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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
TBar1984

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09/29/2012 02:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
T-BAR usually has correct info but in this case he's wrong, wrong, WRONG. STEREO A had a looong data gap last night (ditto for STEREO B) and missed the CME that occurred at 23:36utc. The far-side CME happened way earlier around 10 or 11 utc on the 27th. I think he's been reading Spaceweather.com too much, we usually beat them to the info here at SOLAR WATCH.

Also, I posted all of the pertinent data and movies I could find first thing this morning (pages 1588-89). Anyone taking the time to read up before posting wouldn't be so confused. I'll repost the SIDC comment from this morning ---

COMMENT: A C3.7 flare occurred in the vicinity of NOAA AR 1577 on Sept.
27, 2336 UT (peak time). It triggered both a weak proton event (>10 Mev
protons) whose level is near the threshold of 10 pfu at the moment, and
a fully developed halo CME as observed with LASCO C2 data.
The expansion
speed estimated from this instrument ranges from about 700 to 1000 km/s.
At the moment, only partial observations of the CME are available from
the COR2 instruments onboard STEREO
, allowing only a crude speed
estimate of about 1300 km/s. On-disk signatures of a coronal EUV waves
extending to the East of the region, nearly up to the central meridian,
together with the halo nature of the CME, suggest this event will be
geoeffective with a risk for minor storm conditions or greater by midday
on Sept. 29.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

Why the confusion? The proton event coincided with the earth-facing CME as we noted late last night. The other backside blast was 13 hours before. Shheesh.

CME Density cone model:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Actually I was RIGHT, Right, right. The BIG CME was on the Backside. There was a small one on the Front Side with most of the action going NORTH. Yes, I saw those Stereo B images, it showed most of it going up, didn't it? [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] You see very little going out toward the 3 o'clock, right? Due to the position of the Spot, most went Wide Right & High. Here is a Forecast I can agree with, a spike to around 500 km/s on the 30th [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] And a G2 level Storm [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 97
Issue Time: 2012 Sep 28 2027 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 29: None (Below G1) Sep 30: G2 (Moderate) Oct 01: G2 (Moderate)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT"

Isn't that what I said? A Small Earthbound CME, just like the Millions we have never even noticed. Sorry, No Big One this time.
 Quoting: TBar1984


I'm sorry, but the one on the Earthside appeared bigger. And how might you explain away the proton event and the 13 hour time difference. I'm not predicting any doom here, just a good chance of Aurora and possible satellite issues. I'd say this could be among the top 5 or 6 magnetic storms in the past 12 months....or maybe not. Our predictions don't always pan out, but I needn't remind you how often NOAA and NASA are way off on theirs.

STEREO Ahead HI1 image (maybe a bit north but these things are very expansive and Earth is such a tiny little thing):
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

GOES Protons still on the high side:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
:earthboundCME:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

The Earth side one didn't look very threatening to me. Especially with the position of the Spot. Like I said, you would expect most of it to go right, and as an added bonus, it also went up. The Sate-Enviro chart didn't move much, did it [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] I think it will be a dud. Yes, I called that earlier IswaSystemWebApp Model Bogus, didn't I. It was bogus, I think they have it right now. It happens. I can agree with a G2 at 500 km/s on the 30th.
Hugh M Eye

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09/29/2012 02:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
T-BAR usually has correct info but in this case he's wrong, wrong, WRONG. STEREO A had a looong data gap last night (ditto for STEREO B) and missed the CME that occurred at 23:36utc. The far-side CME happened way earlier around 10 or 11 utc on the 27th. I think he's been reading Spaceweather.com too much, we usually beat them to the info here at SOLAR WATCH.

Also, I posted all of the pertinent data and movies I could find first thing this morning (pages 1588-89). Anyone taking the time to read up before posting wouldn't be so confused. I'll repost the SIDC comment from this morning ---

COMMENT: A C3.7 flare occurred in the vicinity of NOAA AR 1577 on Sept.
27, 2336 UT (peak time). It triggered both a weak proton event (>10 Mev
protons) whose level is near the threshold of 10 pfu at the moment, and
a fully developed halo CME as observed with LASCO C2 data.
The expansion
speed estimated from this instrument ranges from about 700 to 1000 km/s.
At the moment, only partial observations of the CME are available from
the COR2 instruments onboard STEREO
, allowing only a crude speed
estimate of about 1300 km/s. On-disk signatures of a coronal EUV waves
extending to the East of the region, nearly up to the central meridian,
together with the halo nature of the CME, suggest this event will be
geoeffective with a risk for minor storm conditions or greater by midday
on Sept. 29.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

Why the confusion? The proton event coincided with the earth-facing CME as we noted late last night. The other backside blast was 13 hours before. Shheesh.

CME Density cone model:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Actually I was RIGHT, Right, right. The BIG CME was on the Backside. There was a small one on the Front Side with most of the action going NORTH. Yes, I saw those Stereo B images, it showed most of it going up, didn't it? [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] You see very little going out toward the 3 o'clock, right? Due to the position of the Spot, most went Wide Right & High. Here is a Forecast I can agree with, a spike to around 500 km/s on the 30th [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] And a G2 level Storm [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 97
Issue Time: 2012 Sep 28 2027 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 29: None (Below G1) Sep 30: G2 (Moderate) Oct 01: G2 (Moderate)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT"

Isn't that what I said? A Small Earthbound CME, just like the Millions we have never even noticed. Sorry, No Big One this time.
 Quoting: TBar1984


I'm sorry, but the one on the Earthside appeared bigger. And how might you explain away the proton event and the 13 hour time difference. I'm not predicting any doom here, just a good chance of Aurora and possible satellite issues. I'd say this could be among the top 5 or 6 magnetic storms in the past 12 months....or maybe not. Our predictions don't always pan out, but I needn't remind you how often NOAA and NASA are way off on theirs.

STEREO Ahead HI1 image (maybe a bit north but these things are very expansive and Earth is such a tiny little thing):
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

GOES Protons still on the high side:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
:earthboundCME:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

The Earth side one didn't look very threatening to me. Especially with the position of the Spot. Like I said, you would expect most of it to go right, and as an added bonus, it also went up. The Sate-Enviro chart didn't move much, did it [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] I think it will be a dud. Yes, I called that earlier IswaSystemWebApp Model Bogus, didn't I. It was bogus, I think they have it right now. It happens. I can agree with a G2 at 500 km/s on the 30th.
 Quoting: TBar1984


I haven't made any predictions except that it's a significant CME. For those that weren't here in October 2011, we had a similar filament eruption which was even less Earth-directed and it resulted in G3 storm when NOAA predicted a "glancing blow" and 5% mid-lat. chance of storm. Well the skies lit up red in Arkansas and Spaceweather.com milked it for days...a Planetary K-index of 7 and magnetosphere compression within the geosynchronus orbit. It is very possible we could see a similar storm depending on the polarity and other unknown factors. Can't you just enjoy the ride, T-Bar?

NOAA prediction-for 10/24/11
Updated at: 2011 Oct 23 2200 UTC

Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
05 %
30 %
MINOR
01 %
05 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %

High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
10 %
40 %
MINOR
05 %
10 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %

Actual A, K, & Planetary readings for 10/24-25/11
2011 10 24 16 2 0 1 1 1 1 4 6 9 0 0 1 2 0 0 3 5 23 2 1 2 1 0 1 5 7
2011 10 25 27 4 5 6 4 3 2 2 2 26 5 4 6 4 3 2 1 1 26 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 2

Look at the wimpy little CME that caused such a strong event:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 09/29/2012 02:49 AM
SnakeBite

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09/29/2012 02:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
IwantTOthankYOUbothFORallTHEinfoYOUprovide!IMjustEXCITEDatTHE​prospectOFseeingAURORASasIamINaPERFECTspotTOseeTHEM:D
TBar1984

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09/29/2012 03:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...

Actually I was RIGHT, Right, right. The BIG CME was on the Backside. There was a small one on the Front Side with most of the action going NORTH. Yes, I saw those Stereo B images, it showed most of it going up, didn't it? [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] You see very little going out toward the 3 o'clock, right? Due to the position of the Spot, most went Wide Right & High. Here is a Forecast I can agree with, a spike to around 500 km/s on the 30th [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] And a G2 level Storm [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 97
Issue Time: 2012 Sep 28 2027 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 29: None (Below G1) Sep 30: G2 (Moderate) Oct 01: G2 (Moderate)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT"

Isn't that what I said? A Small Earthbound CME, just like the Millions we have never even noticed. Sorry, No Big One this time.
 Quoting: TBar1984


I'm sorry, but the one on the Earthside appeared bigger. And how might you explain away the proton event and the 13 hour time difference. I'm not predicting any doom here, just a good chance of Aurora and possible satellite issues. I'd say this could be among the top 5 or 6 magnetic storms in the past 12 months....or maybe not. Our predictions don't always pan out, but I needn't remind you how often NOAA and NASA are way off on theirs.

STEREO Ahead HI1 image (maybe a bit north but these things are very expansive and Earth is such a tiny little thing):
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

GOES Protons still on the high side:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
:earthboundCME:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

The Earth side one didn't look very threatening to me. Especially with the position of the Spot. Like I said, you would expect most of it to go right, and as an added bonus, it also went up. The Sate-Enviro chart didn't move much, did it [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] I think it will be a dud. Yes, I called that earlier IswaSystemWebApp Model Bogus, didn't I. It was bogus, I think they have it right now. It happens. I can agree with a G2 at 500 km/s on the 30th.
 Quoting: TBar1984


I haven't made any predictions except that it's a significant CME. For those that weren't here in October 2011, we had a similar filament eruption which was even less Earth-directed and it resulted in G3 storm when NOAA predicted a "glancing blow" and 5% mid-lat. chance of storm. Well the skies lit up red in Arkansas and Spaceweather.com milked it for days...a Planetary K-index of 7 and magnetosphere compression within the geosynchronus orbit. It is very possible we could see a similar storm depending on the polarity and other unknown factors. Can't you just enjoy the ride, T-Bar?

NOAA prediction-for 10/24/11
Updated at: 2011 Oct 23 2200 UTC

Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
05 %
30 %
MINOR
01 %
05 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %

High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
10 %
40 %
MINOR
05 %
10 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %

Actual A, K, & Planetary readings for 10/24-25/11
2011 10 24 16 2 0 1 1 1 1 4 6 9 0 0 1 2 0 0 3 5 23 2 1 2 1 0 1 5 7
2011 10 25 27 4 5 6 4 3 2 2 2 26 5 4 6 4 3 2 1 1 26 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 2

Look at the wimpy little CME that caused such a strong event:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Here's the chart for Oct [link to satdat.ngdc.noaa.gov] They haven't caught up here yet [link to satdat.ngdc.noaa.gov] So, you have to use this one [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] It doesn't look as bad to me. The 30th isn't that far away.
whiteangel

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09/29/2012 03:05 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.ips.gov.au]

Hot again, 4 separate areas
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
whiteangel

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09/29/2012 03:21 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
night good folks. drunk and lonely, as the norm. hopefully will see u all on the flip/
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Wish this was a real one. Hang in there.
hug
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
SnakeBite

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09/29/2012 03:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.ips.gov.au]

Hot again, 4 separate areas
 Quoting: whiteangel


IdontKNOWanythngREALLYaboutTHSmapBUTimWONDERINGwhatsCAUSINGth​eINTENSEregionsOVERthePASTfewDAYS
Anonymous Coward
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09/29/2012 03:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
space weather finally posted about the incoming storm.
INCOMING SOLAR STORM CLOUD:Magnetic fields around sunspot 1577 erupted on Sept. 28th, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the cloud as it raced away from the sun faster than 2.2 million mph:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
SnakeBite

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09/29/2012 03:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
space weather finally posted about the incoming storm.
INCOMING SOLAR STORM CLOUD:Magnetic fields around sunspot 1577 erupted on Sept. 28th, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the cloud as it raced away from the sun faster than 2.2 million mph:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1595536


JEEZEtookTHEMlongENOUGH!
<+MarketSellOff+>
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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09/29/2012 04:56 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
space weather finally posted about the incoming storm.
INCOMING SOLAR STORM CLOUD:Magnetic fields around sunspot 1577 erupted on Sept. 28th, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the cloud as it raced away from the sun faster than 2.2 million mph:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1595536


Finally. Sheesh
Luisport

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09/29/2012 05:39 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
space weather finally posted about the incoming storm.
INCOMING SOLAR STORM CLOUD:Magnetic fields around sunspot 1577 erupted on Sept. 28th, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the cloud as it raced away from the sun faster than 2.2 million mph:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1595536


NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of strong geomagnetic storms around the poles on Sept 30th when the cloud reaches Earth. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, which might be intense enough to see in spite of the full moonlight. Aurora alerts
shadasonic

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09/29/2012 05:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
space weather finally posted about the incoming storm.
INCOMING SOLAR STORM CLOUD:Magnetic fields around sunspot 1577 erupted on Sept. 28th, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the cloud as it raced away from the sun faster than 2.2 million mph:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1595536


NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of strong geomagnetic storms around the poles on Sept 30th when the cloud reaches Earth. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, which might be intense enough to see in spite of the full moonlight. Aurora alerts
 Quoting: Luisport


Thanks Luis. Well spaceweather is finally agreeing its directly towards earth,not up, down, or my favorite , it went backside. We've all been watching and studying this stuff for years and this one was a no brainer. Hugh , thanks for all your work!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
AkivaJeff

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09/29/2012 08:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all!

Any time the noaa forcasts 10% chance of M flares, there's a 50% chance they are wrong.

Kinda like the Murphy's law of solar activity.

abduct
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
madajs

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09/29/2012 08:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
space weather finally posted about the incoming storm.
INCOMING SOLAR STORM CLOUD:Magnetic fields around sunspot 1577 erupted on Sept. 28th, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the cloud as it raced away from the sun faster than 2.2 million mph:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1595536


NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of strong geomagnetic storms around the poles on Sept 30th when the cloud reaches Earth. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, which might be intense enough to see in spite of the full moonlight. Aurora alerts
 Quoting: Luisport

That jives with the geoeffective enlil simulation [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

If things adhere to the model then we only have to wait until 10am EST tomorrow morning. Obviously we all know there's a ton of +/- range on that timing though! Should be fun!

tounge
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
shadasonic

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09/29/2012 08:28 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Leaving town for a while, I'm sure this will bring about some incredible solar activity as my luck would have it that way. Will try to check in but may be in areas that won't allow it.Much love and peace to the sun family!
See ya soongrouphug

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 09/29/2012 08:28 AM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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09/29/2012 08:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Leaving town for a while, I'm sure this will bring about some incredible solar activity as my luck would have it that way. Will try to check in but may be in areas that won't allow it.Much love and peace to the sun family!
See ya soongrouphug
 Quoting: shadasonic


Safe travels Shada hf

Good morning everyone ...

Here's the forecast from Solen

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on September 29. The CME observed early on Sept.28 will likely reach Earth on Sept.30 and cause active to major storm conditions that day and on October 1.

[link to www.solen.info]
Anonymous Coward
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09/29/2012 08:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ummmmmmmmmmmmm wheres tbarhead,know it all at?
AkivaJeff

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09/29/2012 09:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's alot of activity going on. I think it will be an eventful day. I hope all the sun-smarties are up and around. I can barely keep up with watching, let alone researching my own stuff. By the time I come up with something I'm as slow as noaa.
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
AkivaJeff

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Happy early birthday TS!
My grandson, Elijah, turns 3 tomorrow 9/30.
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
SnakeBite

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
goodMORNINGall!!imOFFtoWORKSOiWONTbeONuntilLATER,happyHUNTING​everyone,seeYOUallINaFEWhours!
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Happy early birthday TS!
My grandson, Elijah, turns 3 tomorrow 9/30.
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Aww thanks ... 3 year olds are awesome !!! All my best Elijah hf
Vita
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09/29/2012 10:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Dont really understand, which one we will get on 30sep and 1 oct. The one from 27 or 28?
Vita
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Dont really understand, which one we will get on 30sep and 1 oct. The one from 27 or 28?
Vita
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Dont really understand, which one we will get on 30sep and 1 oct. The one from 27 or 28?
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Dont really understand, which one we will get on 30sep and 1 oct. The one from 27 or 28?
 Quoting: Vita 1396192

The filament eruption from early on the 28th will arrive, we estimate, on the 30th and it's impact last through the 1st.

hf
Vita

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09/29/2012 10:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Dont really understand, which one we will get on 30sep and 1 oct. The one from 27 or 28?
 Quoting: Vita 1396192

The filament eruption from early on the 28th will arrive, we estimate, on the 30th and it's impact last through the 1st.

hf
 Quoting: TS66


Thanks! but what about the one from 27? there were posts earlier that it will also arrive 30 or 1st... or am I mistaken?
Sol Lucet Omnibus.
Luisport

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09/29/2012 10:57 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Updated image of the visible solar disk. Solar activity is low on Saturday morning. The Solar X-Ray background levels are currently at or near the C1 threshold. There will remain the chance for C-Class solar flares and a lower threat of an isolated M-Class event. A Geomagnetic Storm watch will be in effect over the next 48 hours due to an expected incoming Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) impact. [link to twitter.com]
madajs

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09/29/2012 11:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Dont really understand, which one we will get on 30sep and 1 oct. The one from 27 or 28?
 Quoting: Vita 1396192

The filament eruption from early on the 28th will arrive, we estimate, on the 30th and it's impact last through the 1st.

hf
 Quoting: TS66


Thanks! but what about the one from 27? there were posts earlier that it will also arrive 30 or 1st... or am I mistaken?
 Quoting: Vita

There's only one earth directed CME

This model [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] would show any additional earth-directed CMEs, if there were any. :)
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24266114
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09/29/2012 11:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C4.4...
I believe what you are referring to is the C4.4 from the 27th. See below.

:flux927:


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24520219





Dont really understand, which one we will get on 30sep and 1 oct. The one from 27 or 28?
 Quoting: Vita 1396192

The filament eruption from early on the 28th will arrive, we estimate, on the 30th and it's impact last through the 1st.

hf
 Quoting: TS66



Thanks! but what about the one from 27? there were posts earlier that it will also arrive 30 or 1st... or am I mistaken?
 Quoting: Vita


I was never clear whether this eruption of C4.4 below 1579 resulted in a CME of any significance as the C3.7 filament eruption superseded it's predecessor with an enormous CME of it's own

hf
Anonymous Coward
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09/29/2012 11:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well that came out a jumbled mess considering my best efforts !!! lol

Hope this clarifies it for you 1dunno1

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