SOLAR WATCH * 255 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

According to Solen :

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 11-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

[link to www.solen.info]

CH545 ??

Another round of incoming? NOAA giving an advance (!) warning of a K6???



Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 215
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 14 0243 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 15 0300 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 15 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I'm not seeing an incoming CME on the models (it's probably all about me sorry), where are you seeing this Cesium ?

I don't get it. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

All I am aware of is that near Earth asteroid.

Hey, thanks guys and gals! I'm sorry I just couldn't get past that top graph. Did anyone notice that the SS Number has reached a peak for the YEAR 2012?

Here's the graph:

[link to www.solen.info]

Well that at least encouraging

[link to www.solarham.net]

Only thing I could find was solar wind from a negative then directly followed by a pos. CH?

Wow, I think the chimps at NOAA made a boo-boo, LOL. Look at that Issue Time....haha, almost 24 hours ago. I thought maybe I missed something but it appears to be a glitch unless NOAA now has psychics in Boulder.

Guess I'll wait and see WTH they are talking about in the AM .

Goodnight all ....

Nice catch Hugh.

Woot Woot, maybe it'll get down far enough for me to see it.. I'm along the Columbia river on the Oregon side.. Hoping...

Goodnight, Dearest Sol-sister, get some rest as the AM shift needs your insight.

Boom the SS Number which just gave us our 2012 peak of 188 has fallen to 108 as the active regions are shrinking and decaying now. We have one new AR in the NE- AR1616. ARs 1610 & 1611 are still classified Beta-Gamma even though 1613 has been the most active (by far) and 1614 is has the largest x-ray signature on EVE.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Latest HMI Intensitygram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 320 Issued at 0030Z on 15 Nov 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1610 S23W36 262 0210 Eai 11 14 Beta-Gamma
1611 N13W14 239 0160 Dso 08 10 Beta-Gamma
1612 N08W05 230 0050 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1613 S23E18 207 0120 Dso 06 08 Beta
1614 N16E31 194 0240 Dai 07 13 Beta
1615 N09E19 206 0080 Dso 06 08 Beta
1616 N21E61 164 0070 Dro 04 02 Beta

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I interpret Solen's "CME effects" warning to apply to the CME impact that occurred earlier today, not a new CME.

Unrelated, I see some people are trying to ascertain the source of the new earth facing CME (won't be due for arrival for days) [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I find it rather hard to find a source considering the best tools for geoeffective CMEs are the Stereo satellites, and their public offerings are plagued by progressively worse data gaps.... as we all well know :(

Last Edited by madajs on 11/14/2012 09:46 PM

I agree.

not on the post remaking but most of what the old one contained.lol

Last Edited by shadasonic on 11/14/2012 09:45 PM

wow look at this one

screen shot just now [link to s11.postimage.org]

[link to www.n3kl.org]

Electron dispersal during mag drops has me somewhat concerned considering the F2 levels have had such a concentration. Then we get solar action and these particles are basically polar rain flux,how big of an intake can we handle? 31 days of elevated electrons during the tailend of a solar max has got to be a record as the TEC SHOULD be at a minimum( except maybe during the maunder minimum). Spots are dying again facing earth and we need reconnection energy,extended elevated electrons are bad news.These spots should not be decaying so rapidly, then remorphing once they hit the western limb. How many times has a spot dropped from BGD, then within days of hitting the backside gains polarity stature and fires a monster. This is going on 4 months!

We've got 80 degrees of latitude that stays dormant or gets a high B low C, with no size of CME

Small piece of a puzzle
[link to www.microsofttranslator.com]

Last Edited by shadasonic on 11/14/2012 10:24 PM

Can someone please give me 1 green karma point?

done

Thanks.

Good night everyone

Red is your colour.

UTC Hugh,UTC : )

Tiss' 04:20am over yonder.

Like I said - It's 04:20am : )

This Chimp just Chimmped,Lol.

I Think Madass may be correct in that this is due to a reverberation from the last bit of Storming - Though to me,the Filthy CME I showed earlier looked Earth-bound to me?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Why did I have to go and look at it!?

Go have a look Peoples.

You knowz it.

Region 1610.

[link to halpha.nso.edu] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

I'd expect a possible CME from this area.

stereo hasn't updated for 13 hours