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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
psyoptics

User ID: 11919225
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09/02/2012 01:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
now that is what it is like to look down the barrel of a loaded gun!

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
psyoptics

User ID: 11919225
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09/02/2012 01:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh, and I don't think that this ever cooled down last night

[link to www.ips.gov.au]
 Quoting: mistersplinter

it is a little lower then when i went to sleep ...at 4am...
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 01:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
looks like spaceweather added to their report on thei Filament CME
"NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of strong polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives on Sept. 3rd."

the front of the CME arrived yesterday and barley glanced or did anything at all
but, it would appear that NOAA is also watching what i am, and thats the super black dense mass from this CME that is still enrout in space
Here you can see the mass im speaking of off to the fer left in this image as it is seen at 01:47 UTC
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
and here we can see it much better in the latest HI2 image at 07:48
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

believe me, it that does hit, we will all know it

here is the images of the CME cloud on HI1 for Sept 26, 2011
that cloud caused a Kp8 Geomagnetic Storm
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
i added these to show how its more about impact
and when we see very dense mass such as what we see today, we are super lucky when it does not give a direct hit
Because if the cloud on the 2 images directly above can cause a Kp8 (with a good hit) can you just imagine what the CME cloud we see today would do if it hit us just right?
 Quoting: NiNzrez 12844841


Nin do you have more of an idea (I'd love your opinion) with the new info/images that came out today, or are we still very much dependent on that 20 minute window to see what kind of impact this may have ?
 Quoting: TS66


we are still on that 20min window, sorry :/
this CME was off to the eastern limb, but it was flung (for lack of a better word) all over the place durring ejection
because of this, the mass trajectory is so hard to calculate
it could go about anywhere
i keep trying to go over the movies of the Filament ejection on Aug 31st to see if i can tell the direction of the main mass, and i just cant say for sure at all
so we have to waite and see what shows up on ACE
but, i for one will be glues to the monitors through the day to see what shows, because if that main mass hits, wow that will show up super easy and leave no question as to it's arrival
Everything will spike
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks Nin ... it's much appreciated. None of us have that magic crystal ball, and your knowledge is worth so much more.

hf
BloodyT3CH

User ID: 2148885
Lithuania
09/02/2012 02:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Shows mid lat aurora [link to amunters.home.xs4all.nl] Solarham shows it too [link to www.solarham.net] wtf

Last Edited by BloodyT3CH on 09/02/2012 02:03 PM
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning Suncrew- first thing I looked at this am was 1560- that is one scary looking spot! It's going to produce soon ,eh? The watch is on...
sun
Rut-roh, Bz= way south, yikes!
Luisport

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09/02/2012 02:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
shadasonic

User ID: 15732022
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09/02/2012 02:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning Suncrew- first thing I looked at this am was 1560- that is one scary looking spot! It's going to produce soon ,eh? The watch is on...
sun
Rut-roh, Bz= way south, yikes!
 Quoting: SpiderJones


[link to www.solarham.net]

Its almost BGD, that center needs to wrap a little tighter, but its growth has stalled. Its still plenty big enough to give us a nice event!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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09/02/2012 02:11 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong flare in progress now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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09/02/2012 02:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong flare in progress now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 8320624
Germany
09/02/2012 02:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong flare in progress now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Glp effect killed it
BloodyT3CH

User ID: 2148885
Lithuania
09/02/2012 02:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Beg 02/1800 B6.7
Max 02/1810 C5.5

Last Edited by BloodyT3CH on 09/02/2012 02:13 PM
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong flare in progress now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I would love to stay and watch and see what's next ... but word of mouth and networking is what pays the mortgage .....

Have a wonderful afternoon all.

Can't wait to come back and catch up hf
BloodyT3CH

User ID: 2148885
Lithuania
09/02/2012 02:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong flare in progress now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Glp effect killed it
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8320624

Glp effect has an enormous power at this time. dance

Last Edited by BloodyT3CH on 09/02/2012 02:15 PM
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nasa is so concerned about the effects of solar wind that it just spent 680+ million to launch these new satilites and to study the effects on the Van Allen belt. Mission: to improve Space Weather predictions!!!
Is someone worried, do ya think?
[link to www.boston.com]

I know that this news is a few days old, but it is a good indicator that we have Sun trouble ahead.
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong flare in progress now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Glp effect killed it
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8320624

Glp effect has an enormous power at this time. dance
 Quoting: BloodyT3CH


LOL, if this were true, we would have nothing to worry about..... however ....

ciao
Luisport

User ID: 23043497
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09/02/2012 02:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
 Quoting: Luisport


Anyone can respond me?
Hugh M Eye

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09/02/2012 02:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
El Quisqueyano

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09/02/2012 02:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
 Quoting: Luisport


Anyone can respond me?
 Quoting: Luisport


They mentioned something about Eastern time late tonight to Sept. 3rd.
[link to skreened.com]

The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers! And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee!" Ezekiel 25:17

"Worst come to worst, my PEOPLES come first" Dilated Peoples
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
 Quoting: Luisport


Anyone can respond me?
 Quoting: Luisport


Varying opinions .... anytime today through late tomorrow. Pieces of strewn plasma from the ejecta at any point.
BloodyT3CH

User ID: 2148885
Lithuania
09/02/2012 02:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
 Quoting: Luisport


Anyone can respond me?
 Quoting: Luisport

I believe it will hit earth tomorrow morning.
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
 Quoting: Luisport


Anyone can respond me?
 Quoting: Luisport


One of the mysteries of the universe...LOL
Luisport

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09/02/2012 02:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ok thank's!hf
shadasonic

User ID: 15732022
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09/02/2012 02:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
 Quoting: Luisport


Anyone can respond me?
 Quoting: Luisport


Solarham says tomorrow mid day, but we 're getting proton accum. from the flare and we've had our density fluctuate, so we've had early mild plasma responses. Bz has been riding south so anything moderate will give us a bit of trouble, denser plasma tonight through tomorrow

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 09/02/2012 02:23 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ramping up !!!

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
joinca

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09/02/2012 02:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 381
Issue Time: 2012 Sep 02 1755 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 380
Valid From: 2012 Sep 01 1152 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Sep 03 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Also warming up:
HF frequency affected by 1dB absorption
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
cool2
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C-7 or so?
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
BONK dubya for doom status updates
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C-7 or so?
 Quoting: SpiderJones


C5.5
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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United States
09/02/2012 02:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C-7 or so?
 Quoting: SpiderJones


C5.5
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


thanks!
this is definately the spot to watch today!
shadasonic

User ID: 15732022
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09/02/2012 02:40 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ramping up !!!

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: TS66


Yes indeed, we've been waiting for that one to show up
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan

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