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# SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)

Solar Guardian

User ID: 19864046
Malaysia
07/16/2012 01:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)

User ID: 6377684
07/16/2012 01:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
[link to www.theusner.eu] is terribly inaccurate I'm sorry to say. It is misreporting the G levels of the storms in every single graph. The person who made this graph has it set to interpret a negative Kp scale as a G threshold. For example, if the reading from GFZ is Kp 8-, his chart calls that a G4 (Severe) storm. But the G4 threshold is not Kp 8-, it is Kp 8o, aka Kp 8. See image [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de]

So yeah, it's nice he went back and graphed all that data, but it really needs to be fixed as it's terribly misleading lol. I sent him an email...

and I was having so much fun with it, he he
Quoting: Isis One

Hi Isis . You can still have fun with it if you don't mind unravelling it's foibles. The data it is sourced from is accurate, he just didn't understand how to present it properly. When that graph shows an 8-, an 8- did occur. You'll just have to keep in mind that each "G" storm category contains 3 Kp scales, beginning with o, then +, then -. To attain the next "G" category, the Kp must reach o. So for example, the planet is currently experiencing a G2 storm, the range of which can be as low as Kp 6o and as high as Kp7- (according to GFZ we're currently at Kp 6+, which equates to a "medium" G2 storm).

So his Kp values are accurate, you'll just have to place them in the appropriate storm categories in your head when you look at his graph.
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
07/16/2012 01:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Well, I think im going to make a toast out to the entire team here, NiN you have the best forum i have ever been on! Thank you for providing all of this information! *Raises shot of Jack Daniels up to the SunTard Team!
Quoting: SnakeBite

from this suntard who has MUCH to learn!
Quoting: SpiderJones

You and be both brother!
Quoting: SnakeBite

much love to you and the entire crew here!

i have been trying for over 4hrs to get online
my net will connect, then within 30 sek its back out
same with my daughters phone
im not sure whats going on because i was just able to get this page to load, then my net when out again
my net is out while im writing this, but im going to hit post when it connects again and hope it goes through before it cuts out again
just wanted to let you all know why i have not showed up tonight
guess i will go watch a DVD and try to catch up on some sleep
hope everyone is well and having better luck with their net than i am hahah
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19372178
United States
07/16/2012 01:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
The last C 3 flare seemed to come from 1522 near the NW limb. It looks like a hanging C, too.

On the geomagnetic storm, this info from SIDC-

GEOMAGNETISM : Major geomagnetic storm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 147 / AP: 047
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 146 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 007
COMMENT: PRESTO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Sun Jul 15 2012, 0958 UT

The CME associated to the X1.4 flare of July 12 arrived
yesterday evening around 17:30UT and produced, as predicted a major
geomagnetic storm since then. From this morning 06:00UT the
interplanetary magnetic field turned southward consistently at -20nT,
resulting in a second, reinforced phase of the magnetic storm that will
presumably last for the rest of the UT day. Meanwhile flaring activity
on the Sun has decreased, there are no other CMEs on the way to the
Earth.

User ID: 6377684
07/16/2012 01:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
The KP still at 7. When will this geomagnetic storm stop?

Quoting: Solar Guardian

Hi friend. That site was debunked earlier for intentionally misrepresenting data.
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
United States
07/16/2012 01:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
We still have solar storm kp=6, wow, didn't think it would last this long. Bz has been south most of the day though- so I guess that's why it's still storm. Hitting both poles, lots of energy!
Well, for me, lights out, good night all!
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19372178
United States
07/16/2012 02:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
The x-ray flux has remained above C1 for 4 hours now.

The "official" debunked fudged numbers for the Kp Index is now at 5=Storm:

They round all the numbers downward:

Weirdest ACE SW Plot in recent memory:

Good night and good morning everyone!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19869237
Germany
07/16/2012 02:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
The x-ray flux has remained above C1 for 4 hours now.

The "official" debunked fudged numbers for the Kp Index is now at 5=Storm:

They round all the numbers downward:

Weirdest ACE SW Plot in recent memory:

Good night and good morning everyone!
Quoting: Hugh M Eye

I did attribute the non volatile graphs of the solar wind and the BZ component to perhaps a malfunction in the ACE detectors. However, the fact that we are having a G2 storm makes it very likely that the readings are indeed correct... I don`t have enough experience to explain the odd readings, but I haven`t seen something similar in the last 2 years (which doesn`t say too much)

User ID: 6377684
07/16/2012 03:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
GFZ's UTC 0300-0600 update is showing us dropped to a Kp 6o (baseline) storm with 10 of 13 magnetometers reporting.

In my opinion the institution that calculates the official planetary Kp index is also the preeminent source for Kp estimates so I'm going to be focusing on their readings going forward.

Their source is a network of 13 magnetometers [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de] that is by far the most globally spread out compared to other magnetometer networks. It's really comprehensive.
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
SnakeBite

User ID: 13658852
07/16/2012 03:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Well im off. I need some serious sleep now lol, been a loooong day:P Happy Hunting!
shenue

User ID: 5263313
United States
07/16/2012 08:12 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good morning all...

need to catch up on what's happened while I was asleep.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
shenue

User ID: 5263313
United States
07/16/2012 08:17 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Well it appears we are finally on the down side of this storm. At least, I sure hope so.

I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
aether

User ID: 1412926
United Kingdom
07/16/2012 08:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
feels like that to me
for 10 days plus i have been feeling effect
now
i detect it passing
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19720771
United States
07/16/2012 08:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone ....

Looks like things are quieting done a bit.
Luisport

User ID: 19877205
Portugal
07/16/2012 08:30 AM

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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19720771
United States
07/16/2012 08:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Quoting: Luisport

Wow, nice video. Tons of info !!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
United States
07/16/2012 09:28 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Can you believe this storm? Still here! It has calmed a bit, but still rollin'! What a ride.
More to come later this week...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
United States
07/16/2012 09:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone ....

Looks like things are quieting done a bit.
Quoting: TS66

Mornin'!
We should be getting lovely posts later of the auroras, North and South, can't wait. I have seen a few on news headlines already.
Starry eyes

User ID: 13160787
United States
07/16/2012 09:33 AM
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Top of the mornin'!!
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
Luisport

User ID: 19877205
Portugal
07/16/2012 09:49 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Kp 5 now... [link to www.theusner.eu]
BloodyT3CH

User ID: 2148885
Lithuania
07/16/2012 12:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Go to this site: [link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] Choose:MDI Continuum. Start date:20031015, End Date:20031105. These sunspots are enormous comparing to todays sunspots.
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
07/16/2012 12:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
morning everyone :)
well if anything this storm has shown everyone how the 1st few hours of a CME arrival does not tell the whole story of what it will do or how bad/good it will be
things are calming a bit now

after the Bz remaining in the -16/-12 range for around the last 24hrs, keeping this storm running strong
it has now come up some to where it is now at -1.1

we do have a nice spike then a small rise on the low energy protons at ACE
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
07/16/2012 12:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
from SWPC
2012-07-16 14:13 UTC Geomagnetic Storm Winding Down

The ongoing geomagnetic storm is finally showing signs of weakening. G2 (Moderate) levels were observed during the event, but recent periods have been below the G1 (Minor) level. No further significant activity has occured, and while Region 1520 has become less of a threat, it still has the potential for further activity.

but we already knew that :)
joinca

User ID: 8793176
United States
07/16/2012 01:07 PM

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The SDO/AIM sun with magnetic fields are back!!
and

What a weekend that was.

"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson
joinca

User ID: 8793176
United States
07/16/2012 01:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Here is a list of the popular links that have been used.
GOES Xray Flux - 1 minute data: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
GOES Magnetoneter 1 minute data: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
GOES Electron Flux 5 minute data: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
GOES13 Proton Flux - 5 minute data: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Big Bear - Latest Solar Activity Warnings: [link to www.bbso.njit.edu]
Current Solar Data (from NOAA): [link to www.n3kl.org]
Boulder USGS Magnetoneter: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Terrestrial Activity Report: [link to www.solen.info]
SOTERIA Flare Predictor Tool: [link to sidc.oma.be]
SOHO web site: [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
CMEs detected by Cactus: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
NSO/GONG H Alpha Network Monitor movies: [link to halpha.nso.edu]
Last Measurement : [link to mms.rice.edu]
D_RAP Global 1dB Absorption: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
NOAA ACE RTSW (estimated) EPAM Protons: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Mt. Wilson Observatory: [link to obs.astro.ucla.edu]
Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Index: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Watch : Thread: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
OVATION: Aurora model : [link to helios.swpc.noaa.gov]
Current Kp-index (provisional data): [link to www.theusner.eu]
Magnetopause Model Animation: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
Indices of Global Geomagnetic Activity: [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de]
Kp Sites List: [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de]

What all of this means: [link to www.hfunderpants.com]

"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson
SnakeBite

User ID: 13658852
07/16/2012 01:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Morning all! I see we are FINALLY winding down, what a storm! This has been so exciting, i wonder what Ol' Sol has in store for us coming up?.. HMMMM
shenue

User ID: 5263313
United States
07/16/2012 01:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Well, I think im going to make a toast out to the entire team here, NiN you have the best forum i have ever been on! Thank you for providing all of this information! *Raises shot of Jack Daniels up to the SunTard Team!
Quoting: SnakeBite

I raise my glass of iced tea in a toast to those dedicated people on this thread that keep us informed!! You all are great and I luv my 'suntard family'.

I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19720771
United States
07/16/2012 02:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Well, I think im going to make a toast out to the entire team here, NiN you have the best forum i have ever been on! Thank you for providing all of this information! *Raises shot of Jack Daniels up to the SunTard Team!
Quoting: SnakeBite

I raise my glass of iced tea in a toast to those dedicated people on this thread that keep us informed!! You all are great and I luv my 'suntard family'.

Quoting: shenue

Your ice tea to my martini
C3Music
User ID: 16136592
United States
07/16/2012 02:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Well, I think im going to make a toast out to the entire team here, NiN you have the best forum i have ever been on! Thank you for providing all of this information! *Raises shot of Jack Daniels up to the SunTard Team!
Quoting: SnakeBite

I raise my glass of iced tea in a toast to those dedicated people on this thread that keep us informed!! You all are great and I luv my 'suntard family'.

Quoting: shenue

Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19372178
United States
07/16/2012 02:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
For about 5 hours yesterday, from approximately 14:30-19:30z, the magnetopause was compressed to reside within the geosynchronous satellite orbit. This exposed many satellites to the direct solar winds. During this this time the Kp Index was at 5. Had it been at level 8 or 9, it may have risked damage the ISS (and the folks inside ) in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), as well as most other satellites.

3-Day Estimated Planetary K Index:

Graph of Magnetopause Stand-off Distance (measured in Earth radii)-
:mag standoff:

Magnetopause Simulation-

Now the GOES electron flux is rising quickly and we may see an alert issued soon: