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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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07/16/2012 02:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
For about 5 hours yesterday, from approximately 14:30-19:30z, the magnetopause was compressed to reside within the geosynchronous satellite orbit. This exposed many satellites to the direct solar winds. During this this time the Kp Index was at 5. Had it been at level 8 or 9, it may have risked damage the ISS (and the folks inside ) in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), as well as most other satellites.

3-Day Estimated Planetary K Index:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Graph of Magnetopause Stand-off Distance (measured in Earth radii)-
:mag standoff:

Magnetopause Simulation-
:sats exposed:

Now the GOES electron flux is rising quickly and we may see an alert issued soon:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I hope some of you got to see the aurora this weekend. If you did please give us a report. I have to attend to some things now, so I'll check back in this evening.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


That shot of the magnetopause says it all :phew:
Anonymous Coward
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07/16/2012 03:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Interesting, first time I've see this warning in my neck of the woods. I guess these warnings no longer only pertain to big cities

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE NEW YORK STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION HAS
ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY HEALTH ADVISORY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
DUTCHESS...ULSTER...COLUMBIA...GREENE...SCHOHARIE...ALBANY...​
RENSSELAER...SARATOGA...SCHENECTADY...WASHINGTON...FULTON...

MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN HERKIMER.
AIR QUALITY LEVELS IN OUTDOOR AIR ARE PREDICTED TO BE GREATER THAN AN
AIR QUALITY INDEX VALUE OF 100 FOR THE POLLUTANT OF OZONE. THE AIR
QUALITY INDEX...OR AQI...WAS CREATED AS AN EASY WAY TO CORRELATE
LEVELS OF DIFFERENT POLLUTANTS TO ONE SCALE. THE HIGHER THE AQI VALUE,
THE GREATER THE HEALTH CONCERN.


Very Sad.
madajs

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07/16/2012 03:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
An Estimated Kp is calculated by NOAA in near-real-time.

The official, after-the-fact, 3-hourly planetary index of geomagnetic activity is calculated twice per month by the the German GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) (Research Center for Geosciences)
 Quoting: NOAA [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Both the official Kp index (TM) at GFZ [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de] and USAF's Estimated Kp index [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] registered a max of Kp 7 plus two scales for this storm. So we saw a 3rd degree G3 storm that came within a hair of reaching Kp 8 (G4).

Pretty solid!

Last Edited by madajs on 07/16/2012 03:23 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
MamaHasAwakened

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07/16/2012 03:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, I think im going to make a toast out to the entire team here, NiN you have the best forum i have ever been on! Thank you for providing all of this information! *Raises shot of Jack Daniels up to the SunTard Team!rockon
 Quoting: SnakeBite


I raise my glass of iced tea in a toast to those dedicated people on this thread that keep us informed!! You all are great and I luv my 'suntard family'.

blwkss
 Quoting: shenue


Your ice tea to my martini smile_kiss
 Quoting: TS66


wine


And my glass of vino!
v3ngi

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07/16/2012 03:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]

New hotness...

1517, 1515 and 1512


explosion

Last Edited by v3ngi on 07/16/2012 03:46 PM
v3ngi
madajs

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07/16/2012 03:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Check out the difference in specificity provided by NOAA versus that provided by the official index and USAF:

[link to i49.tinypic.com]

NOAA: "G2. It's at least Kp 6 but below Kp 7."
GFZ/USAF: "Here let us narrow that down to an exact reading for you! Kp 7 plus two scales!"

NOAA has really dumbed things down =/
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
psyoptics

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07/16/2012 03:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just a look as to what might be coming around in the future....
Returning region last day status
----------------------------------
Reg# flares level lat long area mag. state Due on
1512 no flares LOW -15 84 80 ALPHA DECLINING 18 7 2012
1513 M-flare(s) MODERATE 17 89 180 ALPHA STABLE 22 7 2012
1514 no flares LOW -14 27 10 ALPHA STABLE 22 7 2012
1515 X-flare(s) HIGH -15 89 320 BETA-GAMMA DECLINING 23 7 2012
1516 no flares LOW 20 52 0 ALPHA DECLINING 23 7 2012
1517 no flares LOW 19 53 20 BETA DECLINING 24 7 2012
1518 no flares LOW 9 13 20 BETA GROWING 30 7 2012
1519 M-flare(s) MODERATE -17 68 90 BETA GROWING 31 7 2012


[link to www.ips.gov.au]
[link to sidc.oma.be]
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Anonymous Coward
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07/16/2012 04:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like a new LDE C6.2 occurring [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] (even though they haven't acknowledged it as such).... going back to the campsite, enjoy your evening hf
mtn_mang

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07/16/2012 05:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
longest duration flare since the x on thursday that i have observed. was this 1520? sry haven't kept up

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
SnakeBite

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07/16/2012 05:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Little bit of ejection off to the left if im not mistaken
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
Starry eyes

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07/16/2012 05:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

...Ahem..
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
Anonymous Coward
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07/16/2012 07:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The LDE C7.5 flare peaking at 20:03 was from the 1520 region.
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The new active region on the block gave us a CME from the eastern limb ~ 18:45, which began to show up on C2 ~ 19:30.
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] C2 n=20
Stereo behind EUIV195:
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

It also produced a C3.8 at ~ 21:39.
[link to www.lmsal.com]

--
RTS REDUX

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07/16/2012 08:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the Northern Lights were seen as far south as Aspen Colorado last night and there are reports of a good chance of seeing them tonight in N. Arizona

[link to whotalking.com]

pictures from Aspen

[link to www.flickr.com]

time lapse from Sheboygan, WI



[link to www.youtube.com]

Last Edited by RTS REDUX on 07/16/2012 08:32 PM
Spittin'Cesium

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07/16/2012 08:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ow.

I'm still really horribly ill with something akin to a Flu

: ?

I cannot compute much at all at the moment,all that helps is Music.

My boy Bilo.

[link to www.youtube.com]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
MamaHasAwakened

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07/16/2012 08:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ow.

I'm still really horribly ill with something akin to a Flu

: ?

I cannot compute much at all at the moment,all that helps is Music.

My boy Bilo.

[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hope you feel better soon Spittin! So sorry to hear you are sick!
Spittin'Cesium

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07/16/2012 08:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Though I would like to put it out there that our Star produces Water - Anyone notice the horrific downpours nearly everywhere of late?

I am pretty sure that pentrating Solar Radiation also helps seed clouds.

I know that 'Cosmic Rays' are believed to seed our Planets Clouds.

Urgghh..ma' heed.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/16/2012 08:59 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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07/16/2012 09:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ow.

I'm still really horribly ill with something akin to a Flu

: ?

I cannot compute much at all at the moment,all that helps is Music.

My boy Bilo.

[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hope you feel better soon Spittin! So sorry to hear you are sick!
 Quoting: MamaHasAwakened


Me too!

Thanks Mama : )

I feel worse for those in the non digital ether(Internet)that are close to me,they got it to come yet themselvesstars

Big Luv to you all by the waymusic
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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07/16/2012 09:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] is just bloody hilarious(ouch) - Now we are about to ride high again..lots of trapped Fraggles.
: )

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/16/2012 09:10 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
ANHEDONIC

User ID: 16542544
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07/16/2012 09:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ow.

I'm still really horribly ill with something akin to a Flu

 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


How long ya been sick for?

Last year I was 'sick' for like 7 weeks... Went to a Doctor after 5 weeks and they gave me antibiotics which did not help at all as the 'flu-like symptoms' persisted for another 2 weeks afterwards.

It was not a cold that I had but something else.

Last Edited by WOLF* on 07/16/2012 09:21 PM
The Golden Rule
[link to youtube.com (secure)]
RTS REDUX

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07/16/2012 09:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
this is from VE3EN's yt channel (solarham)

Quote: "unbelievable signal"



[link to www.youtube.com]

description:

After a CME impact on July 14, 2012, the Bz component of the IMF tipped south for over 24 hours. This resulted in Moderate to Strong Geomagnetic Storming and a very large Radio Aurora opening on the evening of July 15th across VHF (50mhz and 144mhz). This video captures my pileup on 6 meters. Signals ranged from very weak to very strong with heavy Aurora distortion. Contacts via the Aurora are made by directing antennas towards the Auroral Zone and the signals are reflected back. The distortion or "flutter" sound is caused by rapid changes in the ionosphere.

Last Edited by RTS REDUX on 07/16/2012 09:34 PM
Spittin'Cesium

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07/16/2012 09:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ow.

I'm still really horribly ill with something akin to a Flu

 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


How long ya been sick for?

Last year I was 'sick' for like 7 weeks... Went to a Doctor after 5 weeks and they gave me antibiotics which did not help at all as the 'flu-like symptoms' persisted for another 2 weeks afterwards.

It was not a cold that I had but something else.
 Quoting: ANHEDONIC


Hey there : )

So far only about a Week back did this begin,but the illness you alluded to is what is going around(or something very similar)every Cold I have had(and everyone my Family have had)for the last two Years is extremely persistent and last for at least 4-5 Weeks - My Dad just had similar that lasted just over 4 Weeks.

Continued Immune Attacks possibly to weaken the body for something else perhaps(my conspiracy mind speaking there)?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Vesper33
Silver Pools of Light

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07/16/2012 09:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ow.

I'm still really horribly ill with something akin to a Flu

: ?

I cannot compute much at all at the moment,all that helps is Music.

My boy Bilo.

[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hey SC, I am so sorry you are still sick. I hope you feel better soon, wish I could do something for you. I will be sending good thoughts and hugs across the pond to you!!! hf
Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
Spittin'Cesium

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07/16/2012 09:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
this is from VE3EN's yt channel (solarham)

Quote: "unbelievable signal"



[link to www.youtube.com]

description:

After a CME impact on July 14, 2012, the Bz component of the IMF tipped south for over 24 hours. This resulted in Moderate to Strong Geomagnetic Storming and a very large Radio Aurora opening on the evening of July 15th across VHF (50mhz and 144mhz). This video captures my pileup on 6 meters. Signals ranged from very weak to very strong with heavy Aurora distortion. Contacts via the Aurora are made by directing antennas towards the Auroral Zone and the signals are reflected back. The distortion or "flutter" sound is caused by rapid changes in the ionosphere.
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


Perhaps why the Absorption on D-RAP began loading in the North before the South,as I had usually noticed.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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United Kingdom
07/16/2012 09:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ow.

I'm still really horribly ill with something akin to a Flu

: ?

I cannot compute much at all at the moment,all that helps is Music.

My boy Bilo.

[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hey SC, I am so sorry you are still sick. I hope you feel better soon, wish I could do something for you. I will be sending good thoughts and hugs across the pond to you!!! hf
 Quoting: Vesper33


Thank you Vesperrose
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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07/16/2012 09:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
lugolsiodine
Spittin'Cesium

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07/16/2012 10:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
lugolsiodine
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8055979


Did you mean this [link to en.wikipedia.org] ?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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07/16/2012 10:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Electrons appear to be taking another dive again [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 8055979
United States
07/16/2012 10:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
lugolsiodine
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8055979


Did you mean this [link to en.wikipedia.org] ?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Yes, but look a bit further. Cures what ails.
Blessings, feel better.
hf
Anonymous Coward
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07/16/2012 10:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The new active region on the eastern limb has growing rapidly since it flared ealier today.
HMI colorized magnetogram shows the expanding size and magnetic complexity. AIA171 vividly shows the transition from quiet pre-flare to active post-flare, rapid growth of loops where none previously existed. Pretty cool.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Start: 2012-07-16 12:00:00
End : now

--
RTS REDUX

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07/16/2012 10:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
2MIN News



[link to www.youtube.com]

here's the link to Ovation Prime shown in the video

[link to www.ngdc.noaa.gov]

not sure yet how to access the animation he was using scratching


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