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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 19662783
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07/15/2012 10:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Lets not forget...we may have more 'coming around the mountain..'
check out this from Ismal.. [link to www.lmsal.com]
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
psyoptics

User ID: 14240707
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07/15/2012 10:53 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.bartol.udel.edu]
[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

CR's going down again.

getting close to last march

what happened on 7/10?????? look at MCMurdo data? very odd
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
psyoptics

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07/15/2012 10:55 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Lets not forget...we may have more 'coming around the mountain..'
check out this from Ismal.. [link to www.lmsal.com]
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr

[link to sidc.oma.be]
is that it right behind old 1512?
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
psyoptics

User ID: 14240707
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07/15/2012 10:58 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just a silly question?
do all the worlds countries get their data from NASA?
so if the data is off...NASA would be behind this....or would all countries need to follow at data changes?
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 19662783
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07/15/2012 10:58 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.bartol.udel.edu]
[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

CR's going down again.

getting close to last march

what happened on 7/10?????? look at MCMurdo data? very odd
 Quoting: psyoptics


lol..McMurdo went to McMaccas? slaphimsorry
has to be a glitch
Peace Psy
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 19662783
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07/15/2012 11:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
as SC would say...were 'Fokked'...check out the Magnetopause..
[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Could you simplify that for your average idiot please?

I can see lots of colours, including red round the earth..
That's bad right?

stars
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1792728


The 'Fokk Ring' simulation..(and remember, these are just sims, guesswork if you like)..shows the RC boundary wrapped close to the earth...look at the image below to see what it normally looks like.

heres a good read if your REALLY interested.. [link to mcf.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
tomasgod1

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07/15/2012 11:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I see NOAA is adding alerts on their timeline to YESTERDAY! haha

They added an expected k index of 6 under their k index of 5 reached...what a bunch.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 07/15/2012 11:14 AM
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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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[link to www.youtube.com]

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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 13216008
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07/15/2012 11:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Have not seen anything yet, wait until 1515,1517 and 1512 swing into view!!!
madajs

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07/15/2012 11:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
K indices updated

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19141775
Netherlands
07/15/2012 11:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I am learning so much from all of you! You all are truly amazing with your knowledge!

I have a few questions.

Does earths magnetic field begin to weaken when we are experiencing a longer lasting geomagnetic storm?

If we are experiencing a geomagnetic storm and there would be another X Flare, would that worsen the effects when the first particles reach earth in that 8 minute time frame?

I am still learning so I hope I worded my questions right.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17338098


Good questions, I'll try answer but I can barely type at this point. Hopefully someone else will help out here.

The first question depends on many factors. In this case, with the Bz well-south for a long period of time, I would tend to say "yes". Because of the direct connection to the solar wind plasma, more energy from the sun is charging up the ionosphere, the magneto-tail, and the radiation belts. This causes stronger aurora, magnetic disturbances, and ground currents. Usually, most of this energy is deflected by the Earth's magnetic field.

Another X-flare now would probably not have any more severe effects on the surface, but a proton storm may have a bigger effect on the ionosphere which is already disturbed. Now another big CME would definitely have a stronger effect because the radiation belts are already charged up. I hope that's corrrect, lol.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


hiding
aaronnoraa711

User ID: 18841244
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07/15/2012 11:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Radio reception here in Seattle is going in and out in waves. This takes a while to get through the whole simulation, but it's worth watching, gets a bit scary over the last two hours, pushing inside the bounds of geosynchronous orbit.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
Cosmogenesis12
User ID: 19613410
Portugal
07/15/2012 11:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ninn and People see this 1h 30 mns

U gonna be amazed with the info contained... and dont give up at the beginin cause it really says the true....


[link to www.youtube.com]
Cosmogenesis12
User ID: 19613410
Portugal
07/15/2012 11:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ninn and People see this 1h 30 mns

U gonna be amazed with the info contained... and dont give up at the beginin cause it really says the true....


[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Cosmogenesis12 19613410


It says the true why is all this hapenin... and what we need a do


Namasté
Starry eyes

User ID: 13160787
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07/15/2012 11:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is it a bad thing that the blue and the red are getting pretty close in the south pole?
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
Starry eyes

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07/15/2012 11:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
K indices updated

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


It's weird that the magnetic field looks like it is really being pushed, but the Kp is going down. Is this suppose to work this way?
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1792728
United Kingdom
07/15/2012 11:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
K indices updated

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


It's weird that the magnetic field looks like it is really being pushed, but the Kp is going down. Is this suppose to work this way?
 Quoting: Starry eyes


The more I see, the less I think they have a clue....
(NOAA I mean, not the people here..) ;)
SnakeBite

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07/15/2012 11:39 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is it normal for this to get to such a low point???
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Starry eyes

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07/15/2012 11:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I wake up and everything goes silent, go figure! lol

I guess I have to expect that..many people were up all night looking at data.

hf
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
Starry eyes

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07/15/2012 11:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is it normal for this to get to such a low point???
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: SnakeBite



Yeah, I believe someone said it is because of the flare fall out was past us?
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
SnakeBite

User ID: 13658852
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07/15/2012 11:53 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Okay, thanks for the response:D I think im going to pass out, ive fallen asleep once already :P Happy Hunting, see you guys when im up (hope theres something awesome for me to come back to big_smile

Last Edited by SnakeBite on 07/15/2012 11:57 AM
Starry eyes

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07/15/2012 11:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Okay, thanks for the response:D
 Quoting: SnakeBite


No problem hf

This by no means indicates the CME has passed.

We still have a while. :)

Last Edited by Starry eyes on 07/15/2012 11:55 AM
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
aaronnoraa711

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07/15/2012 12:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
K indices updated

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


It's weird that the magnetic field looks like it is really being pushed, but the Kp is going down. Is this suppose to work this way?
 Quoting: Starry eyes


I don't think it is.. considering that the magnetic field is widening again.. further than it has been over any time the last 4 hours,

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

the proton density is at 2.9

[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]

and the magnetopause is in disarray

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

(once the page loads, hit reload to see the graph showing the field lines if it doesn't show the first time.. it isn't for me)

Last Edited by aaronnoraa711 on 07/15/2012 12:02 PM
Starry eyes

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07/15/2012 12:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
K indices updated

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


It's weird that the magnetic field looks like it is really being pushed, but the Kp is going down. Is this suppose to work this way?
 Quoting: Starry eyes


I don't think it is.. considering that the magnetic field is widening again.. further than it has been over any time the last 4 hours,

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

the proton density is at 2.9

[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]

and the magnetopause is in disarray

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: aaronnoraa711


I'm sooooo confused. lol
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
shenue

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07/15/2012 12:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hoping the KP continues to drop. Keeping my fingers crossed.

[link to www.theusner.eu]
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
aaronnoraa711

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07/15/2012 12:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
K indices updated

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


It's weird that the magnetic field looks like it is really being pushed, but the Kp is going down. Is this suppose to work this way?
 Quoting: Starry eyes


I don't think it is.. considering that the magnetic field is widening again.. further than it has been over any time the last 4 hours,

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

the proton density is at 2.9

[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]

and the magnetopause is in disarray

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: aaronnoraa711


I'm sooooo confused. lol
 Quoting: Starry eyes


SpaceWeather shows Kp is still high at 7.67, their Kp figure seems to have been the most accurate throughout the night..


[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]
aaronnoraa711

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07/15/2012 12:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Kp just dropped to 7.3 :o)
Anonymous Coward
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07/15/2012 12:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Could someone please explain to me as I am still learning all this what the kp ratings mean please and thank you =)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10506528


It's the scale they use to measure geomagnetic storm intensities. Take a look at the definitions below.

K index is shown on the second to last last column to your right.

Lot's of good info there.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


Thank you =) I appreciate the help there is so much to learn and it can be a bit confusing at times =)
Anonymous Coward
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07/15/2012 12:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Could someone please explain to me as I am still learning all this what the kp ratings mean please and thank you =)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10506528


The Kp Rating is an Planetary estimate of the amount of harmful UV Radiation as well as other Solar Particles that are able to penetrate the Earths' protective Atmospheres at any one time.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


=) Thank you that clears up alot of questions that I had, I appreciate the help. =)
Anonymous Coward
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07/15/2012 12:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SpaceWeather shows Kp is still high at 7.67, their Kp figure seems to have been the most accurate throughout the night..


[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]
 Quoting: aaronnoraa711


Are you talking about the graphic on this page?
[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]

The graphic:
[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]

Which below it says:
Observed Kp: 5.00
Predicted Kp: 7.33 (+1h Kp: 7.33)

It's the same data that's here:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Lower right hand corner of your graphic: "Source: NOAA"

--
Anonymous Coward
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07/15/2012 12:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
almost looks like ACE might be reporting wrong data back... The constant negative BZ looks a bit suspicious:

[link to www.solarham.net]