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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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11/14/2012 11:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can someone please give me 1 green karma point? too_sad
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


loser

Red is your colour.
SC
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11/14/2012 11:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another round of incoming? NOAA giving an advance (!) warning of a K6???

wtfhiding

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 215
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 14 0243 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 15 0300 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 15 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I don't get it. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

All I am aware of is that near Earth asteroid.
 Quoting: TS66


Wow, I think the chimps at NOAA made a boo-boo, LOL. Look at that Issue Time....haha, almost 24 hours ago. I thought maybe I missed something but it appears to be a glitch unless NOAA now has psychics in Boulder.

iamwithtomato
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


UTC Hugh,UTC : )

Tiss' 04:20am over yonder.
Anonymous Coward
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11/14/2012 11:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another round of incoming? NOAA giving an advance (!) warning of a K6???

wtfhiding

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 215
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 14 0243 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 15 0300 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 15 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I don't get it. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

All I am aware of is that near Earth asteroid.
 Quoting: TS66


Wow, I think the chimps at NOAA made a boo-boo, LOL. Look at that Issue Time....haha, almost 24 hours ago. I thought maybe I missed something but it appears to be a glitch unless NOAA now has psychics in Boulder.

iamwithtomato
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


UTC Hugh,UTC : )

Tiss' 04:20am over yonder.
 Quoting: SC 14589973


Like I said - It's 04:20am : )

This Chimp just Chimmped,Lol.
SC
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11/14/2012 11:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I Think Madass may be correct in that this is due to a reverberation from the last bit of Storming - Though to me,the Filthy CME I showed earlier looked Earth-bound to me?
Anonymous Coward
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11/14/2012 11:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
tomato
SC
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11/14/2012 11:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Why did I have to go and look at it!?

Go have a look Peoples.

You knowz it.
Mahala

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11/14/2012 11:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


ohno
Vincent Price - A man who limits his interests, limits his life.
SC
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11/14/2012 11:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Region 1610.
SC
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11/14/2012 11:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

I'd expect a possible CME from this area.
Anonymous Coward
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11/14/2012 11:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
stereo hasn't updated for 13 hours
rant
madajs

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11/15/2012 12:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
stereo hasn't updated for 13 hours
rant
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


"Deep Space Network schedule conflicts with other missions are expected to result in significant data gaps starting in mid-November 2012, and continuing for several months." [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

I hadn't seen this before. Well that explains the shoddy service we've been getting from STEREO.

Last Edited by madajs on 11/15/2012 12:12 AM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Solar Guardian

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11/15/2012 12:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Insiders have confirmed some solar-related problems will occur here on Earth starting from the second-week of December 2012.
Isis One

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11/15/2012 12:30 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
two years ago and today...

[link to www.freeimagehosting.net]

 Quoting: Fedex12


Nice shot Fedex! Look how much more hazy the sun was two years ago.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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11/15/2012 03:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I interpret Solen's "CME effects" warning to apply to the CME impact that occurred earlier today, not a new CME.

Unrelated, I see some people are trying to ascertain the source of the new earth facing CME (won't be due for arrival for days) [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I find it rather hard to find a source considering the best tools for geoeffective CMEs are the Stereo satellites, and their public offerings are plagued by progressively worse data gaps.... as we all well know :(
 Quoting: madajs


Wheres the direct link to this model??? I can never freakin find it.
madajs

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11/15/2012 03:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I interpret Solen's "CME effects" warning to apply to the CME impact that occurred earlier today, not a new CME.

Unrelated, I see some people are trying to ascertain the source of the new earth facing CME (won't be due for arrival for days) [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I find it rather hard to find a source considering the best tools for geoeffective CMEs are the Stereo satellites, and their public offerings are plagued by progressively worse data gaps.... as we all well know :(
 Quoting: madajs


Wheres the direct link to this model??? I can never freakin find it.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#

Can you elaborate a bit more on what it is you are looking for?
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 1426914
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11/15/2012 03:54 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I interpret Solen's "CME effects" warning to apply to the CME impact that occurred earlier today, not a new CME.

Unrelated, I see some people are trying to ascertain the source of the new earth facing CME (won't be due for arrival for days) [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I find it rather hard to find a source considering the best tools for geoeffective CMEs are the Stereo satellites, and their public offerings are plagued by progressively worse data gaps.... as we all well know :(
 Quoting: madajs


Wheres the direct link to this model??? I can never freakin find it.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#

Can you elaborate a bit more on what it is you are looking for?
 Quoting: madajs


The CME model you posted. I can find the one on the main integrated space weather website, but I can never actually post the link? Sorry for being so confusing.
madajs

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11/15/2012 04:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I interpret Solen's "CME effects" warning to apply to the CME impact that occurred earlier today, not a new CME.

Unrelated, I see some people are trying to ascertain the source of the new earth facing CME (won't be due for arrival for days) [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I find it rather hard to find a source considering the best tools for geoeffective CMEs are the Stereo satellites, and their public offerings are plagued by progressively worse data gaps.... as we all well know :(
 Quoting: madajs


Wheres the direct link to this model??? I can never freakin find it.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#

Can you elaborate a bit more on what it is you are looking for?
 Quoting: madajs


The CME model you posted. I can find the one on the main integrated space weather website, but I can never actually post the link? Sorry for being so confusing.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#

Hi geo. Ok I think I understand now. The way I link to specific model runs of the iswa enlil cygnet is to edit the time stamp of the CME into the link used above. I know you can also link to a specific iswa layout setup (like this [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov] ), but I don't like that method as much, as it loads slow imo. Cheers :)

PS. just in case you dont know how to generate a layout link, click the 'save layout' button on the top bar of the iswa page

Last Edited by madajs on 11/15/2012 04:42 AM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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11/15/2012 04:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Wheres the direct link to this model??? I can never freakin find it.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#

Can you elaborate a bit more on what it is you are looking for?
 Quoting: madajs


The CME model you posted. I can find the one on the main integrated space weather website, but I can never actually post the link? Sorry for being so confusing.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#

Hi geo. Ok I think I understand now. The way I link to specific model runs of the iswa enlil cygnet is to edit the time stamp of the CME into the link used above. I know you can also link to a specific iswa layout setup (like this [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov] ), but I don't like that method as much, as it loads slow imo. Cheers :)
 Quoting: madajs


Ok. Thanks hf
Tiny Trink

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11/15/2012 07:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning,

Stay Safe and Balanced.

Vibrate do not Fixate. ~ Shad

Shine Brightly.

Much Love,

[link to www.youtube.com]



Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Anonymous Coward
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11/15/2012 07:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well we've had a couple of moderate earth facing flares. I'll post this hoping we can keep track, as all seem to have potential impacts in the coming days.

At the end of the 14th we had a C1.3 from 1613
[link to www.lmsal.com]
/gev_20121114_2333.html

:C1.3:
:farside1:

A B8.2 from 1611
[link to www.lmsal.com] Missing data on seeds from 01:25-08:36

a C6.3 from 1610
[link to www.lmsal.com]

A C2.8 from 1613
[link to www.lmsal.com]

:C6.3C2.8:

You may have toswitch out 1613 and 1610 on these last two I'm not completely sure due to location/CME strength.

:C6.3:

Movie:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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11/15/2012 07:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
stereo hasn't updated for 13 hours
rant
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


"Deep Space Network schedule conflicts with other missions are expected to result in significant data gaps starting in mid-November 2012, and continuing for several months." [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

I hadn't seen this before. Well that explains the shoddy service we've been getting from STEREO.
 Quoting: madajs


This explanation of missing pertinent information may come in handy for them through the peak of Solar Max. Not so much us ....

sad
shadasonic

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11/15/2012 07:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well we've had a couple of moderate earth facing flares. I'll post this hoping we can keep track, as all seem to have potential impacts in the coming days.

At the end of the 14th we had a C1.3 from 1613
[link to www.lmsal.com]
/gev_20121114_2333.html

:C1.3:
farside1

A B8.2 from 1611
[link to www.lmsal.com] Missing data on seeds from 01:25-08:36

a C6.3 from 1610
[link to www.lmsal.com]

A C2.8 from 1613
[link to www.lmsal.com]

:C6.3C2.8:

Please switch out 1613 and 1610 on these last too, oops.

:C6.3:

Movie:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
 Quoting: TS66


Nice work TS!
One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If weve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. Were no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. Its simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that weve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. Carl Sagan
miabelieves
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11/15/2012 07:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
stereo hasn't updated for 13 hours
rant
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


"Deep Space Network schedule conflicts with other missions are expected to result in significant data gaps starting in mid-November 2012, and continuing for several months." [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

I hadn't seen this before. Well that explains the shoddy service we've been getting from STEREO.
 Quoting: madajs


Does this really surprise anyone. I have wondered now for a bit (tin foil hat on) if all the data is precise or just what they "want" us to see. You all have been mistified about protons and such coming in at a time you did not expect it. All of it has me SMH.
shenue

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11/15/2012 08:04 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
good morning all
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Anonymous Coward
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11/15/2012 08:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And another earth facing C3.2/1615

[link to www.lmsal.com]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


CME 1dunno1

:datagap:
muse_1111

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11/15/2012 09:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning,

Stay Safe and Balanced.

Vibrate do not Fixate. ~ Shad

Shine Brightly.

Much Love,

[link to www.youtube.com]



 Quoting: Tiny Trink


Good morning! Is the 3-minute news link working for anyone? I click on the embeded video and there is nothing. I even linked to YouTube, but the video shows to be at 0 min of 0 min long. It doesn't do anything when I hit play.

Edited: I was able to get it to play off of YouTube through a different link. [link to www.youtube.com]

Last Edited by muse_1111 on 11/15/2012 09:44 AM
madajs

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11/15/2012 10:46 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And another earth facing C3.2/1615

[link to www.lmsal.com]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


CME 1dunno1

:datagap:
 Quoting: TS66

Haha I love it :)
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
optimum judgment

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11/15/2012 01:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
From Solen -

'Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to major storm on November 14 due to CME effects and quiet to unsettled on November 15-16
' [link to www.solen.info]

Does anyone remember which CME this would be due to?

We had this One on the 11th [link to www.sidc.oma.be] could it be that dirty looking ripping Filament CME or was it another!?

Anyone?

?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


hi SC what do you know about meteor detection?
Cos the site i use is giving a really unusual signature, never seen it b4 what do you recon...

[link to www.meteorscan.com]

????????
 Quoting: optimum judgment


Hello there OJ : )

NiNz and I went through this a few Weeks ago,The equipment picks up more than just Meteors,it will display most any Energy event(within certain parameters)within our Atmospheres - What you are looking at(that looks wild by the way!)is due to Tropospheric Conditions due to the Geo-storming recently...If you look next time we have a Geo-storm you will see the continuous Wave Signal that is presently displayed.

You can find out more about the site by going through the panels on the page and having a dig,here is what I snipped for you regarding 'Enhanced Tropospheric and Sporadic E-Propagation Conditions' -

Snipped -

'Radio Propagation Experiments


Solar activity plays a major role in radio communications. We carry out experiments on various wavelengths examining the relationship between Solar activity and Radio Communications. In addition we also experiment with radio wave meteor scatter and sometimes communicate with other radio stations over thousands of miles using these reflected radio waves.


We utilise two main sites for ionospheric propagation testing and observations. The Observatory at Sidmouth and another site near Ventnor Radar Station on the Isle of Wight.


The meteor radar detection system is also useful for predicting VHF tropospheric propagation. Look for a continuous trace. The continuous wave carrier is received directly during enhanced tropospheric and sporadic-E propagation conditions
'. [link to www.meteorscan.com] .

Hope that helps you a bitsunhf
 Quoting: SC 14589973


This site is linked out of the Meteor Detection site [link to www.hamqsl.com] It has lot of Solar/Radio information if you want to find out more.
 Quoting: SC 14589973


Thanks SC just what i was looking for helps a lot..!applause2
Spittin'Cesium

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11/15/2012 01:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm not sure where this new Earth-directed CME originated, but maybe someone else knows. I tried to narrow it down to two suspects. The first was from the last M flare @ approx. 04:00z 11/14:

CACTus Details:
[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

SEEDS Movie:
[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

The second is the large, bright eruption from beyond the east limb @ around 12:00z. This is classified a Type II Halo, but I can't fathom how it could be geo-effective....you decide:

CACTus Details:
[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

SEEDS Movie:
[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

explosionahhhexplosion
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Strange - The CME I was thinking was shown on the Model,this One [link to www.sidc.oma.be] is now classified a type IV Halo Event - It was a Type III Yesterday(sure of it) - Anyhoo',this was the One I suppose.

Good Evening Sols and Brolssunhf

Edit:Sorry Confusion,I was thinking about the other 6 Index Alert posted Yesterday and not the CME on the Model : )

I think I need some Coffee,bloody brainz.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/15/2012 02:18 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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11/15/2012 01:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Insiders have confirmed some solar-related problems will occur here on Earth starting from the second-week of December 2012.
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


Is this the hairy palm network insiders group?


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