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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Spittin'Cesium

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10/07/2012 10:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Nice one ElQ!

Thats' what I was waiting for - it is due to the Southern Filament lifting off earlier [link to halpha.nso.edu] In the South(obviously).

: )
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14589973


You think it's earth facing?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Here you go Brother [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] .

Should be partially Geo-effective.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Sorry SC, I only get a face full of code on this link.
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Do you not have Quicktime Player
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
AkivaJeff

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10/07/2012 10:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


You think it's earth facing?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Here you go Brother [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] .

Should be partially Geo-effective.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Sorry SC, I only get a face full of code on this link.
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Do you not have Quicktime Player
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I thought I did but will check. Your next post was fine and it will def. hit us. Thanks.
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
Spittin'Cesium

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10/07/2012 10:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Nice one ElQ!

Thats' what I was waiting for - it is due to the Southern Filament lifting off earlier [link to halpha.nso.edu] In the South(obviously).

: )
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14589973


You think it's earth facing?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Here you go Brother [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] .

Should be partially Geo-effective.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Sorry SC, I only get a face full of code on this link.
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Here,have this instead [link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] and [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] and [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.co.uk]

.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
AkivaJeff

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10/07/2012 10:31 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


You think it's earth facing?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Here you go Brother [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] .

Should be partially Geo-effective.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Sorry SC, I only get a face full of code on this link.
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Here,have this instead [link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] and [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] and [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.co.uk]

.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Thanks, SC. Those are excellent!
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
Spittin'Cesium

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10/07/2012 10:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Here you go Brother [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] .

Should be partially Geo-effective.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Sorry SC, I only get a face full of code on this link.
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Here,have this instead [link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] and [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] and [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.co.uk]

.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Thanks, SC. Those are excellent!
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


No problem Akiva - Just helping a fellow Sol Bro' out : )

.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/07/2012 12:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm back in - I just spent a fair old while trying to link up our Suspicious0bservers with info pertaining to Water and Water Vapour in Sunspots - YT won't allow me to PM him so I had to C/P a load of quotes from different sites and splurge them all over his comments board : )

For those here who may be interested in the Phenomenon of Water within our own Suns' Sunspots just enter this search term into Google 'Water in Sunspots' and you should pull up a load of sites : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/07/2012 12:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Everyone,

[link to www.youtube.com]



 Quoting: Tiny Trink


Thank you again Tink Tinkflower

Hope you are well : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/07/2012 12:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
For some reason there is nearly 5 Hours of missing data from the C2 Uploads [link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/07/2012 12:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know what to correctly call the almost straight line Coronal Hole in the South here [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] would 'Coronal Crack' be adequate!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/07/2012 12:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ok,so..we have a new updated Alert of a G1(or greater)Storm lasting from the 8th through to the 10th -

'Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 500
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 07 1210 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 08: G1 (Minor) Oct 09: G1 (Minor) Oct 10: None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine'
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

That will need to be yet updated.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Tiny Trink

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10/07/2012 12:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Everyone,

[link to www.youtube.com]



 Quoting: Tiny Trink


Thank you again Tink Tinkflower

Hope you are well : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium




Hi SC hi

I am doing well, just lurking these days besides my morning news posting.

Hope you are well too!! hugs
Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Hugh M Eye

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10/07/2012 01:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Update from SIDC-

COMMENT: Solar flaring activity is expected to remain at the B-level,
although an isolated C-class flare from the NOAA AR 1585 is not
excluded. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 330 km/s) solar
wind flow with slightly elevated (around 8 nT) interplanetary magnetic
field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming
hours due to low solar wind speed. Early on October 9 we expect the
arrival of the ICME corresponding to the halo CME observed on the Sun on
October 5, probably interacting with the fast solar wind flow from a
small low-latitude coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. A weak
geomagnetic disturbance (up to K = 5) will be possible.


[link to sidc.oma.be]

The new CME which was spotted from the SW eruption is not likely to be geoeffective. We could see a shock, a glancing ripple, or another co-rotational interaction region on the rear end of the CH wind-stream.

NASA CME cone model:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

SEEDS Movie of CMEs (note-there was a far-side CME at nearly the same time)

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
AkivaJeff

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10/07/2012 02:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I watch this thread with great anticipation. I also watch Gabe and El Q. What I see is that the Earth and the Sun dance together always. I'm sure others see this, too. What keeps me so excited is that I am sure there is a connection that I cannot put my finger on. Does anyone else have this sense?
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
madajs

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10/07/2012 03:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A CME, then CH effects, then another smaller CME. The Sun is throwing a mixed combination at Earth. :)

PS. The geoeffective Enlil model is acting very strangely. Out of the blue it has switched to ambient mode and wiped all CMEs from it's current model run. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Normal behaviour for this model would be to show all Earth-directed activity (including multiple CMEs) during a time period. I hope this is just a mistake and not an omen of how this model will start to behave in the future.

Here's a screen cap of the 10-5 CME model for our reference. [link to i104.photobucket.com]

Last Edited by madajs on 10/07/2012 03:22 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
shadasonic

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10/07/2012 03:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I watch this thread with great anticipation. I also watch Gabe and El Q. What I see is that the Earth and the Sun dance together always. I'm sure others see this, too. What keeps me so excited is that I am sure there is a connection that I cannot put my finger on. Does anyone else have this sense?
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Most definitely
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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10/07/2012 03:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A CME, then CH effects, then another smaller CME. The Sun is throwing a mixed combination at Earth. :)

PS. The geoeffective Enlil model is acting very strangely. Out of the blue it has switched to ambient mode and wiped all CMEs from it's current model run. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Normal behaviour for this model would be to show all Earth-directed activity (including multiple CMEs) during a time period. I hope this is just a mistake and not an omen of how this model will start to behave in the future.

Here's a screen cap of the 10-5 CME model for our reference. [link to i104.photobucket.com]
 Quoting: madajs


I noticed this, thanks for the catch
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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10/07/2012 03:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A CME, then CH effects, then another smaller CME. The Sun is throwing a mixed combination at Earth. :)

PS. The geoeffective Enlil model is acting very strangely. Out of the blue it has switched to ambient mode and wiped all CMEs from it's current model run. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Normal behaviour for this model would be to show all Earth-directed activity (including multiple CMEs) during a time period. I hope this is just a mistake and not an omen of how this model will start to behave in the future.

Here's a screen cap of the 10-5 CME model for our reference. [link to i104.photobucket.com]
 Quoting: madajs


They used to have 2 separate ENLIL Models (CME & Ambient); why they consolidated them is another NOAA mystery. I never liked NOAA's model compared to the iSWA-Goddard models anyway. You would think they'd do a better job since they're the Official Space Weather Prediction Agency for the entire globe, LOL.

I'm not really expecting a whole lot from this CME (the eruption only caused a B7 flare), however it should be interesting to see how it interacts with the CH wind stream.
Hugh M Eye

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10/07/2012 03:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I watch this thread with great anticipation. I also watch Gabe and El Q. What I see is that the Earth and the Sun dance together always. I'm sure others see this, too. What keeps me so excited is that I am sure there is a connection that I cannot put my finger on. Does anyone else have this sense?
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Most definitely
 Quoting: shadasonic


There's not one shred of hard evidence linking earthquakes to solar activity (outside of GLP and other hearsay). In fact all of the evidence shows no correlation at all.

EARTHQUAKES vs. SS ACTIVITY-

equ-ss

However increased solar activity DOES produce Republican Senators. Here's proof-

senators-ss
madajs

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10/07/2012 03:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
That's interesting Hugh, I've developed the opposite opinion. The cygnet Enlil runs seem rushed and less accurate (see the 9-28 CME prediction of a hasty arrival time [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] )

Whereas the geoeffective Enlil model processes data longer first, and often fine tunes itself multiple times before arrival. It pretty much nailed the 10-01 impact particulars on the head.

To each their own I guess :) for me I use the cygnet for a rough draft then wait on geo-Enlil for the actual refined particulars.

Last Edited by madajs on 10/07/2012 04:03 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Hugh M Eye

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10/07/2012 04:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
That's interesting Hugh, I've developed the opposite opinion. The cygnet Enlil runs seem rushed and less accurate (see the 9-28 CME prediction of a hasty arrival time [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] )

Whereas the geoeffective Enlil model processes data longer first, and often fine tunes itself multiple times before arrival. It pretty much nailed the 10-01 impact particulars on the head.

To each their own I guess :) for me I use the cygnet for a rough draft then wait on geo-Enlil for the actual refined particulars.
 Quoting: madajs


It looks like they fine-tuned-away the CME and the CH winds. And what's that hump of plasma density shown coming on 10/11-12? Did I miss something here?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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10/07/2012 04:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We may have a C-flare at long last...maybe from the NE limb...I can't see much yet.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
madajs

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10/07/2012 04:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It looks like they fine-tuned-away the CME and the CH winds. And what's that hump of plasma density shown coming on 10/11-12? Did I miss something here?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

If you look on the left it shows a dense wind stream (poss. CH?) modelled to hit at that point. Considering it just went ahead and deleted a 50/cm3 CME, I'm gonna go ahead and throw an asterisk on anything this model is simulating until they get their crap back in order lol!

PS. That dense wind stream could be attributed to the new CH that just came over the limb, seen here [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by madajs on 10/07/2012 05:06 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
AkivaJeff

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10/07/2012 04:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We may have a C-flare at long last...maybe from the NE limb...I can't see much yet.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


WOOHOO. Finally a C!.
The interesting thing is what Hugh, SC, and splinter (et.al.) have been talking about. That is FILAMENT eruptions. From what I have seen this is unprecedented territory. Sunspots, CMEs, etc. have always been the focus of NOAA, NASA, etc. but the GLP group has identified phenomena that does not adhere to their tripe. GREAT JOB folks. Shada, SC, NiN, Hugh, Splinter, Isis, Madass, TS, Shenue, SB, Mang, ETC, (even TBar) (I could go on and on)and many others are LEADERS in finding truth in the real world, I love you all. (no man crushes, though). Just from the heart.

I don't want to leave anyone out. It's just off the top of my head. But please include Gabe, El Q, Mil_Man, whiteangel, the "Moms", I ;ove you all.

Last Edited by AkivaJeff on 10/07/2012 04:59 PM
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
SnakeBite

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10/07/2012 07:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We may have a C-flare at long last...maybe from the NE limb...I can't see much yet.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


WOOHOO. Finally a C!.
The interesting thing is what Hugh, SC, and splinter (et.al.) have been talking about. That is FILAMENT eruptions. From what I have seen this is unprecedented territory. Sunspots, CMEs, etc. have always been the focus of NOAA, NASA, etc. but the GLP group has identified phenomena that does not adhere to their tripe. GREAT JOB folks. Shada, SC, NiN, Hugh, Splinter, Isis, Madass, TS, Shenue, SB, Mang, ETC, (even TBar) (I could go on and on)and many others are LEADERS in finding truth in the real world, I love you all. (no man crushes, though). Just from the heart.

I don't want to leave anyone out. It's just off the top of my head. But please include Gabe, El Q, Mil_Man, whiteangel, the "Moms", I ;ove you all.
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


cheers
shadasonic

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10/07/2012 07:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I watch this thread with great anticipation. I also watch Gabe and El Q. What I see is that the Earth and the Sun dance together always. I'm sure others see this, too. What keeps me so excited is that I am sure there is a connection that I cannot put my finger on. Does anyone else have this sense?
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


Most definitely
 Quoting: shadasonic


There's not one shred of hard evidence linking earthquakes to solar activity (outside of GLP and other hearsay). In fact all of the evidence shows no correlation at all.

EARTHQUAKES vs. SS ACTIVITY-

equ-ss

However increased solar activity DOES produce Republican Senators. Here's proof-

senators-ss
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I know, still seems theres no way solar radiation doesn't somehow on a cummulative absorption rate relate to an increase in shear pressure,even over a period of time. I've seen this info you present and it looks cut and dried, still have my own beliefs. Thanks for the info though, it may help people less stubborn than me in their decisions

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 10/07/2012 07:49 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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10/07/2012 08:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We may have a C-flare at long last...maybe from the NE limb...I can't see much yet.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


The C 1.2 flare was indeed from beyond the NE limb which is why I couldn't see anything.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Also SOHO showing a far-side CME which may be related:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Note: This is the first C-flare since 10/02!

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 10/07/2012 08:15 PM
Hugh M Eye

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10/07/2012 08:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Woo-hoo! Another C-flare, from the same region apparently.

The Boulder magnetometer is showing a K index of 3 now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE data showing the Bz has been steadily South (-5nT).

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I can't believe it's so boring lately that I'm getting excited about a C 1 flare and K=3 (quiet). I feel so pathetic, LOL.
madajs

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10/07/2012 09:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We may have a C-flare at long last...maybe from the NE limb...I can't see much yet.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


The C 1.2 flare was indeed from beyond the NE limb which is why I couldn't see anything.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Also SOHO showing a far-side CME which may be related:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Note: This is the first C-flare since 10/02!

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Not sure if it's the same one but cygnet enlil showing a pretty powerful farside CME [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Hugh M Eye

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10/07/2012 10:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We may have a C-flare at long last...maybe from the NE limb...I can't see much yet.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


The C 1.2 flare was indeed from beyond the NE limb which is why I couldn't see anything.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Also SOHO showing a far-side CME which may be related:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Note: This is the first C-flare since 10/02!

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Not sure if it's the same one but cygnet enlil showing a pretty powerful farside CME [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


The region near the northeast limb which gave us the C1 flares should be visible on the Earth-side within 48 hours. I'm not certain but I'm guessing it was the source of the CME. CONFIRMED-definitely that region.

STEREO B EUVI movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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10/07/2012 10:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nice unexpected bump in the ACE Protons and Electrons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The GOES Proton flux might be a teensy-bit agitated as well;

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Not bad for a far-side event...this new region may make for an interesting week (I hope).

farside


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