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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
United States
07/16/2012 12:20 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here's the plot from the X-45 flare back in 2003. It followed on the heels of the massive storm (X-17) shown in the link on the bottom

[link to www.theusner.eu]

X-20 flare from 2001

[link to www.theusner.eu]

X-20 from August 1989

[link to www.theusner.eu]

X17 from Oct 2003

[link to www.theusner.eu]

top 20 solar flares since 1978

[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


Type in March 13, 1989.....wowza, thanks for the link
 Quoting: Isis One

[link to www.theusner.eu] is terribly inaccurate I'm sorry to say. It is misreporting the G levels of the storms in every single graph. The person who made this graph has it set to interpret a negative Kp scale as a G threshold. For example, if the reading from GFZ is Kp 8-, his chart calls that a G4 (Severe) storm. But the G4 threshold is not Kp 8-, it is Kp 8o, aka Kp 8. See image [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de]

So yeah, it's nice he went back and graphed all that data, but it really needs to be fixed as it's terribly misleading lol. I sent him an email...
 Quoting: madajs


angry2 and I was having so much fun with it, he he
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
MamaHasAwakened

User ID: 5426767
United States
07/16/2012 12:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Now that face is just CREEPY!hiding
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Sol is turning toward Venus like, "arrrgh I could only scare .03% of the people on earth right now, Venus ...ARRRRGHHH"
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


That face cracked me up! So did your comment!
Thanks!!!! I needed it!

hf
SnakeBite

User ID: 13658852
Canada
07/16/2012 12:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


That chart just shows the radio frequency absorption in the D-layer of the ionosphere. It's mostly used by airlines communications, military and ham radio operators. But it does look cool during big flares and SEP events.

[link to www.radio-electronics.com]

More on HF radio propagation and solar activity:

[link to www.hamqsl.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Here's what Hugh added to help
 Quoting: Isis One


Hey if you watch now, i notised its rising again, watch both of the charts and you will see what i was talking about:D Please watch it! For some reason I want you to see this, lol:D Its good to be a SunTard!!!!5a
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Hi SB, I had to go watch some corny TV, I won't mention what. I'll check those graphs cause its fun, I'm a suntard, she's a suntard, wouldn't you like to be a suntard too? Thats an old jingle, he he
 Quoting: Isis One


Haha you missed it then, but if you look at the 1 min xray flux [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] youll notice that things are slowly coming alive (DARE I JINX IT!!) Now look at the absorption chart [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] as the xray goes up watch the circles of "light" on the screen, they will instantly get more intense depending on how high xrays go. Ive had a few to drink so forgive me if im slightly sloppy tounge
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
United States
07/16/2012 12:24 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hoping for a KP-7+ to be viewing in California :(
 Quoting: ++MarketSellOff++


Hi MSO, you are a very well rounded glp'er if you don't mind my saying so....I like your economy input!!!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
SnakeBite

User ID: 13658852
Canada
07/16/2012 12:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Im glad some of you are back lol, been somewhat quiet and lonely for the past hour or so, Im banging my head because i should be able to see the auroras but the darn city lights just wont let me!!!!
Solar Guardian

User ID: 19652309
Malaysia
07/16/2012 12:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Our magnetosphere is taking a severe beating!!! Now at 30 Nanotesla!!! hiding [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Thread: Just conducted a new research on annual big quakes that happened since 2010. August 20-September 2 2014???

Thread: Russian scientist predicts "Massive Earthquake" to hit Japan by end of 2014!!!

Thread: Japanese scientist predicts another major earthquake in Japan by 2017 -Japanese news!!!

"For 2 consecutive years, lots of rumors concerning big earthquakes and pole shifts caused by a celestial object to occur around the date of August 17 has been circulating on the internet from sources like John Moore and Mike Harris (Nibiru Aug 17 2012) and Pattie Brassard (Mag 15 quake Aug 17 2013).....Is there in any way a chance that the real date could actually be this year? .....August 17-27 2014????" ----Solar Guardian
Isis One

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07/16/2012 12:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Here's what Hugh added to help
 Quoting: Isis One


Hey if you watch now, i notised its rising again, watch both of the charts and you will see what i was talking about:D Please watch it! For some reason I want you to see this, lol:D Its good to be a SunTard!!!!5a
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Hi SB, I had to go watch some corny TV, I won't mention what. I'll check those graphs cause its fun, I'm a suntard, she's a suntard, wouldn't you like to be a suntard too? Thats an old jingle, he he
 Quoting: Isis One


Haha you missed it then, but if you look at the 1 min xray flux [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] youll notice that things are slowly coming alive (DARE I JINX IT!!) Now look at the absorption chart [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] as the xray goes up watch the circles of "light" on the screen, they will instantly get more intense depending on how high xrays go. Ive had a few to drink so forgive me if im slightly sloppy tounge
 Quoting: SnakeBite


I will/am, I'm getting high tech now, got both of those on the favorites bar, yeah thats right, I said favorites bar!!! (thats cause I just figured out how to use it, LOL and I'm sooo happy.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
++MarketSellOff++
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 2864778
United States
07/16/2012 12:33 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hoping for a KP-7+ to be viewing in California :(
 Quoting: ++MarketSellOff++


Hi MSO, you are a very well rounded glp'er if you don't mind my saying so....I like your economy input!!!
 Quoting: Isis One


Thank you so much :)
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
United States
07/16/2012 12:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Our magnetosphere is taking a severe beating!!! Now at 30 Nanotesla!!! hiding [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


Yes she is, sending her a little LOVE, she needs it, just like the rest of us,
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
SnakeBite

User ID: 13658852
Canada
07/16/2012 12:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Hey if you watch now, i notised its rising again, watch both of the charts and you will see what i was talking about:D Please watch it! For some reason I want you to see this, lol:D Its good to be a SunTard!!!!5a
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Hi SB, I had to go watch some corny TV, I won't mention what. I'll check those graphs cause its fun, I'm a suntard, she's a suntard, wouldn't you like to be a suntard too? Thats an old jingle, he he
 Quoting: Isis One


Haha you missed it then, but if you look at the 1 min xray flux [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] youll notice that things are slowly coming alive (DARE I JINX IT!!) Now look at the absorption chart [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] as the xray goes up watch the circles of "light" on the screen, they will instantly get more intense depending on how high xrays go. Ive had a few to drink so forgive me if im slightly sloppy tounge
 Quoting: SnakeBite


I will/am, I'm getting high tech now, got both of those on the favorites bar, yeah thats right, I said favorites bar!!! (thats cause I just figured out how to use it, LOL and I'm sooo happy.
 Quoting: Isis One


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I am only new here from about a week ago, this is my first solar storm on this forum, and i never really knew much about them before. Those were some of the links provided to me, took me a bit of reading and what not but im slowly beginning to see how things work, You want to know something, just ask, there are plenty of intelligent people on the subject here:D
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
United States
07/16/2012 12:45 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Saved all three, thank you, SB, and yes I've lurked usually, but this event was interesting, staying at it all weekend, the repetition AND everyone's input improved my skills/knowledge

Last Edited by Isis One on 07/16/2012 12:47 AM
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Solar Guardian

User ID: 19864046
Malaysia
07/16/2012 01:06 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The KP still at 7. When will this geomagnetic storm stop?wtf

[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]
Thread: Just conducted a new research on annual big quakes that happened since 2010. August 20-September 2 2014???

Thread: Russian scientist predicts "Massive Earthquake" to hit Japan by end of 2014!!!

Thread: Japanese scientist predicts another major earthquake in Japan by 2017 -Japanese news!!!

"For 2 consecutive years, lots of rumors concerning big earthquakes and pole shifts caused by a celestial object to occur around the date of August 17 has been circulating on the internet from sources like John Moore and Mike Harris (Nibiru Aug 17 2012) and Pattie Brassard (Mag 15 quake Aug 17 2013).....Is there in any way a chance that the real date could actually be this year? .....August 17-27 2014????" ----Solar Guardian
madajs

User ID: 6377684
Canada
07/16/2012 01:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.theusner.eu] is terribly inaccurate I'm sorry to say. It is misreporting the G levels of the storms in every single graph. The person who made this graph has it set to interpret a negative Kp scale as a G threshold. For example, if the reading from GFZ is Kp 8-, his chart calls that a G4 (Severe) storm. But the G4 threshold is not Kp 8-, it is Kp 8o, aka Kp 8. See image [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de]

So yeah, it's nice he went back and graphed all that data, but it really needs to be fixed as it's terribly misleading lol. I sent him an email...
 Quoting: madajs


angry2 and I was having so much fun with it, he he
 Quoting: Isis One

Hi Isis hf. You can still have fun with it if you don't mind unravelling it's foibles. The data it is sourced from is accurate, he just didn't understand how to present it properly. When that graph shows an 8-, an 8- did occur. You'll just have to keep in mind that each "G" storm category contains 3 Kp scales, beginning with o, then +, then -. To attain the next "G" category, the Kp must reach o. So for example, the planet is currently experiencing a G2 storm, the range of which can be as low as Kp 6o and as high as Kp7- (according to GFZ we're currently at Kp 6+, which equates to a "medium" G2 storm).

So his Kp values are accurate, you'll just have to place them in the appropriate storm categories in your head when you look at his graph. thumbs
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
07/16/2012 01:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, I think im going to make a toast out to the entire team here, NiN you have the best forum i have ever been on! Thank you for providing all of this information! *Raises shot of Jack Daniels up to the SunTard Team!rockon
 Quoting: SnakeBite


cheers from this suntard who has MUCH to learn!
 Quoting: SpiderJones


You and be both brother!cheers
 Quoting: SnakeBite


much love to you and the entire crew here!
hf

i have been trying for over 4hrs to get online
my net will connect, then within 30 sek its back out
same with my daughters phone
im not sure whats going on because i was just able to get this page to load, then my net when out again
my net is out while im writing this, but im going to hit post when it connects again and hope it goes through before it cuts out again
just wanted to let you all know why i have not showed up tonight
guess i will go watch a DVD and try to catch up on some sleep
hope everyone is well and having better luck with their net than i am hahah
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19372178
United States
07/16/2012 01:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The last C 3 flare seemed to come from 1522 near the NW limb. It looks like a hanging C, too.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

On the geomagnetic storm, this info from SIDC-

GEOMAGNETISM : Major geomagnetic storm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 147 / AP: 047
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 146 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 007
COMMENT: PRESTO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Sun Jul 15 2012, 0958 UT

The CME associated to the X1.4 flare of July 12 arrived
yesterday evening around 17:30UT and produced, as predicted a major
geomagnetic storm since then. From this morning 06:00UT the
interplanetary magnetic field turned southward consistently at -20nT,
resulting in a second, reinforced phase of the magnetic storm that will
presumably last for the rest of the UT day. Meanwhile flaring activity
on the Sun has decreased, there are no other CMEs on the way to the
Earth.
[link to sidc.oma.be]
madajs

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07/16/2012 01:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The KP still at 7. When will this geomagnetic storm stop?wtf

[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]
 Quoting: Solar Guardian

Hi friend. That site was debunked earlier for intentionally misrepresenting data.
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
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07/16/2012 01:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We still have solar storm kp=6, wow, didn't think it would last this long. Bz has been south most of the day though- so I guess that's why it's still storm. Hitting both poles, lots of energy!
Well, for me, lights out, good night all!
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19372178
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07/16/2012 02:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The x-ray flux has remained above C1 for 4 hours now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The "official" debunked fudged numbers for the Kp Index is now at 5=Storm:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

They round all the numbers downward:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Weirdest ACE SW Plot in recent memory:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Good night and good morning everyone!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19869237
Germany
07/16/2012 02:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The x-ray flux has remained above C1 for 4 hours now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The "official" debunked fudged numbers for the Kp Index is now at 5=Storm:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

They round all the numbers downward:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Weirdest ACE SW Plot in recent memory:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Good night and good morning everyone!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I did attribute the non volatile graphs of the solar wind and the BZ component to perhaps a malfunction in the ACE detectors. However, the fact that we are having a G2 storm makes it very likely that the readings are indeed correct... I don`t have enough experience to explain the odd readings, but I haven`t seen something similar in the last 2 years (which doesn`t say too much)
madajs

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07/16/2012 03:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GFZ's UTC 0300-0600 update is showing us dropped to a Kp 6o (baseline) storm with 10 of 13 magnetometers reporting.

[link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de]

In my opinion the institution that calculates the official planetary Kp index is also the preeminent source for Kp estimates so I'm going to be focusing on their readings going forward.

Their source is a network of 13 magnetometers [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de] that is by far the most globally spread out compared to other magnetometer networks. It's really comprehensive.
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
SnakeBite

User ID: 13658852
Canada
07/16/2012 03:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well im off. I need some serious sleep now lol, been a loooong day:P Happy Hunting!
shenue

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07/16/2012 08:12 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all...

need to catch up on what's happened while I was asleep.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
shenue

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07/16/2012 08:17 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well it appears we are finally on the down side of this storm. At least, I sure hope so.

clappa 5a
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
aether

User ID: 1412926
United Kingdom
07/16/2012 08:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
feels like that to me
for 10 days plus i have been feeling effect
now
i detect it passing
Anonymous Coward
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07/16/2012 08:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone .... hf

Looks like things are quieting done a bit.
Luisport

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07/16/2012 08:30 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.youtube.com]
Anonymous Coward
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07/16/2012 08:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Luisport


Wow, nice video. Tons of info !!
Anonymous Coward
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07/16/2012 09:28 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can you believe this storm? Still here! It has calmed a bit, but still rollin'! What a ride.
More to come later this week...
Anonymous Coward
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07/16/2012 09:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone .... hf

Looks like things are quieting done a bit.
 Quoting: TS66


Mornin'!
We should be getting lovely posts later of the auroras, North and South, can't wait. I have seen a few on news headlines already.
Starry eyes

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07/16/2012 09:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Top of the mornin'!!
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***

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