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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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11/14/2012 08:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
From Solen -

'Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to major storm on November 14 due to CME effects and quiet to unsettled on November 15-16
' [link to www.solen.info]

Does anyone remember which CME this would be due to?

We had this One on the 11th [link to www.sidc.oma.be] could it be that dirty looking ripping Filament CME or was it another!?

Anyone?

?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


According to Solen :

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 11-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

[link to www.solen.info]

CH545 ?? 1dunno1
 Quoting: TS66


Hey, thanks guys and gals! I'm sorry I just couldn't get past that top graph. Did anyone notice that the SS Number has reached a peak for the YEAR 2012?

Here's the graph:

[link to www.solen.info]

5a5a5a
Anonymous Coward
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11/14/2012 08:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
From Solen -

'Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to major storm on November 14 due to CME effects and quiet to unsettled on November 15-16
' [link to www.solen.info]

Does anyone remember which CME this would be due to?

We had this One on the 11th [link to www.sidc.oma.be] could it be that dirty looking ripping Filament CME or was it another!?

Anyone?

?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


According to Solen :

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 11-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

[link to www.solen.info]

CH545 ?? 1dunno1
 Quoting: TS66


Hey, thanks guys and gals! I'm sorry I just couldn't get past that top graph. Did anyone notice that the SS Number has reached a peak for the YEAR 2012?

Here's the graph:

[link to www.solen.info]

5a5a5a
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Well that at least encouraging hf
shadasonic

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11/14/2012 08:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]

Only thing I could find was solar wind from a negative then directly followed by a pos. CH?
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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11/14/2012 08:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another round of incoming? NOAA giving an advance (!) warning of a K6???

wtfhiding

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 215
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 14 0243 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 15 0300 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 15 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I don't get it. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

All I am aware of is that near Earth asteroid.
 Quoting: TS66


Wow, I think the chimps at NOAA made a boo-boo, LOL. Look at that Issue Time....haha, almost 24 hours ago. I thought maybe I missed something but it appears to be a glitch unless NOAA now has psychics in Boulder.

iamwithtomato
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11/14/2012 08:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Guess I'll wait and see WTH they are talking about in the AM .

Goodnight all ....

Nice catch Hugh.
Mahala

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11/14/2012 08:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another round of incoming? NOAA giving an advance (!) warning of a K6???

wtfhiding

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 215
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 14 0243 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 15 0300 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 15 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Woot Woot, maybe it'll get down far enough for me to see it..hf I'm along the Columbia river on the Oregon side.. Hoping...
Vincent Price - “A man who limits his interests, limits his life.”
Hugh M Eye

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11/14/2012 08:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Guess I'll wait and see WTH they are talking about in the AM .

Goodnight all ....

Nice catch Hugh.
 Quoting: TS66


Goodnight, Dearest Sol-sister, get some rest as the AM shift needs your insight.
Hugh M Eye

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11/14/2012 09:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Boom the SS Number which just gave us our 2012 peak of 188 has fallen to 108 as the active regions are shrinking and decaying now. We have one new AR in the NE- AR1616. ARs 1610 & 1611 are still classified Beta-Gamma even though 1613 has been the most active (by far) and 1614 is has the largest x-ray signature on EVE.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Latest HMI Intensitygram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 320 Issued at 0030Z on 15 Nov 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1610 S23W36 262 0210 Eai 11 14 Beta-Gamma
1611 N13W14 239 0160 Dso 08 10 Beta-Gamma
1612 N08W05 230 0050 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1613 S23E18 207 0120 Dso 06 08 Beta
1614 N16E31 194 0240 Dai 07 13 Beta
1615 N09E19 206 0080 Dso 06 08 Beta
1616 N21E61 164 0070 Dro 04 02 Beta

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
madajs

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11/14/2012 09:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I interpret Solen's "CME effects" warning to apply to the CME impact that occurred earlier today, not a new CME.

Unrelated, I see some people are trying to ascertain the source of the new earth facing CME (won't be due for arrival for days) [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I find it rather hard to find a source considering the best tools for geoeffective CMEs are the Stereo satellites, and their public offerings are plagued by progressively worse data gaps.... as we all well know :(

Last Edited by madajs on 11/14/2012 09:46 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
shadasonic

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11/14/2012 09:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
remaking this post.
 Quoting: madajs


I agree.

not on the post remaking but most of what the old one contained.lol

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 11/14/2012 09:45 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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11/14/2012 09:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hi SC what do you know about meteor detection?
Cos the site i use is giving a really unusual signature, never seen it b4 what do you recon...

[link to www.meteorscan.com]

 Quoting: >~* Flutterby Fringe*~<




wow look at this one

screen shot just now [link to s11.postimage.org]
shadasonic

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11/14/2012 10:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.n3kl.org]

Electron dispersal during mag drops has me somewhat concerned considering the F2 levels have had such a concentration. Then we get solar action and these particles are basically polar rain flux,how big of an intake can we handle? 31 days of elevated electrons during the tailend of a solar max has got to be a record as the TEC SHOULD be at a minimum( except maybe during the maunder minimum). Spots are dying again facing earth and we need reconnection energy,extended elevated electrons are bad news.These spots should not be decaying so rapidly, then remorphing once they hit the western limb. How many times has a spot dropped from BGD, then within days of hitting the backside gains polarity stature and fires a monster. This is going on 4 months!

We've got 80 degrees of latitude that stays dormant or gets a high B low C, with no size of CME

Small piece of a puzzle
[link to www.microsofttranslator.com]

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 11/14/2012 10:24 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Solar Guardian

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11/14/2012 10:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can someone please give me 1 green karma point? too_sad
Thread: Just conducted a new research on annual big quakes that happened since 2010. August 20-September 2 2014???

Thread: Russian scientist predicts "Massive Earthquake" to hit Japan by end of 2014!!!

Thread: Japanese scientist predicts another major earthquake in Japan by 2017 -Japanese news!!!

"For 2 consecutive years, lots of rumors concerning big earthquakes and pole shifts caused by a celestial object to occur around the date of August 17 has been circulating on the internet from sources like John Moore and Mike Harris (Nibiru Aug 17 2012) and Pattie Brassard (Mag 15 quake Aug 17 2013).....Is there in any way a chance that the real date could actually be this year? .....August 17-27 2014????" ----Solar Guardian
Mahala

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11/14/2012 10:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can someone please give me 1 green karma point? too_sad
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


donehf
Vincent Price - “A man who limits his interests, limits his life.”
Solar Guardian

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11/14/2012 10:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can someone please give me 1 green karma point? too_sad
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


donehf
 Quoting: Mahala


Thanks. hfhfhugs
Thread: Just conducted a new research on annual big quakes that happened since 2010. August 20-September 2 2014???

Thread: Russian scientist predicts "Massive Earthquake" to hit Japan by end of 2014!!!

Thread: Japanese scientist predicts another major earthquake in Japan by 2017 -Japanese news!!!

"For 2 consecutive years, lots of rumors concerning big earthquakes and pole shifts caused by a celestial object to occur around the date of August 17 has been circulating on the internet from sources like John Moore and Mike Harris (Nibiru Aug 17 2012) and Pattie Brassard (Mag 15 quake Aug 17 2013).....Is there in any way a chance that the real date could actually be this year? .....August 17-27 2014????" ----Solar Guardian
shenue

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11/14/2012 11:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night everyone
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Anonymous Coward
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11/14/2012 11:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can someone please give me 1 green karma point? too_sad
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


loser

Red is your colour.
SC
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11/14/2012 11:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another round of incoming? NOAA giving an advance (!) warning of a K6???

wtfhiding

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 215
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 14 0243 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 15 0300 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 15 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I don't get it. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

All I am aware of is that near Earth asteroid.
 Quoting: TS66


Wow, I think the chimps at NOAA made a boo-boo, LOL. Look at that Issue Time....haha, almost 24 hours ago. I thought maybe I missed something but it appears to be a glitch unless NOAA now has psychics in Boulder.

iamwithtomato
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


UTC Hugh,UTC : )

Tiss' 04:20am over yonder.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14589973
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11/14/2012 11:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another round of incoming? NOAA giving an advance (!) warning of a K6???

wtfhiding

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 215
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 14 0243 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 15 0300 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 15 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I don't get it. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

All I am aware of is that near Earth asteroid.
 Quoting: TS66


Wow, I think the chimps at NOAA made a boo-boo, LOL. Look at that Issue Time....haha, almost 24 hours ago. I thought maybe I missed something but it appears to be a glitch unless NOAA now has psychics in Boulder.

iamwithtomato
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


UTC Hugh,UTC : )

Tiss' 04:20am over yonder.
 Quoting: SC 14589973


Like I said - It's 04:20am : )

This Chimp just Chimmped,Lol.
SC
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11/14/2012 11:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I Think Madass may be correct in that this is due to a reverberation from the last bit of Storming - Though to me,the Filthy CME I showed earlier looked Earth-bound to me?
Anonymous Coward
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11/14/2012 11:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
tomato
SC
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11/14/2012 11:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Why did I have to go and look at it!?

Go have a look Peoples.

You knowz it.
Mahala

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11/14/2012 11:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


ohno
Vincent Price - “A man who limits his interests, limits his life.”
SC
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11/14/2012 11:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Region 1610.
SC
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11/14/2012 11:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

I'd expect a possible CME from this area.
Anonymous Coward
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11/14/2012 11:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
stereo hasn't updated for 13 hours
rant
madajs

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11/15/2012 12:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
stereo hasn't updated for 13 hours
rant
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


"Deep Space Network schedule conflicts with other missions are expected to result in significant data gaps starting in mid-November 2012, and continuing for several months." [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

I hadn't seen this before. Well that explains the shoddy service we've been getting from STEREO.

Last Edited by madajs on 11/15/2012 12:12 AM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Solar Guardian

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11/15/2012 12:13 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Insiders have confirmed some solar-related problems will occur here on Earth starting from the second-week of December 2012.
Thread: Just conducted a new research on annual big quakes that happened since 2010. August 20-September 2 2014???

Thread: Russian scientist predicts "Massive Earthquake" to hit Japan by end of 2014!!!

Thread: Japanese scientist predicts another major earthquake in Japan by 2017 -Japanese news!!!

"For 2 consecutive years, lots of rumors concerning big earthquakes and pole shifts caused by a celestial object to occur around the date of August 17 has been circulating on the internet from sources like John Moore and Mike Harris (Nibiru Aug 17 2012) and Pattie Brassard (Mag 15 quake Aug 17 2013).....Is there in any way a chance that the real date could actually be this year? .....August 17-27 2014????" ----Solar Guardian
Isis One

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11/15/2012 12:30 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
two years ago and today...

[link to www.freeimagehosting.net]

 Quoting: Fedex12


Nice shot Fedex! Look how much more hazy the sun was two years ago.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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11/15/2012 03:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I interpret Solen's "CME effects" warning to apply to the CME impact that occurred earlier today, not a new CME.

Unrelated, I see some people are trying to ascertain the source of the new earth facing CME (won't be due for arrival for days) [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I find it rather hard to find a source considering the best tools for geoeffective CMEs are the Stereo satellites, and their public offerings are plagued by progressively worse data gaps.... as we all well know :(
 Quoting: madajs


Wheres the direct link to this model??? I can never freakin find it.

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