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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
whiteangel

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11/13/2012 12:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
MEH
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 12:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: whiteangel


This one may be from 1614 in the North-East [link to halpha.nso.edu] though not definite yet.

You good Angel?

: )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/13/2012 12:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
MEH
 Quoting: whiteangel


That tends to happen within 1 - 3 Minutes after being posted on Glp,Lmao.

Seriously.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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11/13/2012 12:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Doing good...just didn't finish sentence above on the C1.8

1614, hmmm
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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11/13/2012 12:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
MEH
 Quoting: whiteangel


That tends to happen within 1 - 3 Minutes after being posted on Glp,Lmao.

Seriously.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I am going to have to stop that, just wanted others to see possibilities without saying "Hey look we have a climber" rofl
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 12:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Both 1613 and 1614 are now classified Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration according to Solen [link to www.solen.info] and 1610 Beta-Gamma.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 27375240
Canada
11/13/2012 12:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
you guys know anything about this

Thread: near earth object really close mabe too closeNov !4 2012
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 12:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
MEH
 Quoting: whiteangel


That tends to happen within 1 - 3 Minutes after being posted on Glp,Lmao.

Seriously.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I am going to have to stop that, just wanted others to see possibilities without saying "Hey look we have a climber" rofl
 Quoting: whiteangel


Yours is the only acceptable alert,simply post the link so all eyes are on : )

We just have to accept the Effect me thinks : )

Lol.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
11/13/2012 01:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
MEH
 Quoting: whiteangel


That tends to happen within 1 - 3 Minutes after being posted on Glp,Lmao.

Seriously.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I am going to have to stop that, just wanted others to see possibilities without saying "Hey look we have a climber" rofl
 Quoting: whiteangel


Yours is the only acceptable alert,simply post the link so all eyes are on : )

We just have to accept the Effect me thinks : )

Lol.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Good and still the glp effect is really crazy silly.

Two BGD is crazy. We need some action that is mid-range to pump up the mag.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 24287942
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11/13/2012 01:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CMEs detected from this morning's M6 and M2.5 flares are not Earth-directed. The one from the M6 did have a shock front clocked by CACTus at more than 2000 km/s. It was not very large however.

CACTus CME Details (M6 flare):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Here's the SDO close-up movie of the M2.5:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

CACTus CME Details (M2.5):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

explosionshockedexplosion
whiteangel

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11/13/2012 01:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27375240


[link to www.spaceweather.com]
Scroll down the page. It isn't all that close.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 01:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solen are giving a higher probability of M and X Class Flares than they are for CME's!

CME's - 20% to 60%

M/X Class - 60% to 100% [link to www.solen.info]

rad
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 01:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CMEs detected from this morning's M6 and M2.5 flares are not Earth-directed. The one from the M6 did have a shock front clocked by CACTus at more than 2000 km/s. It was not very large however.

CACTus CME Details (M6 flare):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Here's the SDO close-up movie of the M2.5:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

CACTus CME Details (M2.5):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

explosionshockedexplosion
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hello Hugh,the 4th(I think it's the 4th)CME on C2 from the South-West I find very cool [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] I think you mentioned this One the other Day from the Stereo data - I'm going to try and find it in the Cactus Diagnostics now.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

User ID: 15732022
United States
11/13/2012 01:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solen are giving a higher probability of M and X Class Flares than they are for CME's!

CME's - 20% to 60%

M/X Class - 60% to 100% [link to www.solen.info]

rad
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Love that one SC,reminds me of my brother.lol

The sun just wants us to have a photonic shower with no destruction
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

User ID: 15732022
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11/13/2012 01:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CMEs detected from this morning's M6 and M2.5 flares are not Earth-directed. The one from the M6 did have a shock front clocked by CACTus at more than 2000 km/s. It was not very large however.

CACTus CME Details (M6 flare):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Here's the SDO close-up movie of the M2.5:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

CACTus CME Details (M2.5):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

explosionshockedexplosion
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I like cactus never used it before,you got info coming out your ears,your favorites must be a book.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 01:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CMEs detected from this morning's M6 and M2.5 flares are not Earth-directed. The one from the M6 did have a shock front clocked by CACTus at more than 2000 km/s. It was not very large however.

CACTus CME Details (M6 flare):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Here's the SDO close-up movie of the M2.5:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

CACTus CME Details (M2.5):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

explosionshockedexplosion
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hello Hugh,the 4th(I think it's the 4th)CME on C2 from the South-West I find very cool [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] I think you mentioned this One the other Day from the Stereo data - I'm going to try and find it in the Cactus Diagnostics now.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Here be the filthy beast of a CME [link to www.sidc.oma.be] pretty incredible.

Hello Shada : )

.

Edit:This One also [link to www.sidc.oma.be] and [link to www.sidc.oma.be] : )

.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/13/2012 01:27 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 01:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Remember,Sol hasn't enjoyed going below the B5(ish)level [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] it has dropped below it just - Lets see if she fires up another.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 26570785
United States
11/13/2012 01:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2027
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 13 1533 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 13 1533 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 13 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

spock
 Quoting: TS66


Hello 66,you good this Evening!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Doing very well thanks. Have a couple upholstery projects I'm working, etc. Popping in out to keep up on ever increasing sol potential. And you ?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 26570785
United States
11/13/2012 01:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1619
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 13 1803 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 13 1800 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

I waiting for an expected 5 alert, it's probably only a matter of time ....

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 01:37 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2027
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 13 1533 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 13 1533 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 13 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

spock
 Quoting: TS66


Hello 66,you good this Evening!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Doing very well thanks. Have a couple upholstery projects I'm working, etc. Popping in out to keep up on ever increasing sol potential. And you ?
 Quoting: TS66


Not too bad thank you - I'm on my Second Legs as I have been up all Night,taking Major Thom for a nice long walkies through the Woods earlier cleared my mood up a little - Prior to that I was just about ready to see if my height/mass/pavement calculations were correctchuckle

You do a lot of upholstering hey 66!?

: )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 01:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm thinking it is about time for 1614 to shows us a little something - 1613 and 1614 are now BGD and 1610 BG,1614 is looking a little primed on H alpha [link to halpha.nso.edu] I see a couple sparks at least anyway.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 01:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Check it out - Louisiana State Police Confirm a Small Unmanned Bunker Exploded -


[link to www.youtube.com]

Or is that old Gnewz already!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
madajs

User ID: 24791599
Canada
11/13/2012 01:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's a new CME showing on the cygnet enlil model, I assume to be associated with yesterdays AR1613 flaring. [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Going to miss Earth by the looks of it, which I think most of us expected considering how far east AR1613 is.

Looks like other than the initial turbulence during the sudden impulse, Bz has been very benign. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 24287942
United States
11/13/2012 02:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Sun is freckled with lots of spots today and the SS# is now 188 (sorta what you'd expect from a Solar Maximum, eh?).
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1610's North magnetic field (blue/green) is gaining strength while the trailing South MF is weakening. I'm not sure what that means in relation to flare potential, it's just an observation. Here's a comparison with yesterday-

AR1610-Nov. 13, 2012-

:1610mag11/13:

AR1610-Nov. 12, 2012

:1610-11/12mag:

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 11/13/2012 02:01 PM
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 02:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Sun is freckled with lots of spots today and the SS# is now 188 (sorta what you'd expect from a Solar Maximum, eh?).
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1610's North magnetic field (blue/green) is gaining strength while the trailing South MF is weakening. I'm not sure what that means in relation to flare potential, it's just an observation. Here's a comparison with yesterday-

AR1610-Nov. 13, 2012-

:1610mag11/13:

AR1610-Nov. 12, 2012

:1610-11/12mag:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Remember,1610 has a very small region just above it 1609 which could potentially add extra juice into the mix via sympathetic Magnetic Connection/Arcing - so although 1610's Beta-Gammaness may be waning slightly it is still very close to One other region(though very small)as well as one leading it(1608 also very small) - This could provide juice for either of the 2/3 regions,Imo.

Edit:Example [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/13/2012 02:54 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 02:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's a new CME showing on the cygnet enlil model, I assume to be associated with yesterdays AR1613 flaring. [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Going to miss Earth by the looks of it, which I think most of us expected considering how far east AR1613 is.

Looks like other than the initial turbulence during the sudden impulse, Bz has been very benign. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


Check out the By component on the ACE data here [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] Sky high : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 02:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Sun is freckled with lots of spots today and the SS# is now 188 (sorta what you'd expect from a Solar Maximum, eh?).
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1610's North magnetic field (blue/green) is gaining strength while the trailing South MF is weakening. I'm not sure what that means in relation to flare potential, it's just an observation. Here's a comparison with yesterday-

AR1610-Nov. 13, 2012-

:1610mag11/13:

AR1610-Nov. 12, 2012

:1610-11/12mag:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hmmm?

The leading Spot appears to have what the trailing Spot lost building up infront of it,I wouldn't write this One of just yet : )

.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
11/13/2012 02:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Check it out - Louisiana State Police Confirm a Small Unmanned Bunker Exploded -


[link to www.youtube.com]

Or is that old Gnewz already!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


[link to www.ksla.com]
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
11/13/2012 02:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.ips.gov.au]
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 02:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: whiteangel


Full strength just off-shore Northern Peru.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1

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