SOLAR WATCH * 255 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

Happy Thanksgiving day everyone!

Happy Thanksgiving day everyone!

Happy thanksgiving!

Nothing I can say that you do not know.I like to check in on this page and see things are alright with our floating ember.Not feeling squirrely or anything.At the end of the month we have a lunar eclipse.We are about to get a double hit Geomagnetic storm and with 1618 still hot it would not be a good time to get a 3rd flash inside the storm.Happy Holidays NINz [link to www.youtube.com]

Tec is REALLY high right now where we just had two eatrthquakes in Pacific (2:05 EST)

[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]

[link to quakes.globalincidentmap.com]

Last Edited by Isis One on 11/22/2012 02:05 AM

So glad you are back Nin!!! You are missed when your away!!!

Happy Thanksgiving!!! I hope you and yours have a wonderful day!!!

Never seen a warning graphed quite like this before .... looks like they are covering (their....) all their bases

Models have updated to show the newest Earth bound CME

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] (cygnet enlil showing it's version of the new CME)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] (geoeffective enlil shows both the 11-20 and 11-21 geoeffective CMEs)

It's gonna be a mess all this stuff hitting us in quick succession. Shall be interesting.

Lets hopefully get a G4 or G5 with these events.

That sunspot 1618 looks big. Will there be X-class flare the next few days, anyone?

[link to www.prophecy.mx]

Happy turkey day!

i am thankful for all my solar thread friends :)

Hello Everyone,

I would like to wish a very Happy Thanksgiving to all in the USA and very Thankful Thursday for all others.

May we pause a moment today to reflect on our many blessings both on this thread and in our personal lives.

Much Love to Ninz peeps and I am grateful to have you all as part of my world.


[link to www.youtube.com]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

looks as if 1618s polarity signatures are 'swapping' dominance



[link to www.n3kl.org]

1618 developed so fast between -60 and 0 longitude, but its M flares have died out. Either its gaining momentum for a big show or its shutting down, but either way......the SS have started gaining earthside development and I believe in the next 2 to 3 weeks we'll see development all the way through to our 60 degree magnetic 'portal', nins corner.If we have already developing SS either B or BG as they round the corner we will be in for one big LDE of our own as we may see some massive storms develop. This is all very interesting as we have been following this for months and now its all transpiring,our catalyst is bringing the party our way. Much love and respect to all!
Have a great thanksgiving,I'll be spending mine with two kids with the flu. I'll still get some turkey and sweet potato pie though.lol

Last Edited by shadasonic on 11/22/2012 08:45 AM

Good morning Sunnies


From Solen [link to www.solen.info]

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 19: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
November 20: A full halo CME was observed after noon following a filament eruption near AR 11619. This CME could reach Earth on November 23.
November 21: While most of the ejecta from the CME associated with the M3 event in AR 11618 was directed eastwards, components of the CME could be Earth directed

60-100% probability for M or X class flares.

From Iswa [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

1618 specifically 62% for an M and a 57% chance of an X

Looks like Space Weather warnings [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] are slyly being updated within past warnings on graph, and not so obvious. This one was updated Nov 22 0638 UTC. It looks the same as yesterdays, but worth a click periodically just the same to see if anything has changed.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 100
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 22 0638 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Nov 23: G1 (Minor) Nov 24: G2 (Moderate) Nov 25: None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: The timing and intensity of geomagnetic storming were revised based on updated data and subsequent analysis.
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Should be an interesting, note, not devastating, couple of days for those who are interested in the effects of moderate sized CMEs have on Earth, and our magnetosphere. As the suns activity is being reported more and more on MSM, we can expect more people to visit this thread.

Happy Thanksgiving to you all

:turkey:

thanks for the warm welcome back everyone :)
sure does look like i got back just in time

NOAA forecasters give high chances for M and X flares for the next 48hrs
Chances for Flares on Nov 22-23
70% chance for M flare
30% chance for X flare

Sunspot AR1618 is 10 times wider than Earth
Any flares today would likely be Earth-directed as the sunspot is directly facing our planet
[link to spaceweather.com]


Happy Thanksgiving to all friends in the states :)
to all others, Happy high solar activity day hehe

Good Morning Everyone.

Happy Thanksgiving to all who celebrate it!!

Have a gracious holiday dear FOG.... personally I am thankful for each of you and the wonderful exchange here. Lots to be grateful for today!

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 1982
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 22 1607 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 22 1545 UTC
Station: GOES13
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Greetings, TS and everyone. The STEREO data gaps of 7 hours or more have crippled our ability to assess these CMEs properly. However, I must express my disagreement with some of the experts. What CACTus indicates as a Type II halo yesterday appears to me to be a full halo. This also makes sense as the M3.5 flare was almost directly facing Earth. As I mentioned before, there was a large filament eruption near 1619 in the NW which produced the other CME which appears on the CACTus movie at approx. 19:00z on. I believe this second one was glimpsed by STEREO A for 1 single frame (I can't find any STEREO data for the first CME). Unless NASA/NOAA has special access to the STEREO data, they're pissing in the dark, too.

It does appear from the LASCO images that the densest cloud of plasma went eastward on the first CME and westward on the 2nd CME. However, both were certainly Earth-facing and we can't see what's coming straight ahead at us. That's the whole purpose for the STEREO spacecraft (duh!). The official speed estimates are crude guesses as are the CME arrival calendars and cone models, IMO. NASA and NOAA are quickly catching up to FEMA in the Incompetence Rankings, LOL.

Scroll slowly through this CACTus movie to see both events described above--full halo and then energetic cme NW-

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Only Image from STEREO A between 14:24 and 23:59z-
:11/21CME:

Morning Hugh

At the very least a Halo 3. Lots of activity independent of the M flare in the west I'm assuming they are accounting for.

Well we all read the disclaimer Madjas linked for us from NASA.


There's gonna be data gaps for a long time, soooooo

:datagap:

get used to it,

What is this Hugh ???

0057|2012/11/22 11:12| 01 | 075| 104| 1894| 0143| 1491| 2022| II
0056|2012/11/22 00:48| 04 | 294| 066| 0508| 0528| 0139| 1785|
0055|2012/11/22 00:36| 05 | 009| 056| 0143| 0024| 0134| 0214|

I don't see any corresponding flare on GOES for CME 0057 ??


[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

I looked at that and I believe it's a false data error. Sometimes CACTus, which is an imperfect computer program, give false readings. Maybe due to the bad image from SOHO in that time period triggering a sensor in the program.

These data gaps seem to be affecting the scientists as well as the public. The STEREO "J-plots" used in calculating CME speeds is littered with giant data gaps.

SECCHI J-Plot data:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Gaps are also mentioned once again in the SIDC Comments-

COMMENT: NOAA AR 1618 keeps evolving and it has now beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. It produced an M3.5 flare with peak at 15:30 UT
on November 21, related to a halo CME first seen at 16:12 UT by LASCO/C2
with a speed of 560 km/s (calculated with LASCO/C2 data, not enough
STEREO/COR2 data is available for calculating speeds). Even though the
bulk of the material seems to be directed towards the north-east, an
encounter with the Earth can be expected by November 24 with
corresponding elevated geomagnetic conditions (probably up to minor
storm levels). This active region will likely produce more M- and
probably (but less likely) X- class flares. Geomagnetic conditions have
been quiet and expected to remain so until the arrival of the CME from
November 20, late on November 23. Active to minor storm conditions (with
possible isolated major storm periods) are expected by then.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

A lot of guesswork going on now....

Ooops, I may have been wrong there. Upon second analysis of SDO images, I see a small filament eruption occurred in the SE at 09:11z. There could be ejecta from there, but not geoeffective IMO.

SDO Image:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

H-alpha movie (end of loop):

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Interesting due to hit on americas busiest shopping day

Happy Thanksgiving all! ..slips back in to lurk mode

Awesome thanks. I didn't realize it recorded data for CME's that didn't show up on GOES. Handy

There was also a link on glp yesterday? that showed a weather/cloud system that looked amazingly similar. And I fully understand that when you manipulate a photo of any kind and merge the mirrored images that you will see something different in it as it becomes more symetrical, but for all three of these natural images to show nearly identical images just amazes me and makes me go hmmmm. I wish i could find the link, but my computer is crapping out on me, and without being able to log in I can't get to my active threads.

was the thread about this video?



that's what got the discussion going about it on this thread. it was posted on pg. 1465.

Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 255 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) (Page 1465)

AccuweatherAstronomy said that to expect G3 storms on the 24th.

Last Edited by #Geomagnetic_Storm# on 11/22/2012 03:47 PM