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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 03:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Was there a CME from 1618?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Who knows? I think STEREO is shut down for the day, LOL. Anyway, here's a recent magnetogram of 1618 as it displays a growing complexity of fields-

:1618magneto:
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 03:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1620
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 20 2004 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 20 1958 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Solar Doom Bunke
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Luisport

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11/20/2012 03:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.n3kl.org] we got something here no?
Nacht im Walde

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11/20/2012 04:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
where did the new M flare come from?
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
whiteangel

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11/20/2012 04:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Was there a CME from 1618?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Who knows? I think STEREO is shut down for the day, LOL. Anyway, here's a recent magnetogram of 1618 as it displays a growing complexity of fields-

:1618magneto:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thing just keeps growing and seems that every time we get action, STEREO goes to sleep
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
whiteangel

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11/20/2012 04:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
where did the new M flare come from?
 Quoting: Nacht im Walde


One on the backside 1611 I think it was and the last one from 1618 fully facing us.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Luisport

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11/20/2012 04:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.n3kl.org] we got something here no?
 Quoting: Luisport


this is the cme arriving?
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 04:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Does anyone know what this predicted CME arrival is about? This was issued early today before the big events started. Was there another CME yesterday that I missed?

Event Issue Date: 2012-11-20 09:55:29.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-11-23 04:26:06.0 GMT

Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.3 Re

Also has anyone noticed how the 5-minute x-ray graph has reversed the colors? Anyhow, we can see the increased activity over the past 3 days:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Today's CME should also be arriving on the 23rd-

:11/23incoming:

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 11/20/2012 04:28 PM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 04:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.n3kl.org] we got something here no?
 Quoting: Luisport


this is the cme arriving?
 Quoting: Luisport


Minor geomagnetic disturbance possibly caused by the big eruption Friday on the east limb. Glancing blow at Earth was expected last night.

Event Issue Date: 2012-11-16 09:12:16.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-11-19 21:51:38.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 17 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.5 Re
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Nacht im Walde

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11/20/2012 04:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
where did the new M flare come from?
 Quoting: Nacht im Walde


One on the backside 1611 I think it was and the last one from 1618 fully facing us.
 Quoting: whiteangel


was just posted on solarham:

Sunspot 1618 continues to expand in the northern hemisphere and is currently producing C-Class Solar flares. This region did also just produce a moderate M1.6 solar flare at 19:28 UTC Tuesday afternoon. This region could produce a stronger solar flare within the next 12-24 hours.

really fast growing spot atm
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 04:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SIDC seems to echo what I've been saying here:


COMMENT: NOAA ARs 1618 evolved into a beta gamma configuration and
produced several C-class flares, together with NOAA AR 1619. At 12:09
UT, SECCHI/COR2 on STEREO Ahead shows signs of what could possibly be an
Earth directed CME that erupted from/close to NOAA AR 1619. Shortly
after that, an M1.7 flare peaked at 12:41 UT. There is not enough data

yet in order to provide more information. NOAA AR 1618 has potential for
producing M-class flares. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected
to remain so.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

Well they may have been wrong about the quiet geomagnetic conditions.

SEEDS STEREO Ahead movie of CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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11/20/2012 05:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is Solarhams cme prediction model



[link to solarham.net]
shadasonic

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11/20/2012 05:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know if this is the same run as the one that shad posted earlier, but anyways here's the cygnet enlil model of a large geoffective CME [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] (surely related to the activity hugh has been posting about etc.)
 Quoting: madajs


Back on now and thats the one I was waiting for,bingo!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
madajs

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11/20/2012 05:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is Solarhams cme prediction model



[link to solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#

Just noticed that too, was checking for that to update. Shall be an interesting day :)

Edit: I have to say, looking at the circular and wedge plots for geoeffective enlil above, this looks like one of the messier ejection events i've seen of late. I see about 4 different waves (two of which will hit us). Throw in a solar wind stream to boot. No wonder the velocity prediction is so bumpy.

Last Edited by madajs on 11/20/2012 05:17 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
shadasonic

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11/20/2012 05:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I believe its on now, energy shifting SS activation our way, and we've got decent SS backside . We could get very busy!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Rising Son
Spirit Of The Wolf, Soul Of The Lion

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11/20/2012 05:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
If you guys who know this stuff and observe it everyday are interested, then I can't help but be fascinated. I know it's still early - but any predictions about the effect it will have?
"And God shall wipe away all tears from their eyes; and there shall be no more death, neither sorrow, nor crying, neither shall there be any more pain: for the former things are passed away." - Revelation 21:4

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miabelieves

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11/20/2012 05:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I believe its on now, energy shifting SS activation our way, and we've got decent SS backside . We could get very busy!
 Quoting: shadasonic


oh no, and they are giving another 48 reprieve on the bans...uuggghhhh
hopefully the suntards, says with love, will not be noticed.
Supporter of NIN's Solar Watch Thread
madajs

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11/20/2012 05:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
If you guys who know this stuff and observe it everyday are interested, then I can't help but be fascinated. I know it's still early - but any predictions about the effect it will have?
 Quoting: Rising Son

Weather predictions are always kind of futile, be that space weather or regular weather haha. This one doesn't look particularly dense (the part that's predicted to hit us, anyways) or fast, but it does look very complex. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a G2 storm out of it.

We won't know how hostile the polarity of it is until it hits ;)

popcorn

Last Edited by madajs on 11/20/2012 05:29 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
shadasonic

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11/20/2012 05:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
If you guys who know this stuff and observe it everyday are interested, then I can't help but be fascinated. I know it's still early - but any predictions about the effect it will have?
 Quoting: Rising Son

Weather predictions are always kind of futile, be that space weather or regular weather haha. This one doesn't look particularly dense (the part that's predicted to hit us, anyways) or fast, but it does look very complex. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a G2 storm out of it.

We won't know how hostile the polarity of it is until it hits ;)

popcorn
 Quoting: madajs


Its nice to be working with decent storms again, lets pray they stay nice, imagine if they all come around the corner and develop like 1618 has.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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11/20/2012 05:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I count 4 definite CME's [link to sdodata.oma.be] .



Hello by the way allsunhf

Edit:fuck it,doesn't matter.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/20/2012 05:46 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

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11/20/2012 05:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It will be interesting to see what 1620 does being in the southern hemisphere.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2012 05:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is Solarhams cme prediction model



[link to solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#

Just noticed that too, was checking for that to update. Shall be an interesting day :)

Edit: I have to say, looking at the circular and wedge plots for geoeffective enlil above, this looks like one of the messier ejection events i've seen of late. I see about 4 different waves (two of which will hit us). Throw in a solar wind stream to boot. No wonder the velocity prediction is so bumpy.
 Quoting: madajs


What if instead of Black Friday we have BLACKOUT FRIDAY. Jes sayin', LOL.

:11/20CME-enhance:
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Spittin'Cesium

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11/20/2012 05:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A cacophony of CME's - One on the Top-Left that me and Isis were discussing earlier that had already been going for around 7 Hours without separating from the Corona fully is still slowly flying away and the 1/2 earlier CME's that look like Type III/IV Halos and will be Geo-effective [link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] .

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/20/2012 05:53 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2012 05:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sunspots at 60 degress west longitude is the place to watch, according to NASA

proton storm can arrive in 30 minutes if originating from 60deg west long


A New Kind of Solar Storm (well, 2005)

[link to science.nasa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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11/20/2012 06:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It appears that Filament has set off a cascade within 1613,1614,1618 and 1619 [link to sdodata.oma.be] you can notice a drastic change in their relative Temps. - Also 1613 looks ready to expel pretty soon [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] as does the area and Filament around 1614.

A nice climb in X-Rays [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] something is gonna' have to give!
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


It certainly did!

Super Hot [link to sdodata.oma.be] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/20/2012 06:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] 1611 even : )

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/20/2012 06:19 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/20/2012 06:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A cacophony of CME's - One on the Top-Left that me and Isis were discussing earlier that had already been going for around 7 Hours without separating from the Corona fully is still slowly flying away and the 1/2 earlier CME's that look like Type III/IV Halos and will be Geo-effective [link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


The CME I mentioned that Isis and I were discussing that was/is super slow can be seen here [link to www.sidc.oma.be] at 11 on the Dial and beginning at 11:00(though it began even earlier and took forever to leave)here it is again,still not really moving [link to www.sidc.oma.be] and still [link to www.sidc.oma.be] and [link to www.sidc.oma.be] and slowly begins to 'let go' [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Basically,a very slow,long,strange event.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/20/2012 06:29 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1618 has been relegated back to Beta-Gamma from Beta-Gamma-Delta earlier,not sure if I agree but Solen are usually pretty spot on with their classifications [link to www.solen.info] though not always too up on spotting Earthbound Ejections.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/20/2012 06:29 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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United Kingdom
11/20/2012 06:31 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Side issue but is'nt the Calender everyone thinks Mayan is actually the Aztec Calendar!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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United Kingdom
11/20/2012 06:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Goodbye.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1