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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Luisport

User ID: 19877205
Portugal
07/16/2012 09:49 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Kp 5 now... [link to www.theusner.eu]
BloodyT3CH

User ID: 2148885
Lithuania
07/16/2012 12:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Go to this site: [link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] Choose:MDI Continuum. Start date:20031015, End Date:20031105. These sunspots are enormous comparing to todays sunspots.
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
07/16/2012 12:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
morning everyone :)
well if anything this storm has shown everyone how the 1st few hours of a CME arrival does not tell the whole story of what it will do or how bad/good it will be
things are calming a bit now

after the Bz remaining in the -16/-12 range for around the last 24hrs, keeping this storm running strong
it has now come up some to where it is now at -1.1

we do have a nice spike then a small rise on the low energy protons at ACE
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
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07/16/2012 12:37 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
from SWPC
2012-07-16 14:13 UTC Geomagnetic Storm Winding Down

The ongoing geomagnetic storm is finally showing signs of weakening. G2 (Moderate) levels were observed during the event, but recent periods have been below the G1 (Minor) level. No further significant activity has occured, and while Region 1520 has become less of a threat, it still has the potential for further activity.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


but we already knew that :)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
joinca

User ID: 8793176
United States
07/16/2012 01:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The SDO/AIM sun with magnetic fields are back!!
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
and
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

What a weekend that was.
cool2
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
joinca

User ID: 8793176
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07/16/2012 01:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is a list of the popular links that have been used.
Hot Sun links:
GOES Xray Flux - 1 minute data: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
GOES Magnetoneter 1 minute data: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
GOES Electron Flux 5 minute data: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
GOES13 Proton Flux - 5 minute data: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Big Bear - Latest Solar Activity Warnings: [link to www.bbso.njit.edu]
Current Solar Data (from NOAA): [link to www.n3kl.org]
Boulder USGS Magnetoneter: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Terrestrial Activity Report: [link to www.solen.info]
Flare Monitor (beta): [link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
SOTERIA Flare Predictor Tool: [link to sidc.oma.be]
SOHO web site: [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
SolarHam: [link to www.solarham.net]
SolarMonitor.org: [link to www.solarmonitor.org]
CMEs detected by Cactus: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
NSO/GONG H Alpha Network Monitor movies: [link to halpha.nso.edu]
Last Measurement : [link to mms.rice.edu]
D_RAP Global 1dB Absorption: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
NOAA ACE RTSW (estimated) EPAM Protons: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Mt. Wilson Observatory: [link to obs.astro.ucla.edu]
Solarimg.org: [link to solarimg.org]
WSWA animation: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Index: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Space Weather Alerts and Warnings Timeline: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Geomagnetic K-indices: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
My Solar Alerts blog: [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
Solar Watch : Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
OVATION: Aurora model : [link to helios.swpc.noaa.gov]
Current Kp-index (provisional data): [link to www.theusner.eu]
Magnetopause Model Animation: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
Indices of Global Geomagnetic Activity: [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de]
Kp Sites List: [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de]

What all of this means: [link to www.hfunderpants.com]
cool2
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
SnakeBite

User ID: 13658852
Canada
07/16/2012 01:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Morning all! I see we are FINALLY winding down, what a storm! This has been so exciting, i wonder what Ol' Sol has in store for us coming up?.. HMMMM
shenue

User ID: 5263313
United States
07/16/2012 01:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, I think im going to make a toast out to the entire team here, NiN you have the best forum i have ever been on! Thank you for providing all of this information! *Raises shot of Jack Daniels up to the SunTard Team!rockon
 Quoting: SnakeBite


I raise my glass of iced tea in a toast to those dedicated people on this thread that keep us informed!! You all are great and I luv my 'suntard family'.

blwkss
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19720771
United States
07/16/2012 02:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, I think im going to make a toast out to the entire team here, NiN you have the best forum i have ever been on! Thank you for providing all of this information! *Raises shot of Jack Daniels up to the SunTard Team!rockon
 Quoting: SnakeBite


I raise my glass of iced tea in a toast to those dedicated people on this thread that keep us informed!! You all are great and I luv my 'suntard family'.

blwkss
 Quoting: shenue


Your ice tea to my martini smile_kiss
C3Music
User ID: 16136592
United States
07/16/2012 02:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, I think im going to make a toast out to the entire team here, NiN you have the best forum i have ever been on! Thank you for providing all of this information! *Raises shot of Jack Daniels up to the SunTard Team!rockon
 Quoting: SnakeBite


I raise my glass of iced tea in a toast to those dedicated people on this thread that keep us informed!! You all are great and I luv my 'suntard family'.

blwkss
 Quoting: shenue



dasbier
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19372178
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07/16/2012 02:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
For about 5 hours yesterday, from approximately 14:30-19:30z, the magnetopause was compressed to reside within the geosynchronous satellite orbit. This exposed many satellites to the direct solar winds. During this this time the Kp Index was at 5. Had it been at level 8 or 9, it may have risked damage the ISS (and the folks inside ) in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), as well as most other satellites.

3-Day Estimated Planetary K Index:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Graph of Magnetopause Stand-off Distance (measured in Earth radii)-
:mag standoff:

Magnetopause Simulation-
sats exposed

Now the GOES electron flux is rising quickly and we may see an alert issued soon:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I hope some of you got to see the aurora this weekend. If you did please give us a report. I have to attend to some things now, so I'll check back in this evening.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 07/16/2012 02:29 PM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19720771
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07/16/2012 02:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
For about 5 hours yesterday, from approximately 14:30-19:30z, the magnetopause was compressed to reside within the geosynchronous satellite orbit. This exposed many satellites to the direct solar winds. During this this time the Kp Index was at 5. Had it been at level 8 or 9, it may have risked damage the ISS (and the folks inside ) in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), as well as most other satellites.

3-Day Estimated Planetary K Index:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Graph of Magnetopause Stand-off Distance (measured in Earth radii)-
:mag standoff:

Magnetopause Simulation-
:sats exposed:

Now the GOES electron flux is rising quickly and we may see an alert issued soon:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I hope some of you got to see the aurora this weekend. If you did please give us a report. I have to attend to some things now, so I'll check back in this evening.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


That shot of the magnetopause says it all :phew:
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19720771
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07/16/2012 03:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Interesting, first time I've see this warning in my neck of the woods. I guess these warnings no longer only pertain to big cities

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE NEW YORK STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION HAS
ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY HEALTH ADVISORY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
DUTCHESS...ULSTER...COLUMBIA...GREENE...SCHOHARIE...ALBANY...​
RENSSELAER...SARATOGA...SCHENECTADY...WASHINGTON...FULTON...

MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN HERKIMER.
AIR QUALITY LEVELS IN OUTDOOR AIR ARE PREDICTED TO BE GREATER THAN AN
AIR QUALITY INDEX VALUE OF 100 FOR THE POLLUTANT OF OZONE. THE AIR
QUALITY INDEX...OR AQI...WAS CREATED AS AN EASY WAY TO CORRELATE
LEVELS OF DIFFERENT POLLUTANTS TO ONE SCALE. THE HIGHER THE AQI VALUE,
THE GREATER THE HEALTH CONCERN.


Very Sad.
madajs

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07/16/2012 03:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
An Estimated Kp is calculated by NOAA in near-real-time.

The official, after-the-fact, 3-hourly planetary index of geomagnetic activity is calculated twice per month by the the German GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) (Research Center for Geosciences)
 Quoting: NOAA [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Both the official Kp index (TM) at GFZ [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de] and USAF's Estimated Kp index [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] registered a max of Kp 7 plus two scales for this storm. So we saw a 3rd degree G3 storm that came within a hair of reaching Kp 8 (G4).

Pretty solid!

Last Edited by madajs on 07/16/2012 03:23 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
MamaHasAwakened

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07/16/2012 03:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, I think im going to make a toast out to the entire team here, NiN you have the best forum i have ever been on! Thank you for providing all of this information! *Raises shot of Jack Daniels up to the SunTard Team!rockon
 Quoting: SnakeBite


I raise my glass of iced tea in a toast to those dedicated people on this thread that keep us informed!! You all are great and I luv my 'suntard family'.

blwkss
 Quoting: shenue


Your ice tea to my martini smile_kiss
 Quoting: TS66


wine


And my glass of vino!
v3ngi

User ID: 16691062
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07/16/2012 03:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]

New hotness...

1517, 1515 and 1512


explosion

Last Edited by v3ngi on 07/16/2012 03:46 PM
v3ngi
madajs

User ID: 6377684
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07/16/2012 03:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Check out the difference in specificity provided by NOAA versus that provided by the official index and USAF:

[link to i49.tinypic.com]

NOAA: "G2. It's at least Kp 6 but below Kp 7."
GFZ/USAF: "Here let us narrow that down to an exact reading for you! Kp 7 plus two scales!"

NOAA has really dumbed things down =/
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
psyoptics

User ID: 14240707
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07/16/2012 03:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just a look as to what might be coming around in the future....
Returning region last day status
----------------------------------
Reg# flares level lat long area mag. state Due on
1512 no flares LOW -15 84 80 ALPHA DECLINING 18 7 2012
1513 M-flare(s) MODERATE 17 89 180 ALPHA STABLE 22 7 2012
1514 no flares LOW -14 27 10 ALPHA STABLE 22 7 2012
1515 X-flare(s) HIGH -15 89 320 BETA-GAMMA DECLINING 23 7 2012
1516 no flares LOW 20 52 0 ALPHA DECLINING 23 7 2012
1517 no flares LOW 19 53 20 BETA DECLINING 24 7 2012
1518 no flares LOW 9 13 20 BETA GROWING 30 7 2012
1519 M-flare(s) MODERATE -17 68 90 BETA GROWING 31 7 2012


[link to www.ips.gov.au]
[link to sidc.oma.be]
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Anonymous Coward
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07/16/2012 04:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like a new LDE C6.2 occurring [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] (even though they haven't acknowledged it as such).... going back to the campsite, enjoy your evening hf
mtn_mang

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07/16/2012 05:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
longest duration flare since the x on thursday that i have observed. was this 1520? sry haven't kept up

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
SnakeBite

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07/16/2012 05:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Little bit of ejection off to the left if im not mistaken
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
Starry eyes

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07/16/2012 05:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

...Ahem..
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 13079166
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07/16/2012 07:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The LDE C7.5 flare peaking at 20:03 was from the 1520 region.
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The new active region on the block gave us a CME from the eastern limb ~ 18:45, which began to show up on C2 ~ 19:30.
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] C2 n=20
Stereo behind EUIV195:
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

It also produced a C3.8 at ~ 21:39.
[link to www.lmsal.com]

--
RTS REDUX

User ID: 8620349
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07/16/2012 08:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the Northern Lights were seen as far south as Aspen Colorado last night and there are reports of a good chance of seeing them tonight in N. Arizona

[link to whotalking.com]

pictures from Aspen

[link to www.flickr.com]

time lapse from Sheboygan, WI



[link to www.youtube.com]

Last Edited by RTS REDUX on 07/16/2012 08:32 PM
"If one understands that socialism is not a share-the-wealth programme, but is in reality a method to consolidate and control the wealth, then the seeming paradox of super-rich men promoting socialism becomes no paradox at all. Instead, it becomes logical, even the perfect tool of power-seeking megalomaniacs.

Communism or more accurately, socialism, is not a movement of the downtrodden masses, but of the economic elite."

Gary Allen

NONE DARE CALL IT CONSPIRACY
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hitler was a leftist
[link to constitutionalistnc.tripod.com]


01sigao
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
07/16/2012 08:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ow.

I'm still really horribly ill with something akin to a Flu

: ?

I cannot compute much at all at the moment,all that helps is Music.

My boy Bilo.

[link to www.youtube.com]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
MamaHasAwakened

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07/16/2012 08:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ow.

I'm still really horribly ill with something akin to a Flu

: ?

I cannot compute much at all at the moment,all that helps is Music.

My boy Bilo.

[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hope you feel better soon Spittin! So sorry to hear you are sick!
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
07/16/2012 08:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Though I would like to put it out there that our Star produces Water - Anyone notice the horrific downpours nearly everywhere of late?

I am pretty sure that pentrating Solar Radiation also helps seed clouds.

I know that 'Cosmic Rays' are believed to seed our Planets Clouds.

Urgghh..ma' heed.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/16/2012 08:59 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
07/16/2012 09:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ow.

I'm still really horribly ill with something akin to a Flu

: ?

I cannot compute much at all at the moment,all that helps is Music.

My boy Bilo.

[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hope you feel better soon Spittin! So sorry to hear you are sick!
 Quoting: MamaHasAwakened


Me too!

Thanks Mama : )

I feel worse for those in the non digital ether(Internet)that are close to me,they got it to come yet themselvesstars

Big Luv to you all by the waymusic
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
07/16/2012 09:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] is just bloody hilarious(ouch) - Now we are about to ride high again..lots of trapped Fraggles.
: )

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/16/2012 09:10 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
ANHEDONIC

User ID: 16542544
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07/16/2012 09:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ow.

I'm still really horribly ill with something akin to a Flu

 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


How long ya been sick for?

Last year I was 'sick' for like 7 weeks... Went to a Doctor after 5 weeks and they gave me antibiotics which did not help at all as the 'flu-like symptoms' persisted for another 2 weeks afterwards.

It was not a cold that I had but something else.

Last Edited by ANHEDONIC on 07/16/2012 09:21 PM

"You will not be punished for your anger, you will be punished by your anger"

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