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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 03:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


[link to www.spaceweather.com]

They are saying CH winds to hit the 22nd to the 23rd
 Quoting: shadasonic


I know, this is weird, what is the source???wtf
 Quoting: SpiderJones


The non numbered coronal hole, the triangle fella almost at nins corner(60degree line)
 Quoting: shadasonic


according to SWPC the only thing we have coming in is from the coronal hole winds

Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2012
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (20
September). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active intervals is expected for days two and three (21 - 22
September) as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into a
geoeffective position.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

also again lets not, they say:
Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. New Region 1576
(S22E62) produced a few C-class flares, the largest a C2/Sf at
19/1512Z. Both Region 1576 and 1575 (N10E62) continue to rotate
onto the disk and appear to have beta magnetic characteristics. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period.
 Quoting: NiNzrez 12844841


Yes, very energetic coronal hole becoming more geoeffective, The proton count was close to 10 c/cm just a while ago, and I thought I may have missed a CME, but it is the hole blowing a hot wind at us!
shadasonic

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09/20/2012 03:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Back to work, going out to inhale some barium and Al+++. At lest its a beautiful day. Peace to all!

One other thought the shrinking of the magnetosphere could be in direct relation to the slow down of the geodynamo core,loss of electromagnetism......alright I'll say it pole flip.



 Quoting: shadasonic


Lets say they are trailing this heavy for a medium size CH wind on the way, what are they going to do as the magsphere increasingly reduces and we start getting 'real' storms.
Maybe they are just trying to get us through this max, or they know something big is transpiring and are doing all they can for now. The poles are increasing speed big time, maybe we need a flip for our magnetism to recharge. It would be nice to have just a little more info, but we gotta dig it up ourselves. Its a good thing we have such a unique diverse group of intelligent people on this thread, KUDOS to you all and I'm out for awhile!headbang
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if it's CH536.... whatever it is set to hit us was already on it's way on the 17th according to Enlil.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 03:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if it's CH536.... whatever it is set to hit us was already on it's way on the 17th according to Enlil.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


Yeah, what we have been talking about, it's just a very strong wind from a large coronal hole becoming increasingly geoeffective, had me going for a while trying to figure out if I missed something.
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 04:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if it's CH536.... whatever it is set to hit us was already on it's way on the 17th according to Enlil.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


Yeah, what we have been talking about, it's just a very strong wind from a large coronal hole becoming increasingly geoeffective, had me going for a while trying to figure out if I missed something.
 Quoting: SpiderJones


We had this conversation last night with no real idea.

So which coronal hole did you think it originated from ??? We already got a blast last night resulting in kp4 without it showing up on Enlil or any other source (except for a vague references), yet this hit is coming from a CH and it is shown on Enlil since at least the 17th ???

Something doesn't make sense.
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 04:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if it's CH536.... whatever it is set to hit us was already on it's way on the 17th according to Enlil.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


Yeah, what we have been talking about, it's just a very strong wind from a large coronal hole becoming increasingly geoeffective, had me going for a while trying to figure out if I missed something.
 Quoting: SpiderJones


They show CH winds on the Enlil model?
muse_1111

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09/20/2012 04:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm always curious to when they do/don't spray us. I am outside of Dallas, and I just walked outside to look. Not a single cloud in the sky. Why do they choose some areas and not others? They frequently lay chemtrails around Dallas, but none today??

They decided to let us fry... burnit
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 04:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if it's CH536.... whatever it is set to hit us was already on it's way on the 17th according to Enlil.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


Yeah, what we have been talking about, it's just a very strong wind from a large coronal hole becoming increasingly geoeffective, had me going for a while trying to figure out if I missed something.
 Quoting: SpiderJones


They show CH winds on the Enlil model?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12844841


That's my question, I've never seen it before.
NiNzrez
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09/20/2012 04:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if it's CH536.... whatever it is set to hit us was already on it's way on the 17th according to Enlil.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


Yeah, what we have been talking about, it's just a very strong wind from a large coronal hole becoming increasingly geoeffective, had me going for a while trying to figure out if I missed something.
 Quoting: SpiderJones


They show CH winds on the Enlil model?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12844841


That's my question, I've never seen it before.
 Quoting: TS66


either have i
does someone have any old enlil model links for when there was a CH earth facing?
i only seen CMEs on the enlil model before
but its not my fav model, so i could be wrong

here is a image i see on the 17th of a CME
earth off to the left
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

i will need to go through info and images a bit better here in a few when i have time to sit and look
busy time of the day here right now
joinca

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09/20/2012 04:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
From the SDO blog site:
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
A "Jovial" Transit of Venus
If you lived on Jupiter you would be able to see a transit of Venus tomorrow. It might look something like the one we saw in June. Here is an example in SDO AIA 171, a time-lapse still of the black disk of Venus moving across the Sun. Even though the transit can't be seen from Earth, the Hubble Space Telescope may be able to see the small decrease in sunlight reflected off Jupiter toward Earth during the transit. SDO will help by telling the scientists how the Sun's brightness changes during the transit. Given how quiet the Sun has been of late, that should be pretty easy for us to do. Jupiter is ahead of the Earth in its orbit around the Sun, so the quiet side is rotating to face Jupiter, even as a new active region rotates into the view of the Earth.
First contact is at 0456 UTC, mid-transit is 0953 UTC and 4th contact is 1451 UTC (all September 20 UTC). That means the transit at Jupiter lasts almost 10 hours (compared to about 7.5 hours for the June 2012 Venus transit at Earth).
The full article is here: [link to sdoisgo.blogspot.com]
cool2
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 04:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if it's CH536.... whatever it is set to hit us was already on it's way on the 17th according to Enlil.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


Yeah, what we have been talking about, it's just a very strong wind from a large coronal hole becoming increasingly geoeffective, had me going for a while trying to figure out if I missed something.
 Quoting: SpiderJones


They show CH winds on the Enlil model?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12844841


That's my question, I've never seen it before.
 Quoting: TS66


The model shows solar wind streams and CME's- this coronal hole is just very strong- and aimed at us more. I believe it's from the CH near the Solar equator. I HAVE been known to be wrong1rof1
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 04:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
From the SDO blog site:
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
A "Jovial" Transit of Venus
If you lived on Jupiter you would be able to see a transit of Venus tomorrow. It might look something like the one we saw in June. Here is an example in SDO AIA 171, a time-lapse still of the black disk of Venus moving across the Sun. Even though the transit can't be seen from Earth, the Hubble Space Telescope may be able to see the small decrease in sunlight reflected off Jupiter toward Earth during the transit. SDO will help by telling the scientists how the Sun's brightness changes during the transit. Given how quiet the Sun has been of late, that should be pretty easy for us to do. Jupiter is ahead of the Earth in its orbit around the Sun, so the quiet side is rotating to face Jupiter, even as a new active region rotates into the view of the Earth.
First contact is at 0456 UTC, mid-transit is 0953 UTC and 4th contact is 1451 UTC (all September 20 UTC). That means the transit at Jupiter lasts almost 10 hours (compared to about 7.5 hours for the June 2012 Venus transit at Earth).
The full article is here: [link to sdoisgo.blogspot.com]
cool2
 Quoting: joinca


Thanks!
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 04:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Top model shows density of solar output, bottom one shows speed, this model is usually right-on. It is easy to read which is why I like it.

I have to go now, catch you all later.rockon
SnakeBite

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09/20/2012 04:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Karma4EVERYONE!!!LoveYOUall!LolIactuallyGETexcitedTOcomeTOthi​sTHREADandCATCHupEVERYday
KeepUPtheGREATworkTEAM!5anorespect
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 07:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Are we still getting a constant hit from something at the moment???

For the last 2 days, the Northern lights have been over Iceland on the Katla webcam...Also, for the last 2 days, Iceland has been having a strong EQ swarm taking place..

[link to en.vedur.is]

Could they be linked??
madajs

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09/20/2012 07:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if it's CH536.... whatever it is set to hit us was already on it's way on the 17th according to Enlil.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


Yeah, what we have been talking about, it's just a very strong wind from a large coronal hole becoming increasingly geoeffective, had me going for a while trying to figure out if I missed something.
 Quoting: SpiderJones


They show CH winds on the Enlil model?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12844841


That's my question, I've never seen it before.
 Quoting: TS66

Yeah, Enlil models the solar wind streams (the spirals you can see imaged). You can see on the model how the spiral hitting us on the 22nd is far more dense than usual. Thus the spike in forecasted readings for that time.

Also, the catch-all Enlil model is currently displaying one of those far side CME's. Looks pretty fast. [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 08:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Yeah, what we have been talking about, it's just a very strong wind from a large coronal hole becoming increasingly geoeffective, had me going for a while trying to figure out if I missed something.
 Quoting: SpiderJones


They show CH winds on the Enlil model?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12844841


That's my question, I've never seen it before.
 Quoting: TS66

Yeah, Enlil models the solar wind streams (the spirals you can see imaged). You can see on the model how the spiral hitting us on the 22nd is far more dense than usual. Thus the spike in forecasted readings for that time.

Also, the catch-all Enlil model is currently displaying one of those far side CME's. Looks pretty fast. [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: madajs


Please indulge me and understand my confusion. We are most effected by the solar winds, density, and temp of a Coronal Hole as it faces earth, a direct influence so to speak.

This spiral has been spinning for, and it's hit has been predicted by the Enlil model for at least 5 days, and without the Enlil models available prior to the 17th, we have no date of origin !!! So that would mean that this solar wind originated from a random CH as early as the 14th, 15th, or 16th ??? It just doesn't make sense.

That is not typical of any Coronal Hole Solar Wind I have ever seen.

If CH536 earth facing at this moment were to send solar winds right now they would be felt within 24 hours, not 6 or 7 days from now.
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 08:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This would explain yesterdays Kp4 according to the US Commerce Dept.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels
with a period of active conditions observed between 19/2100 - 2400Z.
The period began with wind speeds, as measured at the ACE
spacecraft, steady at 400 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly south at about -10
nT. At about 19/2300Z, wind speed and temperature indicated slight
increases while IMF Bz began fluctuating between +8 to -6 nT. By
about 20/0100Z, the phi angle changed from a positive (away) to a
negative (toward) orientation. These changes were all indicative of
a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high
speed stream.
By the end of the period, wind velocities were steady
at about 575 km/s while IMF Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT.
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 08:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
2days and countin!
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 08:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
2days and countin!
shadasonic

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09/20/2012 08:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


They show CH winds on the Enlil model?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12844841


That's my question, I've never seen it before.
 Quoting: TS66

Yeah, Enlil models the solar wind streams (the spirals you can see imaged). You can see on the model how the spiral hitting us on the 22nd is far more dense than usual. Thus the spike in forecasted readings for that time.

Also, the catch-all Enlil model is currently displaying one of those far side CME's. Looks pretty fast. [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: madajs


Please indulge me and understand my confusion. We are most effected by the solar winds, density, and temp of a Coronal Hole as it faces earth, a direct influence so to speak.

This spiral has been spinning for, and it's hit has been predicted by the Enlil model for at least 5 days, and without the Enlil models available prior to the 17th, we have no date of origin !!! So that would mean that this solar wind originated from a random CH as early as the 14th, 15th, or 16th ??? It just doesn't make sense.

That is not typical of any Coronal Hole Solar Wind I have ever seen.

If CH536 earth facing at this moment were to send solar winds right now they would be felt within 24 hours, not 6 or 7 days from now.
 Quoting: TS66


I'm in agreement this just came out of nowhere and the density prediction is very high for a coronal hole and if we were to recieve this from 536 it would continue and not spike back up in 2 days? Seems very weird
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
madajs

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09/20/2012 08:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


They show CH winds on the Enlil model?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12844841


That's my question, I've never seen it before.
 Quoting: TS66

Yeah, Enlil models the solar wind streams (the spirals you can see imaged). You can see on the model how the spiral hitting us on the 22nd is far more dense than usual. Thus the spike in forecasted readings for that time.

Also, the catch-all Enlil model is currently displaying one of those far side CME's. Looks pretty fast. [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: madajs


Please indulge me and understand my confusion. We are most effected by the solar winds, density, and temp of a Coronal Hole as it faces earth, a direct influence so to speak.

This spiral has been spinning for, and it's hit has been predicted by the Enlil model for at least 5 days, and without the Enlil models available prior to the 17th, we have no date of origin !!! So that would mean that this solar wind originated from a random CH as early as the 14th, 15th, or 16th ??? It just doesn't make sense.

That is not typical of any Coronal Hole Solar Wind I have ever seen.

If CH536 earth facing at this moment were to send solar winds right now they would be felt within 24 hours, not 6 or 7 days from now.
 Quoting: TS66

:) Hey TS. I'm not sure I follow you. The stream that will hit us on the 22nd originates from the CH that is currently earth facing. Enlil offers us both a chart of the expected density as well as an animation showing the stream's approach to Earth.
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
whiteangel

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09/20/2012 09:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: einsteinsfly


Mars and Saturn I think, visible a couple degrees from the cresent moon just after sunset in North America yesterday and maybe today.
 Quoting: Isis One


[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Venus and Jupiter.

Again, thank you Hugh for providing the link!
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 09:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


That's my question, I've never seen it before.
 Quoting: TS66

Yeah, Enlil models the solar wind streams (the spirals you can see imaged). You can see on the model how the spiral hitting us on the 22nd is far more dense than usual. Thus the spike in forecasted readings for that time.

Also, the catch-all Enlil model is currently displaying one of those far side CME's. Looks pretty fast. [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: madajs


Please indulge me and understand my confusion. We are most effected by the solar winds, density, and temp of a Coronal Hole as it faces earth, a direct influence so to speak.

This spiral has been spinning for, and it's hit has been predicted by the Enlil model for at least 5 days, and without the Enlil models available prior to the 17th, we have no date of origin !!! So that would mean that this solar wind originated from a random CH as early as the 14th, 15th, or 16th ??? It just doesn't make sense.

That is not typical of any Coronal Hole Solar Wind I have ever seen.

If CH536 earth facing at this moment were to send solar winds right now they would be felt within 24 hours, not 6 or 7 days from now.
 Quoting: TS66

:) Hey TS. I'm not sure I follow you. The stream that will hit us on the 22nd originates from the CH that is currently earth facing. Enlil offers us both a chart of the expected density as well as an animation showing the stream's approach to Earth.
 Quoting: madajs


But the animation of density, wind and tempt that will hit on the 22nd begins and is shown on the 17th in the model.

They cannot predict a hit of something specific that has not happened yet. Not to mention this is the same model they have had for a couple of days now, like we missed a CME or whatever it originated from.
madajs

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09/20/2012 09:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...

Yeah, Enlil models the solar wind streams (the spirals you can see imaged). You can see on the model how the spiral hitting us on the 22nd is far more dense than usual. Thus the spike in forecasted readings for that time.

Also, the catch-all Enlil model is currently displaying one of those far side CME's. Looks pretty fast. [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: madajs


Please indulge me and understand my confusion. We are most effected by the solar winds, density, and temp of a Coronal Hole as it faces earth, a direct influence so to speak.

This spiral has been spinning for, and it's hit has been predicted by the Enlil model for at least 5 days, and without the Enlil models available prior to the 17th, we have no date of origin !!! So that would mean that this solar wind originated from a random CH as early as the 14th, 15th, or 16th ??? It just doesn't make sense.

That is not typical of any Coronal Hole Solar Wind I have ever seen.

If CH536 earth facing at this moment were to send solar winds right now they would be felt within 24 hours, not 6 or 7 days from now.
 Quoting: TS66

:) Hey TS. I'm not sure I follow you. The stream that will hit us on the 22nd originates from the CH that is currently earth facing. Enlil offers us both a chart of the expected density as well as an animation showing the stream's approach to Earth.
 Quoting: madajs


But the animation of density, wind and tempt that will hit on the 22nd begins and is shown on the 17th in the model.

They cannot predict a hit of something specific that has not happened yet.
 Quoting: TS66

Correct me if I misunderstand, I'm still not 100% sure if we're on the same page. What I see is, the dense stream from this CH "spiralling" towards earth as the Sun rotates it towards us. The model, which begins 9-16 12:00, shows that the CH was already emitting a strong stream well before it came around to face earth directly.

So it's not that it shot out a burst on the 16th that took until the 22nd to arrive. It's that it's been gushing nonstop since at least the 16th, and was still gushing when it became earth facing, so on the 22nd we're gonna get wet.

:)
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Hugh M Eye

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09/20/2012 09:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This would explain yesterdays Kp4 according to the US Commerce Dept.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels
with a period of active conditions observed between 19/2100 - 2400Z.
The period began with wind speeds, as measured at the ACE
spacecraft, steady at 400 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly south at about -10
nT. At about 19/2300Z, wind speed and temperature indicated slight
increases while IMF Bz began fluctuating between +8 to -6 nT. By
about 20/0100Z, the phi angle changed from a positive (away) to a
negative (toward) orientation. These changes were all indicative of
a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high
speed stream.
By the end of the period, wind velocities were steady
at about 575 km/s while IMF Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT.
 Quoting: TS66


I'm sure you remember this from the 16th....from the Spaceweather.com TimeMachine. If you scroll down to the coronal hole diagram on the left margin, you can see the position of 3 coronal holes spread apart by latitude and longitude. They don't always line up neatly with the Parker Spiral streams and the ambient SW, hence the "co-rotating interaction regions" (CIRS).

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

More on CIRS:

[link to www.physics.usyd.edu.au]

[link to ase.tufts.edu]
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Anonymous Coward
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09/20/2012 09:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Please indulge me and understand my confusion. We are most effected by the solar winds, density, and temp of a Coronal Hole as it faces earth, a direct influence so to speak.

This spiral has been spinning for, and it's hit has been predicted by the Enlil model for at least 5 days, and without the Enlil models available prior to the 17th, we have no date of origin !!! So that would mean that this solar wind originated from a random CH as early as the 14th, 15th, or 16th ??? It just doesn't make sense.

That is not typical of any Coronal Hole Solar Wind I have ever seen.

If CH536 earth facing at this moment were to send solar winds right now they would be felt within 24 hours, not 6 or 7 days from now.
 Quoting: TS66

:) Hey TS. I'm not sure I follow you. The stream that will hit us on the 22nd originates from the CH that is currently earth facing. Enlil offers us both a chart of the expected density as well as an animation showing the stream's approach to Earth.
 Quoting: madajs


But the animation of density, wind and tempt that will hit on the 22nd begins and is shown on the 17th in the model.

They cannot predict a hit of something specific that has not happened yet.
 Quoting: TS66

Correct me if I misunderstand, I'm still not 100% sure if we're on the same page. What I see is, the dense stream from this CH "spiralling" towards earth as the Sun rotates it towards us. The model, which begins 9-16 12:00, shows that the CH was already emitting a strong stream well before it came around to face earth directly.

So it's not that it shot out a burst on the 16th that took until the 22nd to arrive. It's that it's been gushing nonstop since at least the 16th, and was still gushing when it became earth facing, so on the 22nd we're gonna get wet.

:)
 Quoting: madajs


This would explain yesterdays Kp4 according to the US Commerce Dept.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels
with a period of active conditions observed between 19/2100 - 2400Z.
The period began with wind speeds, as measured at the ACE
spacecraft, steady at 400 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly south at about -10
nT. At about 19/2300Z, wind speed and temperature indicated slight
increases while IMF Bz began fluctuating between +8 to -6 nT. By
about 20/0100Z, the phi angle changed from a positive (away) to a
negative (toward) orientation. These changes were all indicative of
a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high
speed stream.
By the end of the period, wind velocities were steady
at about 575 km/s while IMF Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT.
 Quoting: TS66


I'm sure you remember this from the 16th....from the Spaceweather.com TimeMachine. If you scroll down to the coronal hole diagram on the left margin, you can see the position of 3 coronal holes spread apart by latitude and longitude. They don't always line up neatly with the Parker Spiral streams and the ambient SW, hence the "co-rotating interaction regions" (CIRS).

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

More on CIRS:

[link to www.physics.usyd.edu.au]

[link to ase.tufts.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



Thank you both, you are correct.

Madjas thanks for your patience with me ... and your explanation.

I'm loving that time machine, thanks Hugh, I didn't even knew it existed. Bookmarking it as I type.
shadasonic

User ID: 15732022
United States
09/20/2012 09:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...

:) Hey TS. I'm not sure I follow you. The stream that will hit us on the 22nd originates from the CH that is currently earth facing. Enlil offers us both a chart of the expected density as well as an animation showing the stream's approach to Earth.
 Quoting: madajs


But the animation of density, wind and tempt that will hit on the 22nd begins and is shown on the 17th in the model.

They cannot predict a hit of something specific that has not happened yet.
 Quoting: TS66

Correct me if I misunderstand, I'm still not 100% sure if we're on the same page. What I see is, the dense stream from this CH "spiralling" towards earth as the Sun rotates it towards us. The model, which begins 9-16 12:00, shows that the CH was already emitting a strong stream well before it came around to face earth directly.

So it's not that it shot out a burst on the 16th that took until the 22nd to arrive. It's that it's been gushing nonstop since at least the 16th, and was still gushing when it became earth facing, so on the 22nd we're gonna get wet.

:)
 Quoting: madajs


This would explain yesterdays Kp4 according to the US Commerce Dept.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels
with a period of active conditions observed between 19/2100 - 2400Z.
The period began with wind speeds, as measured at the ACE
spacecraft, steady at 400 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly south at about -10
nT. At about 19/2300Z, wind speed and temperature indicated slight
increases while IMF Bz began fluctuating between +8 to -6 nT. By
about 20/0100Z, the phi angle changed from a positive (away) to a
negative (toward) orientation. These changes were all indicative of
a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high
speed stream.
By the end of the period, wind velocities were steady
at about 575 km/s while IMF Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT.
 Quoting: TS66


I'm sure you remember this from the 16th....from the Spaceweather.com TimeMachine. If you scroll down to the coronal hole diagram on the left margin, you can see the position of 3 coronal holes spread apart by latitude and longitude. They don't always line up neatly with the Parker Spiral streams and the ambient SW, hence the "co-rotating interaction regions" (CIRS).

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

More on CIRS:

[link to www.physics.usyd.edu.au]

[link to ase.tufts.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



Thank you both, you are correct.

Madjas thanks for your patience with me ... and your explanation.

I'm loving that time machine, thanks Hugh, I didn't even knew it existed. Bookmarking it as I type.
 Quoting: TS66


Thanks from me also, as I hadn't kept up well enough and was confused also. I do remember Hugh posting about the 3 CHs,and should have went back and checked, my initial glance was the 22nd didn't make sense , now it does!

thanks for keeping my flighty mind in line!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shenue

User ID: 5263313
United States
09/20/2012 10:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night. Peace to all of you!
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
AkivaJeff

User ID: 19183578
United States
09/20/2012 10:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


But the animation of density, wind and tempt that will hit on the 22nd begins and is shown on the 17th in the model.

They cannot predict a hit of something specific that has not happened yet.
 Quoting: TS66

Correct me if I misunderstand, I'm still not 100% sure if we're on the same page. What I see is, the dense stream from this CH "spiralling" towards earth as the Sun rotates it towards us. The model, which begins 9-16 12:00, shows that the CH was already emitting a strong stream well before it came around to face earth directly.

So it's not that it shot out a burst on the 16th that took until the 22nd to arrive. It's that it's been gushing nonstop since at least the 16th, and was still gushing when it became earth facing, so on the 22nd we're gonna get wet.

:)
 Quoting: madajs


This would explain yesterdays Kp4 according to the US Commerce Dept.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels
with a period of active conditions observed between 19/2100 - 2400Z.
The period began with wind speeds, as measured at the ACE
spacecraft, steady at 400 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly south at about -10
nT. At about 19/2300Z, wind speed and temperature indicated slight
increases while IMF Bz began fluctuating between +8 to -6 nT. By
about 20/0100Z, the phi angle changed from a positive (away) to a
negative (toward) orientation. These changes were all indicative of
a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high
speed stream.
By the end of the period, wind velocities were steady
at about 575 km/s while IMF Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT.
 Quoting: TS66


I'm sure you remember this from the 16th....from the Spaceweather.com TimeMachine. If you scroll down to the coronal hole diagram on the left margin, you can see the position of 3 coronal holes spread apart by latitude and longitude. They don't always line up neatly with the Parker Spiral streams and the ambient SW, hence the "co-rotating interaction regions" (CIRS).

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

More on CIRS:

[link to www.physics.usyd.edu.au]

[link to ase.tufts.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



Thank you both, you are correct.

Madjas thanks for your patience with me ... and your explanation.

I'm loving that time machine, thanks Hugh, I didn't even knew it existed. Bookmarking it as I type.
 Quoting: TS66


Thanks from me also, as I hadn't kept up well enough and was confused also. I do remember Hugh posting about the 3 CHs,and should have went back and checked, my initial glance was the 22nd didn't make sense , now it does!

thanks for keeping my flighty mind in line!
 Quoting: shadasonic


Thanks for all of your input. I finally got it, as well. I was confused because of the reports of 3 seperate CMEs but none heading this way. There were no real reports of a steady (but powerful) stream that has been ongoing. It looks pretty potent on enlil.
Thanks again. rockon
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