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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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07/20/2012 02:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Somes need rainfall, Others have too much. goodevil
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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07/20/2012 02:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
While things are slow I thought I would share a few photos from Mayhem fest in OK city this past wed..One of the pictures is my wife giving Clown(#6) a rose..he gave her a hug and kiss on the cheek and visited with us for a while. My son`s favorite band is Slipknot so he was totally beside himself. he also got a picture with Clown later...good times and great memories for my boy

 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


I can NOT believe this... slipknot being brought up in the sun tard thread and number 6!

hahahaha way toooooooo awesome...

glad you had fun! I love slipknot good band...
 Quoting: king fu fighter luv jet


rockon....I try to share a little of our fun with my suntard family...Some great people on this thread..It`s really the main reason I hang around on GLP...NiN`s got it going on!!

hf
shadasonic

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07/20/2012 02:31 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here is a look from STEREO Behind at 1515 and a few other regions that are going to be rotating our direction soon
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


'axe handle' coronal hole looks to be somewhat intact still
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
psyoptics

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07/20/2012 02:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here is a look from STEREO Behind at 1515 and a few other regions that are going to be rotating our direction soon
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Looks pretty busy back there ... especially in comparison to earthfacing ....
 Quoting: TS66


yes yes 1515 is still huge and can shoot off a X class...it looks bigger then 1520 now even though it is in decline.

Last updated 20 Jul 2012 03:00 UT

Current region status 19 07 2012
-----------------------
Reg# flares level lat long area mag. state
1523 no flares LOW -28 61 70 BETA DECLINING
1524 no flares LOW -17 -24 30 BETA DECLINING
1525 no flares LOW -21 -23 40 BETA STABLE

Returning region last day status
----------------------------------
Reg# flares level lat long area mag. state Due on
1512 no flares LOW -15 84 80 ALPHA DECLINING 18 7 2012
1513 M-flare(s) MODERATE 17 89 180 ALPHA STABLE 22 7 2012
1515 X-flare(s) HIGH -15 89 320 BETA-GAMMA DECLINING 23 7 2012
1517 no flares LOW 19 53 20 BETA DECLINING 24 7 2012
1518 no flares LOW 9 13 20 BETA GROWING 30 7 2012
1519 M-flare(s) MODERATE -17 81 90 BETA STABLE 31 7 2012
1516 no flares LOW 20 52 0 ALPHA DECLINING 23 7 2012
1520 X-flare(s) HIGH -17 89 300 BETA-GAMMA DECLINING 1 8 2012
1521 no flares LOW -19 85 140 BETA DECLINING 31 7 2012

[link to www.ips.gov.au]

Last Edited by psyoptics on 07/20/2012 02:49 PM
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Starry eyes

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07/20/2012 02:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
While things are slow I thought I would share a few photos from Mayhem fest in OK city this past wed..One of the pictures is my wife giving Clown(#6) a rose..he gave her a hug and kiss on the cheek and visited with us for a while. My son`s favorite band is Slipknot so he was totally beside himself. he also got a picture with Clown later...good times and great memories for my boy

clown66

clown666

daclown
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


I can NOT believe this... slipknot being brought up in the sun tard thread and number 6!

hahahaha way toooooooo awesome...

glad you had fun! I love slipknot good band...
 Quoting: king fu fighter luv jet


rockon
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
dettro99

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07/20/2012 03:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all.

Dettro99 ... Thanks for posting that. Incredible!
 Quoting: shenue



You're Welcome.. hf
Anonymous Coward
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07/20/2012 03:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Maybe of some interest.

I've been looking everywhere for the "PCAF" scale because I never really knew what it was but always saw it at the bottom of the NOAA Solar report, most often I see it at a condition "yellow" but today it was "red".

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 90/20/01
PCAF red

So I finally found the scale at

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

about half way down the page.

Polar_cap:

PCAF: A 24-hour forecast of a polar cap absorption (PCA) event. The PCA forecasts are color coded:
PCAF Green: No active sunspot region on the Sun is likely to produce a PCA event in the 24 hours.
PCAF Yellow: A sunspot region showing characteristics favorable for producing a PCA event is present on the Sun. If an energetic flare occurs in this region, the probability of a significant PCA event is very high.
PCAF Red: An energetic solar event has occurred or a proton event has been observed at satellite altitudes, and there is a high probability that a significant PCA event will result within the next 24 hours.

Anyone have any additional info on this, it's repercussions, or origins ? Is this coronal hole enough to raise the PCAF scale to red ?
Anonymous Coward
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07/20/2012 04:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Maybe of some interest.

I've been looking everywhere for the "PCAF" scale because I never really knew what it was but always saw it at the bottom of the NOAA Solar report, most often I see it at a condition "yellow" but today it was "red".

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 90/20/01
PCAF red

So I finally found the scale at

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

about half way down the page.

Polar_cap:

PCAF: A 24-hour forecast of a polar cap absorption (PCA) event. The PCA forecasts are color coded:
PCAF Green: No active sunspot region on the Sun is likely to produce a PCA event in the 24 hours.
PCAF Yellow: A sunspot region showing characteristics favorable for producing a PCA event is present on the Sun. If an energetic flare occurs in this region, the probability of a significant PCA event is very high.
PCAF Red: An energetic solar event has occurred or a proton event has been observed at satellite altitudes, and there is a high probability that a significant PCA event will result within the next 24 hours.

Anyone have any additional info on this, it's repercussions, or origins ? Is this coronal hole enough to raise the PCAF scale to red ?
 Quoting: TS66


Maybe it's time to change my line of questioning ....

blink
Luisport

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07/20/2012 06:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A Huge Sunspot Fires Off An Intense Solar Flare [link to www.businessinsider.com]
madajs

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07/20/2012 09:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And I have a quick question for anyone about the global absorption map.

This may have been the case in the past, and I've missed it, but since this seems to be a chronic condition as of late, is the northern hemisphere more "susceptible" to to proton storms than the south ???

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66

I'm guessing this is a planetary wobble thing? This time of year the northern hemisphere is leaning towards the sun, getting more exposure etc. I'm guessing the drap will look the opposite in December when the southern hemisphere is angled towards the sun? hf

Edit: Hmm yes looks like it: [link to web.archive.org]

Last Edited by madajs on 07/20/2012 09:29 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
madajs

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07/20/2012 09:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
By the way, for Isis and anyone else that was using [link to www.theusner.eu] to check out past or current Kp levels, I am happy to report that the author got back to me and acknowledged the mistake in his graphing mechanism. He's gone ahead and fixed it so you can now use his site with full confidence in it's accuracy.

The Kp readings regurgitated there are from GFZ, which is actually the provider of the official planetary Kp index that agencies such as NOAA defer to. So now that he's fixed the bug in his graphs it's a great source of data! tounge
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
nerdrage88sasr

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07/20/2012 09:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
By the way, for Isis and anyone else that was using [link to www.theusner.eu] to check out past or current Kp levels, I am happy to report that the author got back to me and acknowledged the mistake in his graphing mechanism. He's gone ahead and fixed it so you can now use his site with full confidence in it's accuracy.

The Kp readings regurgitated there are from GFZ, which is actually the provider of the official planetary Kp index that agencies such as NOAA defer to. So now that he's fixed the bug in his graphs it's a great source of data! tounge
 Quoting: madajs


Good job Madajs!
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Starry eyes

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07/20/2012 09:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi ladies and gents!

I feel like I'm dying! *Shiver*

Anyway, any suntard excitement?
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
psyoptics

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07/20/2012 09:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i still can not believe this image!
every time i see it it blows my mind.

wow this is the kinda stuff i actually make...and to think it is real.

[link to www.nasa.gov]
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Starry eyes

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07/20/2012 09:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i still can not believe this image!
every time i see it it blows my mind.

wow this is the kinda stuff i actually make...and to think it is real.

[link to www.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: psyoptics


Isn't nature beautiful?

..Except when I'm sick. Not so pretty lol!

Last Edited by Starry eyes on 07/20/2012 09:57 PM
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
shadasonic

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07/20/2012 10:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i still can not believe this image!
every time i see it it blows my mind.

wow this is the kinda stuff i actually make...and to think it is real.

[link to www.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: psyoptics


Isn't nature beautiful?

..Except when I'm sick. Not so pretty lol!
 Quoting: Starry eyes


Looks like the entry way into 'middle earth' up top, very bright

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 07/20/2012 10:31 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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07/20/2012 10:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And I have a quick question for anyone about the global absorption map.

This may have been the case in the past, and I've missed it, but since this seems to be a chronic condition as of late, is the northern hemisphere more "susceptible" to to proton storms than the south ???

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66

I'm guessing this is a planetary wobble thing? This time of year the northern hemisphere is leaning towards the sun, getting more exposure etc. I'm guessing the drap will look the opposite in December when the southern hemisphere is angled towards the sun? hf

Edit: Hmm yes looks like it: [link to web.archive.org]
 Quoting: madajs


Not quite the same , or that different, but we'll have to wait and see.... a year's not so long, and we have soooooo much to learn, thank you Madajs hf
madajs

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07/20/2012 11:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And I have a quick question for anyone about the global absorption map.

This may have been the case in the past, and I've missed it, but since this seems to be a chronic condition as of late, is the northern hemisphere more "susceptible" to to proton storms than the south ???

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66

I'm guessing this is a planetary wobble thing? This time of year the northern hemisphere is leaning towards the sun, getting more exposure etc. I'm guessing the drap will look the opposite in December when the southern hemisphere is angled towards the sun? hf

Edit: Hmm yes looks like it: [link to web.archive.org]
 Quoting: madajs


Not quite the same , or that different, but we'll have to wait and see.... a year's not so long, and we have soooooo much to learn, thank you Madajs hf
 Quoting: TS66

Hmm is this one better? [link to www.ngdc.noaa.gov]
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Isis One

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07/21/2012 12:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
By the way, for Isis and anyone else that was using [link to www.theusner.eu] to check out past or current Kp levels, I am happy to report that the author got back to me and acknowledged the mistake in his graphing mechanism. He's gone ahead and fixed it so you can now use his site with full confidence in it's accuracy.

The Kp readings regurgitated there are from GFZ, which is actually the provider of the official planetary Kp index that agencies such as NOAA defer to. So now that he's fixed the bug in his graphs it's a great source of data! tounge
 Quoting: madajs


Oh, I'm so glad I didn't miss your post madajs, thats great news. Good job helping him get it straightened out!!1hf

I think we should do a little survey now. Try to think of some major (mostly metaphysical kind of stuff) event that has happened to you over the years and then check the archive to see if there is any concordance and/or correlations. We could check big earthquakes, global incidences, your own awakening etc.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
madajs

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07/21/2012 12:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Dst index jumped up to about -25 nT around the time the July 17 CME was forecast to deliver us a glancing blow.

[link to wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp]

scared lol
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Isis One

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07/21/2012 12:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

D RAP is pretty intense again.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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07/21/2012 12:35 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And I have a quick question for anyone about the global absorption map.

This may have been the case in the past, and I've missed it, but since this seems to be a chronic condition as of late, is the northern hemisphere more "susceptible" to to proton storms than the south ???

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66

I'm guessing this is a planetary wobble thing? This time of year the northern hemisphere is leaning towards the sun, getting more exposure etc. I'm guessing the drap will look the opposite in December when the southern hemisphere is angled towards the sun? hf

Edit: Hmm yes looks like it: [link to web.archive.org]
 Quoting: madajs


Not quite the same , or that different, but we'll have to wait and see.... a year's not so long, and we have soooooo much to learn, thank you Madajs hf
 Quoting: TS66

Hmm is this one better? [link to www.ngdc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


Looks like your theory may hold some water, he he
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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07/21/2012 12:40 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is the source of these little baby B flares anyone?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Anonymous Coward
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07/21/2012 12:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is the source of these little baby B flares anyone?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Isis One


Last 3 b x-flux: [link to www.lmsal.com]
Anonymous Coward
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07/21/2012 12:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is the source of these little baby B flares anyone?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Isis One


Last 3 b x-flux: [link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1540313


scroll to the bottom of the list
Isis One

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07/21/2012 12:54 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There is attenuation at both polls on this image

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Isis One on 07/21/2012 12:55 AM
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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07/21/2012 12:57 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is the source of these little baby B flares anyone?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Isis One


Last 3 b x-flux: [link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1540313


scroll to the bottom of the list
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1540313


1525, thanks, thats a handy little site, saved ithf
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
aether

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07/21/2012 08:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
you know i can`t remember the last time i saw a headline in cosmology that started:
as predicted we discovered...........

Unexpectedly slow motions below the Sun's surface

The interior motions of the Sun are much slower than predicted. Rather than moving at the speed of a jet plane (as previously understood) the plasma flows at a walking pace..............
 Quoting: observation

[link to phys.org]
 Quoting: aether


They may have a "current inability to understand" that "one of the most fundamental physical processes in the Sun and stars" is probably NOT "convection."
 Quoting: observation


It goes deeper than this. NASA are on record as saying that magnetism probably underlies the explanation for their Big Problems of coronal heating, CMEs, sunspot cycle, etc., and now the previously accepted explanation of how the magnetic field is generated is thrown into doubt by the new findings. They thought the rapid churning of plasma in the convection layer drove a solar dynamo, but their numbers don't work if the plasma motion is only 1/100th the required strength. So now they can't explain the magnetic field itself! So now it's back to the drawing board - or maybe back to Alfven, Peratt and Jeurgens for a rethink.
 Quoting: observation

 Quoting: aether
Anonymous Coward
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07/21/2012 09:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And I have a quick question for anyone about the global absorption map.

This may have been the case in the past, and I've missed it, but since this seems to be a chronic condition as of late, is the northern hemisphere more "susceptible" to to proton storms than the south ???

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66

I'm guessing this is a planetary wobble thing? This time of year the northern hemisphere is leaning towards the sun, getting more exposure etc. I'm guessing the drap will look the opposite in December when the southern hemisphere is angled towards the sun? hf

Edit: Hmm yes looks like it: [link to web.archive.org]
 Quoting: madajs


Not quite the same , or that different, but we'll have to wait and see.... a year's not so long, and we have soooooo much to learn, thank you Madajs hf
 Quoting: TS66

Hmm is this one better? [link to www.ngdc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


That would be it, thank you. So you believe it's "wobble" ???
It makes as much sense as anything else when looking at the differences in seasons created by various angles.

Where do you get past data from ?? The only reason this caught my eye in the first place is that this Proton event has lasted as long as it has for me to take notice. I'd love to have my own reference in the future. Thank you again . hf
shadasonic

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07/21/2012 09:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
you know i can`t remember the last time i saw a headline in cosmology that started:
as predicted we discovered...........

Unexpectedly slow motions below the Sun's surface

The interior motions of the Sun are much slower than predicted. Rather than moving at the speed of a jet plane (as previously understood) the plasma flows at a walking pace..............
 Quoting: observation

[link to phys.org]
 Quoting: aether


They may have a "current inability to understand" that "one of the most fundamental physical processes in the Sun and stars" is probably NOT "convection."
 Quoting: observation


It goes deeper than this. NASA are on record as saying that magnetism probably underlies the explanation for their Big Problems of coronal heating, CMEs, sunspot cycle, etc., and now the previously accepted explanation of how the magnetic field is generated is thrown into doubt by the new findings. They thought the rapid churning of plasma in the convection layer drove a solar dynamo, but their numbers don't work if the plasma motion is only 1/100th the required strength. So now they can't explain the magnetic field itself! So now it's back to the drawing board - or maybe back to Alfven, Peratt and Jeurgens for a rethink.
 Quoting: observation

 Quoting: aether

 Quoting: aether


Great find! I believe they'll go back to the drawing board on quite a few theories. Its all postulations at this point. The times they are a changing
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan

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