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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
BloodyT3CH

User ID: 2148885
Lithuania
09/02/2012 02:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Shows mid lat aurora [link to amunters.home.xs4all.nl] Solarham shows it too [link to www.solarham.net] wtf

Last Edited by BloodyT3CH on 09/02/2012 02:03 PM
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning Suncrew- first thing I looked at this am was 1560- that is one scary looking spot! It's going to produce soon ,eh? The watch is on...
sun
Rut-roh, Bz= way south, yikes!
Luisport

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09/02/2012 02:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
shadasonic

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09/02/2012 02:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning Suncrew- first thing I looked at this am was 1560- that is one scary looking spot! It's going to produce soon ,eh? The watch is on...
sun
Rut-roh, Bz= way south, yikes!
 Quoting: SpiderJones


[link to www.solarham.net]

Its almost BGD, that center needs to wrap a little tighter, but its growth has stalled. Its still plenty big enough to give us a nice event!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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09/02/2012 02:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong flare in progress now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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09/02/2012 02:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong flare in progress now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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Germany
09/02/2012 02:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong flare in progress now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Glp effect killed it
BloodyT3CH

User ID: 2148885
Lithuania
09/02/2012 02:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Beg 02/1800 B6.7
Max 02/1810 C5.5

Last Edited by BloodyT3CH on 09/02/2012 02:13 PM
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong flare in progress now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I would love to stay and watch and see what's next ... but word of mouth and networking is what pays the mortgage .....

Have a wonderful afternoon all.

Can't wait to come back and catch up hf
BloodyT3CH

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Lithuania
09/02/2012 02:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong flare in progress now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Glp effect killed it
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8320624

Glp effect has an enormous power at this time. dance

Last Edited by BloodyT3CH on 09/02/2012 02:15 PM
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nasa is so concerned about the effects of solar wind that it just spent 680+ million to launch these new satilites and to study the effects on the Van Allen belt. Mission: to improve Space Weather predictions!!!
Is someone worried, do ya think?
[link to www.boston.com]

I know that this news is a few days old, but it is a good indicator that we have Sun trouble ahead.
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong flare in progress now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Glp effect killed it
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8320624

Glp effect has an enormous power at this time. dance
 Quoting: BloodyT3CH


LOL, if this were true, we would have nothing to worry about..... however ....

ciao
Luisport

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09/02/2012 02:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
 Quoting: Luisport


Anyone can respond me?
Hugh M Eye

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09/02/2012 02:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
El Quisqueyano

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09/02/2012 02:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
 Quoting: Luisport


Anyone can respond me?
 Quoting: Luisport


They mentioned something about Eastern time late tonight to Sept. 3rd.
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
 Quoting: Luisport


Anyone can respond me?
 Quoting: Luisport


Varying opinions .... anytime today through late tomorrow. Pieces of strewn plasma from the ejecta at any point.
BloodyT3CH

User ID: 2148885
Lithuania
09/02/2012 02:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
 Quoting: Luisport


Anyone can respond me?
 Quoting: Luisport

I believe it will hit earth tomorrow morning.
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
 Quoting: Luisport


Anyone can respond me?
 Quoting: Luisport


One of the mysteries of the universe...LOL
Luisport

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Portugal
09/02/2012 02:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ok thank's!hf
shadasonic

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09/02/2012 02:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
 Quoting: Luisport


Anyone can respond me?
 Quoting: Luisport


Solarham says tomorrow mid day, but we 're getting proton accum. from the flare and we've had our density fluctuate, so we've had early mild plasma responses. Bz has been riding south so anything moderate will give us a bit of trouble, denser plasma tonight through tomorrow

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 09/02/2012 02:23 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ramping up !!!

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
joinca

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09/02/2012 02:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 381
Issue Time: 2012 Sep 02 1755 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 380
Valid From: 2012 Sep 01 1152 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Sep 03 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Also warming up:
HF frequency affected by 1dB absorption
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
cool2
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C-7 or so?
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
BONK dubya for doom status updates
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C-7 or so?
 Quoting: SpiderJones


C5.5
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
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09/02/2012 02:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C-7 or so?
 Quoting: SpiderJones


C5.5
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


thanks!
this is definately the spot to watch today!
shadasonic

User ID: 15732022
United States
09/02/2012 02:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ramping up !!!

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: TS66


Yes indeed, we've been waiting for that one to show up
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Quakedoom and Sundoom instead of writing papers and solving equations...life as a 30 year old college student.



*Not the smilie I was going for, but a funny one nonetheless! hf
:headache:
madajs

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09/02/2012 03:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all hf

According to Solen [link to www.solen.info]

Region 11560 [N03W05] developed further with a magnetic delta structure forming in the trailing spot section. A major flare is possible. The region was the source of a long duration C2.8 event peaking before 04h UTC on September 2. This event was associated with a CME which could be aimed at Earth given the center disk location of the source. STEREO-A displays a CME, however, LASCO imagery may change the evaluation of the importance of the CME.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on September 2. A CME could reach Earth on September 3 and cause active to major storm conditions that day and on September 4. The CME observed early on September 2 could reach Earth on September 5 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.

20-60% chance of M and/or X flares
 Quoting: TS66

This 2nd CME looks to hit us square on the nose

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Nice little one-two punch, with the filament ejection hitting us tomorrow then this second cme hitting us wednesday. First one holds the arms while the second one punches the gut? : )
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
mistersplinter

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09/02/2012 03:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all hf

According to Solen [link to www.solen.info]

Region 11560 [N03W05] developed further with a magnetic delta structure forming in the trailing spot section. A major flare is possible. The region was the source of a long duration C2.8 event peaking before 04h UTC on September 2. This event was associated with a CME which could be aimed at Earth given the center disk location of the source. STEREO-A displays a CME, however, LASCO imagery may change the evaluation of the importance of the CME.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on September 2. A CME could reach Earth on September 3 and cause active to major storm conditions that day and on September 4. The CME observed early on September 2 could reach Earth on September 5 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.

20-60% chance of M and/or X flares
 Quoting: TS66

This 2nd CME looks to hit us square on the nose

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Nice little one-two punch, with the filament ejection hitting us tomorrow then this second cme hitting us wednesday. First one holds the arms while the second one punches the gut? : )
 Quoting: madajs


sure does look like it.

good catch!
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein

"The Upholder of the Cycles which supports the whole of Life, is water. In every drop of water dwells the Godhead, whom we all serve; there also dwells Life, the Soul of the "First" substance - Water - whose boundaries and banks are the capillaries that guide it and in which it circulates" -- Viktor Schauberger

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