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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 06:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunspot 1618 is in a state of decay. And no longer a threat for strong solar flares.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


grumpy2 Nooooooo! I wanted my X100 Flare.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Where did you read that ???
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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11/22/2012 06:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunspot 1618 is in a state of decay. And no longer a threat for strong solar flares.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


grumpy2 Nooooooo! I wanted my X100 Flare.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Where did you read that ???
 Quoting: TS66


Solarhams Facebook page.
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 06:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunspot 1618 is in a state of decay. And no longer a threat for strong solar flares.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


grumpy2 Nooooooo! I wanted my X100 Flare.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Where did you read that ???
 Quoting: TS66


Solarhams Facebook page.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


I'm surprised .... not that it may not be a possibility that it might be decaying, but that it would be considered a dud already.

1618 punched out a couple Ms as just a BG .... you never know.

Here's a nice pic of it and it's continued complexities @ 23:00

:1618:

You can still even see the Delta region in the middle.
Hugh M Eye

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11/22/2012 06:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1618 has been morphing rapidly each day since its original formation. Its leading edge seems to have recently weakened at the same time the trailing spots have strengthened. It still remains a large and potentially violent region. Usually when NOAA and others take notice and predict possible X-flares it's the kiss of death (or at least decay). They call it the "GLP Effect", haha.

Nov. 20, 2012-
:1618-11/21:

Nov. 21, 2012-
:1618ugly:

Nov. 22, 2012-
:11/22-1618:

Latest HMI hi-res Intensitygram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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11/22/2012 06:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


grumpy2 Nooooooo! I wanted my X100 Flare.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Where did you read that ???
 Quoting: TS66


Solarhams Facebook page.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


I'm surprised .... not that it may not be a possibility that it might be decaying, but that it would be considered a dud already.

1618 punched out a couple Ms as just a BG .... you never know.

Here's a nice pic of it @ 23:00

:1618:
 Quoting: TS66


I hope they are wrong. But we will see.
shadasonic

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11/22/2012 08:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

looks as if 1618s polarity signatures are 'swapping' dominance



[link to www.n3kl.org]

1618 developed so fast between -60 and 0 longitude, but its M flares have died out. Either its gaining momentum for a big show or its shutting down, but either way......the SS have started gaining earthside development and I believe in the next 2 to 3 weeks we'll see development all the way through to our 60 degree magnetic 'portal', nins corner.If we have already developing SS either B or BG as they round the corner we will be in for one big LDE of our own as we may see some massive storms develop. This is all very interesting as we have been following this for months and now its all transpiring,our catalyst is bringing the party our way. Much love and respect to all!
Have a great thanksgiving,I'll be spending mine with two kids with the flu. I'll still get some turkey and sweet potato pie though.lol
 Quoting: shadasonic


1618 and 1619 stayed active and developed 60 degrees farther in earthside than any SS in months , I expected them to die out wasn't exactly sure when. The next round of SS have the potential to develop even further. Like we've said the next two weeks will play this out one way or the other. Gabe and whiteangel and I have been following this very close and its like clock work.

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 11/22/2012 08:29 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 08:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

looks as if 1618s polarity signatures are 'swapping' dominance



[link to www.n3kl.org]

1618 developed so fast between -60 and 0 longitude, but its M flares have died out. Either its gaining momentum for a big show or its shutting down, but either way......the SS have started gaining earthside development and I believe in the next 2 to 3 weeks we'll see development all the way through to our 60 degree magnetic 'portal', nins corner.If we have already developing SS either B or BG as they round the corner we will be in for one big LDE of our own as we may see some massive storms develop. This is all very interesting as we have been following this for months and now its all transpiring,our catalyst is bringing the party our way. Much love and respect to all!
Have a great thanksgiving,I'll be spending mine with two kids with the flu. I'll still get some turkey and sweet potato pie though.lol
 Quoting: shadasonic


1618 and 1619 stayed active and developed 60 degrees farther in earthside than any SS in months , I expected them to die out wasn't exactly sure when. The next round of SS have the potential to develop even further. Like we've said the next two weeks will play this out one way or the other. Gabe and whiteangel and I have been following this very close and its like clock work.
 Quoting: shadasonic


Jury is still out for me ... wink

Hope you had a wonderful day with your family Shada hf

Get good sleep all
Hugh M Eye

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11/22/2012 09:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Still B-G-D says NOAA-

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 328 Issued at 0030Z on 23 Nov 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1613 S24W83 203 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1616 N19W42 160 0030 Dro 10 04 Beta
1618 N08W13 133 0350 Ekc 13 30 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1619 N11W51 171 0150 Dao 10 07 Beta
1620 S12E30 090 0060 Hsx 05 01 Alpha

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Here again are the NASA cone model cygnets for 2 Earthbound CMEs. I and others here suspect 1 or 2 more are sandwiched in there somewhere.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
RTS REDUX

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11/23/2012 12:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Some interesting structures here today, any ideas what they might be?

[link to im1.shutterfly.com]

[link to im1.shutterfly.com]

[link to im1.shutterfly.com]

[link to im1.shutterfly.com]
 Quoting: aaronnoraa 26579616


every feature is listed here

[link to www.lmsal.com]

it's takes some getting used to but it's not that difficult.

btw..welcome back NiNzrez! hf
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


My computer won't let me connect, :(

Edit, I see your comment RT, I'll try it later, thanks
 Quoting: Isis One


the HEK search is still down as of now at that link but if you click home there is a video tutorial on how to use it.

you can access HEK right now on Jhelioviewer if you have it downloaded. Just click HEK events.

you can see what it looks like on this tutorial

[link to www.youtube.com]
"If one understands that socialism is not a share-the-wealth programme, but is in reality a method to consolidate and control the wealth, then the seeming paradox of super-rich men promoting socialism becomes no paradox at all. Instead, it becomes logical, even the perfect tool of power-seeking megalomaniacs.
Communism or more accurately, socialism, is not a movement of the downtrodden masses, but of the economic elite." -Gary Allen
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Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 12:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Welcome back NiNz!worship

faints

I see some awesome Solar Reporting the last few pages,great stuff folkssunhf

So,is to be a Black Solar Friday or what!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 12:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunspot 1618 is in a state of decay. And no longer a threat for strong solar flares.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


grumpy2 Nooooooo! I wanted my X100 Flare.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Where did you read that ???
 Quoting: TS66


Solarhams Facebook page.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


I didn't read that anywhere. I just made it up because that is what I want.
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 12:21 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Cactus got this one a little wrong hey [link to www.sidc.oma.be] ?

I see a Type III followed by a Type II and then from the North-West a very fast spray like ejection,pretty awesome that spray thing is,what-ever it is - I don't know if that type of ejection has it's own name(the 'spray-like' One) - Anyhoo' - reading through it appears Hugh/66 have covered most all bases in terms of mis-identified CME's,again some great work folks!

Hope all are goodhf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 12:27 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm not even going to bother linking any one in particular,all I will say is wow,that's a lot of CME's [link to www.sidc.oma.be] wow.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Solar Guardian

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Malaysia
11/23/2012 12:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm not even going to bother linking any one in particular,all I will say is wow,that's a lot of CME's [link to www.sidc.oma.be] wow.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I think there will be lots of CMEs in the whole month of December 2012, SC. abductabduct
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 12:30 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
X-Rays at B3(ish) [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] that is quite low,the lowest for around a Week at least - will 1618 produce any more yet?

Maybe just a dying goodbye kiss before disappearing over the West limb perhaps!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 12:36 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm not even going to bother linking any one in particular,all I will say is wow,that's a lot of CME's [link to www.sidc.oma.be] wow.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I think there will be lots of CMEs in the whole month of December 2012, SC. abductabduct
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


Hello SG : )

We've just had a fair few as it is,and prior to those I had been keeping tabs on other smaller CME's via the SDO 193 Angstroms that had appeared to of not been notched up as being Geo-effective,though they appeared to me as being such.

Basically,there is already a lot of Space-Weather on it's way,any more could spell for some incredible Storming!

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/23/2012 12:37 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

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11/23/2012 12:44 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

How is it a developing BG SS gives us nice M flares, goes BGD, then dies. The energy is being drawn convectively throughout the sun , has been now for 4 months but its coming our way! Peace and good night to all!

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 11/23/2012 12:45 AM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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11/23/2012 12:44 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


grumpy2 Nooooooo! I wanted my X100 Flare.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Where did you read that ???
 Quoting: TS66


Solarhams Facebook page.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


I didn't read that anywhere. I just made it up because that is what I want.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Haha I wish you the best of luck with that one ;)
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 01:05 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Erm,on this image of 1618 from Solen,what is this surrounding the trailer spot [link to www.solen.info] ?

Is that someones' Marker-Pen or is that a genuine feature from Yesterday of the region?

Actually,just figured it out,they were trying to separate 2059(area just behind 1618) [link to www.solen.info] from the overall Magnetic structure of the beast,1618.

So it is Marker-Pen : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 01:10 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

How is it a developing BG SS gives us nice M flares, goes BGD, then dies. The energy is being drawn convectively throughout the sun , has been now for 4 months but its coming our way! Peace and good night to all!
 Quoting: shadasonic


She did let off a few large Flares that would have helped weaken the overall complexity of the Group from BGD to BG,though Solen still has 1618 as BGD [link to www.solen.info] I think 1618 has divided into two regions,the trailing area is Numbered as 2059 and should get a SS Number in the following Hours.

Hello and Good Night Shada : )

.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 01:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

How is it a developing BG SS gives us nice M flares, goes BGD, then dies. The energy is being drawn convectively throughout the sun , has been now for 4 months but its coming our way! Peace and good night to all!
 Quoting: shadasonic


Just in case you don't have this one bookmarked Shada I thought I'd share this with you [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] which can be accessed through here along with the other models we use [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

Rice and Peas Bro'.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 01:26 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Southern Coronal Hole looks like it is holding the Sun in a Egg-cup [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
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11/23/2012 01:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Not too much to be seen at present,on the South-West there can be seen a Prominence lifting off,on the North-West close to the limb a Filament looks like it did something,though what I am not too sure,and over the North-East limb can be seen some flailing from a active region [link to halpha.nso.edu] .

The Prominence lift-off in 304 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

But,all in all for now activity is low.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/23/2012 02:09 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/23/2012 01:41 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1618's leading Filament has been very resistant to any semblance of budging,even through all the action that has been thrown her way - quite impressive really,she is still the same shape,size and in the same location,bless.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9968554
United States
11/23/2012 01:45 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1618's leading Filament has been very resistant to any semblance of budging,even through all the action that has been thrown her way - quite impressive really,she is still the same shape,size and in the same location,bless.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


The bee atch needs to ramp it up and blow.
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 01:57 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
X-rays are approaching the B3(ish)threshold [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] will they go further down or will we see a little bump just as the threshold is breached?

I will be watching.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9968554
United States
11/23/2012 02:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
X-rays are approaching the B3(ish)threshold [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] will they go further down or will we see a little bump just as the threshold is breached?

I will be watching.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


That is cool. Thanks for posting the link. What the the flashes in the sunspot?
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 02:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
X-rays are approaching the B3(ish)threshold [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] will they go further down or will we see a little bump just as the threshold is breached?

I will be watching.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


That is cool. Thanks for posting the link. What the the flashes in the sunspot?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Hello,which flashes in which Sunspot do you mean?

Did you mean the H alpha link(this One) [link to halpha.nso.edu] ?

If so then any flashes you see from within/around a Sunspot will be due to Flaring,though the X-Rays from any Flaring at present are very,very small - GOES is holding out at B3 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
11/23/2012 02:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So then,Cactus has just now changed their grading of the CME's of the last 48(ish)Hours with Two of them revised to Type III and the others Type II,here is a small snippet -

0027|2012/11/20 11:48| 06 | 319| 244| 0432| 0200| 0139| 1018| III [link to www.sidc.oma.be]

0039|2012/11/21 08:37| 04 | 076| 114| 0355| 0066| 0244| 0525| II [link to www.sidc.oma.be]

0043|2012/11/21 16:12| 03 | 090| 186| 0557| 0098| 0337| 0781| III [link to www.sidc.oma.be]

0044|2012/11/21 18:00| 05 | 285| 108| 0316| 0098| 0141| 0578| II [link to www.sidc.oma.be]

And finally - 0049|2012/11/22 09:24| 05 | 087| 208| 0433| 0098| 0245| 0679| III [link to www.sidc.oma.be] .

Still,that is only just so far,could still be more upgrades.

Rice and Peas.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9968554
United States
11/23/2012 02:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
X-rays are approaching the B3(ish)threshold [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] will they go further down or will we see a little bump just as the threshold is breached?

I will be watching.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


That is cool. Thanks for posting the link. What the the flashes in the sunspot?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Hello,which flashes in which Sunspot do you mean?

Did you mean the H alpha link(this One) [link to halpha.nso.edu] ?

If so then any flashes you see from within/around a Sunspot will be due to Flaring,though the X-Rays from any Flaring at present are very,very small - GOES is holding out at B3 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hello, little flashes in the big thing sort of in the middle facing the camera. I am sorry but my knowledge is limited to the difference between flares and CMES's. I rely on you Suntards (thank you) for detail and explanation. I am not stupid but just cannot focus on this subject other than it bringing Solar Doom at this time.

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