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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
El Quisqueyano

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10/08/2012 10:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


wtf

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Its coming around the bend good buddy,this looks like an impressive CME from that M. I've been looking for that area but solarsoft hasn't updated in 3 days
 Quoting: shadasonic


hf
[link to skreened.com]

The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers! And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee!" Ezekiel 25:17

"Worst come to worst, my PEOPLES come first" Dilated Peoples
NiNzrez (OP)

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10/08/2012 10:43 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Want to ask you experts about proton density... how many protons/cm3 are we talking for a proton storm? How many protons /cm3 for a S1, S2 and so on? Cannot seem to find that info online....
 Quoting: vivaveritas 3017266


S1, S2 (and so on) storms are solar radiation storms
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

the Physical measure is located to the right of the storm size
:)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks Nin - but how to transfer that measure into protons/cm3??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266


well for instance on the scale list, we see a S3 storm is reached with 10>3
Flux level of >= 10 MeV particles (ions)*


so we look over at the proton monitor here
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
on the proton monitor we can see the level reached with the reading sizes on the left
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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10/08/2012 10:46 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Want to ask you experts about proton density... how many protons/cm3 are we talking for a proton storm? How many protons /cm3 for a S1, S2 and so on? Cannot seem to find that info online....
 Quoting: vivaveritas 3017266


S1, S2 (and so on) storms are solar radiation storms
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

the Physical measure is located to the right of the storm size
:)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks Nin - but how to transfer that measure into protons/cm3??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266


I mean at what protons/cm3 rate should we be alarmed about a proton storm?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266


S4 is Severe
S5 is Extreme
both are alarming levels
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
to the right of the storm size it tells what the common effects are for each storm level
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
mtn_mang

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10/08/2012 11:12 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
so the source of last night's M-flare was the unnamed region yet to rotate into view? Does anybody know if this region has been intensifying or subsiding lately?

And good morning, Solar Family! :D
NiNzrez (OP)

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10/08/2012 11:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
so the source of last night's M-flare was the unnamed region yet to rotate into view? Does anybody know if this region has been intensifying or subsiding lately?

And good morning, Solar Family! :D
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Good Morning!
yup thats where it came from :)
i have been watching the backside regions and this one looks to have remained around the same size
(region is in the top right section)
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
mtn_mang

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10/08/2012 11:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks, NiN! hf

I suppose it would have to be a pretty potent region for the Goes to pick it up already, may provide an interesting week of studying for us.
mtn_mang

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10/08/2012 11:52 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
whoa, did u guys see this?

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
NiNzrez (OP)

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10/08/2012 12:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
whoa, did u guys see this?

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: mtn_mang


nice sized CME produced with this mornings M flare
not earth directed
the region that produced this will be Earth facing in the next few days
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2012 12:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
whoa, did u guys see this?

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: mtn_mang


nice sized CME produced with this mornings M flare
not earth directed
the region that produced this will be Earth facing in the next few days
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks Nin hf
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2012 12:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
On the STEREO B EUVI movie it looks like a large region involving both hemispheres are affected by this event. Possibly more than one event, as the CME may have come from the southern hemisphere hours later. It's difficult to analyze as we have limited views of the activity far-side.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

SDO Composite image of M-flare:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

What appears to be another CME in the south (3 hours later):

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

explosionahhhabomb
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2012 02:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
On the STEREO B EUVI movie it looks like a large region involving both hemispheres are affected by this event. Possibly more than one event, as the CME may have come from the southern hemisphere hours later. It's difficult to analyze as we have limited views of the activity far-side.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

SDO Composite image of M-flare:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

What appears to be another CME in the south (3 hours later):

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

explosionahhhabomb
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


wow, the stereo behind is pretty impressive. The flare set off at least 2 different kind of events: the sunspot below flared and to the right there was another hyder flare which set off the CME (this is the reason why it is southward oriented). Interestingly, this flare looks just like the one we had yesterday, leaving a "scarr" on the sun...
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2012 02:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
anybody else notice that the last few CMEs were all caused by filaments (including the one we just had)?
Goofy for God
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10/08/2012 03:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SOLAR FLARE: This morning, Oct. 8th at 1117 UT, a solar flare erupted on the northeastern edge of the sun's disk. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
madajs

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10/08/2012 03:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like that CME gave us some good action last night! Potsdam recorded a high of Kp 7- [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de] , and even NOAA estimated two 6's.

Might be a little more fun on the way, Bz just plummeted past -15 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] and a G1 warning was issued:

=====================

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 806
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 08 1756 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Oct 08 1800 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Oct 08 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

=======================

PS. It seems over at geoeffective enlil [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] they've seen their mistake and put back up the 10-5 model run that shows the CME that just hit. Looks like the erasure was a glitch

Last Edited by madajs on 10/08/2012 03:20 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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10/08/2012 03:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SOLAR FLARE: This morning, Oct. 8th at 1117 UT, a solar flare erupted on the northeastern edge of the sun's disk. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


The explosion heralds the arrival of a farside active region, which will turn toward Earth later this week.
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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10/08/2012 03:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SOLAR FLARE: This morning, Oct. 8th at 1117 UT, a solar flare erupted on the northeastern edge of the sun's disk. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


The explosion heralds the arrival of a farside active region, which will turn toward Earth later this week.
 Quoting: Goofy for God


[link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]

hiding

Big one at end for today
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Spittin'Cesium

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10/08/2012 03:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello all : )

Just popping by to say whoa!

Random.

I'm not on my Cpu. so I am just a observer tonight : ?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2012 03:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SDO Composite of action near the Southeast limb-
:SE-erupt:
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2012 03:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SDO Composite of action near the Southeast limb-
:SE-erupt:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


RED ..RUNING...ANUNAKI!!!!
madajs

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10/08/2012 03:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Want to ask you experts about proton density... how many protons/cm3 are we talking for a proton storm? How many protons /cm3 for a S1, S2 and so on? Cannot seem to find that info online....
 Quoting: vivaveritas 3017266


S1, S2 (and so on) storms are solar radiation storms
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

the Physical measure is located to the right of the storm size
:)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks Nin - but how to transfer that measure into protons/cm3??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266


I mean at what protons/cm3 rate should we be alarmed about a proton storm?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266

I think you are getting plasma density and proton flux mixed up. I don't believe proton flux/radiation storms are generally measured in r2N/cm3, that is usually used for plasma density.

Plasma density is a measure of how dense solar wind is, or a CME. The higher the r2N/cm3 plasma density count, the denser the solar wind or CME is, and the more impact will be felt/geomagnetic storming can occur.

I know next to nothing about solar radiation storms (S1, S2, etc.) but NiN linked you to plenty to understand that side of things (not related to plasma density as far as I know, and generally won't be measured in cm3).

Last Edited by madajs on 10/09/2012 03:47 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Spittin'Cesium

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10/08/2012 03:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE Data showing Bz is very much South - More incoming!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/08/2012 04:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
DRap showing absorption [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] if only a very little.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
madajs

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10/08/2012 04:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE Data showing Bz is very much South - More incoming!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium

Ya but I can't find any density anywhere, so the G1 warning may not fulfill itself, hmm

"Caution: ACE Maneuver" <-- I take this to mean the satellite is in maneuvers at the moment and it's readings might not be particularly accurate for the moment? [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

PS. Almost reached 40,000 posts in this thread :)

Last Edited by madajs on 10/08/2012 04:19 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Spittin'Cesium

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10/08/2012 04:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE Data showing Bz is very much South - More incoming!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium

Ya but I can't find any density anywhere, so the G1 warning may not fulfill itself, hmm
 Quoting: madajs


Yes,that is a bit of a problem : )

An ongoing one with ACE - It could be due to the IMF also being very much South,which it is - CH Stream.

I'm flying blind here as I am not on my Cpu.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/08/2012 04:11 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE Data showing Bz is very much South - More incoming!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium

Ya but I can't find any density anywhere, so the G1 warning may not fulfill itself, hmm

"Caution: ACE Maneuver" <-- I take this to mean the satellite is in maneuvers at the moment and it's readings might not be particularly accurate for the moment? [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


Aye'..that should help explain it!
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
optimum judgment

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10/08/2012 04:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hi all .
nice flare eh? if that was fully on the disc i dare say it would have reached x.
that region has been stable for the last 2 days,i reckon its starting to decay..what d'ya think Ninn's
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2012 05:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


S1, S2 (and so on) storms are solar radiation storms
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

the Physical measure is located to the right of the storm size
:)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks Nin - but how to transfer that measure into protons/cm3??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266


I mean at what protons/cm3 rate should we be alarmed about a proton storm?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266


S4 is Severe
S5 is Extreme
both are alarming levels
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
to the right of the storm size it tells what the common effects are for each storm level
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks Nin! :-) :hf::hf:
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2012 05:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


S1, S2 (and so on) storms are solar radiation storms
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

the Physical measure is located to the right of the storm size
:)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks Nin - but how to transfer that measure into protons/cm3??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266


I mean at what protons/cm3 rate should we be alarmed about a proton storm?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3017266

I think you are getting plasma density and proton flux mixed up. I don't believe proton flux/radiation storms are generally measured in r^2N/cm^3, that is usually used for plasma density.

Plasma density is a measure of how dense solar wind is, or a CME. The higher the r^2N/cm^3 plasma density count, the denser the solar wind or CME is, and the more impact will be felt/geomagnetic storming can occur.

I know next to nothing about solar radiation storms (S1, S2, etc.) but NiN linked you to plenty to understand that side of things (not related to plasma density as far as I know, and generally won't be measured in cm3).
 Quoting: madajs


Thanks! :-) :hf:
madajs

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10/08/2012 05:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Potsdam recording Kp 6- with only 3 of 13 observatories reported in yet. Looks like that G1 warning was legit. In the next 30-60 minutes as the rest of the observatories report in that 6- should go down, but should stay at least in the 5 neighbourhood. [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de]

Too bad can't get my hands on any density readings right now. Anyways the storm continues!

Update: Kp 5+ with 10 of 13 observatories reported

Last Edited by madajs on 10/08/2012 05:17 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Spittin'Cesium

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10/08/2012 05:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GOES Magnetometer says [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Like I said before I have minimal access to data at the moment - Are we due another arrival or are we still reverberating from the CME earlier?

?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1