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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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10/07/2012 07:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thx for the great work guys, keep it up :)
Anonymous Coward
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10/07/2012 08:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Southern Filament has now definitely left the building [link to halpha.nso.edu] just awaiting Stereo to show how large a CME may be that is associated with this,if at all.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I thought it lifted off on the very first vid of it you posted an hour ago!!
 Quoting: Isis One


It was lifting off : )

It has now actually lifted off [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to halpha.nso.edu] : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I knew it!! And of course I'm 300 miles from home at a campground with only iPhone to keep track!! Keep. Up the good work guys and the great posts
Any word on the CME arrival today? I'd look but I'm somewhat limited


Thanks guys. hf
Tiny Trink

User ID: 24908218
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10/07/2012 08:50 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Everyone,

[link to www.youtube.com]



Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
El Quisqueyano

User ID: 24943087
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10/07/2012 09:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

wtf
IZeSC?
User ID: 14589973
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10/07/2012 09:45 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello again all - Back in now.

We have action from 1585 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] It's made a few of the other SDO images go weird also [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

I'm hunting : )
Anonymous Coward
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10/07/2012 09:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Nice one ElQ!

Thats' what I was waiting for - it is due to the Southern Filament lifting off earlier [link to halpha.nso.edu] In the South(obviously).

: )
El Quisqueyano

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10/07/2012 09:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Nice one ElQ!

Thats' what I was waiting for - it is due to the Southern Filament lifting off earlier [link to halpha.nso.edu] In the South(obviously).

: )
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14589973


Looks threatening.
El Quisqueyano

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10/07/2012 09:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Nice one ElQ!

Thats' what I was waiting for - it is due to the Southern Filament lifting off earlier [link to halpha.nso.edu] In the South(obviously).

: )
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14589973


You think it's earth facing?
IzeSC?
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10/07/2012 09:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Nice one ElQ!

Thats' what I was waiting for - it is due to the Southern Filament lifting off earlier [link to halpha.nso.edu] In the South(obviously).

: )
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14589973


You think it's earth facing?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Looking at Stereo Ahead [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] most appears to be going South but as the C2 video shows,some is coming this way also.
Spittin'Cesium

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10/07/2012 10:06 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Nice one ElQ!

Thats' what I was waiting for - it is due to the Southern Filament lifting off earlier [link to halpha.nso.edu] In the South(obviously).

: )
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14589973


You think it's earth facing?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Here you go Brother [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] .

Should be partially Geo-effective.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/07/2012 10:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Southern Filament has now definitely left the building [link to halpha.nso.edu] just awaiting Stereo to show how large a CME may be that is associated with this,if at all.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I thought it lifted off on the very first vid of it you posted an hour ago!!
 Quoting: Isis One


It was lifting off : )

It has now actually lifted off [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to halpha.nso.edu] : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I knew it!! And of course I'm 300 miles from home at a campground with only iPhone to keep track!! Keep. Up the good work guys and the great posts
Any word on the CME arrival today? I'd look but I'm somewhat limited


Thanks guys. hf
 Quoting: TS66


CME Arrival should be sometime tomorrow now me luvly : )

Here -

Event Issue Date: 2012-10-05 10:01:47.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-10-08 10:41:18.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.0 Re

I hope you and your Gorgeous Hair are enjoying yourselveshf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/07/2012 10:10 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Nice one ElQ!

Thats' what I was waiting for - it is due to the Southern Filament lifting off earlier [link to halpha.nso.edu] In the South(obviously).

: )
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14589973



Well,that and the other Coronal disturbing eruption earlier to the Left of 1582.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
AkivaJeff

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United States
10/07/2012 10:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Nice one ElQ!

Thats' what I was waiting for - it is due to the Southern Filament lifting off earlier [link to halpha.nso.edu] In the South(obviously).

: )
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14589973


You think it's earth facing?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Here you go Brother [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] .

Should be partially Geo-effective.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Sorry SC, I only get a face full of code on this link.
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
10/07/2012 10:14 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Enlil [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] It will hit us.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
10/07/2012 10:16 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Nice one ElQ!

Thats' what I was waiting for - it is due to the Southern Filament lifting off earlier [link to halpha.nso.edu] In the South(obviously).

: )
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14589973


You think it's earth facing?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Here you go Brother [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] .

Should be partially Geo-effective.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Sorry SC, I only get a face full of code on this link.
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Do you not have Quicktime Player
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
AkivaJeff

User ID: 19183578
United States
10/07/2012 10:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


You think it's earth facing?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Here you go Brother [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] .

Should be partially Geo-effective.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Sorry SC, I only get a face full of code on this link.
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Do you not have Quicktime Player
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I thought I did but will check. Your next post was fine and it will def. hit us. Thanks.
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
Spittin'Cesium

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United Kingdom
10/07/2012 10:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Nice one ElQ!

Thats' what I was waiting for - it is due to the Southern Filament lifting off earlier [link to halpha.nso.edu] In the South(obviously).

: )
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14589973


You think it's earth facing?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Here you go Brother [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] .

Should be partially Geo-effective.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Sorry SC, I only get a face full of code on this link.
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Here,have this instead [link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] and [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] and [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.co.uk]

.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
AkivaJeff

User ID: 19183578
United States
10/07/2012 10:31 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


You think it's earth facing?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Here you go Brother [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] .

Should be partially Geo-effective.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Sorry SC, I only get a face full of code on this link.
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Here,have this instead [link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] and [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] and [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.co.uk]

.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Thanks, SC. Those are excellent!
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
10/07/2012 10:38 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Here you go Brother [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] .

Should be partially Geo-effective.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Sorry SC, I only get a face full of code on this link.
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Here,have this instead [link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] and [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] and [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.co.uk]

.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Thanks, SC. Those are excellent!
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


No problem Akiva - Just helping a fellow Sol Bro' out : )

.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
10/07/2012 12:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm back in - I just spent a fair old while trying to link up our Suspicious0bservers with info pertaining to Water and Water Vapour in Sunspots - YT won't allow me to PM him so I had to C/P a load of quotes from different sites and splurge them all over his comments board : )

For those here who may be interested in the Phenomenon of Water within our own Suns' Sunspots just enter this search term into Google 'Water in Sunspots' and you should pull up a load of sites : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
10/07/2012 12:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Everyone,

[link to www.youtube.com]



 Quoting: Tiny Trink


Thank you again Tink Tinkflower

Hope you are well : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
10/07/2012 12:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
For some reason there is nearly 5 Hours of missing data from the C2 Uploads [link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
10/07/2012 12:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know what to correctly call the almost straight line Coronal Hole in the South here [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] would 'Coronal Crack' be adequate!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
10/07/2012 12:35 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ok,so..we have a new updated Alert of a G1(or greater)Storm lasting from the 8th through to the 10th -

'Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 500
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 07 1210 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 08: G1 (Minor) Oct 09: G1 (Minor) Oct 10: None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine'
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

That will need to be yet updated.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Tiny Trink

User ID: 24908218
United States
10/07/2012 12:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Everyone,

[link to www.youtube.com]



 Quoting: Tiny Trink


Thank you again Tink Tinkflower

Hope you are well : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium




Hi SC hi

I am doing well, just lurking these days besides my morning news posting.

Hope you are well too!! hugs
Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 22914370
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10/07/2012 01:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Update from SIDC-

COMMENT: Solar flaring activity is expected to remain at the B-level,
although an isolated C-class flare from the NOAA AR 1585 is not
excluded. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 330 km/s) solar
wind flow with slightly elevated (around 8 nT) interplanetary magnetic
field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming
hours due to low solar wind speed. Early on October 9 we expect the
arrival of the ICME corresponding to the halo CME observed on the Sun on
October 5, probably interacting with the fast solar wind flow from a
small low-latitude coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. A weak
geomagnetic disturbance (up to K = 5) will be possible.


[link to sidc.oma.be]

The new CME which was spotted from the SW eruption is not likely to be geoeffective. We could see a shock, a glancing ripple, or another co-rotational interaction region on the rear end of the CH wind-stream.

NASA CME cone model:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

SEEDS Movie of CMEs (note-there was a far-side CME at nearly the same time)

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
AkivaJeff

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10/07/2012 02:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I watch this thread with great anticipation. I also watch Gabe and El Q. What I see is that the Earth and the Sun dance together always. I'm sure others see this, too. What keeps me so excited is that I am sure there is a connection that I cannot put my finger on. Does anyone else have this sense?
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
madajs

User ID: 24791599
Canada
10/07/2012 03:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A CME, then CH effects, then another smaller CME. The Sun is throwing a mixed combination at Earth. :)

PS. The geoeffective Enlil model is acting very strangely. Out of the blue it has switched to ambient mode and wiped all CMEs from it's current model run. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Normal behaviour for this model would be to show all Earth-directed activity (including multiple CMEs) during a time period. I hope this is just a mistake and not an omen of how this model will start to behave in the future.

Here's a screen cap of the 10-5 CME model for our reference. [link to i104.photobucket.com]

Last Edited by madajs on 10/07/2012 03:22 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
shadasonic

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10/07/2012 03:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I watch this thread with great anticipation. I also watch Gabe and El Q. What I see is that the Earth and the Sun dance together always. I'm sure others see this, too. What keeps me so excited is that I am sure there is a connection that I cannot put my finger on. Does anyone else have this sense?
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Most definitely
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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10/07/2012 03:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A CME, then CH effects, then another smaller CME. The Sun is throwing a mixed combination at Earth. :)

PS. The geoeffective Enlil model is acting very strangely. Out of the blue it has switched to ambient mode and wiped all CMEs from it's current model run. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Normal behaviour for this model would be to show all Earth-directed activity (including multiple CMEs) during a time period. I hope this is just a mistake and not an omen of how this model will start to behave in the future.

Here's a screen cap of the 10-5 CME model for our reference. [link to i104.photobucket.com]
 Quoting: madajs


I noticed this, thanks for the catch
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan

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