SOLAR WATCH * 255 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

Nice catch on the halo CME. New CME cygnet model shows a direct hit, though not as dense as the last big one.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

SOHO C3 image of Earth-directed CME:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Also, that coronal hole has doubled in size with the disappearance of that weird triangle configuration:

48-hr. AIA211 movie:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to mms.rice.edu]
this has happen several times and the only issue is IMF going south?

watch the TEC now go up.

Solar Influence Data Center has comments and analysis of incoming CME-

COMMENT: Solar flaring activity is below the C-level during the last
two days. An isolated C-class flare on the Sun is, however, possible. A
partial halo CME (angular width around 180 degrees) was detected by
SOHO/LASCO this morning. The CME is first seen in the LASCO C2 field of
view at 00:24 UT after a 7-hour long data gap, so it is difficult to
determine the eruption time precisely. The CME is first seen in the
STEREO A COR2 field of view at 04:24 UT, also after a long data gap.
STEREO data show that the partial halo CME is frontsided. GOES detected
a long-duration B7.5 flare peaking at 07:32 UT (with a long rise time).
SDO/AIA images show corresponding post-eruption loops in the NOAA AR
1584, as well as post-eruption loops connecting NOAA ARs 1582 and 1584.
The CME speed measured in the LASCO data was around 550 km/s. The
arrival of the corresponding ICME at the Earth can be expected early on
October 9. A weak geomagnetic disturbance (up to K = 5) is possible.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

This was great to watch last night. This bulge looks great on several of these wavelengths, but 94A seems to show it best.

Greets folks.

And somehow....even with all the bulging and tsunami-ing going on around and beneath it, the big ol' filament in the south is still hanging on.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Of course NASA's CME predicted arrival time is much different (that's OK, they'll change it a few times, haha)-

Event Issue Date: 2012-10-05 10:01:47.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-10-08 10:41:18.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.0 Re

ACTIVE REGION PROXIMITY ALERT:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

CACTus is way behind on this one, however SEEDS has a movie from the STEREO Ahead perspective:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Fingers and toes crossed

Just popped into the inbox:

Dear Mediacom customer,

Between today and October 19, 2012, you may notice brief interruptions in your television service due to sun outages. Twice each year, the sun is positioned directly in line with the ground-based satellites used to receive your television programming. This positioning causes short programming interruptions as the sun’s energy overpowers the signals transmitted by the satellites. These interruptions can cause the picture to become snowy, pixilated, completely blank or display a message such as ‘Channel Not Available’ or ‘One Moment Please’. This will happen several times throughout the day and normally lasts no more than 15 minutes each time.

There is no action that you need to take as your service will restore itself afterwards.

Kind regards,

Mediacom Communications

Damn...

check out how the CH is morphing and merging. awesome!

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Good catch on that CME guys! Looking forward to the geoeffective enlil model of this one, although as was already said, doesn't look like it's in the same category as the recent one.

Last Edited by madajs on 10/05/2012 03:29 PM

stunning at 335A
watch the movie:
[link to sdodata.oma.be]

Pretty freaky !!!

Thanks MS

LE electrons coming up:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


radial speed jumped a bit at approx 1400
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

coming up?
i looked at it...looks like they are coming right off the top of the graph.

yah weird.
i liked this filter as well
[link to sdodata.oma.be]

[link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]


EMERGING CME: A coronal mass ejection (CME) left the sun this morning, Oct. 5, and it could be heading for Earth. Orbiting at the L1 Lagrange point, the Solar

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

It wasn't quite that dramatic when I posted it, hehe, but you are right.

Why can't they just say ... direct hit kids !!! lol

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I can't remember who posted it before, but the TEC is high again concentrated around the same location of the M7.3 Columbia EQ about a week ago.

[link to www.ips.gov.au]

Last Edited by Rising Son on 10/05/2012 07:05 PM

UPDATE: Geoeffective Enlil has updated to show this CME.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This actually looks pretty dense, if not as thick as the last one. Simulating about 50/cm3 density once again!

=========================
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 499
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 05 2036 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 06: None (Below G1) Oct 07: None (Below G1) Oct 08: G1 (Minor)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
=========================

I think we may get a G2 out of this if the modelled density occurs alongside some negative Bz

Last Edited by madajs on 10/05/2012 07:22 PM

I'm thinking that the coronal hole winds will arrive right on the heels of this CME. If this happens we could see much higher wind speeds on the back end than ENLIL predicts; as well as a co-rotational interaction region. In short, we may see a prolonged geomagnetic disturbance early next week.

[link to mms.rice.edu]
looking here the IMF has been south for days now.
edit...well at least when i have checked it.

Last Edited by psyoptics on 10/05/2012 09:18 PM

Good night all. Peace

I was wondering how these two anomalies would mingle and interact. Now would be a bad time for another filament liftoff, I like the sound of co-rotational interaction, nice verbage HUGH!

Co-rotational Interaction Regions (CIRs)-Not my verbiage, LOL.

[link to www.physics.usyd.edu.au]

[link to ase.tufts.edu]

[link to www.ann-geophys.net]

Nifty sideways tornado of filament on the SE limb-

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Thanks VERY MUCH psy!!!

Hugh what are your feelings on the max cycle and the polarity swap. I know Nins theories, but I've never heard yours, or I've missed it which is probable. I respect your knowledge,and I'm starting to second guess my feelings on this transition. It seems delayed,weak,suprising,and very abnormal. Cesiums info on the GRB our star created has got me digging for info, and I'm somewhat worried about our sols ability to recharge. I'm thinking it could get real cold!

Also this is still bothering me.
[link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]

Thanks my good man for any and all responses!

Last Edited by shadasonic on 10/05/2012 11:25 PM

Well, I have to say, it's currently a welcome quiet. We are heading off to NH for the weekend, and have to admit I prefer it that way when we are away from home.

I'm a little upset that it will be cloudy Sunday night, I was hoping to catch the aurora up there. Oh well, such is life.

Have wonderful Columbus Day weekend, thank an Italian day ???? LOL

Good Morning Everyone,

Have a great day!

[link to www.youtube.com]