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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
NiNzrez (OP)

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10/13/2012 01:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm trying to figure out why NOAA has issued that K-4 Warning. I can't find any reason for it in my search for current data. Last night they issued a k-4 warning for a 5-hour period, but this new one is for a 14-hour period!? Does anyone know why? I'm stumped here.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA's own ENLIL model shows SW velocity projected to be declining now and density also low.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder's Magnetometer is only showing a K=2.4 and only 14nT:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO's solar wind data shows nothing major going on there:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Latest ACE Mag-SW data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

What has me puzzled is that we're usually seeing something on this thread before NOAA reluctantly posts their WARNINGs. This warning seems to be uncalled-for or at least a bit premature. Perhaps I missed something; if so please clue me in.

wtf
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


i would say its from the coronal hole winds
i kinda expected the winds from the earth facing coronal hole to arrive a bit earlier than SWPC reported on
(image of the coronal hole in question)
[link to spaceweather.com]

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed,
measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged between approximately 450 and
550 km/s. Prolonged periods of southward Bz (near -5 nT) coupled
with enhanced wind speed resulted in an isolated active period
between 12/0300 - 0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 October). A coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on days
2-3 (14-15 October) resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions with
a chance for active periods. On day 3, a slight chance exists for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit as Region
1589 rotates into a more geoeffective position.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
madajs

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10/13/2012 01:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Saw this coming:

=================
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 810
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 13 0502 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Oct 13 0515 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Oct 13 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
==================
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Hugh M Eye

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10/13/2012 01:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1615
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 13 0452 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 Oct 13 0450 UTC

Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

HAARP Fluxgate Magnetometer:

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

Kiruna Observatory Magnetometer, Sweden:

[link to www.irf.se]

K-index at Storm level (K=5) in Norway:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

Boulder Magnetometer:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I still don't see anything definitive in the ACE or SOHO solar wind data to account for this unsettling of the magnetosphere.

ACE SW speed decreasing, no change in Bz or density:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO showing a slight increase in density, but not much:
[link to umtof.umd.edu]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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10/13/2012 01:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Saw this coming:

=================
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 810
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 13 0502 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Oct 13 0515 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Oct 13 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
==================
 Quoting: madajs


So did I,haha. I checked that damn chart 5 times before typing my post. You're pretty quick on the draw there.

In 6 hours we go from K=1 to K=5 (maybe) and here's the data:

ACE 6-hr. Mag-field data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE 6-hr. SW data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

What in these charts is causing a disturbance?
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
shadasonic
viracocha says live well

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10/13/2012 01:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1615
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 13 0452 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 Oct 13 0450 UTC

Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

HAARP Fluxgate Magnetometer:

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

Kiruna Observatory Magnetometer, Sweden:

[link to www.irf.se]

K-index at Storm level (K=5) in Norway:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

Boulder Magnetometer:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I still don't see anything definitive in the ACE or SOHO solar wind data to account for this unsettling of the magnetosphere.

ACE SW speed decreasing, no change in Bz or density:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO showing a slight increase in density, but not much:
[link to umtof.umd.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


We've got a new CH energy that develops without wind or source its, magic CH energy, just joking but to come in this early without a moderate wind spike is rare, or hidden info. I can feel energy and have for a solid 2 weeks with only moderate anomalies. Something isn't exactly right, not saying major issue, just off!

The last , larger CH came in close to call. This changing X wiggler seemed below moderate along with wind totals. Now the sun given, is starting max,and is giving off more electrons for many reasons. Supersymmetry may play a part in some of this, and would explain increased energy without an immediate chart response. Protons are nothing to look at and this is weird just for the fact that the last several CHs had immediate proton absorption , these are showing low proton flux. The electron shows are what Hugh calls foreshock energy, and I believe he's right. We're viewing a new star thats giving us a new energy pattern. Just my two cents.

Last Edited by sonic tonic on 10/13/2012 01:32 AM
It is understanding that transforms us, not merely the desire for change, and until a man obtains a thorough understanding of the nature of evil and so becomes equipped to respond wisely to its challenges, he will necessarily be detrimentally affected by it.
shadasonic
viracocha says live well

User ID: 15732022
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10/13/2012 01:55 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

We had decent energy coming in for a period there
It is understanding that transforms us, not merely the desire for change, and until a man obtains a thorough understanding of the nature of evil and so becomes equipped to respond wisely to its challenges, he will necessarily be detrimentally affected by it.
Spittin'Cesium

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10/13/2012 03:06 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello allsun

Something is afoot as noted above ^ ^ and evident here [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] from the Electron Fraggle I'd say CH Stream or the end of the last one.

I've just got online and have'nt been in the Sol Game for a couple so I need to go catch up.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/13/2012 03:13 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The ACE Data is showing Bz on the floor [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] which should be the overall IMF [link to mms.rice.edu] .

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 10/13/2012 03:38 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
madajs

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10/13/2012 03:13 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Yep CH539 has said hello :)
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Spittin'Cesium

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10/13/2012 03:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The face the Sun is pulling at the moment kind of looks like its' saying 'Sorry' [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] after being told off.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/13/2012 03:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Yep CH539 has said hello :)
 Quoting: madajs


That'll be Her!

'A recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH539) was in an Earth facing position on October 9-11. A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH541) could become Earth facing on October 13' [link to www.solen.info] about on time also,though perhaps a little early. [link to www.solen.info]

Good Day to you Madajs : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/13/2012 03:20 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Has it yet been said the 1589 is Beta-Gamma-Delta?
[link to www.solen.info]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/13/2012 03:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Side note - I was watching a random BBC Wildlife Program earlier and during a piece about Homing Pigeons(of all things)they very quickly quipped 'The Homing Pigeons are having problems returning due to Navigational issues believed to be related to the Sun and it's behaviour - Its' currently doing something that has'nt been seen for over 1000 Years'

They left it at that leaving me mouth agape and scratching my noggin thinking 'Wtf,Ffs..eh!?'.

Just what action is this that they very quickly glossed over whilst discussing bloody Homing Pigeons that has'nt occurred in the last One Thousand Years!?

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 10/13/2012 03:33 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/13/2012 03:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunspot and Solar Activity relationships are looking tenuous at the moment hey?
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

There is a BGD Region on the disc - Does Sol know?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/13/2012 03:45 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Last EVE Rotation [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

I was going to say something,but then I remembered the first rule.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/13/2012 03:57 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The last 300 Updates on the Magnetosphere Sim. is'nt showing too much but the Magnetopause shows that from around 02:00am This Morning it has been squished to within Geo-synchronous orbit [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] and stays there until the Sim. ends at around 06:50am.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/13/2012 04:10 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking at the H alpha movies Learmonth is showing 1586 throwing out some crazy shapes and 1590 on the South-East is showing a eruption of some kind [link to halpha.nso.edu] that occurred around 3:00am UT.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 10/13/2012 04:10 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/13/2012 04:17 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The reason why SOHO sucks so bad is partly illustrated by this [link to soho.nascom.nasa.gov] .

All those unnumbered Sunspots.

Useless Donut Dunkin' Fools.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/13/2012 04:30 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There is a very small area just to the North-East of 1589 that looks to me to be growing into a little Sunspot of its' own,I had noticed it on H alpha doing something special so thought I'd check out it's evolution(or creation if you live in Utah) [link to jsoc.stanford.edu] and indeed it does appear to be morphing.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/13/2012 04:35 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] should be an index of 5 at least.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
madajs

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10/13/2012 05:01 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
go CH go!

==============
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 214
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 13 0831 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Oct 13 0830 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Oct 13 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
==============
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Spittin'Cesium

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10/13/2012 05:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
go CH go!

==============
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 214
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 13 0831 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Oct 13 0830 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Oct 13 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
==============
 Quoting: madajs


They must be reading Glp : )

Perfect timing Madajs!
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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10/13/2012 07:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
New space weather warning

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 214
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 13 0831 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Oct 13 0830 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Oct 13 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Wing Kp

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
miabelieves

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10/13/2012 07:21 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to salmon.nict.go.jp]

love watching
Supporter of NIN's Solar Watch Thread
Tiny Trink

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10/13/2012 07:36 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Everyone,

Excellent posts last night everyone.

News has a lot of info today. Enjoy!

[link to www.youtube.com]


Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
madajs

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10/13/2012 08:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Kp 6- with 11 of 13 observatories reported

[link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de]

And the period before that was also Kp 6-

This CH did some work

Last Edited by madajs on 10/13/2012 08:32 AM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
DoomneT

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10/13/2012 08:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
2012 Oct 13 0918 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Begin: Oct 09 1015 UTC Yesterday Max 2MeV Flux: 11400 pfu

spaceweather
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Anonymous Coward
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10/13/2012 08:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wing-Kp (NOAA) is showing a rise

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Space weather is showing a decline ...

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 811
Valid From: 2012 Oct 13 0515 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Oct 13 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


I'll side with the Wing data.


Good morning all hf
El Quisqueyano
Chief Caonabo

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10/13/2012 09:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know exactly what is going on but this the third possible 6+ signal seen today;

Significant earthquake precursor signal detected on 10/13/12 at 1322utc/0922est. Possible 6+.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in East of France from somewhere out in the Northern, Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Alaska, Canada and Chile.


All who live anywhere in the vicinity of this line trajectory should be wary next 5 hours. Have escape plan ready and seek open terrain in the event of felt tremor. Secure most of your heavy objects and belongings around your home.


Namaste,

Hopefully I am wrong. Or it hits an unpopulated area.
Japan is also a likely target. Be wary.
[link to skreened.com]

The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers! And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee!" Ezekiel 25:17

"Worst come to worst, my PEOPLES come first" Dilated Peoples
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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10/13/2012 10:01 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like may be in for a week of something big
[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]

hiding
1 John 4:18
There is no fear in love; but perfect love casts out fear, because fear involves torment

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