SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
mistersplinter User ID: 12261497 United States 09/10/2012 12:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | So it appears there is a some action as a result of that bit of IMF,look at the Closed Field(in Red)looping behind [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] which appears to have pulled a bit of the Polar Cap Field out in front to connect with the next bit of IMF that is incoming [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] Quoting: Spittin'Cesium I'll keep on watching : ) . To update the effects of that IMF on our Fields - [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] The site: [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] . last 40 looped [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] If you look on that loop at these 3 frames, there is a big loss of polarcap field lines. Not sure if it means anything but caught the eye as it played through. 03:09:37 03:13:37 03:17:37 "I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1540313 United States 09/10/2012 01:41 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hot off the presses.... Quoting: Hugh M Eye Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 254 Issued at 0030Z on 10 Sep 2012 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 09 Sep I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 09/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 1562 S21W88 105 0120 Dao 02 01 Beta 1564 S13W53 070 0140 Eai 12 19 Beta-Gamma 1566 N23E01 015 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha 1567 N17E27 349 0050 Dao 07 08 Beta 1568 S11W28 044 0050 Dso 03 08 Beta-Gamma [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Newly numbered region AR1568 can be seen about 30 degrees east of 1564. This is very close to the spot of today's filament eruption. AR1568 is classified as Beta-Gamma. Also, another active region is coming over the southeast limb now and may become AR1569 tomorrow night. HMI Intensitygram: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I like those two Hugh, i've got a feeling about them. 'Their numbers sent the dice tumbling in my head' - Matt, The Wheel of Time \ 1564 and 1568 are close enough to couple, and I believe they will share magnetic field lines when they flare, I bet it will happen soon. They are both Beta-Gamma now so... soon. Both are headed to Nin's super spot ,too. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1540313 United States 09/10/2012 02:11 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I just came across quite a good Electron data Sim. for the US that I had'nt used before [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] just click on 'Animation' to see both Todays and Yesterdays US Electrons. Quoting: Spittin'Cesium For example,Yesterdays looks quite interesting on this one [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] and this [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] : ) Nice, I could get that one to load!!! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1540313 United States 09/10/2012 02:15 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1514992 United States 09/10/2012 06:52 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Good morning all All looks quite this morning. Quick space weather forecast from the US Dept of Commerce () IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 3 (10 - 12 September) with a chance for unsettled levels and a slight chance for active levels on day 3 due to the onset of a coronal hole high-speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green Looks like they have some faith in these BG guys. Looks like 1564 is responsible for our last 2 C flares at @ 9:20 ad 10:20 UTC |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1514992 United States 09/10/2012 06:56 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I'm trying to upload a smilie, but if you take a look at the SDO movie red for the last 3 hours, you will see a large clump of plasma lifting off the (very) south, west region. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 5795678 United States 09/10/2012 07:06 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This however my friends this concerns me a great deal. Quoting: TS66 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I'm trying to upload a smilie, but if you take a look at the SDO movie red for the last 3 hours, you will see a large clump of plasma lifting off the (very) south, west region. Wow nice catch.....! Earth directed? |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1514992 United States 09/10/2012 07:13 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This however my friends this concerns me a great deal. Quoting: TS66 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I'm trying to upload a smilie, but if you take a look at the SDO movie red for the last 3 hours, you will see a large clump of plasma lifting off the (very) south, west region. Wow nice catch.....! Earth directed? Being a 2D image, and the fact it is so far south, we'd have to wait and see which way it goes. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1514992 United States 09/10/2012 07:32 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1514992 United States 09/10/2012 07:41 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | From the shot at 15 minute intervals it appears to moving NW, however because it is 2D, I can't discern if there is any "forward" motion (if any) Quoting: TS66 The shot from 11:31:20 looks as if it may be curling up around the earth facing side (front) It hasn't let loose as of yet, so if we are lucky it will just shoot back to, and reabsorb back into old sol .... |
Gabriel User ID: 4384768 United States 09/10/2012 07:48 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Quoting: shadasonic This far into our solar max we should have a 'Charlie Brown T-shirt' stripe of SS along our suns equator, its just not firing like a polarity juxtaposed cycle should. I know we've got new blood coming around the corner, but this is off. Sorry, I know i've only mentioned this a dozen times, its just bothersome and it pulls on my mind! just a little history on the solar cycles. Until recently it was thought that there were 28 cycles in the 309 years between 1699 and 2008, giving an average length of 11.04 years, but recent research has showed that the longest of these (1784–1799) seems actually to have been two cycles, so that the average length is only around 10.66 years. Cycles as short as 9 years and as long as 14years have been observed, and in the double cycle of 1784-1799 one of the two component cycles had to be less than 8 years in length. Significant variations in amplitude also occur. Solar maximum and solar minimum refer respectively to epochs of maximum and minimum sunspot counts. Individual sunspot cycles are partitioned from one minimum to the next. [link to en.wikipedia.org] now this will not easy our mind by might shed some light. we have only less then 400 years of data to base how these cycles work and most references are to the average....11 well 8 to 14 have occurred. and this is only in the last....well just over 300 years. this might be enough for the high and mighty minds at NASA to deal with....but not me. what if..... what if there comes say every 500 years a odd cycle. a 24 years cycle? who would know? what if every 1000 there is a split cycle? one that shows all signs of decline as if it is over then spike way up? there is no way to know. now what if......? what if every 4,000 years....well [fill in this blank] i am watching as much as i can. my heart tell me the Mayans knew something more about our sun then all the knowledge have have gathered in the last 300 years. every time i search into what the Mayans know about their cycle ending this years i keep ending up with the sun. so i keep watching, recording, and learning. but must of all i feel the need to look to the past here, trying to see what our ancients knew about the powers of our sun. how and why they tacked it and honored it. truly if we can only base our knowledge on the sun from 300 years of data....our known model will be riddled with holes and misconceptions. we need not think here with the high and mighty...they have set themselves up for failure. excellent post |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1514992 United States 09/10/2012 07:54 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
AkivaJeff User ID: 19183578 United States 09/10/2012 07:55 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Quoting: shadasonic This far into our solar max we should have a 'Charlie Brown T-shirt' stripe of SS along our suns equator, its just not firing like a polarity juxtaposed cycle should. I know we've got new blood coming around the corner, but this is off. Sorry, I know i've only mentioned this a dozen times, its just bothersome and it pulls on my mind! just a little history on the solar cycles. Until recently it was thought that there were 28 cycles in the 309 years between 1699 and 2008, giving an average length of 11.04 years, but recent research has showed that the longest of these (1784–1799) seems actually to have been two cycles, so that the average length is only around 10.66 years. Cycles as short as 9 years and as long as 14years have been observed, and in the double cycle of 1784-1799 one of the two component cycles had to be less than 8 years in length. Significant variations in amplitude also occur. Solar maximum and solar minimum refer respectively to epochs of maximum and minimum sunspot counts. Individual sunspot cycles are partitioned from one minimum to the next. [link to en.wikipedia.org] now this will not easy our mind by might shed some light. we have only less then 400 years of data to base how these cycles work and most references are to the average....11 well 8 to 14 have occurred. and this is only in the last....well just over 300 years. this might be enough for the high and mighty minds at NASA to deal with....but not me. what if..... what if there comes say every 500 years a odd cycle. a 24 years cycle? who would know? what if every 1000 there is a split cycle? one that shows all signs of decline as if it is over then spike way up? there is no way to know. now what if......? what if every 4,000 years....well [fill in this blank] i am watching as much as i can. my heart tell me the Mayans knew something more about our sun then all the knowledge have have gathered in the last 300 years. every time i search into what the Mayans know about their cycle ending this years i keep ending up with the sun. so i keep watching, recording, and learning. but must of all i feel the need to look to the past here, trying to see what our ancients knew about the powers of our sun. how and why they tacked it and honored it. truly if we can only base our knowledge on the sun from 300 years of data....our known model will be riddled with holes and misconceptions. we need not think here with the high and mighty...they have set themselves up for failure. excellent post Agree. Would it be possible (under the right speed, size, trajectory, etc.) that the sun could actually send a "blob" into orbit with enough mass to stay together for a while? Just a wil-ass thought but we know the sun has potential to do many things that man has not witnessed. Life is short... But it's WIDE. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1514992 United States 09/10/2012 07:59 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
AkivaJeff User ID: 19183578 United States 09/10/2012 08:02 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Seriously Jeff ??? Have you seen my posts above ?? Clink on a link and look at the "blob of sun" shooting out right now. Quoting: TS66 Yes I have been reading your excellent posts. That is what prompted me to wonder if one of these could actually attain an orbit. Thank you TS. Life is short... But it's WIDE. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1514992 United States 09/10/2012 08:06 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Seriously Jeff ??? Have you seen my posts above ?? Clink on a link and look at the "blob of sun" shooting out right now. Quoting: TS66 Yes I have been reading your excellent posts. That is what prompted me to wonder if one of these could actually attain an orbit. Thank you TS. These eruptions defy orbits due to sheer velocity. Remember the 31st when the filament erupted ??? That was pure plasma that hit earth. If a sun eruption detaches and it's trajectory is aimed at earth, it will hit. |
Ozark User ID: 1353975 United States 09/10/2012 08:10 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Gabriel User ID: 4384768 United States 09/10/2012 08:14 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Quoting: shadasonic This far into our solar max we should have a 'Charlie Brown T-shirt' stripe of SS along our suns equator, its just not firing like a polarity juxtaposed cycle should. I know we've got new blood coming around the corner, but this is off. Sorry, I know i've only mentioned this a dozen times, its just bothersome and it pulls on my mind! Shad... think of it as i do for earthquakes around the Pacific Rim..... If we see no medium releases for days on end, thats when i get most worried for the single or double major release earthquakes.... energy is stored and needs to be released, this solar max has not yet released the energy it needs to and when it does it will be all at once. |
AkivaJeff User ID: 19183578 United States 09/10/2012 08:16 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Seriously Jeff ??? Have you seen my posts above ?? Clink on a link and look at the "blob of sun" shooting out right now. Quoting: TS66 Yes I have been reading your excellent posts. That is what prompted me to wonder if one of these could actually attain an orbit. Thank you TS. These eruptions defy orbits due to sheer velocity. Remember the 31st when the filament erupted ??? That was pure plasma that hit earth. If a sun eruption detaches and it's trajectory is aimed at earth, it will hit. Heck yes I remeber. Awesome. The one you spotted today is also very cool. It looks like it could just detatch itself and lift off slowly. Still not enough mass to hold together and would be pushed around by solar winds, too. Just a fantasy thought on my part about putting a flaming ball into an actual orbit Life is short... But it's WIDE. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1514992 United States 09/10/2012 08:20 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1514992 United States 09/10/2012 08:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] EDIT: Can't see it here, you have to go to the SDO site movie, red, 9 UTC ~ Now 1024 res. [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] |
AkivaJeff User ID: 19183578 United States 09/10/2012 08:25 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1514992 United States 09/10/2012 08:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
shadasonic User ID: 15732022 United States 09/10/2012 08:31 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This however my friends this concerns me a great deal. Quoting: TS66 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I'm trying to upload a smilie, but if you take a look at the SDO movie red for the last 3 hours, you will see a large clump of plasma lifting off the (very) south, west region. I love those shots,good catch TS,and good morning! Seems we've got plasma whipping around all over “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
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shadasonic User ID: 15732022 United States 09/10/2012 08:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Quoting: shadasonic This far into our solar max we should have a 'Charlie Brown T-shirt' stripe of SS along our suns equator, its just not firing like a polarity juxtaposed cycle should. I know we've got new blood coming around the corner, but this is off. Sorry, I know i've only mentioned this a dozen times, its just bothersome and it pulls on my mind! Shad... think of it as i do for earthquakes around the Pacific Rim..... If we see no medium releases for days on end, thats when i get most worried for the single or double major release earthquakes.... energy is stored and needs to be released, this solar max has not yet released the energy it needs to and when it does it will be all at once. Thanks Gabe,patience is a virtue that I haven't grasped!lol It makes perfect sense,theres a certain energy expenditure needed for that transition and we haven't seen it yet. So i'll semi-patiently wait. “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |