A Weather Hobbyist Predicts More Snow — Much More

[link to cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com]

Stephen Fybish is worried that you might think he thought this up after the December snowstorm that caught the city by surprise, or the smaller ones last week and the week before.

He did not. Mr. Fybish, a weather hobbyist who is so preoccupied with meteorological data that he has been known to tape climate statistics on the walls of his Upper West Side apartment, was talking about it in December. But really, he thought it up in 2003.

It is a Groundhog-Day-be-damned prediction: When the city gets at least eight inches of snow in December, it will get more by the end of that same winter. More about how much more in a moment. First, a reminder: Spring begins in 62 days. The March equinox is only 1,507 hours away, give or take a couple of hours. The clock is ticking.

Back in 2003, Mr. Fybish figured out that there was an 86.6 percent chance of at least 17 more inches of snow. His criterion then was a minimum of 10 inches in December.


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Ug. Not good news. I am ready for winter to be over!