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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
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09/28/2012 02:00 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if the model has been posted yet, but enlil is showing this new earthbound cme and it is BIG and FAST

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I'm a little worried on this one folks

Edit: once the geoeffective enlil model updates we will have more info
 Quoting: madajs


That Enlil shows that the entirety of the CME is extremely Dense and will arrive(I think) within 48-55 Hours from 'Lift Off' - is that about right for estimation People?

Just look at that thing [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] !?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
joinca

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09/28/2012 02:02 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if the model has been posted yet, but enlil is showing this new earthbound cme and it is BIG and FAST

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I'm a little worried on this one folks

Edit: once the geoeffective enlil model updates we will have more info
 Quoting: madajs


That Enlil shows that the entirety of the CME is extremely Dense and will arrive(I think) within 48-55 Hours from 'Lift Off' - is that about right for estimation People?

Just look at that thing [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] !?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


ahhhabombviolin
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
shadasonic

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09/28/2012 02:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if the model has been posted yet, but enlil is showing this new earthbound cme and it is BIG and FAST

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I'm a little worried on this one folks

Edit: once the geoeffective enlil model updates we will have more info
 Quoting: madajs


That Enlil shows that the entirety of the CME is extremely Dense and will arrive(I think) within 48-55 Hours from 'Lift Off' - is that about right for estimation People?

Just look at that thing [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] !?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


That may be the one Gabe was talking about, holy shit, that aint gonna take no 48 hours buddy. Is that real!

Its hard to say but thats got me real worried, its under a two day span depending on coronation of spike, shit!

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 09/28/2012 02:05 AM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
SnakeBite

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09/28/2012 02:05 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
PARDONmyFRENCHbutHOLYFUUCCCCCCCK!IjustBOUGHTaBRANDnewTRUCKtod​ayWTF!yoda
SnakeBite

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09/28/2012 02:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
PARDONmyFRENCHbutHOLYFUUCCCCCCCK!IjustBOUGHTaBRANDnewTRUCKt​odayWTF!yoda
 Quoting: SnakeBite


ISthisREAL?!?!?!
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
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09/28/2012 02:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if the model has been posted yet, but enlil is showing this new earthbound cme and it is BIG and FAST

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I'm a little worried on this one folks

Edit: once the geoeffective enlil model updates we will have more info
 Quoting: madajs


That Enlil shows that the entirety of the CME is extremely Dense and will arrive(I think) within 48-55 Hours from 'Lift Off' - is that about right for estimation People?

Just look at that thing [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] !?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


That may be the one Gabe was talking about, holy shit, that aint gonna take no 48 hours buddy. Is that real!

Its hard to say but thats got me real worried, its under a two day span depending on coronation of spike, shit!
 Quoting: shadasonic


I must admit,it took my Breath away from watching it also,that is Thick and Fast : ?

I'd like a 'Official' estimate on its' Velocity..before it bloody hits,preferably.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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09/28/2012 02:12 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
For anyone who missed it here's the Mauna Loa movie of the large filament eruption (not from 1575, but about 10 degrees east). The fact that this filament was straddling the equator means we're looking at a worst-case scenario as far as geo-effectiveness is concerned. This eruption was perfectly located to give us a strong geo-magnetic storm and some awesome aurora this weekend.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

HOLD THE PRESSES! NASA Goddard predicts this CME will arrive TODAY!This one is really fast!!

Event Issue Date: 2012-09-28 01:20:34.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-09-28 22:43:02.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 6 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.2 Re
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I must get some rest now, looks like another interesting day of solar excitement tomorrow. Good-night and blessings to all.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 09/28/2012 02:14 AM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
shadasonic

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09/28/2012 02:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
For anyone who missed it here's the Mauna Loa movie of the large filament eruption (not from 1575, but about 10 degrees east). The fact that this filament was straddling the equator means we're looking at a worst-case scenario as far as geo-effectiveness is concerned. This eruption was perfectly located to give us a strong geo-magnetic storm and some awesome aurora this weekend.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

HOLD THE PRESSES! NASA Goddard predicts this CME will arrive TODAY!This one is really fast!!

Event Issue Date: 2012-09-28 01:20:34.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-09-28 22:43:02.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 6 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.2 Re
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I must get some rest now, looks like another interesting day of solar excitement tomorrow. Good-night and blessings to all.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


This is no joke pardner, we got some particles coming in hot!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
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09/28/2012 02:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
For anyone who missed it here's the Mauna Loa movie of the large filament eruption (not from 1575, but about 10 degrees east). The fact that this filament was straddling the equator means we're looking at a worst-case scenario as far as geo-effectiveness is concerned. This eruption was perfectly located to give us a strong geo-magnetic storm and some awesome aurora this weekend.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

HOLD THE PRESSES! NASA Goddard predicts this CME will arrive TODAY!This one is really fast!!

Event Issue Date: 2012-09-28 01:20:34.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-09-28 22:43:02.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 6 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.2 Re
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I must get some rest now, looks like another interesting day of solar excitement tomorrow. Good-night and blessings to all.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Whoa!?

Thank you Hugh!

I was about to post this one [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] it runs a little slower and shows a direct hit at just over 2 Days - 2.75(I think).

Either way,its' on.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 09/28/2012 02:20 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
SnakeBite

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09/28/2012 02:21 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WhereIsENLIL
Hugh M Eye

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09/28/2012 02:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
One more thing....we have a pretty big proton event for a C3 flare.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 385
Issue Time: 2012 Sep 28 0147 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Sep 28 0200 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Sep 28 1400 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Proton Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Nice bump in the ACE Electrons & Protons, too:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 09/28/2012 02:25 AM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
SnakeBite

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09/28/2012 02:27 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
HuH?!
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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09/28/2012 02:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
One more thing....we have a pretty big proton event for a C3 flare.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 385
Issue Time: 2012 Sep 28 0147 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Sep 28 0200 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Sep 28 1400 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Proton Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


The 10MeV Protons on there had been showing a constant but very low rise for the preceeding 3-4 Days before this actual Proton Event,it is strange for such a small X-Ray event to produce such a relatively high Proton Count but then perhaps it could be due to the type of event that caused it.

On H alpha [link to halpha.nso.edu] Learmonth,the power can be seen very well.

Two noticable Tsunamis tear out through the Chromosphere.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 09/28/2012 02:30 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

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09/28/2012 02:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Check this out the begginning of the 28th!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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09/28/2012 02:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Awesome [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Are there any eclipses forecast anyone!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
<+MarketSellOff+>
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 1426914
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09/28/2012 02:33 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SC, is this what you were looking for?

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]



Can everyone see how that CME propagates itself onto a pre-existing magnetic field line and heads off in a MUCH wider arc? That one happened to not be earth directed. I think sometimes that very action is how we can account for "anomolous events" that we can't seem to document in the usual and customary ways.
 Quoting: Isis One


OH MY GOD!!! glp uncle
shadasonic

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09/28/2012 02:33 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
One more thing....we have a pretty big proton event for a C3 flare.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 385
Issue Time: 2012 Sep 28 0147 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Sep 28 0200 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Sep 28 1400 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Proton Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


The 10MeV Protons on there had been showing a constant but very low rise for the preceeding 3-4 Days before this actual Proton Event,it is strange for such a small X-Ray event to produce such a relatively high Proton Count but then perhaps it could be due to the type of event that caused it.

On H alpha [link to halpha.nso.edu] Learmonth,the power can be seen very well.

Two noticable Tsunamis tear out through the Chromosphere.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


What a strange energy burst!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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09/28/2012 02:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Check this out the begginning of the 28th!
 Quoting: shadasonic


Sizzling Filament.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

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09/28/2012 02:35 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Awesome [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Are there any eclipses forecast anyone!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Just nips three days of darkness, starting tomorrow, that is weird!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 02:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
At last. I have been wishing for weeks.
Spittin'Cesium

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09/28/2012 02:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Quickly Look [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] The Western Limb - Whats' Eclipsing!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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09/28/2012 02:39 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Also [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Looks awesome!
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
SnakeBite

User ID: 20003075
Canada
09/28/2012 02:40 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
LooksAMAZINGbutWHATisIT?!?!?!
Spittin'Cesium

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United Kingdom
09/28/2012 02:41 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Amazing [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] - Looks like that Solar Film : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
SnakeBite

User ID: 20003075
Canada
09/28/2012 02:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
Spittin'Cesium

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09/28/2012 02:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
LooksAMAZINGbutWHATisIT?!?!?!
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Fuck knows - Doomilicious would be my first guess.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

User ID: 15732022
United States
09/28/2012 02:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Alright what is going on, psyop or real, this is crazy shit! Massive filament, unheard of eclipse!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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09/28/2012 02:43 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: SnakeBite


So it just a normal Eclipse then : )

Thank you SnakeBite.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
SnakeBite

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09/28/2012 02:43 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ImGettingMYbagSquaredAWAYjustINCASE
Spittin'Cesium

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09/28/2012 02:44 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wow - we are a bunch of jumpy MoFos',huh!?

: )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1

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