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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
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11/13/2012 12:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2027
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 13 1533 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 13 1533 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 13 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

spock
 Quoting: TS66


Hello 66,you good this Evening!?

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/13/2012 12:43 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
whiteangel

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11/13/2012 12:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
MEH
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Spittin'Cesium

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11/13/2012 12:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: whiteangel


This one may be from 1614 in the North-East [link to halpha.nso.edu] though not definite yet.

You good Angel?

: )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/13/2012 12:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
MEH
 Quoting: whiteangel


That tends to happen within 1 - 3 Minutes after being posted on Glp,Lmao.

Seriously.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
whiteangel

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11/13/2012 12:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Doing good...just didn't finish sentence above on the C1.8

1614, hmmm
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
whiteangel

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11/13/2012 12:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
MEH
 Quoting: whiteangel


That tends to happen within 1 - 3 Minutes after being posted on Glp,Lmao.

Seriously.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I am going to have to stop that, just wanted others to see possibilities without saying "Hey look we have a climber" rofl
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Spittin'Cesium

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11/13/2012 12:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Both 1613 and 1614 are now classified Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration according to Solen [link to www.solen.info] and 1610 Beta-Gamma.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 27375240
Canada
11/13/2012 12:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
you guys know anything about this

Thread: near earth object really close mabe too closeNov !4 2012
Spittin'Cesium

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11/13/2012 12:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
MEH
 Quoting: whiteangel


That tends to happen within 1 - 3 Minutes after being posted on Glp,Lmao.

Seriously.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I am going to have to stop that, just wanted others to see possibilities without saying "Hey look we have a climber" rofl
 Quoting: whiteangel


Yours is the only acceptable alert,simply post the link so all eyes are on : )

We just have to accept the Effect me thinks : )

Lol.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
11/13/2012 01:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
MEH
 Quoting: whiteangel


That tends to happen within 1 - 3 Minutes after being posted on Glp,Lmao.

Seriously.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I am going to have to stop that, just wanted others to see possibilities without saying "Hey look we have a climber" rofl
 Quoting: whiteangel


Yours is the only acceptable alert,simply post the link so all eyes are on : )

We just have to accept the Effect me thinks : )

Lol.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Good and still the glp effect is really crazy silly.

Two BGD is crazy. We need some action that is mid-range to pump up the mag.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Hugh M Eye

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11/13/2012 01:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CMEs detected from this morning's M6 and M2.5 flares are not Earth-directed. The one from the M6 did have a shock front clocked by CACTus at more than 2000 km/s. It was not very large however.

CACTus CME Details (M6 flare):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Here's the SDO close-up movie of the M2.5:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

CACTus CME Details (M2.5):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

explosionshockedexplosion
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
whiteangel

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11/13/2012 01:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27375240


[link to www.spaceweather.com]
Scroll down the page. It isn't all that close.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
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11/13/2012 01:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solen are giving a higher probability of M and X Class Flares than they are for CME's!

CME's - 20% to 60%

M/X Class - 60% to 100% [link to www.solen.info]

rad
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 01:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CMEs detected from this morning's M6 and M2.5 flares are not Earth-directed. The one from the M6 did have a shock front clocked by CACTus at more than 2000 km/s. It was not very large however.

CACTus CME Details (M6 flare):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Here's the SDO close-up movie of the M2.5:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

CACTus CME Details (M2.5):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

explosionshockedexplosion
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hello Hugh,the 4th(I think it's the 4th)CME on C2 from the South-West I find very cool [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] I think you mentioned this One the other Day from the Stereo data - I'm going to try and find it in the Cactus Diagnostics now.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

User ID: 15732022
United States
11/13/2012 01:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solen are giving a higher probability of M and X Class Flares than they are for CME's!

CME's - 20% to 60%

M/X Class - 60% to 100% [link to www.solen.info]

rad
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Love that one SC,reminds me of my brother.lol

The sun just wants us to have a photonic shower with no destruction
It is understanding that transforms us, not merely the desire for change, and until a man obtains a thorough understanding of the nature of evil and so becomes equipped to respond wisely to its challenges, he will necessarily be detrimentally affected by it.
shadasonic

User ID: 15732022
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11/13/2012 01:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CMEs detected from this morning's M6 and M2.5 flares are not Earth-directed. The one from the M6 did have a shock front clocked by CACTus at more than 2000 km/s. It was not very large however.

CACTus CME Details (M6 flare):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Here's the SDO close-up movie of the M2.5:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

CACTus CME Details (M2.5):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

explosionshockedexplosion
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I like cactus never used it before,you got info coming out your ears,your favorites must be a book.
It is understanding that transforms us, not merely the desire for change, and until a man obtains a thorough understanding of the nature of evil and so becomes equipped to respond wisely to its challenges, he will necessarily be detrimentally affected by it.
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 01:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CMEs detected from this morning's M6 and M2.5 flares are not Earth-directed. The one from the M6 did have a shock front clocked by CACTus at more than 2000 km/s. It was not very large however.

CACTus CME Details (M6 flare):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Here's the SDO close-up movie of the M2.5:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

CACTus CME Details (M2.5):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

explosionshockedexplosion
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hello Hugh,the 4th(I think it's the 4th)CME on C2 from the South-West I find very cool [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] I think you mentioned this One the other Day from the Stereo data - I'm going to try and find it in the Cactus Diagnostics now.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Here be the filthy beast of a CME [link to www.sidc.oma.be] pretty incredible.

Hello Shada : )

.

Edit:This One also [link to www.sidc.oma.be] and [link to www.sidc.oma.be] : )

.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/13/2012 01:27 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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United Kingdom
11/13/2012 01:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Remember,Sol hasn't enjoyed going below the B5(ish)level [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] it has dropped below it just - Lets see if she fires up another.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 26570785
United States
11/13/2012 01:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2027
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 13 1533 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 13 1533 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 13 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

spock
 Quoting: TS66


Hello 66,you good this Evening!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Doing very well thanks. Have a couple upholstery projects I'm working, etc. Popping in out to keep up on ever increasing sol potential. And you ?
Anonymous Coward
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11/13/2012 01:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1619
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 13 1803 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 13 1800 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

I waiting for an expected 5 alert, it's probably only a matter of time ....

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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United Kingdom
11/13/2012 01:37 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2027
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 13 1533 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 13 1533 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 13 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

spock
 Quoting: TS66


Hello 66,you good this Evening!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Doing very well thanks. Have a couple upholstery projects I'm working, etc. Popping in out to keep up on ever increasing sol potential. And you ?
 Quoting: TS66


Not too bad thank you - I'm on my Second Legs as I have been up all Night,taking Major Thom for a nice long walkies through the Woods earlier cleared my mood up a little - Prior to that I was just about ready to see if my height/mass/pavement calculations were correctchuckle

You do a lot of upholstering hey 66!?

: )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/13/2012 01:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm thinking it is about time for 1614 to shows us a little something - 1613 and 1614 are now BGD and 1610 BG,1614 is looking a little primed on H alpha [link to halpha.nso.edu] I see a couple sparks at least anyway.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 01:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Check it out - Louisiana State Police Confirm a Small Unmanned Bunker Exploded -


[link to www.youtube.com]

Or is that old Gnewz already!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
madajs

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11/13/2012 01:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's a new CME showing on the cygnet enlil model, I assume to be associated with yesterdays AR1613 flaring. [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Going to miss Earth by the looks of it, which I think most of us expected considering how far east AR1613 is.

Looks like other than the initial turbulence during the sudden impulse, Bz has been very benign. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Hugh M Eye

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11/13/2012 02:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Sun is freckled with lots of spots today and the SS# is now 188 (sorta what you'd expect from a Solar Maximum, eh?).
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1610's North magnetic field (blue/green) is gaining strength while the trailing South MF is weakening. I'm not sure what that means in relation to flare potential, it's just an observation. Here's a comparison with yesterday-

AR1610-Nov. 13, 2012-

:1610mag11/13:

AR1610-Nov. 12, 2012

:1610-11/12mag:

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 11/13/2012 02:01 PM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 02:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Sun is freckled with lots of spots today and the SS# is now 188 (sorta what you'd expect from a Solar Maximum, eh?).
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1610's North magnetic field (blue/green) is gaining strength while the trailing South MF is weakening. I'm not sure what that means in relation to flare potential, it's just an observation. Here's a comparison with yesterday-

AR1610-Nov. 13, 2012-

:1610mag11/13:

AR1610-Nov. 12, 2012

:1610-11/12mag:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Remember,1610 has a very small region just above it 1609 which could potentially add extra juice into the mix via sympathetic Magnetic Connection/Arcing - so although 1610's Beta-Gammaness may be waning slightly it is still very close to One other region(though very small)as well as one leading it(1608 also very small) - This could provide juice for either of the 2/3 regions,Imo.

Edit:Example [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/13/2012 02:54 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 02:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's a new CME showing on the cygnet enlil model, I assume to be associated with yesterdays AR1613 flaring. [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Going to miss Earth by the looks of it, which I think most of us expected considering how far east AR1613 is.

Looks like other than the initial turbulence during the sudden impulse, Bz has been very benign. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


Check out the By component on the ACE data here [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] Sky high : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/13/2012 02:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Sun is freckled with lots of spots today and the SS# is now 188 (sorta what you'd expect from a Solar Maximum, eh?).
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1610's North magnetic field (blue/green) is gaining strength while the trailing South MF is weakening. I'm not sure what that means in relation to flare potential, it's just an observation. Here's a comparison with yesterday-

AR1610-Nov. 13, 2012-

:1610mag11/13:

AR1610-Nov. 12, 2012

:1610-11/12mag:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hmmm?

The leading Spot appears to have what the trailing Spot lost building up infront of it,I wouldn't write this One of just yet : )

.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
11/13/2012 02:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Check it out - Louisiana State Police Confirm a Small Unmanned Bunker Exploded -


[link to www.youtube.com]

Or is that old Gnewz already!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


[link to www.ksla.com]
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
11/13/2012 02:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.ips.gov.au]
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

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