The World at War, Official 2011 war thread for North Korea, Iran, Israel, China, U.S.

Though the chance of an Israeli attack on Iran is slim this weekend, it appears quite urgent that an attack should take place as this is one of the last windows for attack before Iran actually build's their own nuclear warheads. Obamah's team talked a good tough talk this week towards Iran like they were prepared to go to war. At the same time Obamah is going to Hawaii, so we know America will not be involved in such an attack if one did happen. Hawaii is not the best place to conduct a war. We will see if the tough talk ripens into more or whetehr it took Israel off of its heals for another month.

Still waiting for the next large boom in the Iranian nation, should be expected any-time.

Assad's power continues to collapse but he survives longer than thought. At the same time, he is a loose cannon so anything goes there.

I tend to be a little more leary of the high WAR INDEX rating of 10.95, but agree that it should remain high at this rate until after Monday before leveling off depednent on status quo continuing.

Just a note, secret attacks by Israel seem to be preferred launched on Friday nights.

Iran launches 10-day navy drill

Published: 12.24.11, 10:05 / Israel News


Iran launched on Saturday a 10-day naval military exercise around the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian channel Al-Alam reported

More on: [link to www.ynetnews.com]

Turkish warships shell narrow water between Israeli and Cypriot gas fields
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 24, 2011, 2:30 PM (GMT+02:00)


Cypriot President Demetris Christofias has warned Turkey to stop its warships shelling the strip of water dividing the Cypriot and Israeli gas exploration zones in the eastern Mediterranean.

debkafile's military forces report that Wednesday, Dec. 21, Turkish warships began turning their guns on the strip dividing Israel's Leviathan gas field from Block 12 of Cyprus's Exclusive Economic Zone-EEZ, where a large gas field was recently discovered.

Neither Israel nor Cyprus reported the Turkish attacks which are staged in international waters, but both reinforced their naval units around the gas fields. It was the Cypriot president who broke the silence Friday, Dec. 23 with a warning: "If Turkey does not change its gunboat diplomacy and stop playing the part of regional police officer, there will be consequences which, for sure, will not be good - either for the whole region or the Turkish people and first and foremost for Turkish Cypriots," he said.

More on: [link to www.debka.com]

Interesting that Iran is in position to block the Straight of Hormuz today, the specific targeted window for an attack on Iran. Further interest is that a former adviser to O sates that the best outcome right now is a US strike on Iran for long-term interests. Sad thing is he is a former adviser. Wonder why

Nuke expert: Time to attack Iran

Former Obama Administration strategist says US-perpetrated attack on Islamic Republic's nuclear program could spare world from very real threat
[link to www.ynetnews.com]

Iran toughens cyber challenge to US, claims superior drones
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 25, 2011, 7:37 PM (GMT+02:00)


Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi Monday, Dec. 26, replied to Sunday's debkafile report which revealed Tehran's plan to use its big 10-day naval drill east of the Strait of Hormuz to test its vaunted cyber intelligence prowess against US warships. He said Iran has great capabilities in "all fields of national defense, including the use of intelligence drones as well as decoding of such aircraft and countering electronic and covert warfare." The Islamic Republic, he said, could employ aerial drones to counter any potential US-led covert war.

Vahidi's words implied two key points: That Tehran did not expect the US to carry out a lone strike against its nuclear facilities but in conjunction with fellow NATO member and Israel. And two, that the Islamic Republic has convinced itself that by downing the US stealth drone RQ-170, it has acquired all the technology necessary for repelling penetrations and attacks by drones and warplanes with stealth capabilities.

While boasting of its ability to overcome a "US-led covert war" by means of electronic and intelligence means, Iran's defense minister avoided making the same boast about a full-scale war offensive.

More on: [link to www.debka.com]

Council of Foreign Relations on its own website!

Time to Attack Iran
Why a Strike Is the Least Bad Option
Author:
Matthew Kroenig

Opponents of military action against Iran assume a U.S. military strike would be far more dangerous than simply letting Tehran build a bomb. Not so, argues this former Pentagon defense planner. With a carefully designed strike, Washington could mitigate the costs—or at least bring them down to a bearable level—and spare the region and the world from an unacceptable threat.

Read the article at: [link to www.foreignaffairs.com]

this article gives more insight about russia's strategic interests.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s (NG) Defense Ministry sources are saying that the Kremlin has been informed about an upcoming US-supported Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities
Russia’s preparations for minimization of losses from possible military action against Tehran began more than two years ago. Today, they are nearly complete. According to the Defense Ministry sources, the 102nd military base in Armenia was fully optimized in October-November 2011. Military personnel’s families have been evacuated to Russia, and the Russian garrison deployed near Yerevan reduced. Military sub-units stationed in the area have been transferred to Gyumri district, closer to the Turkish border. Strikes against Iranian facilities by US troops are possible from Turkish territory. So far, it is unclear as to what tasks the 102nd military base will perform in relation to this.
The tasks that will be carried out by the army and the navy in the event of a war against Iran are, of course, not being disclosed. But Russia’s Defense Ministry is concerned about the logistical support of troops in Armenia. The 102nd military base is a key point as it is Russia’s outpost in the South Caucasus. It holds a very important geopolitical position. But Kremlin officials are worried that this position will be lost. In the event of a US-Israeli war against Iran, this will indeed be tragic for Russia.
[link to rt.com]

Also important to note, the EU-RUSSIA summit.(15december).
Russia is willing to invest big money into the Euro zone. We are exclusively interested in joint and solidarity efforts by the EU countries that could help them overcome those complex and ambiguous processes that are threatening the stability of the euro area. The summit's agenda also included energy issues, most important! the differences on the third energy package. This means legislation that aims to liberalize the energy sector in the EU.
What the European Union wants is the unbundling of services such as transport and delivery, separated between the owner and the operator of the pipeline. Thus Ways will be discussed on how to make the market more liberal, at the same time being flexible enough to accommodate Russian interests.

this article gives more insight about russia's strategic interests.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s (NG) Defense Ministry sources are saying that the Kremlin has been informed about an upcoming US-supported Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities
Russia’s preparations for minimization of losses from possible military action against Tehran began more than two years ago. Today, they are nearly complete. According to the Defense Ministry sources, the 102nd military base in Armenia was fully optimized in October-November 2011. Military personnel’s families have been evacuated to Russia, and the Russian garrison deployed near Yerevan reduced. Military sub-units stationed in the area have been transferred to Gyumri district, closer to the Turkish border. Strikes against Iranian facilities by US troops are possible from Turkish territory. So far, it is unclear as to what tasks the 102nd military base will perform in relation to this.
The tasks that will be carried out by the army and the navy in the event of a war against Iran are, of course, not being disclosed. But Russia’s Defense Ministry is concerned about the logistical support of troops in Armenia. The 102nd military base is a key point as it is Russia’s outpost in the South Caucasus. It holds a very important geopolitical position. But Kremlin officials are worried that this position will be lost. In the event of a US-Israeli war against Iran, this will indeed be tragic for Russia.
[link to rt.com]

Also important to note, the EU-RUSSIA summit.(15december).
Russia is willing to invest big money into the Euro zone. They are exclusively interested in joint and solidarity efforts by the EU countries that could help them overcome those complex and ambiguous processes that are threatening the stability of the euro area. The summit's agenda also included energy issues, most important! the differences on the third energy package. This means legislation that aims to liberalize the energy sector in the EU.
What the European Union wants is the unbundling of services such as transport and delivery, separated between the owner and the operator of the pipeline. Thus Ways will be discussed on how to make the market more liberal, at the same time being flexible enough to accommodate Russian interests. [link to rt.com]

Currently the Egyptian millitary is considering different options regarding international ties. I think this could be a difficult decision for the Egyptians Army. The logical partner is/and always been the U.S/Israel. But since the Arab spring it will be harder to sell.

The United States is engaged in secret talks with Egypt's ruling military council geared at ensuring that the country's democratically elected regime will maintain its peace treaty with Israel, Mohamed ElBaradei said. [link to www.haaretz.com] 27dec

also

The new post-revolution Egypt is heading abroad in an attempt to mend its relations with other countries. And as part of that, Cairo's foreign minister Mohamed Kamel Amr is visiting Moscow. [link to rt.com] 28dec

Look for Iran seeking a cheap shot against a U.S. boat in the the Persian Gulf.

Syria still chugging away, Assad is not yet ready to launch an attack on Israel.

Israel's window on Iran has closed for the next three weeks overtly. Fresh new troops and drones launched in the dark which will be expected to hit sites in the next two weeks.

PA pushing for an offensive from Israel.

Lowered index :

WAR INDEX 10.25

So unless Iran hits one of our ships in the upcoming days, you are not expecting anything big until at least Spring (March/April)???

No, not exactly. Israel's next window for an Iranian attack will be the third week of January, that too could be the U.S. window too.

Syria may attack Israel at anytime after a bad week of losses.

Iran may try to lure Israel into a war with the PA and Hezbollah in the short-term.

A lot of unknowns make it so that I cannot say Iran/Syria and Israel do not go to war before Spring. A covert attack could go hot at anytime too. But right now things are simmering.

Thank you!

Iranian plan to mine Hormuz puts US, NATO on Persian Gulf alert
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 29, 2011, 11:43 AM (GMT+02:00)

US and NATO task forces in the Persian Gulf have been placed on alert after US intelligence warned that Iran's Revolutionary Guards are preparing Iranian marine commandos to sow mines in the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

The new deployment, debkafile's military sources report, consists of USS Combined Task Force 52 (CTF 52), which is trained and equipped for dismantling marine mines and NATO Maritime Mine Counter measures Group 2 (SNMCMG2). The American group is led by the USS Arden mine countermeasures ship; NATO's by the British HMS Pembroke minesweeper. Other vessels in the task forces are the Hunt-class destroyer HMS Middleton and the French mine warfare ships FS Croix du Sud and FS Var.
Also on the ready are several US Expeditionary Combat Readiness units of the US Fifth Fleet Bahrain command. Seventeen of these special marine units are attached to the Fifth Fleet as America's answer to the Iranian Navy's fast assault boats and marine units.

US military sources told debkafile Wednesday, Dec. 28, that United States has the countermeasures for sweeping the waterway of mines and making it safe for marine passage after no more than a 24-48 hour interruption.

More on: [link to www.debka.com]

Mining the waterways is a simple way for shipping to be halted, noone being able to pin it to Iran, and Iran to sit there feeling nationalistic.
This would enable Iran to confront the west, but not confront the west.
I also have trepidation of a rogue boat being able to sneak close to a US vessel and detonate some type of bomb or launch a missile close in without the act being pinned on Iran.
2012 to be one hell of a year.

What you all know from visiting this thread is that the world is not a rainbow and those nations imposing bad are merely getting stronger.

Iran raises anti-US threat level. Israel's C-of-S warns of potential for regional war
[link to www.debka.com]

am quite sick of the sandbagging....fight..or go home and shut up...we got enough problems with each side barking nonsense at each other

Agree - unfortunately it would be nice if I did not feel that a new thread would be coming for 2012, but it will be. 2012, withstanding the Mayan crap, still looks to be a year that we will never forget as being the year when all things had changed.
Israel faces great challenges (Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, PA in general, Jordan possibly igniting, the new eastern front (Iraq), Egypt (muslim bortherhood), Libya, Turkey, and Obamah.
The U.S. and western civiliation faces the threat of Islamification, an imminent economic collapse, the Iranian challenge, China's military might, Russia (the red bear), and North Korea.
The World is facing possible bibilical implications from revelations and perhaps the coming world government.

Doom is on the agenda no matter what I am afraid.

WAR INDEX 10.3
Happy New Year

NEW SITE:
Thread: World at War, Official 2012 Thread for Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, India, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.

in the normal reltionships japanese do everything to provoke other persons i think this is a normal thing on asia not only north korea or past vietnam,and certainly they do more then you can imagine to provoke.