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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
AkivaJeff

User ID: 19183578
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09/28/2012 11:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm surprised and disappointed that CACTus and SEEDS have no updated CME analysis available after all this time. However SIDC forecasts CME arrival for the 29th. So we have 3 vastly different predictions for the same CME just like last time. Here's what SIDC has to say:

COMMENT: A C3.7 flare occurred in the vicinity of NOAA AR 1577 on Sept.
27, 2336 UT (peak time). It triggered both a weak proton event (>10 Mev
protons) whose level is near the threshold of 10 pfu at the moment, and
a fully developed halo CME as observed with LASCO C2 data. The expansion
speed estimated from this instrument ranges from about 700 to 1000 km/s.

At the moment, only partial observations of the CME are available from
the COR2 instruments onboard STEREO, allowing only a crude speed
estimate of about 1300 km/s
. On-disk signatures of a coronal EUV waves
extending to the East of the region, nearly up to the central meridian,
together with the halo nature of the CME, suggest this event will be
geoeffective with a risk for minor storm conditions or greater by midday
on Sept. 29.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

I believe the first NASA prediction was way off, hence their updated prediction. I can't fathom why they leave the old predictions up on the iSWA CME alerts page.

The CME can be seen in all its glory at the SOHO movie-maker page. Check the last 24 images for C3 and 34 images for the C2 imager.

[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


The sun is approximately 93 million miles away , so ....

At 1000km/sec is 2,236,936 mph = 40 hrs which will mean the CME will arrive at 16:00 UTC on the 30th (12 pm EST)

At 700km/sec is 1,565,855 mph = 60hrs which will mean the CME will arrive at 12:00 UTC Oct 1st (8 am EST)

And anywhere there between.

Other than the fact we had an X and many many M flares this time last year, seems we have the same anticipatory excitement with these two, don't you think Hugh ?

I'm really starting to believe that we seem to hit the sun's "sweet spot" at this time of year.
 Quoting: TS66


The 1859 Carrington took 17 hours to hit us.
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WE finally have the CACTus details--median velocity is logged at 811 km/s; nowhere near as fast as first reported, but a Type IV Halo nonetheless (a full 360 degrees!). From the NASA CME cygnet it seems Earth will see some of the greatest density. No chance of a "glancing blow" this time, LOL.

CACTus CME details:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

CACTus Diagnostics CME list:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


great stuff, but I still wonder why we can almost not see any CME on the SDO. The flare looks fairly small...
Hugh M Eye

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09/28/2012 12:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
More NASA cone models:

Dynamic Pressure (looks bad near Earth):

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Density:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Velocity:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

NASA has again changed their prediction for arrival time (this the 3rd so far). Of course they keep all 3 three posted on the alert cygnet so they'll be right no matter when it hits, haha.

Event Issue Date: 2012-09-28 10:28:53.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-09-29 22:47:45.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re


[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sooooooooo... We need a PIN modes!!!


right guys????



PIN IT PIN IT NOW


and take out the moust of the bull shit pins there.....



cause this has priority absolute



bump
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 22914370
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09/28/2012 12:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WE finally have the CACTus details--median velocity is logged at 811 km/s; nowhere near as fast as first reported, but a Type IV Halo nonetheless (a full 360 degrees!). From the NASA CME cygnet it seems Earth will see some of the greatest density. No chance of a "glancing blow" this time, LOL.

CACTus CME details:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

CACTus Diagnostics CME list:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


great stuff, but I still wonder why we can almost not see any CME on the SDO. The flare looks fairly small...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24571935


Here's a "difference" movie from SDO which makes the CME more visible. Also, keep in mind that the size of the X-ray flare (C 3.7) has nothing to do with the size of a CME or its geo-effectiveness.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

And the b&w AIA304 movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

By the way, does anybody know if there's a "Solar Doom" conference or something this week? Spaceweather.com is woefully behind the curve (even more than usual) and Solarsoft is barely functioning (their flare list is days behind, which is very unusual).
Hugh M Eye

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09/28/2012 12:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sooooooooo... We need a PIN modes!!!


right guys????



PIN IT PIN IT NOW


and take out the moust of the bull shit pins there.....



cause this has priority absolute



bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989


NOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24568989
Portugal
09/28/2012 12:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sooooooooo... We need a PIN modes!!!


right guys????



PIN IT PIN IT NOW


and take out the moust of the bull shit pins there.....



cause this has priority absolute



bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989


NOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


why? Panic?
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WE finally have the CACTus details--median velocity is logged at 811 km/s; nowhere near as fast as first reported, but a Type IV Halo nonetheless (a full 360 degrees!). From the NASA CME cygnet it seems Earth will see some of the greatest density. No chance of a "glancing blow" this time, LOL.

CACTus CME details:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

CACTus Diagnostics CME list:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


great stuff, but I still wonder why we can almost not see any CME on the SDO. The flare looks fairly small...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24571935


Here's a "difference" movie from SDO which makes the CME more visible. Also, keep in mind that the size of the X-ray flare (C 3.7) has nothing to do with the size of a CME or its geo-effectiveness.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

And the b&w AIA304 movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

By the way, does anybody know if there's a "Solar Doom" conference or something this week? Spaceweather.com is woefully behind the curve (even more than usual) and Solarsoft is barely functioning (their flare list is days behind, which is very unusual).
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hugh - can you explain what is meant by type 1V full halo CME. By your experience do u think this is a big one?
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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09/28/2012 12:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Because every nut out there will be in here trolling and shilling the thread!!! This isn't solar doom and we don't need them cluttering things up to make it more difficult to share info
Just because I am paranoid doesn't mean I am wrong.

Isaiah 5:20 (KJV)
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
More NASA cone models:

Dynamic Pressure (looks bad near Earth):

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Density:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Velocity:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

NASA has again changed their prediction for arrival time (this the 3rd so far). Of course they keep all 3 three posted on the alert cygnet so they'll be right no matter when it hits, haha.

Event Issue Date: 2012-09-28 10:28:53.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-09-29 22:47:45.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re


[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


If that's the case, even with the 6 =/- hr confidence, they believe it's going faster than 1000km/sec ??? Yes ???
mistersplinter

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09/28/2012 12:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sooooooooo... We need a PIN modes!!!


right guys????



PIN IT PIN IT NOW


and take out the moust of the bull shit pins there.....



cause this has priority absolute



bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989


NOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


why? Panic?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989



I agree...bump for you active list all you like, please NO pins...

Greets everyone...had a Dr's appt so I have been phone-lurking.

The Sol team is all over this one as usual!!!

rockon
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein

"The Upholder of the Cycles which supports the whole of Life, is water. In every drop of water dwells the Godhead, whom we all serve; there also dwells Life, the Soul of the "First" substance - Water - whose boundaries and banks are the capillaries that guide it and in which it circulates" -- Viktor Schauberger
Anonymous Coward
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United States
09/28/2012 12:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sooooooooo... We need a PIN modes!!!


right guys????



PIN IT PIN IT NOW


and take out the moust of the bull shit pins there.....



cause this has priority absolute



bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989


NOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


why? Panic?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989


naughty

Angry trolls and shills will arrive enmasse.
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Because every nut out there will be in here trolling and shilling the thread!!! This isn't solar doom and we don't need them cluttering things up to make it more difficult to share info
 Quoting: whiteangel


its not doommm


its fuck**** real right?


its dimensionaly big



no one can predict the results yes?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24568989
Portugal
09/28/2012 12:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sooooooooo... We need a PIN modes!!!


right guys????



PIN IT PIN IT NOW


and take out the moust of the bull shit pins there.....



cause this has priority absolute



bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989


NOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


why? Panic?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989


naughty

Angry trolls and shills will arrive enmasse.
 Quoting: TS66


ok. lets be quiet than... they gonna find it soon any way...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24266114
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09/28/2012 12:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Because every nut out there will be in here trolling and shilling the thread!!! This isn't solar doom and we don't need them cluttering things up to make it more difficult to share info
 Quoting: whiteangel


its not doommm


its fuck**** real right?


its dimensionaly big



no one can predict the results yes?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989


We won't know the true potential until almost 20 minutes before it hits Earth when the satellites are hit and send us their data, and only then if NASA doesn't shut them down in order to protect them (they've done it in the past).
Tiny Trink

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09/28/2012 12:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~

Did any of you get a screen shot of the radar last night when the big CME let loose?

The radar has been changed it appears.

This is the current radar.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thank you.

Tiny Trink
Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
whiteangel

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09/28/2012 12:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Because every nut out there will be in here trolling and shilling the thread!!! This isn't solar doom and we don't need them cluttering things up to make it more difficult to share info
 Quoting: whiteangel


its not doommm


its fuck**** real right?


its dimensionaly big



no one can predict the results yes?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989


If I have this right, think of it like this:
Our magnetosphere is a brick wall. The CME is a Mack truck. At 10 miles an hour, the truck hits the brick wall and little damage is done, maybe a little paint transfer. At 100 mph the brick wall becomes dust to just blow in the wind. This incoming CME is a pickup truck coming in at about 60 mph. If I have this wrong, please advise

Pretty lights, maybe a power outage or two that will never be linked to a solar storm, a few quakes.

For me, that this will happen during a full moon, how much bigger will the quakes be?
Just because I am paranoid doesn't mean I am wrong.

Isaiah 5:20 (KJV)
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
SnakeBite

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Canada
09/28/2012 12:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sooooooooo... We need a PIN modes!!!


right guys????



PIN IT PIN IT NOW


and take out the moust of the bull shit pins there.....



cause this has priority absolute



bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989


NOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


iFIRMLYagreeWITHhugh!
SnakeBite

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09/28/2012 12:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
OKiAMconfused,DOweHAVEanEARTHboundCMEorNOTbecauseALLtheMODELS​aredIFFERENTnow,ANDiJUSTgotSETupTOwatchTHEauroras!
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Because every nut out there will be in here trolling and shilling the thread!!! This isn't solar doom and we don't need them cluttering things up to make it more difficult to share info
 Quoting: whiteangel


its not doommm


its fuck**** real right?


its dimensionaly big



no one can predict the results yes?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989


We won't know the true potential until almost 20 minutes before it hits Earth when the satellites are hit and send us their data, and only then if NASA doesn't shut them down in order to protect them (they've done it in the past).
 Quoting: TS66


ty TS....
shenue

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09/28/2012 12:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~

Did any of you get a screen shot of the radar last night when the big CME let loose?

The radar has been changed it appears.

This is the current radar.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thank you.

Tiny Trink
 Quoting: Tiny Trink


Hmmm what the heck? Up until about 1/2 hr ago, it showed the big CME heading our way. Ok why has it changed? What don't I understand here?

Thanks

Edit: As a matter of fact, I still have another window open that is still running the one showing the CME heading for us. Now I'm quite confused. There is something that I'm just not understanding. What is it?

Last Edited by shenue on 09/28/2012 12:50 PM
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~

Did any of you get a screen shot of the radar last night when the big CME let loose?

The radar has been changed it appears.

This is the current radar.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thank you.

Tiny Trink
 Quoting: Tiny Trink


WTH ???

Nice catch Trink ....
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Because every nut out there will be in here trolling and shilling the thread!!! This isn't solar doom and we don't need them cluttering things up to make it more difficult to share info
 Quoting: whiteangel


its not doommm


its fuck**** real right?


its dimensionaly big



no one can predict the results yes?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989


If I have this right, think of it like this:
Our magnetosphere is a brick wall. The CME is a Mack truck. At 10 miles an hour, the truck hits the brick wall and little damage is done, maybe a little paint transfer. At 100 mph the brick wall becomes dust to just blow in the wind. This incoming CME is a pickup truck coming in at about 60 mph. If I have this wrong, please advise

Pretty lights, maybe a power outage or two that will never be linked to a solar storm, a few quakes.

For me, that this will happen during a full moon, how much bigger will the quakes be?
 Quoting: whiteangel


ty white Angel


welll if the dimensions of the earthquakes are like the hallo dimension...


we have hiper-ship upon us yhee?
SnakeBite

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09/28/2012 12:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~

Did any of you get a screen shot of the radar last night when the big CME let loose?

The radar has been changed it appears.

This is the current radar.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thank you.

Tiny Trink
 Quoting: Tiny Trink


WTH ???

Nice catch Trink ....
 Quoting: TS66

MaybeTHATStheMODELforTHEsecondCME?
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
09/28/2012 12:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~

Did any of you get a screen shot of the radar last night when the big CME let loose?

The radar has been changed it appears.

This is the current radar.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thank you.

Tiny Trink
 Quoting: Tiny Trink


WTH ???

Nice catch Trink ....
 Quoting: TS66


I still have an old screen showing which hasn't changed. I will screen shot it and put it up, I am just slow at this.
Just because I am paranoid doesn't mean I am wrong.

Isaiah 5:20 (KJV)
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
SnakeBite

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09/28/2012 12:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
MORNINGsolarCREW!!HOPEyouALLhaveAwonderfulDAY!
RI McGuillicutty

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09/28/2012 12:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Posted 3 min ago by Solarham on FB..

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]
"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow."
Tiny Trink

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09/28/2012 12:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~ hi

I am trying to keep Shada's thread alive however I am not as versed as all of you. Now that the CME has been removed can you come over and help on his thread?

I am trying to move things that Hugh is posting over there.

Thread: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY

Much Love,

Tiny Trink
Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~

Did any of you get a screen shot of the radar last night when the big CME let loose?

The radar has been changed it appears.

This is the current radar.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thank you.

Tiny Trink
 Quoting: Tiny Trink


WTH ???

Nice catch Trink ....
 Quoting: TS66

MaybeTHATStheMODELforTHEsecondCME?
 Quoting: SnakeBite


They should BOTH be on there, it's the same time frame .... they best be having issues with the program, because that it is blatant mis-info !!!!

Hear that NASA redface???!!!
mistersplinter

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09/28/2012 12:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein

"The Upholder of the Cycles which supports the whole of Life, is water. In every drop of water dwells the Godhead, whom we all serve; there also dwells Life, the Soul of the "First" substance - Water - whose boundaries and banks are the capillaries that guide it and in which it circulates" -- Viktor Schauberger

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