SOLAR WATCH * 251 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

There was a hiccup in production earlier this year when it was reported that one of the directors had a spat and left the country with some of the film's production footage... At that point it was speculated that the film would never materialize. Then there was an update that the issue was apparently resolved and that the film project would continue but have a release date later than what was originally planned. Hopefully it will be released before the end of the year, lol. I was anxious to see it when I first learned about it. Still am.

Me too, even if just for entertainment value !!! Thanks ANHEDONIC

Looks like a large filament eruption produced a big Earth-directed CME. I don't think it's from the M-flare, although the two events may be related. I'll have to dig for more data on these happenings.

STEREO Ahead movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Not sure how much longer than can wait however !!! LOL

No problem.

The title of the documentary is supposed to be:

Revelations of the Mayans: 2012 & Beyond

I like the "Beyond" part

I think the shows getting ready to start Hugh, and I think we'll see something out of 1619 soon.

This giant Hyder flare/channel eruption is one of the 3 or 4 biggest I've seen. Although the data will be trickling in for the next 20 hours, I'm 99% sure that this CME will be greatly geo-effective. The filament channel eruption was just to the west of 1619 and began before the M-flare from 1611 (west limb). Note: Solarsoft has corrected their initial claim that 1618 produced the M.

SDO composite of hyder flare eruption:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

We still see loops spreading 2 1/2 hours later:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

3 1/2 hours:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

HYDER FLARE @AR1619-
:11/20erupt:
EARTHBOUND CME?
:11/20CME-c2a:

EVE x-ray images:

12:20z-
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

12:40z-
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

That whole western limb is getting jumpy!

Looks to me like we'll catch a load off that one,wow

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I don't think this helps much, and I'm not sure what this similation is showing (which event).

note: this is the early simulation of the filament eruption near 1619


[link to www.solarham.net]

This looks a hell of alot larger than goddards sim.

Last Edited by shadasonic on 11/20/2012 12:06 PM

The sun has made the news again:
Giant Sun Eruption Captured in NASA Video
Date: 17 November 2012
The sun unleashed a monster eruption of super-hot plasma Friday (Nov. 16) in back-to-back solar storms captured on camera by a NASA spacecraft.
The giant sun eruption, called a solar prominence, occurred at 1 a.m. EST (0600 GMT), with another event flaring up four hours later. The prominences was so large, it expanded beyond the camera view of NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which captured high-definition video of the solar eruption.
The full article and video is here: [link to www.space.com]

Yep, didn't you see they dusted off M. Kaku for his annual Solar Doom Warning-

[link to video.foxnews.com]

Here's his "Solar Katrina" 2012 warning from 2009-

[link to www.youtube.com]

Anyone see S0 2 min news this morning? I noticed most of the earth facing sunspots are geomagnetically connected as of this morning about 6 or so when the video was produced presumably. The earth footprint is pretty much directly in front of the location the flare came from wasnt it?

Good morning. Funny I had a dream about this thread last night/this morning. The discussion was about something that was posted here 1 year ago and was all in caps, and somehow Tiny Trink had missed it. ??? I have no idea what it means, I am new here. Wasn't planning to share until I saw your inquiry then felt compelled to.
Peace all!

Will be interesting if that eruption near 1619 goes west as I thought we had a good connection with that area

CMEs EXPLAINED- Just in time, haha.


[link to www.youtube.com]

Hi Chia,

Humm! It would be very possible for me to miss something, however, maybe not in all caps. lol

I am going to go back through this thread and see if anything is in caps. lol

Thanks for sharing. You are always welcome to share even when you think you should not.



Much Love,

I may be wrong about the CME, it's hard to say as SOHO stopped updating at just the wrong time (as usual). There was obviously a CME from the M-flare as noted by CACTus-

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

This info will be updated later when we're allowed to see all the pertinent data. Here's the Solarsoft video of the M-flare (now corrected after they embarrassingly posted a vid of 1618 doing nothing much):

Close-up M-flare w/ejecta movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

I still believe there was a CME associated with the large channel eruption. The jury is still out until SOHO updates and we see the size and shape of the halo.

A front-side CME appears to be visible from STEREO Behind:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

looks like we had a small filament liftoff midquator west also.


Solarham has it coming from 1619 area also.


[link to www.solarham.net]

[link to www.ips.gov.au]

This has been riding max for 3 days now,wth.

This is what I've been talking about all day. Didn't you see my earlier post with pics of the Hyder flare? My gut tells me we're seeing 2 nearly-simultaneous events ; with a fast CME from the limb and a large, slow CME from the filament channel eruption. It's getting harder to triangulate from the STEREO images alone. As you no doubt know, the STEREO craft are moving further and further behind the sun. A year ago they were nearly at right angles to SOHO's position, here's where they are now-

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

NOTE: SOHO images are updating now, so as soon as they fill in the gaps we'll have a better idea. This new C3 image doesn't appear as threatening as I initially feared:
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 11/20/2012 01:56 PM

ACE Electrons saw a nice jump from the M-flare, so it was magnetically connected to Earth:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

24-hr. ACE Protons and Electrons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The magnetosphere is being perturbed again, most likely from the glancing blow of Friday's CME.

GOES Electron Flux plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The Bz is somewhat South but I doubt we'll reach storm levels.

ACE Solar Wind data plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Another impulsive M-flare . This one seems to be from 1618.

X-ray flux plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Big Bear image:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

I don't know if this is the same run as the one that shad posted earlier, but anyways here's the cygnet enlil model of a large geoffective CME [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] (surely related to the activity hugh has been posting about etc.)

Busy day at the solar doom bunker today, LOL.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2030
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 20 1953 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 20 1953 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 21 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SDO Images of M1.6 from 1618:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

:1618EVE:

:M1.6flare:

Hey, thanks for that, Madajs! That's a new model and it jibes with my first impressions of what's happening. I was already second-guessing myself. We'll see what SOHO images tell us soon (I hope).

This Cerro Tololo H-alpha movie shows all 3 big events-1)channel eruption 2) M1.6 from 1611 (W. limb) and 3)M1.6 from 1618.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

As you no doubt know, the STEREO craft are moving further and further behind the sun. A year ago they were nearly at right angles to SOHO's position, here's where they are now-


Hugh, forgive my ignorance but no I did not know this. Why would they move behind the sun? Why are they not always positioned at the angles of the sun? Is there a reason for this?
Please don't attack me for my question.

Thanks in advance.

Was there a CME from 1618?