchronous and other very dim satellites. I've done so as well on many occasions, including some that have been documented here live at GLP.
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11/13/2010 07:09 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
Are we all sure that those missles arn't being launched to knock "objects" off their trajectories.

The missle is fired and not long after,a fireball hurtles across the NY skyline (bumped of it's trajectory and flaming after the "nudge" from the missle).


Can some math wiz/physics wiz explain to me why my gut feeling is that this is absolutely not a possible senario?



Twice intercepts of satellites in orbit have been done. The US did it in 1985 and China did it in 2007. The intercepts were done at high velocity, and that happens when the two objects are not in the same orbit. Think of it as two cars on the highway. If they are going in the same direction at almost the same speed then gentle bumps are possible, even at high speeds (watch a NASCAR race for an example). However, if the two cars hit at an angle, like at an intersection, lots of damage will occur.

A "cheap" satellite intercept is done at very high relative velocity. One object is in orbit and the other object is going straight up. When the objects meet they basically disintegrate. All that is left are little pieces. That is what happened with the Chinese intercept. A large debris cloud was formed, the satellite just did not fall to Earth. That debris cloud is still being tracked and does pose a hazard to other satellites and will for many years. When these pieces fall to Earth depends on altitude. If the objects are in low earth orbit they will fall quicker than if they are in a medium or high earth orbit. Oh, contrary to popular belief, space is not empty. Even at 400 km there is enough atmosphere to cause friction which slows the spacecraft and that is what causes the orbits to decay and the objects to fall to Earth. The atmosphere also moves higher and lower depending on the state of the Sun.

While a gentle bump is not out of the realm of possibility, it would take a large rocket launching a satellite capable of orbital maneuvers and the two objects have to be in the same orbit, which means fuel and lots of equipment to pull it off. Which means a large satellite hence the need for a large launch rocket.

[link to en.wikipedia.org]
 Quoting: Commutator


This is a most excellent response! I guess it was the whole "nudge" of the missile against the object hurtling at us a 52km/s that kind of wigged me out. :)
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
You may want to make it clear to everybody that your entire scenario, and all elements, are WAGes and as such are merely for playing around and not to be taken seriously. It is an excercise to show that the calculations can be done if the initial parameters are known. The problem is that none of the parameters are known and are all WAGes.

As you know, I have a great deal of respect for your efforts here at GLP.
I think too many are relying on your credibility to lock into the missile scenario when in fact your scenario is merely playing around with WAGes, of which there are an infinite number.
 Quoting: Reality420 1155105

Well I apologize if I haven't made it clear enough and maybe I haven't made it clear enough that I do not buy into the missile theory, I simply wanted to test it as a hypothesis however unlikely it may have been. I agree that none of the parameters were known and some such as altitude had no way of being known until something could be found, but such is the case with just about any classified satellite launch. Usually all we have to start with is a good idea of the heading and a rough idea of the altitude (high, medium, or low). That's what planar searches are for. Hell, the air force flat-out lied about the X-37's orbital information and still amateurs were able to see through it and find it themselves. Yes I made a WAG, but I really don't think that's the point; the point was that I observed something unidentified and I'm simply trying to find it again to identify it.

If I haven't been clear before please allow me to clarify; seeing something unidentified does not mean what was seen was a rocket launch. It doesn't even mean that what I saw was anything new, it could be an older classified satellite in a retrograde orbit similar to what I expected to find but with a different longitude of the ascending node. If I could find it again and nail down the orbit it would be trivial to compare it to the orbit of every previously-known classified satellite and it may well simply be a classified satellite that had gone missing for a while. If I can't find it again then Occam's razor dictates it was most likely something along those lines which is why attempting to revise the old orbital elements to fit what was in reality a completely different satellite did not work.

I hope people won't take my observation as hard proof of a missile launch, but I can't deny that what I observed was an unusual coincidence at the least and deserved further investigation in an attempt to recover it. If anyone disagrees with that decision they're probably the very same sensible people I highly respect, including you, and perhaps the sensible thing would have been to keep it low key on GLP. I hope though that my decision to get people involved can be respected as a demonstration that actually testing claims rather than simply accepting them at face value is worth it. I don't deny that my observation has all the rigorousness of a mythbusters episode, and as such it's VERY important not to over-reach on the conclusion, but I want to make it clear that I'm not claiming this proves anything. At the same time though, I felt it was worth pursuing.

I hope that my decision doesn't damage my friendship with any of you fine folks, I tried to approach it as a neutral party but I understand that I'm not perfect and I at times leaned in either direction even if I didn't mean to.

Last Edited by Astromut on 11/13/2010 07:20 PM
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Re: Mystery "Launch" Hypothetical Orbital Elements *SIGHTING INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED, SOMETHING IS OUT THERE!!!!*
Astro-

Thread: Wait till you guys see what I have planned for LOS ANGELES
:romaflag:
Not enough to fight, too many to die.





GLP