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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
RI McGuillicutty

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09/28/2012 12:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Posted 3 min ago by Solarham on FB..

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]
"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow."
Tiny Trink

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09/28/2012 12:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~ hi

I am trying to keep Shada's thread alive however I am not as versed as all of you. Now that the CME has been removed can you come over and help on his thread?

I am trying to move things that Hugh is posting over there.

Thread: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY

Much Love,

Tiny Trink
Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~

Did any of you get a screen shot of the radar last night when the big CME let loose?

The radar has been changed it appears.

This is the current radar.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thank you.

Tiny Trink
 Quoting: Tiny Trink


WTH ???

Nice catch Trink ....
 Quoting: TS66

MaybeTHATStheMODELforTHEsecondCME?
 Quoting: SnakeBite


They should BOTH be on there, it's the same time frame .... they best be having issues with the program, because that it is blatant mis-info !!!!

Hear that NASA redface???!!!
mistersplinter

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09/28/2012 12:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein

"The Upholder of the Cycles which supports the whole of Life, is water. In every drop of water dwells the Godhead, whom we all serve; there also dwells Life, the Soul of the "First" substance - Water - whose boundaries and banks are the capillaries that guide it and in which it circulates" -- Viktor Schauberger
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter



Splinter ... you are the man !!! hf
SnakeBite

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09/28/2012 12:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
HUGHgetONyourSTATIONSandHELPmeUNDERSTANDwhatISgoingONhereWITH​theNOWmissingCME,ANDstillNOTHIIINGatALLfromENLILuuuuugh
mistersplinter

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09/28/2012 12:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter



Splinter ... you are the man !!! hf
 Quoting: TS66


I's just a screencappin' fool

rockon
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein

"The Upholder of the Cycles which supports the whole of Life, is water. In every drop of water dwells the Godhead, whom we all serve; there also dwells Life, the Soul of the "First" substance - Water - whose boundaries and banks are the capillaries that guide it and in which it circulates" -- Viktor Schauberger
NiNzrez
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09/28/2012 12:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
More NASA cone models:

Dynamic Pressure (looks bad near Earth):

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Density:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Velocity:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

NASA has again changed their prediction for arrival time (this the 3rd so far). Of course they keep all 3 three posted on the alert cygnet so they'll be right no matter when it hits, haha.

Event Issue Date: 2012-09-28 10:28:53.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-09-29 22:47:45.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re


[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


after going over data this morning, i would have to say i agree more with this arrival time than any other. sometime mid to lat day UTC time on Sept 29th
whiteangel

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09/28/2012 12:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to s1240.photobucket.com]

[link to s1240.photobucket.com]
WAXmas1
Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.
Luke 2:14
madajs

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09/28/2012 12:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~

Did any of you get a screen shot of the radar last night when the big CME let loose?

The radar has been changed it appears.

This is the current radar.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thank you.

Tiny Trink
 Quoting: Tiny Trink


WTH ???

Nice catch Trink ....
 Quoting: TS66

MaybeTHATStheMODELforTHEsecondCME?
 Quoting: SnakeBite


They should BOTH be on there, it's the same time frame .... they best be having issues with the program, because that it is blatant mis-info !!!!

Hear that NASA redface???!!!
 Quoting: TS66

Haha, this is the way that model has always worked in my experience. That model updates whenever there is a new CME, it doesn't care if the previous one was a gigantic full halo CME and the new one is a runt, out with the old and in with the new.

I saved the simulation hours ago because I knew this would happen. Still waiting on the geoeffective model to update...
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


You guys are awesome !!!
Tiny Trink

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09/28/2012 12:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter


Splinter you are awesome!!!

Thank you Thank you Thank You!!

hugs
Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
MamaHasAwakened

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09/28/2012 12:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter



Splinter ... you are the man !!! hf
 Quoting: TS66


I's just a screencappin' fool

rockon
 Quoting: mistersplinter


We like those!!

applause2
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Posted 3 min ago by Solarham on FB..

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]
 Quoting: RI McGuillicutty


its not online....
madajs

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09/28/2012 01:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
nvm this post had some base errors in it

Last Edited by madajs on 09/28/2012 01:03 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 01:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
More NASA cone models:

Dynamic Pressure (looks bad near Earth):

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Density:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Velocity:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

NASA has again changed their prediction for arrival time (this the 3rd so far). Of course they keep all 3 three posted on the alert cygnet so they'll be right no matter when it hits, haha.

Event Issue Date: 2012-09-28 10:28:53.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-09-29 22:47:45.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re


[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

I'm not convinced that all of these are meant to be updates on the original CME. The original post shows the CME erupting at 0120 UTC, the one you are displaying shows a CME erupting at 1028 UTC. Even NASA doesn't get 9 hours worth of confused about when a CME began.

I think some, if not all, of these posts are separate CME's.
 Quoting: madajs


I agree, these CMEs are getting confused, however iSwa has also shown multiple eruptions simultaneously without issue or omitting one or the other.
whiteangel

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09/28/2012 01:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter


And sure a lot faster than I am at it, lol!! (((hugs)))
WAXmas1
Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.
Luke 2:14
Tiny Trink

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09/28/2012 01:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter


And sure a lot faster than I am at it, lol!! (((hugs)))
 Quoting: whiteangel


Angel you are awesome too!!

hugs
Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
madajs

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09/28/2012 01:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I agree, these CMEs are getting confused, however iSwa has also shown multiple eruptions simultaneously without issue or omitting one or the other.
 Quoting: TS66

I edited out that post, I don't feel I understand that cygnet well enough to speak on it :)
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 01:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter


Umm, is it just me or does that look really bad? I've benn following this thread for awhile now and don't remember seeing a hit quite that big or direct.. Hope I'm wrong!
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 01:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I agree, these CMEs are getting confused, however iSwa has also shown multiple eruptions simultaneously without issue or omitting one or the other.
 Quoting: TS66

I edited out that post, I don't feel I understand that cygnet well enough to speak on it :)
 Quoting: madajs


Well there are 2 separate CMEs on the way, we are focusing on only one, data gets confused, however, Hugh's posting is correct for the "big one" wink
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 01:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
For those of you that may underestimate this resulting CME from a "Mere C class eruption"

This one rivals an X5 flare eruption and CME from March wink

madajs

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09/28/2012 01:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here's the entire original simulation that got overrode by the new CME

[link to postimage.org]
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 01:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Stereos will not be afected



ma gut feeling tells me


that on full moon night


that barrier will really rock.... all crust


just saiyn


its big

its powerfull



and with strong dinamics pushinnnnnnn.... in to Earth
Luisport

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09/28/2012 01:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I agree, these CMEs are getting confused, however iSwa has also shown multiple eruptions simultaneously without issue or omitting one or the other.
 Quoting: TS66

I edited out that post, I don't feel I understand that cygnet well enough to speak on it :)
 Quoting: madajs


Well there are 2 separate CMEs on the way, we are focusing on only one, data gets confused, however, Hugh's posting is correct for the "big one" wink
 Quoting: TS66


Since the big one is traveling faster, the second one can reach one sooner because the first one clean the way first right?
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 01:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I agree, these CMEs are getting confused, however iSwa has also shown multiple eruptions simultaneously without issue or omitting one or the other.
 Quoting: TS66

I edited out that post, I don't feel I understand that cygnet well enough to speak on it :)
 Quoting: madajs


Well there are 2 separate CMEs on the way, we are focusing on only one, data gets confused, however, Hugh's posting is correct for the "big one" wink
 Quoting: TS66


Since the big one is traveling faster, the second one can reach one sooner because the first one clean the way first right?
 Quoting: Luisport


Our magnetosphere may be weakened from the first blast, but nothing is etched in stone.
NiNzrez (OP)

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09/28/2012 01:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I agree, these CMEs are getting confused, however iSwa has also shown multiple eruptions simultaneously without issue or omitting one or the other.
 Quoting: TS66

I edited out that post, I don't feel I understand that cygnet well enough to speak on it :)
 Quoting: madajs


Well there are 2 separate CMEs on the way, we are focusing on only one, data gets confused, however, Hugh's posting is correct for the "big one" wink
 Quoting: TS66


Since the big one is traveling faster, the second one can reach one sooner because the first one clean the way first right?
 Quoting: Luisport


pretty much :)
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
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mistersplinter

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09/28/2012 01:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter


Umm, is it just me or does that look really bad? I've benn following this thread for awhile now and don't remember seeing a hit quite that big or direct.. Hope I'm wrong!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5240732


One of the coolest things shown on that capture is how well this thing seems to sweep up everything...note the large purple area(close to zero readings) behind the CME.

This is definitely one of the most dense CMEs that I have seen coming at us.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein

"The Upholder of the Cycles which supports the whole of Life, is water. In every drop of water dwells the Godhead, whom we all serve; there also dwells Life, the Soul of the "First" substance - Water - whose boundaries and banks are the capillaries that guide it and in which it circulates" -- Viktor Schauberger
Tiny Trink

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09/28/2012 01:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I just want to give a big THANK YOU to all my Sol brothers and Sisters for providing the info I requested.

You ALL are dear hearts, what a blessed thread this is!!

grouphug

Much Love,

Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink
Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
mistersplinter

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09/28/2012 01:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
For those of you that may underestimate this resulting CME from a "Mere C class eruption"

This one rivals an X5 flare eruption and CME from March wink


 Quoting: TS66


great comparison!!

You can see that the density forecast on this one is much greater than the X.

nice post 66, thanks

thumbs

EDIT:

'this one' means current cme lol

Last Edited by mistersplinter on 09/28/2012 01:23 PM
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein

"The Upholder of the Cycles which supports the whole of Life, is water. In every drop of water dwells the Godhead, whom we all serve; there also dwells Life, the Soul of the "First" substance - Water - whose boundaries and banks are the capillaries that guide it and in which it circulates" -- Viktor Schauberger

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