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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 12:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Morning Hugh hf

At the very least a Halo 3. Lots of activity independent of the M flare in the west I'm assuming they are accounting for.

Well we all read the disclaimer Madjas linked for us from NASA.


There's gonna be data gaps for a long time, soooooo

:datagap:

get used to it, gaah
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 01:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is this Hugh ???

0057|2012/11/22 11:12| 01 | 075| 104| 1894| 0143| 1491| 2022| II
0056|2012/11/22 00:48| 04 | 294| 066| 0508| 0528| 0139| 1785|
0055|2012/11/22 00:36| 05 | 009| 056| 0143| 0024| 0134| 0214|

I don't see any corresponding flare on GOES for CME 0057 ??


[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Hugh M Eye

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11/22/2012 01:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is this Hugh ???

0057|2012/11/22 11:12| 01 | 075| 104| 1894| 0143| 1491| 2022| II
0056|2012/11/22 00:48| 04 | 294| 066| 0508| 0528| 0139| 1785|
0055|2012/11/22 00:36| 05 | 009| 056| 0143| 0024| 0134| 0214|

I don't see any corresponding flare on GOES for CME 0057 ??


[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
 Quoting: TS66


I looked at that and I believe it's a false data error. Sometimes CACTus, which is an imperfect computer program, give false readings. Maybe due to the bad image from SOHO in that time period triggering a sensor in the program.

These data gaps seem to be affecting the scientists as well as the public. The STEREO "J-plots" used in calculating CME speeds is littered with giant data gaps.

SECCHI J-Plot data:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Gaps are also mentioned once again in the SIDC Comments-

COMMENT: NOAA AR 1618 keeps evolving and it has now beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. It produced an M3.5 flare with peak at 15:30 UT
on November 21, related to a halo CME first seen at 16:12 UT by LASCO/C2
with a speed of 560 km/s (calculated with LASCO/C2 data, not enough
STEREO/COR2 data is available for calculating speeds)
. Even though the
bulk of the material seems to be directed towards the north-east, an
encounter with the Earth can be expected by November 24 with
corresponding elevated geomagnetic conditions (probably up to minor
storm levels
). This active region will likely produce more M- and
probably (but less likely) X- class flares. Geomagnetic conditions have
been quiet and expected to remain so until the arrival of the CME from
November 20, late on November 23. Active to minor storm conditions (with
possible isolated major storm periods) are expected by then.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

A lot of guesswork going on now....
Hugh M Eye

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11/22/2012 01:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is this Hugh ???

0057|2012/11/22 11:12| 01 | 075| 104| 1894| 0143| 1491| 2022| II
0056|2012/11/22 00:48| 04 | 294| 066| 0508| 0528| 0139| 1785|
0055|2012/11/22 00:36| 05 | 009| 056| 0143| 0024| 0134| 0214|

I don't see any corresponding flare on GOES for CME 0057 ??


[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
 Quoting: TS66


Ooops, I may have been wrong there. Upon second analysis of SDO images, I see a small filament eruption occurred in the SE at 09:11z. There could be ejecta from there, but not geoeffective IMO.

SDO Image:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

H-alpha movie (end of loop):

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 01:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Interesting due to hit on americas busiest shopping day
C3Music
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11/22/2012 01:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Happy Thanksgiving all! ..slips back in to lurk mode
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 02:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is this Hugh ???

0057|2012/11/22 11:12| 01 | 075| 104| 1894| 0143| 1491| 2022| II
0056|2012/11/22 00:48| 04 | 294| 066| 0508| 0528| 0139| 1785|
0055|2012/11/22 00:36| 05 | 009| 056| 0143| 0024| 0134| 0214|

I don't see any corresponding flare on GOES for CME 0057 ??


[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
 Quoting: TS66


Ooops, I may have been wrong there. Upon second analysis of SDO images, I see a small filament eruption occurred in the SE at 09:11z. There could be ejecta from there, but not geoeffective IMO.

SDO Image:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

H-alpha movie (end of loop):

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Awesome thanks. I didn't realize it recorded data for CME's that didn't show up on GOES. Handy hf
jusvistn
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11/22/2012 03:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Do these really look that similar to each other or r my eyes screwing with me? I cant quote from this device but look at the sun spot rotated lice and then the Mayan smoke image
 Quoting: jusvstn 25435234


Your eyes aren't screwing with you, I see the same thing and have for a while now. It completely amazes me and I don't understand what it means... I am a rational, logical person and any effort I've made to counter-check myself to disprove it as psychological pattern adherence/psychosomatic have failed. Often the detail and movement is staggering.
 Quoting: aaronnoraa 26579616


There was also a link on glp yesterday? that showed a weather/cloud system that looked amazingly similar. And I fully understand that when you manipulate a photo of any kind and merge the mirrored images that you will see something different in it as it becomes more symetrical, but for all three of these natural images to show nearly identical images just amazes me and makes me go hmmmm. I wish i could find the link, but my computer is crapping out on me, and without being able to log in I can't get to my active threads.
RTS REDUX

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Do these really look that similar to each other or r my eyes screwing with me? I cant quote from this device but look at the sun spot rotated lice and then the Mayan smoke image
 Quoting: jusvstn 25435234


Your eyes aren't screwing with you, I see the same thing and have for a while now. It completely amazes me and I don't understand what it means... I am a rational, logical person and any effort I've made to counter-check myself to disprove it as psychological pattern adherence/psychosomatic have failed. Often the detail and movement is staggering.
 Quoting: aaronnoraa 26579616


There was also a link on glp yesterday? that showed a weather/cloud system that looked amazingly similar. And I fully understand that when you manipulate a photo of any kind and merge the mirrored images that you will see something different in it as it becomes more symetrical, but for all three of these natural images to show nearly identical images just amazes me and makes me go hmmmm. I wish i could find the link, but my computer is crapping out on me, and without being able to log in I can't get to my active threads.
 Quoting: jusvistn 28264917


was the thread about this video?


 Quoting: c o s m o g e n e s i s 27409326


that's what got the discussion going about it on this thread. it was posted on pg. 1465.

Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) (Page 1465)
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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11/22/2012 03:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AccuweatherAstronomy said that to expect G3 storms on the 24th.

Last Edited by #Geomagnetic_Storm# on 11/22/2012 03:47 PM
Isis One

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11/22/2012 04:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Models have updated to show the newest Earth bound CME

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] (cygnet enlil showing it's version of the new CME)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] (geoeffective enlil shows both the 11-20 and 11-21 geoeffective CMEs)

It's gonna be a mess all this stuff hitting us in quick succession. Shall be interesting.

popcorn
 Quoting: madajs


Thanks madge, I don't think I've ever seen them post two together, glad they could do that. Looks like it gets nastier after it passes earth. So far today we're out of danger today for a cannbal cme complicating things.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
madajs

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11/22/2012 04:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AccuweatherAstronomy said that to expect G3 storms on the 24th.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#

It wouldn't surprise me. By my count (using the velocity plot of the geoeffective enlil model ( [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] ) we have 4 different CMEs that are going to hit Earth at roughly the same time. We may not see 4 separate impact events due to cannibalism, but still that's a very tangled mess headed our way.

As TS66 put it nicely, this isn't a scary event, but lots of popcorn for us here at solar watch considering how quiet things have been for long stretches :)

popcorn

Last Edited by madajs on 11/22/2012 04:29 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Blazer
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11/22/2012 04:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I know alot of folks here have flares affect them but this happened to me an is some messed up Quintin Teriteno shit!

Wierd ass dream! Quintin Toritino style crazy shit!
So I'm sitting in this shit hole bar having a drink with my cusin when this black midget comes up and starts taunting me. I try to blow it of then the little bastard punches me in the nuts! So I beat the we man down and my cusin yells for me to get out before the cops show up. So I run out and jump in my F350 4x4 monster bugout truck and as I start it I feel someone jump in the back. So I floor it and look in the mirror to see what I left behind and I see 1/2dozen midgets rolling around. So I tear ass through the suburbs and every turn has midgets flowing into the streets trying to stop me. I just nail the gas horn blowing and I can hear the thuds on my skid plates. As I round the corner for the interstate I se a motorcycle cob waiting by the entrance ramp and take a sharp turn into a vacant field and ditch in the creek grabbing my bugout bag on the way out....
The I wake up to my phone alerting me of an "M" flare! What the fuck?
Isis One

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What intuitions are you guys getting about 1618? Is it brewing up a big one (X) or do you think its peetered out due to the peetering out effect? I've been feeling she has an X in her, nothing dangerous though just enough to accelerate all good changes. Happy Thanksgiving Everyone, I'm off to dinner in a little while, can't wait!!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
aaronnoraa
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11/22/2012 05:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Do these really look that similar to each other or r my eyes screwing with me? I cant quote from this device but look at the sun spot rotated lice and then the Mayan smoke image
 Quoting: jusvstn 25435234


Your eyes aren't screwing with you, I see the same thing and have for a while now. It completely amazes me and I don't understand what it means... I am a rational, logical person and any effort I've made to counter-check myself to disprove it as psychological pattern adherence/psychosomatic have failed. Often the detail and movement is staggering.
 Quoting: aaronnoraa 26579616


There was also a link on glp yesterday? that showed a weather/cloud system that looked amazingly similar. And I fully understand that when you manipulate a photo of any kind and merge the mirrored images that you will see something different in it as it becomes more symetrical, but for all three of these natural images to show nearly identical images just amazes me and makes me go hmmmm. I wish i could find the link, but my computer is crapping out on me, and without being able to log in I can't get to my active threads.
 Quoting: jusvistn 28264917


I see these clearly without any mirroring/flipping.. it is consistent with other structural adherence that I have noticed, ie. strong triangular lattice of plasma (often with unexplainable triangular structure *vertically* as well, forming 3-D pyramids on and over the sun's surface) with synchronous structure in out local cloud systems matching that on the sun. It seems to me that the lattice structure/pattern of the energy from the sun in some way directly influences or depicts the organization of our dynamical systems here on earth. If this is true, the implications are downright groundbreaking.
aaronnoraa
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11/22/2012 05:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I know alot of folks here have flares affect them but this happened to me an is some messed up Quintin Teriteno shit!

Wierd ass dream! Quintin Toritino style crazy shit!
So I'm sitting in this shit hole bar having a drink with my cusin when this black midget comes up and starts taunting me. I try to blow it of then the little bastard punches me in the nuts! So I beat the we man down and my cusin yells for me to get out before the cops show up. So I run out and jump in my F350 4x4 monster bugout truck and as I start it I feel someone jump in the back. So I floor it and look in the mirror to see what I left behind and I see 1/2dozen midgets rolling around. So I tear ass through the suburbs and every turn has midgets flowing into the streets trying to stop me. I just nail the gas horn blowing and I can hear the thuds on my skid plates. As I round the corner for the interstate I se a motorcycle cob waiting by the entrance ramp and take a sharp turn into a vacant field and ditch in the creek grabbing my bugout bag on the way out....
The I wake up to my phone alerting me of an "M" flare! What the fuck?
 Quoting: Blazer 28165766


LOL
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunspot 1618 is in a state of decay. And no longer a threat for strong solar flares.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunspot 1618 is in a state of decay. And no longer a threat for strong solar flares.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


grumpy2 Nooooooo! I wanted my X100 Flare.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunspot 1618 is in a state of decay. And no longer a threat for strong solar flares.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


grumpy2 Nooooooo! I wanted my X100 Flare.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Where did you read that ???
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunspot 1618 is in a state of decay. And no longer a threat for strong solar flares.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


grumpy2 Nooooooo! I wanted my X100 Flare.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Where did you read that ???
 Quoting: TS66


Solarhams Facebook page.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunspot 1618 is in a state of decay. And no longer a threat for strong solar flares.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


grumpy2 Nooooooo! I wanted my X100 Flare.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Where did you read that ???
 Quoting: TS66


Solarhams Facebook page.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


I'm surprised .... not that it may not be a possibility that it might be decaying, but that it would be considered a dud already.

1618 punched out a couple Ms as just a BG .... you never know.

Here's a nice pic of it and it's continued complexities @ 23:00

:1618:

You can still even see the Delta region in the middle.
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1618 has been morphing rapidly each day since its original formation. Its leading edge seems to have recently weakened at the same time the trailing spots have strengthened. It still remains a large and potentially violent region. Usually when NOAA and others take notice and predict possible X-flares it's the kiss of death (or at least decay). They call it the "GLP Effect", haha.

Nov. 20, 2012-
:1618-11/21:

Nov. 21, 2012-
:1618ugly:

Nov. 22, 2012-
:11/22-1618:

Latest HMI hi-res Intensitygram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


grumpy2 Nooooooo! I wanted my X100 Flare.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Where did you read that ???
 Quoting: TS66


Solarhams Facebook page.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


I'm surprised .... not that it may not be a possibility that it might be decaying, but that it would be considered a dud already.

1618 punched out a couple Ms as just a BG .... you never know.

Here's a nice pic of it @ 23:00

:1618:
 Quoting: TS66


I hope they are wrong. But we will see.
shadasonic

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

looks as if 1618s polarity signatures are 'swapping' dominance



[link to www.n3kl.org]

1618 developed so fast between -60 and 0 longitude, but its M flares have died out. Either its gaining momentum for a big show or its shutting down, but either way......the SS have started gaining earthside development and I believe in the next 2 to 3 weeks we'll see development all the way through to our 60 degree magnetic 'portal', nins corner.If we have already developing SS either B or BG as they round the corner we will be in for one big LDE of our own as we may see some massive storms develop. This is all very interesting as we have been following this for months and now its all transpiring,our catalyst is bringing the party our way. Much love and respect to all!
Have a great thanksgiving,I'll be spending mine with two kids with the flu. I'll still get some turkey and sweet potato pie though.lol
 Quoting: shadasonic


1618 and 1619 stayed active and developed 60 degrees farther in earthside than any SS in months , I expected them to die out wasn't exactly sure when. The next round of SS have the potential to develop even further. Like we've said the next two weeks will play this out one way or the other. Gabe and whiteangel and I have been following this very close and its like clock work.

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 11/22/2012 08:29 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

looks as if 1618s polarity signatures are 'swapping' dominance



[link to www.n3kl.org]

1618 developed so fast between -60 and 0 longitude, but its M flares have died out. Either its gaining momentum for a big show or its shutting down, but either way......the SS have started gaining earthside development and I believe in the next 2 to 3 weeks we'll see development all the way through to our 60 degree magnetic 'portal', nins corner.If we have already developing SS either B or BG as they round the corner we will be in for one big LDE of our own as we may see some massive storms develop. This is all very interesting as we have been following this for months and now its all transpiring,our catalyst is bringing the party our way. Much love and respect to all!
Have a great thanksgiving,I'll be spending mine with two kids with the flu. I'll still get some turkey and sweet potato pie though.lol
 Quoting: shadasonic


1618 and 1619 stayed active and developed 60 degrees farther in earthside than any SS in months , I expected them to die out wasn't exactly sure when. The next round of SS have the potential to develop even further. Like we've said the next two weeks will play this out one way or the other. Gabe and whiteangel and I have been following this very close and its like clock work.
 Quoting: shadasonic


Jury is still out for me ... wink

Hope you had a wonderful day with your family Shada hf

Get good sleep all
Hugh M Eye

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11/22/2012 09:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Still B-G-D says NOAA-

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 328 Issued at 0030Z on 23 Nov 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1613 S24W83 203 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1616 N19W42 160 0030 Dro 10 04 Beta
1618 N08W13 133 0350 Ekc 13 30 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1619 N11W51 171 0150 Dao 10 07 Beta
1620 S12E30 090 0060 Hsx 05 01 Alpha

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Here again are the NASA cone model cygnets for 2 Earthbound CMEs. I and others here suspect 1 or 2 more are sandwiched in there somewhere.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
RTS REDUX

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11/23/2012 12:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Some interesting structures here today, any ideas what they might be?

[link to im1.shutterfly.com]

[link to im1.shutterfly.com]

[link to im1.shutterfly.com]

[link to im1.shutterfly.com]
 Quoting: aaronnoraa 26579616


every feature is listed here

[link to www.lmsal.com]

it's takes some getting used to but it's not that difficult.

btw..welcome back NiNzrez! hf
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


My computer won't let me connect, :(

Edit, I see your comment RT, I'll try it later, thanks
 Quoting: Isis One


the HEK search is still down as of now at that link but if you click home there is a video tutorial on how to use it.

you can access HEK right now on Jhelioviewer if you have it downloaded. Just click HEK events.

you can see what it looks like on this tutorial

[link to www.youtube.com]
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 12:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Welcome back NiNz!worship

faints

I see some awesome Solar Reporting the last few pages,great stuff folkssunhf

So,is to be a Black Solar Friday or what!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunspot 1618 is in a state of decay. And no longer a threat for strong solar flares.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


grumpy2 Nooooooo! I wanted my X100 Flare.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Where did you read that ???
 Quoting: TS66


Solarhams Facebook page.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


I didn't read that anywhere. I just made it up because that is what I want.
Spittin'Cesium

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Cactus got this one a little wrong hey [link to www.sidc.oma.be] ?

I see a Type III followed by a Type II and then from the North-West a very fast spray like ejection,pretty awesome that spray thing is,what-ever it is - I don't know if that type of ejection has it's own name(the 'spray-like' One) - Anyhoo' - reading through it appears Hugh/66 have covered most all bases in terms of mis-identified CME's,again some great work folks!

Hope all are goodhf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1


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