SOLAR WATCH * 255 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

Thanks madge, I don't think I've ever seen them post two together, glad they could do that. Looks like it gets nastier after it passes earth. So far today we're out of danger today for a cannbal cme complicating things.

It wouldn't surprise me. By my count (using the velocity plot of the geoeffective enlil model ( [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] ) we have 4 different CMEs that are going to hit Earth at roughly the same time. We may not see 4 separate impact events due to cannibalism, but still that's a very tangled mess headed our way.

As TS66 put it nicely, this isn't a scary event, but lots of popcorn for us here at solar watch considering how quiet things have been for long stretches :)



Last Edited by madajs on 11/22/2012 04:29 PM

I know alot of folks here have flares affect them but this happened to me an is some messed up Quintin Teriteno shit!

Wierd ass dream! Quintin Toritino style crazy shit!
So I'm sitting in this shit hole bar having a drink with my cusin when this black midget comes up and starts taunting me. I try to blow it of then the little bastard punches me in the nuts! So I beat the we man down and my cusin yells for me to get out before the cops show up. So I run out and jump in my F350 4x4 monster bugout truck and as I start it I feel someone jump in the back. So I floor it and look in the mirror to see what I left behind and I see 1/2dozen midgets rolling around. So I tear ass through the suburbs and every turn has midgets flowing into the streets trying to stop me. I just nail the gas horn blowing and I can hear the thuds on my skid plates. As I round the corner for the interstate I se a motorcycle cob waiting by the entrance ramp and take a sharp turn into a vacant field and ditch in the creek grabbing my bugout bag on the way out....
The I wake up to my phone alerting me of an "M" flare! What the fuck?

What intuitions are you guys getting about 1618? Is it brewing up a big one (X) or do you think its peetered out due to the peetering out effect? I've been feeling she has an X in her, nothing dangerous though just enough to accelerate all good changes. Happy Thanksgiving Everyone, I'm off to dinner in a little while, can't wait!!

I see these clearly without any mirroring/flipping.. it is consistent with other structural adherence that I have noticed, ie. strong triangular lattice of plasma (often with unexplainable triangular structure *vertically* as well, forming 3-D pyramids on and over the sun's surface) with synchronous structure in out local cloud systems matching that on the sun. It seems to me that the lattice structure/pattern of the energy from the sun in some way directly influences or depicts the organization of our dynamical systems here on earth. If this is true, the implications are downright groundbreaking.

LOL

Sunspot 1618 is in a state of decay. And no longer a threat for strong solar flares.

Nooooooo! I wanted my X100 Flare.

Where did you read that ???

Solarhams Facebook page.

I'm surprised .... not that it may not be a possibility that it might be decaying, but that it would be considered a dud already.

1618 punched out a couple Ms as just a BG .... you never know.

Here's a nice pic of it and it's continued complexities @ 23:00

:1618:

You can still even see the Delta region in the middle.

AR1618 has been morphing rapidly each day since its original formation. Its leading edge seems to have recently weakened at the same time the trailing spots have strengthened. It still remains a large and potentially violent region. Usually when NOAA and others take notice and predict possible X-flares it's the kiss of death (or at least decay). They call it the "GLP Effect", haha.

Nov. 20, 2012-
:1618-11/21:

Nov. 21, 2012-
:1618ugly:

Nov. 22, 2012-
:11/22-1618:

Latest HMI hi-res Intensitygram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

I hope they are wrong. But we will see.

1618 and 1619 stayed active and developed 60 degrees farther in earthside than any SS in months , I expected them to die out wasn't exactly sure when. The next round of SS have the potential to develop even further. Like we've said the next two weeks will play this out one way or the other. Gabe and whiteangel and I have been following this very close and its like clock work.

Last Edited by shadasonic on 11/22/2012 08:29 PM

Jury is still out for me ...

Hope you had a wonderful day with your family Shada

Get good sleep all

Still B-G-D says NOAA-

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 328 Issued at 0030Z on 23 Nov 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1613 S24W83 203 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1616 N19W42 160 0030 Dro 10 04 Beta
1618 N08W13 133 0350 Ekc 13 30 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1619 N11W51 171 0150 Dao 10 07 Beta
1620 S12E30 090 0060 Hsx 05 01 Alpha

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Here again are the NASA cone model cygnets for 2 Earthbound CMEs. I and others here suspect 1 or 2 more are sandwiched in there somewhere.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

the HEK search is still down as of now at that link but if you click home there is a video tutorial on how to use it.

you can access HEK right now on Jhelioviewer if you have it downloaded. Just click HEK events.

you can see what it looks like on this tutorial

[link to www.youtube.com]

Welcome back NiNz!



I see some awesome Solar Reporting the last few pages,great stuff folks

So,is to be a Black Solar Friday or what!?

I didn't read that anywhere. I just made it up because that is what I want.

Cactus got this one a little wrong hey [link to www.sidc.oma.be] ?

I see a Type III followed by a Type II and then from the North-West a very fast spray like ejection,pretty awesome that spray thing is,what-ever it is - I don't know if that type of ejection has it's own name(the 'spray-like' One) - Anyhoo' - reading through it appears Hugh/66 have covered most all bases in terms of mis-identified CME's,again some great work folks!

Hope all are good

I'm not even going to bother linking any one in particular,all I will say is wow,that's a lot of CME's [link to www.sidc.oma.be] wow.

I think there will be lots of CMEs in the whole month of December 2012, SC.

X-Rays at B3(ish) [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] that is quite low,the lowest for around a Week at least - will 1618 produce any more yet?

Maybe just a dying goodbye kiss before disappearing over the West limb perhaps!?

Hello SG : )

We've just had a fair few as it is,and prior to those I had been keeping tabs on other smaller CME's via the SDO 193 Angstroms that had appeared to of not been notched up as being Geo-effective,though they appeared to me as being such.

Basically,there is already a lot of Space-Weather on it's way,any more could spell for some incredible Storming!

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/23/2012 12:37 AM

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

How is it a developing BG SS gives us nice M flares, goes BGD, then dies. The energy is being drawn convectively throughout the sun , has been now for 4 months but its coming our way! Peace and good night to all!

Last Edited by shadasonic on 11/23/2012 12:45 AM

Haha I wish you the best of luck with that one ;)

Erm,on this image of 1618 from Solen,what is this surrounding the trailer spot [link to www.solen.info] ?

Is that someones' Marker-Pen or is that a genuine feature from Yesterday of the region?

Actually,just figured it out,they were trying to separate 2059(area just behind 1618) [link to www.solen.info] from the overall Magnetic structure of the beast,1618.

So it is Marker-Pen : )

She did let off a few large Flares that would have helped weaken the overall complexity of the Group from BGD to BG,though Solen still has 1618 as BGD [link to www.solen.info] I think 1618 has divided into two regions,the trailing area is Numbered as 2059 and should get a SS Number in the following Hours.

Hello and Good Night Shada : )

.

Just in case you don't have this one bookmarked Shada I thought I'd share this with you [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] which can be accessed through here along with the other models we use [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

Rice and Peas Bro'.

The Southern Coronal Hole looks like it is holding the Sun in a Egg-cup [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] : )