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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
psyoptics

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10/05/2012 11:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bz south -5
 Quoting: whiteangel

[link to mms.rice.edu]
this has happen several times and the only issue is IMF going south?

watch the TEC now go up.
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Hugh M Eye

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10/05/2012 11:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solar Influence Data Center has comments and analysis of incoming CME-

COMMENT: Solar flaring activity is below the C-level during the last
two days. An isolated C-class flare on the Sun is, however, possible. A
partial halo CME (angular width around 180 degrees) was detected by
SOHO/LASCO this morning. The CME is first seen in the LASCO C2 field of
view at 00:24 UT after a 7-hour long data gap, so it is difficult to
determine the eruption time precisely. The CME is first seen in the
STEREO A COR2 field of view at 04:24 UT, also after a long data gap.
STEREO data show that the partial halo CME is frontsided. GOES detected
a long-duration B7.5 flare peaking at 07:32 UT (with a long rise time).
SDO/AIA images show corresponding post-eruption loops in the NOAA AR
1584, as well as post-eruption loops connecting NOAA ARs 1582 and 1584.
The CME speed measured in the LASCO data was around 550 km/s. The
arrival of the corresponding ICME at the Earth can be expected early on
October 9. A weak geomagnetic disturbance (up to K = 5) is possible.


[link to sidc.oma.be]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
mistersplinter

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10/05/2012 11:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdodata.oma.be]

This was great to watch last night. This bulge looks great on several of these wavelengths, but 94A seems to show it best.

Greets folks.

rockon
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein

"The Upholder of the Cycles which supports the whole of Life, is water. In every drop of water dwells the Godhead, whom we all serve; there also dwells Life, the Soul of the "First" substance - Water - whose boundaries and banks are the capillaries that guide it and in which it circulates" -- Viktor Schauberger
mistersplinter

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10/05/2012 11:35 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And somehow....even with all the bulging and tsunami-ing going on around and beneath it, the big ol' filament in the south is still hanging on.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein

"The Upholder of the Cycles which supports the whole of Life, is water. In every drop of water dwells the Godhead, whom we all serve; there also dwells Life, the Soul of the "First" substance - Water - whose boundaries and banks are the capillaries that guide it and in which it circulates" -- Viktor Schauberger
Hugh M Eye

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10/05/2012 11:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Of course NASA's CME predicted arrival time is much different (that's OK, they'll change it a few times, haha)-

Event Issue Date: 2012-10-05 10:01:47.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-10-08 10:41:18.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.0 Re

ACTIVE REGION PROXIMITY ALERT:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

CACTus is way behind on this one, however SEEDS has a movie from the STEREO Ahead perspective:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24266114
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10/05/2012 11:45 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And somehow....even with all the bulging and tsunami-ing going on around and beneath it, the big ol' filament in the south is still hanging on.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: mistersplinter


Fingers and toes crossed hf
just a dude

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10/05/2012 01:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just popped into the inbox:

Dear Mediacom customer,

Between today and October 19, 2012, you may notice brief interruptions in your television service due to sun outages. Twice each year, the sun is positioned directly in line with the ground-based satellites used to receive your television programming. This positioning causes short programming interruptions as the sun’s energy overpowers the signals transmitted by the satellites. These interruptions can cause the picture to become snowy, pixilated, completely blank or display a message such as ‘Channel Not Available’ or ‘One Moment Please’. This will happen several times throughout the day and normally lasts no more than 15 minutes each time.

There is no action that you need to take as your service will restore itself afterwards.

Kind regards,

Mediacom Communications

Discretionary email only, please.
mistersplinter

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10/05/2012 03:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Damn...

check out how the CH is morphing and merging. awesome!

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein

"The Upholder of the Cycles which supports the whole of Life, is water. In every drop of water dwells the Godhead, whom we all serve; there also dwells Life, the Soul of the "First" substance - Water - whose boundaries and banks are the capillaries that guide it and in which it circulates" -- Viktor Schauberger
madajs

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10/05/2012 03:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good catch on that CME guys! Looking forward to the geoeffective enlil model of this one, although as was already said, doesn't look like it's in the same category as the recent one.

Last Edited by madajs on 10/05/2012 03:29 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
mistersplinter

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10/05/2012 03:29 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Damn...

check out how the CH is morphing and merging. awesome!

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: mistersplinter


stunning at 335A
watch the movie:
[link to sdodata.oma.be]
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein

"The Upholder of the Cycles which supports the whole of Life, is water. In every drop of water dwells the Godhead, whom we all serve; there also dwells Life, the Soul of the "First" substance - Water - whose boundaries and banks are the capillaries that guide it and in which it circulates" -- Viktor Schauberger
Anonymous Coward
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10/05/2012 03:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Damn...

check out how the CH is morphing and merging. awesome!

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: mistersplinter


stunning at 335A
watch the movie:
[link to sdodata.oma.be]
 Quoting: mistersplinter


Pretty freaky !!!

Thanks MS
mistersplinter

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10/05/2012 03:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
LE electrons coming up:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


radial speed jumped a bit at approx 1400
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein

"The Upholder of the Cycles which supports the whole of Life, is water. In every drop of water dwells the Godhead, whom we all serve; there also dwells Life, the Soul of the "First" substance - Water - whose boundaries and banks are the capillaries that guide it and in which it circulates" -- Viktor Schauberger
psyoptics

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10/05/2012 05:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
LE electrons coming up:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]



 Quoting: mistersplinter


coming up?
i looked at it...looks like they are coming right off the top of the graph.
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
psyoptics

User ID: 11919225
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10/05/2012 05:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Damn...

check out how the CH is morphing and merging. awesome!

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: mistersplinter


stunning at 335A
watch the movie:
[link to sdodata.oma.be]
 Quoting: mistersplinter


yah weird.
i liked this filter as well
[link to sdodata.oma.be]
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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10/05/2012 06:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]


EMERGING CME: A coronal mass ejection (CME) left the sun this morning, Oct. 5, and it could be heading for Earth. Orbiting at the L1 Lagrange point, the Solar

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
mistersplinter

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10/05/2012 06:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
LE electrons coming up:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]



 Quoting: mistersplinter


coming up?
i looked at it...looks like they are coming right off the top of the graph.
 Quoting: psyoptics


It wasn't quite that dramatic when I posted it, hehe, but you are right.

rockon
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein

"The Upholder of the Cycles which supports the whole of Life, is water. In every drop of water dwells the Godhead, whom we all serve; there also dwells Life, the Soul of the "First" substance - Water - whose boundaries and banks are the capillaries that guide it and in which it circulates" -- Viktor Schauberger
Anonymous Coward
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10/05/2012 06:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]


EMERGING CME: A coronal mass ejection (CME) left the sun this morning, Oct. 5, and it could be heading for Earth. Orbiting at the L1 Lagrange point, the Solar

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Why can't they just say ... direct hit kids !!! lol

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
Rising Son
Spirit Of The Wolf, Soul Of The Lion

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10/05/2012 07:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I can't remember who posted it before, but the TEC is high again concentrated around the same location of the M7.3 Columbia EQ about a week ago.

[link to www.ips.gov.au]

Last Edited by Rising Son on 10/05/2012 07:05 PM
"And God shall wipe away all tears from their eyes; and there shall be no more death, neither sorrow, nor crying, neither shall there be any more pain: for the former things are passed away." - Revelation 21:4

Truth needs no validation because it is self-evident and undeniable. Therefore, anything that requires validation to be realized or justified as truth must contain at least some degree of falsehood.

[link to www.youtube.com]

[link to www.youtube.com]

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
madajs

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10/05/2012 07:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
UPDATE: Geoeffective Enlil has updated to show this CME.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This actually looks pretty dense, if not as thick as the last one. Simulating about 50/cm3 density once again!

=========================
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 499
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 05 2036 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 06: None (Below G1) Oct 07: None (Below G1) Oct 08: G1 (Minor)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
=========================

I think we may get a G2 out of this if the modelled density occurs alongside some negative Bz

Last Edited by madajs on 10/05/2012 07:22 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Hugh M Eye

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10/05/2012 08:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
UPDATE: Geoeffective Enlil has updated to show this CME.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This actually looks pretty dense, if not as thick as the last one. Simulating about 50/cm3 density once again!

=========================
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 499
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 05 2036 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 06: None (Below G1) Oct 07: None (Below G1) Oct 08: G1 (Minor)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
=========================

I think we may get a G2 out of this if the modelled density occurs alongside some negative Bz
 Quoting: madajs


I'm thinking that the coronal hole winds will arrive right on the heels of this CME. If this happens we could see much higher wind speeds on the back end than ENLIL predicts; as well as a co-rotational interaction region. In short, we may see a prolonged geomagnetic disturbance early next week.
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
psyoptics

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10/05/2012 09:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
UPDATE: Geoeffective Enlil has updated to show this CME.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This actually looks pretty dense, if not as thick as the last one. Simulating about 50/cm3 density once again!

=========================
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 499
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 05 2036 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 06: None (Below G1) Oct 07: None (Below G1) Oct 08: G1 (Minor)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
=========================

I think we may get a G2 out of this if the modelled density occurs alongside some negative Bz
 Quoting: madajs


I'm thinking that the coronal hole winds will arrive right on the heels of this CME. If this happens we could see much higher wind speeds on the back end than ENLIL predicts; as well as a co-rotational interaction region. In short, we may see a prolonged geomagnetic disturbance early next week.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

[link to mms.rice.edu]
looking here the IMF has been south for days now.
edit...well at least when i have checked it.

Last Edited by psyoptics on 10/05/2012 09:18 PM
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
shenue

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10/05/2012 09:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night all. Peace
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
shadasonic

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10/05/2012 10:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
UPDATE: Geoeffective Enlil has updated to show this CME.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This actually looks pretty dense, if not as thick as the last one. Simulating about 50/cm3 density once again!

=========================
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 499
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 05 2036 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 06: None (Below G1) Oct 07: None (Below G1) Oct 08: G1 (Minor)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
=========================

I think we may get a G2 out of this if the modelled density occurs alongside some negative Bz
 Quoting: madajs


I'm thinking that the coronal hole winds will arrive right on the heels of this CME. If this happens we could see much higher wind speeds on the back end than ENLIL predicts; as well as a co-rotational interaction region. In short, we may see a prolonged geomagnetic disturbance early next week.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I was wondering how these two anomalies would mingle and interact. Now would be a bad time for another filament liftoff, I like the sound of co-rotational interaction, nice verbage HUGH!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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10/05/2012 10:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
UPDATE: Geoeffective Enlil has updated to show this CME.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This actually looks pretty dense, if not as thick as the last one. Simulating about 50/cm3 density once again!

=========================
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 499
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 05 2036 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 06: None (Below G1) Oct 07: None (Below G1) Oct 08: G1 (Minor)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
=========================

I think we may get a G2 out of this if the modelled density occurs alongside some negative Bz
 Quoting: madajs


I'm thinking that the coronal hole winds will arrive right on the heels of this CME. If this happens we could see much higher wind speeds on the back end than ENLIL predicts; as well as a co-rotational interaction region. In short, we may see a prolonged geomagnetic disturbance early next week.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I was wondering how these two anomalies would mingle and interact. Now would be a bad time for another filament liftoff, I like the sound of co-rotational interaction, nice verbage HUGH!
 Quoting: shadasonic


Co-rotational Interaction Regions (CIRs)-Not my verbiage, LOL.

[link to www.physics.usyd.edu.au]

[link to ase.tufts.edu]

[link to www.ann-geophys.net]

spock
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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10/05/2012 10:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nifty sideways tornado of filament on the SE limb-

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Isis One

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10/05/2012 11:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Stereo Ahead Video up to now [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] and [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

So it's not the largest of CMEs' we've seen - But it's still fairly 'Straight on'.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Those never load for me :(
 Quoting: Isis One

you need quicktime player
go here
down load it
[link to www.apple.com]
 Quoting: psyoptics


Thanks VERY MUCH psy!!!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
shadasonic

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10/05/2012 11:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nifty sideways tornado of filament on the SE limb-

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hugh what are your feelings on the max cycle and the polarity swap. I know Nins theories, but I've never heard yours, or I've missed it which is probable. I respect your knowledge,and I'm starting to second guess my feelings on this transition. It seems delayed,weak,suprising,and very abnormal. Cesiums info on the GRB our star created has got me digging for info, and I'm somewhat worried about our sols ability to recharge. I'm thinking it could get real cold!

Also this is still bothering me.
[link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]

Thanks my good man for any and all responses!

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 10/05/2012 11:25 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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10/06/2012 06:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, I have to say, it's currently a welcome quiet. We are heading off to NH for the weekend, and have to admit I prefer it that way when we are away from home.

I'm a little upset that it will be cloudy Sunday night, I was hoping to catch the aurora up there. Oh well, such is life.

Have wonderful Columbus Day weekend, thank an Italian day ???? LOL
Tiny Trink

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10/06/2012 07:04 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning Everyone,

Have a great day!

[link to www.youtube.com]



Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
shenue

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10/06/2012 07:05 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all.

66 Have a great weekend!
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.