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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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07/15/2012 09:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Could anyone point me in the direction of a real-time (or as near as possible) graph of the BznT
Please?

hf
tomasgod1

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07/15/2012 09:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA is being grossly negligent in not issuing a K7 alert or warning. Spaceweatherlive lists the Kp=7.67 and Potsdam has had a Kp=7 for 3 hours now. NOAA's homebase Boulder magnetometer is at 7.3 and has been over 7 for some time now. AND STILL NO K7 ALERT FROM NOAA? WTF?

SpaceweatherLive:
[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]

Potsdam Kp-index:
[link to www.theusner.eu]

Boulder magnetometer:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

wtf
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Almost as bad as shutting down completely for hours with no further updates prior to this CMEs arrival.

Negligent is an incredibly nice way to put it.
 Quoting: TS66


NOAA decided months ago to stop using averages of the combined magnetometers for their Kp index. Well, this makes their index wrong. There is a reason that we do not have all of the magnetometers strung around the globe at the equator. In order to get accurate readings for forcasting, the magnetometers need to be placed in either very high, or low lattitudes, and all of the others are. So now the world knows what the kp index is for CO; well yippie yia yea, and who gives a shit? The readings are not accurate for anyone else; certainly not Europe, and not the pacific NW, the Midwest, or the North East US either. So NOAA is forcasting for CO, and doing a shitty, dirt bag job of it.
 Quoting: tomasgod1

What's your source that they stopped using the network of magnetometers? Here it says they still use a network strewn across the world [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

It also shows that NOAA's Planetary Kp readings differ from the Boulder readings on the chart right there, contradicting your claim that they abandoned their global network and are only using Boulder. hf
 Quoting: madajs


They do not differ, go look at the boulder mag, NOAA sent out a press release themselves on their site weeks before they stopped. We all new about it, discussed it. It was done, has been and is over, dont even get me irritated, because I am ot in the mood to reply to people that can't research the facts for themselves. NOAA has the USAF Wing KP model accessible on their site, but as you can see they are no where near posting where it has been. They have posted strictly along the lines of the boulder magnetonmeter.

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 07/15/2012 09:07 AM
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Anonymous Coward
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07/15/2012 09:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Could anyone point me in the direction of a real-time (or as near as possible) graph of the BznT
Please?

hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1792728


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 18586831
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07/15/2012 09:15 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Does anyone know where spaceweatherlive.com gets their kp index? It's still showing 8
Anonymous Coward
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07/15/2012 09:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Could anyone point me in the direction of a real-time (or as near as possible) graph of the BznT
Please?

hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1792728


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19756127


Thank you Thank you Thank you!
cheer
SnakeBite

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07/15/2012 09:33 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Prediction back up to 9
mtn_mang

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07/15/2012 09:38 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
good morning! congratulations on 1000 pages, NiN!
TryToGetTheTruth

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07/15/2012 09:46 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
what the hell is THAT!
[link to www.meteorscan.com]
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Wow !!! WTF is it ??? Nice catch !!
 Quoting: TS66


:0
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19715730


Ive been watching this for two days, it even shows a normal strike in the caption to the bottum right, I have NO IDEA what this thing is picking up right now, i do know that the blue area is normal background noise, but right now thats in the red! If anyone knows anything please chime in!
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Is there a thread going that is monitoring this meteorscan site. I tried a search but see nothing. Would be quite interesting to keep an eye on.
Open mind required !

I am in SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO, CANADA
SnakeBite

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07/15/2012 09:48 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Wow !!! WTF is it ??? Nice catch !!
 Quoting: TS66


:0
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19715730


Ive been watching this for two days, it even shows a normal strike in the caption to the bottum right, I have NO IDEA what this thing is picking up right now, i do know that the blue area is normal background noise, but right now thats in the red! If anyone knows anything please chime in!
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Is there a thread going that is monitoring this meteorscan site. I tried a search but see nothing. Would be quite interesting to keep an eye on.
 Quoting: TryToGetTheTruth


Yea i tried to find one as well to no avail, Someone had posted the link a day ago i believe and ive had it open since. My original post was due to a masssssive jump in the graph, it went insane, now its up and down and up and down. It definitely has to do with everything currently going on I believe.
Anonymous Coward
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07/15/2012 09:51 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I am learning so much from all of you! You all are truly amazing with your knowledge!

I have a few questions.

Does earths magnetic field begin to weaken when we are experiencing a longer lasting geomagnetic storm?

If we are experiencing a geomagnetic storm and there would be another X Flare, would that worsen the effects when the first particles reach earth in that 8 minute time frame?

I am still learning so I hope I worded my questions right.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17338098


Good questions, I'll try answer but I can barely type at this point. Hopefully someone else will help out here.

The first question depends on many factors. In this case, with the Bz well-south for a long period of time, I would tend to say "yes". Because of the direct connection to the solar wind plasma, more energy from the sun is charging up the ionosphere, the magneto-tail, and the radiation belts. This causes stronger aurora, magnetic disturbances, and ground currents. Usually, most of this energy is deflected by the Earth's magnetic field.

Another X-flare now would probably not have any more severe effects on the surface, but a proton storm may have a bigger effect on the ionosphere which is already disturbed. Now another big CME would definitely have a stronger effect because the radiation belts are already charged up. I hope that's corrrect, lol.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hugh, we appreciate your dedication, and your knowledge, but your not going to be worth much if you don't at least take a nap !!!
 Quoting: TS66


Yes, and a large x flare with a proton storm would do us in right now as well. Adding a solar radiation storm on top of this CME would be like throwing gasoline on a pile of hot coals and throwing a lit match in it too boot.
 Quoting: tomasgod1



Thank you so much everyone for the answer!
Anonymous Coward
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07/15/2012 10:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Wow !!! WTF is it ??? Nice catch !!
 Quoting: TS66


:0
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19715730


Ive been watching this for two days, it even shows a normal strike in the caption to the bottum right, I have NO IDEA what this thing is picking up right now, i do know that the blue area is normal background noise, but right now thats in the red! If anyone knows anything please chime in!
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Is there a thread going that is monitoring this meteorscan site. I tried a search but see nothing. Would be quite interesting to keep an eye on.
 Quoting: TryToGetTheTruth


lookz weirdy !
aaronnoraa711

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07/15/2012 10:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wow, extreme ELF propagation between 7 to 8 hours ago, second graph..

[link to radio.it]

Not sure how or if ELF/VLF signal propagation relates to energy from an incoming CME, I'm starting a search for information about the relation between the two, in the meantime does anyone know anything about this?
tomasgod1

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07/15/2012 10:26 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The proton density is starting to rise. If the BznT stays -, this could get wicked.

Latest Ace Data


2012 07 15 14:18 UTC

Proton Density 3.4 P/cc

Solar wind 562.7 km/s

BznT - 16.4
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Starry eyes

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07/15/2012 10:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The proton density is starting to rise. If the BznT stays -, this could get wicked.

Latest Ace Data


2012 07 15 14:18 UTC

Proton Density 3.4 P/cc

Solar wind 562.7 km/s

BznT - 16.4
 Quoting: tomasgod1


This is nuts..

Does anyone know when was the last time we got hit like this?
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
Anonymous Coward
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07/15/2012 10:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The proton density is starting to rise. If the BznT stays -, this could get wicked.

Latest Ace Data


2012 07 15 14:18 UTC

Proton Density 3.4 P/cc

Solar wind 562.7 km/s

BznT - 16.4
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Thanks for all you do Tomas
tomasgod1

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07/15/2012 10:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wow, extreme ELF propagation between 7 to 8 hours ago, second graph..

[link to radio.it]

Not sure how or if ELF/VLF signal propagation relates to energy from an incoming CME, I'm starting a search for information about the relation between the two, in the meantime does anyone know anything about this?
 Quoting: aaronnoraa711


ElQ would love to have to have you!

Here is his thread.

Thread: LIVE "ELF/ULF" MONITORING OF EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR SIGNALS ON GLP. QUAKE FORECAST UP TO 6HRS IN ADVANCE...(((Updated Daily))) By ELQ.
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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nerdrage88sasr

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07/15/2012 10:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Vertical climb...
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Anonymous Coward
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07/15/2012 10:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The proton density is starting to rise. If the BznT stays -, this could get wicked.

Latest Ace Data


2012 07 15 14:18 UTC

Proton Density 3.4 P/cc

Solar wind 562.7 km/s

BznT - 16.4
 Quoting: tomasgod1


This is nuts..

Does anyone know when was the last time we got hit like this?
 Quoting: Starry eyes


Last month.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jun 16 2245 UTC

So far it hasn't been any worse than that on the NOAA timeline.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
tomasgod1

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07/15/2012 10:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The proton density is starting to rise. If the BznT stays -, this could get wicked.

Latest Ace Data


2012 07 15 14:18 UTC

Proton Density 3.4 P/cc

Solar wind 562.7 km/s

BznT - 16.4
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Thanks for all you do Tomas
 Quoting: TS66


You too TS66!

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 07/15/2012 10:38 AM
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
nerdrage88sasr

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07/15/2012 10:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
PHEW!....seriously had me worried...topped out at C1.1...
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
peace
hiding2
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
SnakeBite

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07/15/2012 10:41 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Vertical climb...
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


It heard you:P
tomasgod1

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07/15/2012 10:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The proton density is starting to rise. If the BznT stays -, this could get wicked.

Latest Ace Data


2012 07 15 14:18 UTC

Proton Density 3.4 P/cc

Solar wind 562.7 km/s

BznT - 16.4
 Quoting: tomasgod1


This is nuts..

Does anyone know when was the last time we got hit like this?
 Quoting: Starry eyes


Last month.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jun 16 2245 UTC

So far it hasn't been any worse than that on the NOAA timeline.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19756127


agent
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Anonymous Coward
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07/15/2012 10:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
According to the user's guide at USAF Wing Kp
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

it states:
The predictions are color coded according to the amount of solar wind data that was available for each model run, ranging from green (most data) to yellow (little data).

Well, it just switched from yellow to green on the graph.

I'm assuming due to "more" data, this prediction is now "more" accurate ?
Parvati

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07/15/2012 10:45 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Serious dancing...

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]




:Inan:
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
madajs

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07/15/2012 10:45 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
15 mins until the new K updates :)
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
nerdrage88sasr

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Australia
07/15/2012 10:45 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
According to the user's guide at USAF Wing Kp
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

it states:
The predictions are color coded according to the amount of solar wind data that was available for each model run, ranging from green (most data) to yellow (little data).

Well, it just switched from yellow to green on the graph.

I'm assuming due to "more" data, this prediction is now "more" accurate ?
 Quoting: TS66


thats what i believe..??

Tec chart.. [link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
aaronnoraa711

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07/15/2012 10:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The proton density is starting to rise. If the BznT stays -, this could get wicked.

Latest Ace Data


2012 07 15 14:18 UTC

Proton Density 3.4 P/cc

Solar wind 562.7 km/s

BznT - 16.4
 Quoting: tomasgod1


This is nuts..

Does anyone know when was the last time we got hit like this?
 Quoting: Starry eyes


Last month.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jun 16 2245 UTC

So far it hasn't been any worse than that on the NOAA timeline.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19756127


This is grossly misleading. Using K index alone to compare the severity of storms is not accurate. Compare the HAARP fluxgate magnetometer's reading from June 16th to today and you have just one example of why the K index alone (that of which is up to debate on it's accuracy in the first place) can't be used for storm comparison.

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

Select "one month" under Plot Width and 1000 nt under Plot Scale, then select the "update" button below to see the graph.

Last Edited by aaronnoraa711 on 07/15/2012 11:10 AM
nerdrage88sasr

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07/15/2012 10:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
as SC would say...were 'Fokked'...check out the Magnetopause..
[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
nerdrage88sasr

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Australia
07/15/2012 10:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The proton density is starting to rise. If the BznT stays -, this could get wicked.

Latest Ace Data


2012 07 15 14:18 UTC

Proton Density 3.4 P/cc

Solar wind 562.7 km/s

BznT - 16.4
 Quoting: tomasgod1


This is nuts..

Does anyone know when was the last time we got hit like this?
 Quoting: Starry eyes


Last month.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jun 16 2245 UTC

So far it hasn't been any worse than that on the NOAA timeline.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19756127


This is grossly misleading. Using K index alone to compare the severity of storms is not accurate. Compare the HAARP fluxgate magnetometer's reading from June 16th to today and you have just one example of why the K index alone (that of which is up to debate on it's accuracy in the first place) can't be used for storm comparison.

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

Select "one month" under Plot Width to see the graph.
 Quoting: aaronnoraa711


agree, there are far too many variables for comparisons really...
This is the worst one (with some weird happenings) that i hae seen for a while...
And it could have been worse...lucky no large Flares while we are quite vulnerable..
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Anonymous Coward
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United Kingdom
07/15/2012 10:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
as SC would say...were 'Fokked'...check out the Magnetopause..
[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Could you simplify that for your average idiot please?

I can see lots of colours, including red round the earth..
That's bad right?

stars

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