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***DOOOOOM! NOMURA PREDICTS $220 OIL IF JUST LIBYA, ALGERIA CUT OUTPUT***

 
Tim A. Warall
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02/23/2011 10:10 AM
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***DOOOOOM! NOMURA PREDICTS $220 OIL IF JUST LIBYA, ALGERIA CUT OUTPUT***
Waiting for a Saudi revolution before buying those $200 oil calls? It may be time to reevaluate: according to Nomura a halt in just Libyan and Algerian oil production (far more likely than the crisis spilling over to Saudi) would send oil to over $220/bbl. Specifically "the closest comparison to the current MENA unrest is the 1990-91 Gulf War. If Libya and Algeria were to halt oil production together, prices could peak above US$220/bbl and OPEC spare capacity will be reduced to 2.1mmbbl/d, similar to levels seen during the Gulf war and when prices hit US$147/bbl in 2008." Wouldn't a doubling in price lead to a major demand plunge as well? Yes it would "This could also result in a temporary demand destruction of some 2.0mmbbl/d globally." Also, since the Fed's free money was not flooding global market last time, $220 is just a lowball estimate: "We could be underestimating this as speculative activities were largely not present in 1990-91."

More observations from Nomura's Michael Lo:
[link to www.zerohedge.com]
:martiallaw4:

“The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding, go out to meet it.”

Isaiah 43:2
When you pass through the waters, I will be with you; and when you pass through the rivers, they will not sweep over you. When you walk through the fire, you will not be burned; the flames will not set you ablaze.

Ecclesiastes 12:14
For God shall bring every work into judgment, with every secret thing, whether it be good, or whether it be evil. ~9/11 Was An Inside Job!
Tim A. Warall (OP)

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02/23/2011 10:13 AM
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Re: ***DOOOOOM! NOMURA PREDICTS $220 OIL IF JUST LIBYA, ALGERIA CUT OUTPUT***
colorbump

"If Wikileaks is right, and Saudi has been massively overestimating its reserves, $220 will be just the beginning."
:martiallaw4:

“The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding, go out to meet it.”

Isaiah 43:2
When you pass through the waters, I will be with you; and when you pass through the rivers, they will not sweep over you. When you walk through the fire, you will not be burned; the flames will not set you ablaze.

Ecclesiastes 12:14
For God shall bring every work into judgment, with every secret thing, whether it be good, or whether it be evil. ~9/11 Was An Inside Job!
Tim A. Warall (OP)

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02/23/2011 10:17 AM
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Re: ***DOOOOOM! NOMURA PREDICTS $220 OIL IF JUST LIBYA, ALGERIA CUT OUTPUT***
NOW READ THIS: Saudi Revolution 20 March

[link to www.facebook.com]

Demands:

1 – a constitutional monarchy between the king and government.
2 – a written constitution approved by the people in which governing powers will be determined.
3 – transparency, accountability in fighting corruption
4 – the Government in the service of the people
5 – legislative elections.
6 – public freedoms and respect for human rights
7 – allowing civil society institutions
8 – full citizenship and the abolition of all forms of discrimination.
9 – Adoption of the rights of... (read more)

Last Edited by MARTIAL LAW on 02/23/2011 10:17 AM
:martiallaw4:

“The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding, go out to meet it.”

Isaiah 43:2
When you pass through the waters, I will be with you; and when you pass through the rivers, they will not sweep over you. When you walk through the fire, you will not be burned; the flames will not set you ablaze.

Ecclesiastes 12:14
For God shall bring every work into judgment, with every secret thing, whether it be good, or whether it be evil. ~9/11 Was An Inside Job!
Anonymous Coward
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02/23/2011 10:18 AM
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Re: ***DOOOOOM! NOMURA PREDICTS $220 OIL IF JUST LIBYA, ALGERIA CUT OUTPUT***
Also on Bloomberg:
[link to www.bloomberg.com]

PIN.
ScrumpTheTexan
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02/23/2011 10:21 AM

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Re: ***DOOOOOM! NOMURA PREDICTS $220 OIL IF JUST LIBYA, ALGERIA CUT OUTPUT***
damned
I am a Christian.

Christian does not equal doormat or pushover.

SickOfItAll

"I Have Sworn upon the Altar of God... Eternal Hostility against every form of Tyranny over the mind of man." -Thomas Jefferson, Sep. 23, 1800

MedinaD
For previous Newsletters, click 'Scrump's News Letters' @ [link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Anonymous Cow Art

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02/23/2011 10:23 AM
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Re: ***DOOOOOM! NOMURA PREDICTS $220 OIL IF JUST LIBYA, ALGERIA CUT OUTPUT***
Peak-oil-pin-bump-of doom.



dynamite
Anonymous Coward
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02/23/2011 10:30 AM
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Re: ***DOOOOOM! NOMURA PREDICTS $220 OIL IF JUST LIBYA, ALGERIA CUT OUTPUT***
I am preparing to go off the grid with only solar panels for electric. Woodstove for heat. Fish and grow garden for food. Bicycle for transport.
This shit is coming fast.
Anonymous Coward
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02/23/2011 01:13 PM
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Re: ***DOOOOOM! NOMURA PREDICTS $220 OIL IF JUST LIBYA, ALGERIA CUT OUTPUT***
Just watching CNBC and the words "Saudi Arabia" and "apocalyptic" were mentioned in the same sentence in the context of trouble spreading there.

They were asking if the Saudis can "hold the line".

Feels like we're entering a new reality.
Tim A. Warall (OP)

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02/23/2011 01:15 PM
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Re: ***DOOOOOM! NOMURA PREDICTS $220 OIL IF JUST LIBYA, ALGERIA CUT OUTPUT***
Just watching CNBC and the words "Saudi Arabia" and "apocalyptic" were mentioned in the same sentence in the context of trouble spreading there.

They were asking if the Saudis can "hold the line".

Feels like we're entering a new reality.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 929567


giraffe2
:martiallaw4:

“The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding, go out to meet it.”

Isaiah 43:2
When you pass through the waters, I will be with you; and when you pass through the rivers, they will not sweep over you. When you walk through the fire, you will not be burned; the flames will not set you ablaze.

Ecclesiastes 12:14
For God shall bring every work into judgment, with every secret thing, whether it be good, or whether it be evil. ~9/11 Was An Inside Job!
Sul-americano
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Brazil
02/23/2011 01:22 PM
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Re: ***DOOOOOM! NOMURA PREDICTS $220 OIL IF JUST LIBYA, ALGERIA CUT OUTPUT***
THAT WOULD BE GREAT, since I don't need any oil to ride my bike.pump2
I HOPE IT GOES UP TO us$300 OR FURTHER!!!!!banana2
That means much less cars making annoying noises, polluting our cities and killing pedestrians and bikers!!!
5a5a5a5a5a5a5a5a5a
cRoSS FiRe

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02/23/2011 01:23 PM
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Re: ***DOOOOOM! NOMURA PREDICTS $220 OIL IF JUST LIBYA, ALGERIA CUT OUTPUT***
badsign
"Nothing is as far away as one minute ago." --Jim Bishop

:gameizovar:

It's DO:OM o'clock. WAKE UP!
vor

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02/23/2011 01:23 PM
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Re: ***DOOOOOM! NOMURA PREDICTS $220 OIL IF JUST LIBYA, ALGERIA CUT OUTPUT***
One has to be careful with these price reports. They COULD be conditioning information thrown out there to get us to accept the inevitable, and TPTB artificially raise the price to where the guru said.

The turmoil in the middle east may well have been designed to disrupt oil supplies. The talking heads on tv tell us that price hikes are inevitable and people go along with that.
Sul-americano
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02/23/2011 01:28 PM
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Re: ***DOOOOOM! NOMURA PREDICTS $220 OIL IF JUST LIBYA, ALGERIA CUT OUTPUT***
In Brazil, 25 thousand people die every year in car accidents. If fuel prices rise at least 300%, the number of deaths can drop more than 50%.
5a5a5a5a5a5a5a5a

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