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SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)

 
shadasonic

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11/21/2012 10:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
BGD
 Quoting: TIMETOTAKEOVER 28220606


Yes indeed...with NOAA's official stamp of approval.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 327 Issued at 0030Z on 22 Nov 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1613 S24W69 203 0040 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1616 N19W28 160 0010 Dro 06 02 Beta
1618 N09E01 132 0300 Ekc 13 27 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1619 N10W39 172 0150 Hsx 08 06 Alpha
1620 S08E44 089 0020 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Multiple CMEs-2 bigguns today! Big data gaps and government holidays will attempt to keep us in the dark. Possible G3 storm Saturday???

NASA's cone model looks ridiculous. What the hell are THEY looking at?

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

SEEDS Movie of Earth-directed M3.5 flare/CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

....to be continued.....
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I thought the Nasa cone model was ajoke at first,or I had missed some smaller CMEs
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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11/21/2012 10:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
I spotted a large filament activation/eruption near 1619/1616 at 18:00-19:00z on 11/21. Very similar to the one which unleashed a full halo CME at us yesterday. It came about 2 1/2 hours after the M3.5 flare and went un-noticed by Lockheed-Solarsoft. I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere, but I believe it may be responsible for the 2nd big CME.

The event can be clearly seen on the Big Bear h-alpha movie (best to slow it down a click or two). After the M3.5 flare (near the beginning ), look to the right of center and you'll see an irregularly-shaped Hyder flare.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

SDO composite image of event:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

:1619hyder:

Here's the SEEDS movie I believe shows the resulting CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SOHO C2 Image of 2nd CME-

:11/21CME2:
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 10:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
sun alert sun alert heads up
10:56 PM something is gong on
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 10:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Thread: EQ 6.1 CHILE


tonight CHAT live Thread: GLPVC Presents - (Perma Guest) Douglas Dietrich Wed 11/21 @ 11pm est ON AIR LIVE NOW 11:01pm
Isis One

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11/21/2012 11:29 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
sun alert sun alert heads up
10:56 PM something is gong on
 Quoting: SeaPunk


Watcha pickin up on goes 6 hour looks uneventful
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 11:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
sun alert sun alert heads up
10:56 PM something is gong on
 Quoting: SeaPunk


Watcha pickin up on goes 6 hour looks uneventful
 Quoting: Isis One


if I told you... you wouldn't understand an laugh at me

watch something is coming in
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 11:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
its a theory im working on and so far has not been wrong its been right on the money

usually takes an hour or so to show up
Isis One

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11/21/2012 11:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
its a theory im working on and so far has not been wrong its been right on the money

usually takes an hour or so to show up
 Quoting: SeaPunk


OK, we'll keep an eye out for sure.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
RTS REDUX

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11/22/2012 12:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Do these really look that similar to each other or r my eyes screwing with me? I cant quote from this device but look at the sun spot rotated lice and then the Mayan smoke image
 Quoting: jusvstn 25435234


Your eyes aren't screwing with you, I see the same thing and have for a while now. It completely amazes me and I don't understand what it means... I am a rational, logical person and any effort I've made to counter-check myself to disprove it as psychological pattern adherence/psychosomatic have failed. Often the detail and movement is staggering.
 Quoting: aaronnoraa 26579616


that's a really good description and I agree 100%. The detail is especially remarkable on very large images. I'm sure alot of the details are similar although I have no idea what to call them (gnomes?) and I have no idea who to ask for a definitive answer. The results look similar whether it's a close up of a fennel plant (for example) or a far out shot of nebula's and galaxies. It really is kind of mind blowing at first.

I have no idea if they actually are 4d ..it's just a guess on my part.

I'd be fascinated to know for sure what it is.
Vita
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11/22/2012 01:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Happy Thanksgiving day everyone!
Vita
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11/22/2012 01:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Happy Thanksgiving day everyone!
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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11/22/2012 01:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Happy thanksgiving!
TheMacaroni

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11/22/2012 01:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Nothing I can say that you do not know.I like to check in on this page and see things are alright with our floating ember.Not feeling squirrely or anything.At the end of the month we have a lunar eclipse.We are about to get a double hit Geomagnetic storm and with 1618 still hot it would not be a good time to get a 3rd flash inside the storm.Happy Holidays NINz [link to www.youtube.com]
Isis One

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11/22/2012 02:04 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Tec is REALLY high right now where we just had two eatrthquakes in Pacific (2:05 EST)

[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]

[link to quakes.globalincidentmap.com]

Last Edited by Isis One on 11/22/2012 02:05 AM
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
Vesper33
Silver Pools of Light

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11/22/2012 02:53 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
So glad you are back Nin!!! You are missed when your away!!!

Happy Thanksgiving!!! I hope you and yours have a wonderful day!!!

hf
Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 03:51 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Heya Nin! :)

============
Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 99
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 21 2207 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted


Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Nov 22: None (Below G1) Nov 23: G2 (Moderate) Nov 24: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
==============
 Quoting: madajs


Never seen a warning graphed quite like this before .... looks like they are covering (their....) all their bases hf
madajs

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11/22/2012 04:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Models have updated to show the newest Earth bound CME

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] (cygnet enlil showing it's version of the new CME)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] (geoeffective enlil shows both the 11-20 and 11-21 geoeffective CMEs)

It's gonna be a mess all this stuff hitting us in quick succession. Shall be interesting.

popcorn
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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11/22/2012 05:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Models have updated to show the newest Earth bound CME

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] (cygnet enlil showing it's version of the new CME)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] (geoeffective enlil shows both the 11-20 and 11-21 geoeffective CMEs)

It's gonna be a mess all this stuff hitting us in quick succession. Shall be interesting.

popcorn
 Quoting: madajs


Lets hopefully get a G4 or G5 with these events. popcorn
Solar Guardian

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11/22/2012 06:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
That sunspot 1618 looks big. Will there be X-class flare the next few days, anyone? hiding
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 06:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
[link to www.prophecy.mx]
mtn_mang

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11/22/2012 07:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Happy turkey day!

i am thankful for all my solar thread friends :)
Tiny Trink

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11/22/2012 07:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Hello Everyone,

I would like to wish a very Happy Thanksgiving to all in the USA and very Thankful Thursday for all others.

May we pause a moment today to reflect on our many blessings both on this thread and in our personal lives.

Much Love to Ninz peeps and I am grateful to have you all as part of my world.


[link to www.youtube.com]



Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
shadasonic

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11/22/2012 08:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

looks as if 1618s polarity signatures are 'swapping' dominance



[link to www.n3kl.org]

1618 developed so fast between -60 and 0 longitude, but its M flares have died out. Either its gaining momentum for a big show or its shutting down, but either way......the SS have started gaining earthside development and I believe in the next 2 to 3 weeks we'll see development all the way through to our 60 degree magnetic 'portal', nins corner.If we have already developing SS either B or BG as they round the corner we will be in for one big LDE of our own as we may see some massive storms develop. This is all very interesting as we have been following this for months and now its all transpiring,our catalyst is bringing the party our way. Much love and respect to all!
Have a great thanksgiving,I'll be spending mine with two kids with the flu. I'll still get some turkey and sweet potato pie though.lol

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 11/22/2012 08:45 AM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 09:51 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good morning Sunnies sun


From Solen [link to www.solen.info]

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 19: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
November 20: A full halo CME was observed after noon following a filament eruption near AR 11619. This CME could reach Earth on November 23.
November 21: While most of the ejecta from the CME associated with the M3 event in AR 11618 was directed eastwards, components of the CME could be Earth directed

60-100% probability for M or X class flares.

From Iswa [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

1618 specifically 62% for an M and a 57% chance of an X

Looks like Space Weather warnings [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] are slyly being updated within past warnings on graph, and not so obvious. This one was updated Nov 22 0638 UTC. It looks the same as yesterdays, but worth a click periodically just the same to see if anything has changed.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 100
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 22 0638 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Nov 23: G1 (Minor) Nov 24: G2 (Moderate) Nov 25: None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: The timing and intensity of geomagnetic storming were revised based on updated data and subsequent analysis.
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Should be an interesting, note, not devastating, couple of days for those who are interested in the effects of moderate sized CMEs have on Earth, and our magnetosphere. As the suns activity is being reported more and more on MSM, we can expect more people to visit this thread.

Happy Thanksgiving to you all hf

:turkey:
NiNzrez (OP)

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11/22/2012 10:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
thanks for the warm welcome back everyone :)
sure does look like i got back just in time

NOAA forecasters give high chances for M and X flares for the next 48hrs
Chances for Flares on Nov 22-23
70% chance for M flare
30% chance for X flare


Sunspot AR1618 is 10 times wider than Earth
Any flares today would likely be Earth-directed as the sunspot is directly facing our planet
[link to spaceweather.com]


Happy Thanksgiving to all friends in the states :)
to all others, Happy high solar activity day hehe
shenue

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11/22/2012 10:52 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good Morning Everyone.

Happy Thanksgiving to all who celebrate it!!
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Tropicalgirl

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11/22/2012 11:00 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Have a gracious holiday dear FOG.... personally I am thankful for each of you and the wonderful exchange here. Lots to be grateful for today!
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 11:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 1982
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 22 1607 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 22 1545 UTC
Station: GOES13
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

spock
Hugh M Eye

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11/22/2012 12:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good morning Sunnies sun


From Solen [link to www.solen.info]

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 19: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
November 20: A full halo CME was observed after noon following a filament eruption near AR 11619. This CME could reach Earth on November 23.
November 21: While most of the ejecta from the CME associated with the M3 event in AR 11618 was directed eastwards, components of the CME could be Earth directed

60-100% probability for M or X class flares.

From Iswa [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]


Happy Thanksgiving to you all hf

turkey
 Quoting: TS66


Greetings, TS and everyone. The STEREO data gaps of 7 hours or more have crippled our ability to assess these CMEs properly. However, I must express my disagreement with some of the experts. What CACTus indicates as a Type II halo yesterday appears to me to be a full halo. This also makes sense as the M3.5 flare was almost directly facing Earth. As I mentioned before, there was a large filament eruption near 1619 in the NW which produced the other CME which appears on the CACTus movie at approx. 19:00z on. I believe this second one was glimpsed by STEREO A for 1 single frame (I can't find any STEREO data for the first CME). Unless NASA/NOAA has special access to the STEREO data, they're pissing in the dark, too.

It does appear from the LASCO images that the densest cloud of plasma went eastward on the first CME and westward on the 2nd CME. However, both were certainly Earth-facing and we can't see what's coming straight ahead at us. That's the whole purpose for the STEREO spacecraft (duh!). The official speed estimates are crude guesses as are the CME arrival calendars and cone models, IMO. NASA and NOAA are quickly catching up to FEMA in the Incompetence Rankings, LOL.

Scroll slowly through this CACTus movie to see both events described above--full halo and then energetic cme NW-

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Only Image from STEREO A between 14:24 and 23:59z-
:11/21CME:
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 12:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Morning Hugh hf

At the very least a Halo 3. Lots of activity independent of the M flare in the west I'm assuming they are accounting for.

Well we all read the disclaimer Madjas linked for us from NASA.


There's gonna be data gaps for a long time, soooooo

:datagap:

get used to it, gaah


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