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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
shadasonic

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11/20/2012 01:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I may be wrong about the CME, it's hard to say as SOHO stopped updating at just the wrong time (as usual). There was obviously a CME from the M-flare as noted by CACTus-

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

This info will be updated later when we're allowed to see all the pertinent data. Here's the Solarsoft video of the M-flare (now corrected after they embarrassingly posted a vid of 1618 doing nothing much):

Close-up M-flare w/ejecta movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

I still believe there was a CME associated with the large channel eruption. The jury is still out until SOHO updates and we see the size and shape of the halo.

A front-side CME appears to be visible from STEREO Behind:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


[link to halpha.nso.edu]

looks like we had a small filament liftoff midquator west also.


Solarham has it coming from 1619 area also.


[link to www.solarham.net]
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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11/20/2012 01:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.ips.gov.au]

This has been riding max for 3 days now,wth.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 01:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I may be wrong about the CME, it's hard to say as SOHO stopped updating at just the wrong time (as usual). There was obviously a CME from the M-flare as noted by CACTus-

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

This info will be updated later when we're allowed to see all the pertinent data. Here's the Solarsoft video of the M-flare (now corrected after they embarrassingly posted a vid of 1618 doing nothing much):

Close-up M-flare w/ejecta movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

I still believe there was a CME associated with the large channel eruption. The jury is still out until SOHO updates and we see the size and shape of the halo.

A front-side CME appears to be visible from STEREO Behind:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


[link to halpha.nso.edu]

looks like we had a small filament liftoff midquator west also.


Solarham has it coming from 1619 area also.


[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: shadasonic


This is what I've been talking about all day. Didn't you see my earlier post with pics of the Hyder flare? My gut tells me we're seeing 2 nearly-simultaneous events ; with a fast CME from the limb and a large, slow CME from the filament channel eruption. It's getting harder to triangulate from the STEREO images alone. As you no doubt know, the STEREO craft are moving further and further behind the sun. A year ago they were nearly at right angles to SOHO's position, here's where they are now-

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

NOTE: SOHO images are updating now, so as soon as they fill in the gaps we'll have a better idea. This new C3 image doesn't appear as threatening as I initially feared:
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 11/20/2012 01:56 PM
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 02:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE Electrons saw a nice jump from the M-flare, so it was magnetically connected to Earth:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

24-hr. ACE Protons and Electrons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The magnetosphere is being perturbed again, most likely from the glancing blow of Friday's CME.

GOES Electron Flux plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The Bz is somewhat South but I doubt we'll reach storm levels.

ACE Solar Wind data plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 02:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another impulsive M-flare . This one seems to be from 1618.

X-ray flux plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Big Bear image:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
madajs

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11/20/2012 03:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if this is the same run as the one that shad posted earlier, but anyways here's the cygnet enlil model of a large geoffective CME [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] (surely related to the activity hugh has been posting about etc.)
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 03:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Busy day at the solar doom bunker today, LOL.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2030
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 20 1953 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 20 1953 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 21 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SDO Images of M1.6 from 1618:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

:1618EVE:

:M1.6flare:
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 03:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if this is the same run as the one that shad posted earlier, but anyways here's the cygnet enlil model of a large geoffective CME [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] (surely related to the activity hugh has been posting about etc.)
 Quoting: madajs


Hey, thanks for that, Madajs! That's a new model and it jibes with my first impressions of what's happening. I was already second-guessing myself. We'll see what SOHO images tell us soon (I hope).

This Cerro Tololo H-alpha movie shows all 3 big events-1)channel eruption 2) M1.6 from 1611 (W. limb) and 3)M1.6 from 1618.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
miabelieves

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11/20/2012 03:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
As you no doubt know, the STEREO craft are moving further and further behind the sun. A year ago they were nearly at right angles to SOHO's position, here's where they are now-


Hugh, forgive my ignorance but no I did not know this. Why would they move behind the sun? Why are they not always positioned at the angles of the sun? Is there a reason for this?
Please don't attack me for my question.

Thanks in advance.
Hold on to your undies, it's gonna be a hell of a ride
whiteangel
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11/20/2012 03:37 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Was there a CME from 1618?
AMERICA the Beautiful!!!
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 03:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
As you no doubt know, the STEREO craft are moving further and further behind the sun. A year ago they were nearly at right angles to SOHO's position, here's where they are now-


Hugh, forgive my ignorance but no I did not know this. Why would they move behind the sun? Why are they not always positioned at the angles of the sun? Is there a reason for this?
Please don't attack me for my question.

Thanks in advance.
 Quoting: miabelieves


Hi, Mia, one is in front of Earth in orbit around the sun (Ahead) and the other is lagging Behind Earth in orbit. They don't travel at the same speed as Earth, so they are drifting further away around the sun and 2015 they will pass each other behind the sun as they move to opposite sides where they are now. You can play around with the orbit tool at the link I posted earlier and see it clearly.
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 03:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Was there a CME from 1618?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Who knows? I think STEREO is shut down for the day, LOL. Anyway, here's a recent magnetogram of 1618 as it displays a growing complexity of fields-

:1618magneto:
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 03:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1620
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 20 2004 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 20 1958 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Solar Doom Bunke
Luisport

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11/20/2012 03:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.n3kl.org] we got something here no?
Nacht im Walde

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11/20/2012 04:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
where did the new M flare come from?
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
whiteangel
A Very Proud AMERICAN!!!!

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11/20/2012 04:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Was there a CME from 1618?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Who knows? I think STEREO is shut down for the day, LOL. Anyway, here's a recent magnetogram of 1618 as it displays a growing complexity of fields-

:1618magneto:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thing just keeps growing and seems that every time we get action, STEREO goes to sleep
AMERICA the Beautiful!!!
whiteangel
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11/20/2012 04:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
where did the new M flare come from?
 Quoting: Nacht im Walde


One on the backside 1611 I think it was and the last one from 1618 fully facing us.
AMERICA the Beautiful!!!
Luisport

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11/20/2012 04:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.n3kl.org] we got something here no?
 Quoting: Luisport


this is the cme arriving?
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 04:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Does anyone know what this predicted CME arrival is about? This was issued early today before the big events started. Was there another CME yesterday that I missed?

Event Issue Date: 2012-11-20 09:55:29.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-11-23 04:26:06.0 GMT

Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.3 Re

Also has anyone noticed how the 5-minute x-ray graph has reversed the colors? Anyhow, we can see the increased activity over the past 3 days:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Today's CME should also be arriving on the 23rd-

:11/23incoming:

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 11/20/2012 04:28 PM
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 04:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.n3kl.org] we got something here no?
 Quoting: Luisport


this is the cme arriving?
 Quoting: Luisport


Minor geomagnetic disturbance possibly caused by the big eruption Friday on the east limb. Glancing blow at Earth was expected last night.

Event Issue Date: 2012-11-16 09:12:16.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-11-19 21:51:38.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 17 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.5 Re
Nacht im Walde

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11/20/2012 04:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
where did the new M flare come from?
 Quoting: Nacht im Walde


One on the backside 1611 I think it was and the last one from 1618 fully facing us.
 Quoting: whiteangel


was just posted on solarham:

Sunspot 1618 continues to expand in the northern hemisphere and is currently producing C-Class Solar flares. This region did also just produce a moderate M1.6 solar flare at 19:28 UTC Tuesday afternoon. This region could produce a stronger solar flare within the next 12-24 hours.

really fast growing spot atm
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 04:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SIDC seems to echo what I've been saying here:


COMMENT: NOAA ARs 1618 evolved into a beta gamma configuration and
produced several C-class flares, together with NOAA AR 1619. At 12:09
UT, SECCHI/COR2 on STEREO Ahead shows signs of what could possibly be an
Earth directed CME that erupted from/close to NOAA AR 1619. Shortly
after that, an M1.7 flare peaked at 12:41 UT. There is not enough data

yet in order to provide more information. NOAA AR 1618 has potential for
producing M-class flares. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected
to remain so.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

Well they may have been wrong about the quiet geomagnetic conditions.

SEEDS STEREO Ahead movie of CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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11/20/2012 05:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is Solarhams cme prediction model



[link to solarham.net]
shadasonic

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11/20/2012 05:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if this is the same run as the one that shad posted earlier, but anyways here's the cygnet enlil model of a large geoffective CME [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] (surely related to the activity hugh has been posting about etc.)
 Quoting: madajs


Back on now and thats the one I was waiting for,bingo!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
madajs

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11/20/2012 05:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is Solarhams cme prediction model



[link to solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#

Just noticed that too, was checking for that to update. Shall be an interesting day :)

Edit: I have to say, looking at the circular and wedge plots for geoeffective enlil above, this looks like one of the messier ejection events i've seen of late. I see about 4 different waves (two of which will hit us). Throw in a solar wind stream to boot. No wonder the velocity prediction is so bumpy.

Last Edited by madajs on 11/20/2012 05:17 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
shadasonic

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11/20/2012 05:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I believe its on now, energy shifting SS activation our way, and we've got decent SS backside . We could get very busy!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Rising Son

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11/20/2012 05:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
If you guys who know this stuff and observe it everyday are interested, then I can't help but be fascinated. I know it's still early - but any predictions about the effect it will have?
"Be still, and know that I am God." Psalm 46:10

Truth needs no validation because it is self-evident and undeniable. Therefore, anything that requires validation to be realized or justified as truth must contain at least some degree of falsehood.

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miabelieves

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11/20/2012 05:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I believe its on now, energy shifting SS activation our way, and we've got decent SS backside . We could get very busy!
 Quoting: shadasonic


oh no, and they are giving another 48 reprieve on the bans...uuggghhhh
hopefully the suntards, says with love, will not be noticed.
Hold on to your undies, it's gonna be a hell of a ride
madajs

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11/20/2012 05:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
If you guys who know this stuff and observe it everyday are interested, then I can't help but be fascinated. I know it's still early - but any predictions about the effect it will have?
 Quoting: Rising Son

Weather predictions are always kind of futile, be that space weather or regular weather haha. This one doesn't look particularly dense (the part that's predicted to hit us, anyways) or fast, but it does look very complex. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a G2 storm out of it.

We won't know how hostile the polarity of it is until it hits ;)

popcorn

Last Edited by madajs on 11/20/2012 05:29 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
shadasonic

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11/20/2012 05:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
If you guys who know this stuff and observe it everyday are interested, then I can't help but be fascinated. I know it's still early - but any predictions about the effect it will have?
 Quoting: Rising Son

Weather predictions are always kind of futile, be that space weather or regular weather haha. This one doesn't look particularly dense (the part that's predicted to hit us, anyways) or fast, but it does look very complex. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a G2 storm out of it.

We won't know how hostile the polarity of it is until it hits ;)

popcorn
 Quoting: madajs


Its nice to be working with decent storms again, lets pray they stay nice, imagine if they all come around the corner and develop like 1618 has.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan


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