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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2012 03:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SDO Composite of action near the Southeast limb-
:SE-erupt:
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2012 03:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SDO Composite of action near the Southeast limb-
:SE-erupt:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


RED ..RUNING...ANUNAKI!!!!
madajs

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10/08/2012 03:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Want to ask you experts about proton density... how many protons/cm3 are we talking for a proton storm? How many protons /cm3 for a S1, S2 and so on? Cannot seem to find that info online....
 Quoting: vivaveritas 3017266


S1, S2 (and so on) storms are solar radiation storms
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

the Physical measure is located to the right of the storm size
:)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks Nin - but how to transfer that measure into protons/cm3??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266


I mean at what protons/cm3 rate should we be alarmed about a proton storm?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266

I think you are getting plasma density and proton flux mixed up. I don't believe proton flux/radiation storms are generally measured in r2N/cm3, that is usually used for plasma density.

Plasma density is a measure of how dense solar wind is, or a CME. The higher the r2N/cm3 plasma density count, the denser the solar wind or CME is, and the more impact will be felt/geomagnetic storming can occur.

I know next to nothing about solar radiation storms (S1, S2, etc.) but NiN linked you to plenty to understand that side of things (not related to plasma density as far as I know, and generally won't be measured in cm3).

Last Edited by madajs on 10/09/2012 03:47 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Spittin'Cesium

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10/08/2012 03:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE Data showing Bz is very much South - More incoming!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/08/2012 04:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
DRap showing absorption [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] if only a very little.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
madajs

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10/08/2012 04:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE Data showing Bz is very much South - More incoming!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium

Ya but I can't find any density anywhere, so the G1 warning may not fulfill itself, hmm

"Caution: ACE Maneuver" <-- I take this to mean the satellite is in maneuvers at the moment and it's readings might not be particularly accurate for the moment? [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

PS. Almost reached 40,000 posts in this thread :)

Last Edited by madajs on 10/08/2012 04:19 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Spittin'Cesium

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10/08/2012 04:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE Data showing Bz is very much South - More incoming!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium

Ya but I can't find any density anywhere, so the G1 warning may not fulfill itself, hmm
 Quoting: madajs


Yes,that is a bit of a problem : )

An ongoing one with ACE - It could be due to the IMF also being very much South,which it is - CH Stream.

I'm flying blind here as I am not on my Cpu.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/08/2012 04:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE Data showing Bz is very much South - More incoming!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium

Ya but I can't find any density anywhere, so the G1 warning may not fulfill itself, hmm

"Caution: ACE Maneuver" <-- I take this to mean the satellite is in maneuvers at the moment and it's readings might not be particularly accurate for the moment? [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


Aye'..that should help explain it!
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
optimum judgment

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10/08/2012 04:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hi all .
nice flare eh? if that was fully on the disc i dare say it would have reached x.
that region has been stable for the last 2 days,i reckon its starting to decay..what d'ya think Ninn's
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2012 05:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


S1, S2 (and so on) storms are solar radiation storms
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

the Physical measure is located to the right of the storm size
:)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks Nin - but how to transfer that measure into protons/cm3??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266


I mean at what protons/cm3 rate should we be alarmed about a proton storm?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266


S4 is Severe
S5 is Extreme
both are alarming levels
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
to the right of the storm size it tells what the common effects are for each storm level
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks Nin! :-) :hf::hf:
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2012 05:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


S1, S2 (and so on) storms are solar radiation storms
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

the Physical measure is located to the right of the storm size
:)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks Nin - but how to transfer that measure into protons/cm3??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266


I mean at what protons/cm3 rate should we be alarmed about a proton storm?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266

I think you are getting plasma density and proton flux mixed up. I don't believe proton flux/radiation storms are generally measured in r^2N/cm^3, that is usually used for plasma density.

Plasma density is a measure of how dense solar wind is, or a CME. The higher the r^2N/cm^3 plasma density count, the denser the solar wind or CME is, and the more impact will be felt/geomagnetic storming can occur.

I know next to nothing about solar radiation storms (S1, S2, etc.) but NiN linked you to plenty to understand that side of things (not related to plasma density as far as I know, and generally won't be measured in cm3).
 Quoting: madajs


Thanks! :-) :hf:
madajs

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10/08/2012 05:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Potsdam recording Kp 6- with only 3 of 13 observatories reported in yet. Looks like that G1 warning was legit. In the next 30-60 minutes as the rest of the observatories report in that 6- should go down, but should stay at least in the 5 neighbourhood. [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de]

Too bad can't get my hands on any density readings right now. Anyways the storm continues!

Update: Kp 5+ with 10 of 13 observatories reported

Last Edited by madajs on 10/08/2012 05:17 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Spittin'Cesium

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10/08/2012 05:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GOES Magnetometer says [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Like I said before I have minimal access to data at the moment - Are we due another arrival or are we still reverberating from the CME earlier?

?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/08/2012 05:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another little bit from 1585 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
NiNzrez
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10/08/2012 05:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hi all .
nice flare eh? if that was fully on the disc i dare say it would have reached x.
that region has been stable for the last 2 days,i reckon its starting to decay..what d'ya think Ninn's
 Quoting: optimum judgment


hard to tell just yet
but for sure keeping a close eye on this one :)
Marketselloff
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10/08/2012 06:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Very active aurora right now. Let's see how far south it will dip into the states tonight.

[link to solarham.net]
amywood71605

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10/08/2012 06:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Very active aurora right now. Let's see how far south it will dip into the states tonight.

[link to solarham.net]
 Quoting: Marketselloff 25205657


I live in Northern Vermont, right on the border actually. i've seen the aurora once - it was an amazing experience! Hope to again.
"Live each day like it's your last, love like you've never been hurt, and dance like no one is watching."

GO PATS!!
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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10/08/2012 06:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Very active aurora right now. Let's see how far south it will dip into the states tonight.

[link to solarham.net]
 Quoting: Marketselloff 25205657


I live in Northern Vermont, right on the border actually. i've seen the aurora once - it was an amazing experience! Hope to again.
 Quoting: amywood71605


I'm in Northern California. We probably need atleast a G4 storm or a G5 for here lol
shadasonic

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10/08/2012 06:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
anybody else notice that the last few CMEs were all caused by filaments (including the one we just had)?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25170768


I've read your posts on the filament pick up of late and I'm very interested in these exfoliated plasma bombs we've been getting. They have been quite the catalyst of late,good eye big G!
One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If weve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. Were no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. Its simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that weve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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10/08/2012 06:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE Data showing Bz is very much South - More incoming!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Yeah shes picking up,got another CH and apparently some nice active regions inbound.
One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If weve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. Were no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. Its simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that weve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. Carl Sagan
Marketselloff
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10/08/2012 07:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2012 07:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another C-flare. A C2.2- most likely from the east limb somewhere.
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2012 07:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another C-flare. A C2.2- most likely from the east limb somewhere.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


N and/or S ..... wink
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2012 07:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another C-flare. A C2.2- most likely from the east limb somewhere.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


N and/or S ..... wink
 Quoting: TS66


My guess is SE, but I usually let Solarsoft call these limbshots, hehe.

EVE:
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
shadasonic

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10/08/2012 07:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]

In 2 days we should have a good look at this region,nice to have some action
One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If weve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. Were no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. Its simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that weve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2012 08:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I believe this is new

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 807
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 08 2344 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 806
Valid From: 2012 Oct 08 1800 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Oct 09 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persitence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2012 08:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another C-flare. A C2.2- most likely from the east limb somewhere.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


N and/or S ..... wink
 Quoting: TS66


My guess is SE, but I usually let Solarsoft call these limbshots, hehe.

EVE:
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


and solar soft says .... You are correct !!!

[link to www.lmsal.com]
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2012 08:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]

In 2 days we should have a good look at this region,nice to have some action
 Quoting: shadasonic


Well I certainly feel better about the possibilities now that I am home hf
shadasonic

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10/08/2012 08:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]

In 2 days we should have a good look at this region,nice to have some action
 Quoting: shadasonic


Well I certainly feel better about the possibilities now that I am home hf
 Quoting: TS66


I left for texas and new mexico 10 days ago, right after the filament liftoff and everything was so uncertain, not a good feeling at all,good to be home and grounded for events. I hope you guys had a good weekend TS!
One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If weve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. Were no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. Its simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that weve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. Carl Sagan
mtn_mang

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10/08/2012 08:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
continuing to creep up...

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


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