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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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11/23/2012 06:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is really sad :(


[link to solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Don't look now but I think the Big Southern Filament is snapping [link to halpha.nso.edu] looks like it's about to do something yet GM!


Eyes on this baby.

Edit:So far it has definitely split [link to halpha.nso.edu] (not the best H alpha)waiting for this One [link to halpha.nso.edu] to catch up to see if it redistributes itself(Solar Marxism)or violently lashes out(Solar Keynsism) : )

.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


:)
Tiny Trink

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11/23/2012 06:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Everyone,

Stay Safe and Balanced.

Shine Brightly.

Much Love,

[link to www.youtube.com]


Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 07:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf

From Solen 11/23

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 23-24 due to CME effects and quiet to unsettled on November 25.

Region 11618 [N08W14] decayed in the leading and central spot sections and became less complex as the largest magnetic delta structure disappeared. M class flares are still possible.

20-60% chance of M and X flares.

[link to www.solen.info]

From NOAA 11/23

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to begin the forecast period at mostly quiet levels until the arrival of
the 20 Nov CME midday on day one (23 Nov) when conditions are expected
to rise to active levels with a chance for minor storm periods.
Conditions have a chance for reaching major storm levels early on day
two (24 Nov)
with the expected arrival of the 21 Nov CME. On day three
(25 Nov) conditions are expected to return to unsettled to active levels
due to CME combined with high speed stream effects.

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/30
Minor Storm 20/30/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 60/65/50

1613 S24W83 203 60 2 HSX 1 A
1616 N19W42 160 30 10 DRO 4 B
1618 N08W13 133 350 13 EKC 30 BGD
1619 N11W51 171 150 10 DAO 7 B
1620 S12E30 90 60 5 HSX 1 A
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AND Cesium's filament Helioviewer: [link to helioviewer.org]


Well it looks like there is a lot to watch for today ...
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
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11/23/2012 07:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello 66 and Tinkussunhf

Just off the North-East limb [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 07:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The filament surrounding 1618 also looks like it would like to take flight.

Here's the movie, take a look at the SW corner lifting up.

[link to helioviewer.org]

... and again her on halpha

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 08:00 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The filament surrounding 1618 also looks like it would like to take flight.

Here's the movie, take a look at the SW corner lifting up.

[link to helioviewer.org]

... and again her on halpha

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: TS66


Your Filament when it does go should be in a explosive fashion!

It looks to be feeding via each end off of 1618 to me.

The Southern Filament is gone [link to halpha.nso.edu] the other H alphas don't seem to be updating as usual?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 08:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Double trouble [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] 1618 and the North-East(which is quite a strange patch of X-Rays) [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I would have thought the North-East ejected,I will check now.

Edit:Hard to tell with the North-East,there is a region over the East limb toward the equator that looks to be throwing a fit periodically,the X-Ray patch I mention above appears to be a suspended area of high energy Plasmas above another region yet to crest the limb.

The Southern Filament can be seen beginning to tear and Flare [link to sdodata.oma.be] .

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/23/2012 08:10 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 08:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Lasco 2 hasn't update since 08:00
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 08:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Double trouble [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] 1618 and the North-East(which is quite a strange patch of X-Rays) [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I would have thought the North-East ejected,I will check now.

Edit:Hard to tell with the North-East,there is a region over the East limb toward the equator that looks to be throwing a fit periodically,the X-Ray patch I mention above appears to be a suspended area of high energy Plasmas above another region yet to crest the limb.

The Southern Filament can be seen beginning to tear and Flare [link to sdodata.oma.be] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Huge filament to just disappear. The C was from 1618, so without Lascos, where'd the ejecta go ???

So frustrating.
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 08:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Lasco 2 hasn't update since 08:00
 Quoting: TS66


I've close to given up on the Coronagraphs(all of them)as it seems that someone does'nt want other People being able to forecast a CME's potential direction before the 'Official Product' is put out by a certain agency gaah

I rely on the SDO movies of the Corona on this site [link to sdodata.oma.be] to determine whether we have a CME or not.

Anyhoo' - This channel of the last Hours of the Suns' action is super sexy and worth a look [link to sdodata.oma.be] 94 Angstroms,hot.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 26570785
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11/23/2012 08:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Lasco 2 hasn't update since 08:00
 Quoting: TS66


I've close to given up on the Coronagraphs(all of them)as it seems that someone does'nt want other People being able to forecast a CME's potential direction before the 'Official Product' is put out by a certain agency gaah

I rely on the SDO movies of the Corona on this site [link to sdodata.oma.be] to determine whether we have a CME or not.

Anyhoo' - This channel of the last Hours of the Suns' action is super sexy and worth a look [link to sdodata.oma.be] 94 Angstroms,hot.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


So what do you think ??? I certainly saw ejecta .... but can't figure out which way it's going, much less if it will be geo-effective .... verysad
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 08:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Double trouble [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] 1618 and the North-East(which is quite a strange patch of X-Rays) [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I would have thought the North-East ejected,I will check now.

Edit:Hard to tell with the North-East,there is a region over the East limb toward the equator that looks to be throwing a fit periodically,the X-Ray patch I mention above appears to be a suspended area of high energy Plasmas above another region yet to crest the limb.

The Southern Filament can be seen beginning to tear and Flare [link to sdodata.oma.be] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Huge filament to just disappear. The C was from 1618, so without Lascos, where'd the ejecta go ???

So frustrating.
 Quoting: TS66


I'm looking at the H alpha that shows the whole thing(though the quality is poor)and some definitely looks to have rained back down to the 'surface' Esp. the Western most end [link to halpha.nso.edu] though some must have ejected,I'm awaiting further updates to see how hot the Middle region of the Filament gets to determine whether it Filament Flared or redistributed itself.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/23/2012 08:30 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 08:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Lasco 2 hasn't update since 08:00
 Quoting: TS66


I've close to given up on the Coronagraphs(all of them)as it seems that someone does'nt want other People being able to forecast a CME's potential direction before the 'Official Product' is put out by a certain agency gaah

I rely on the SDO movies of the Corona on this site [link to sdodata.oma.be] to determine whether we have a CME or not.

Anyhoo' - This channel of the last Hours of the Suns' action is super sexy and worth a look [link to sdodata.oma.be] 94 Angstroms,hot.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


So what do you think ??? I certainly saw ejecta .... but can't figure out which way it's going, much less if it will be geo-effective .... verysad
 Quoting: TS66


Give it about half Hour and the SDO site should be able to tell us a bit more about potential [link to sdodata.oma.be] interesting to note that the Filament went at the same time 1618 Flared and that strange emission on the North-East appeared.

hf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 08:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The strange emission [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] on the North-East is strange,as strange usually is.

The Filament area is beginning to look a little hotter but Imo,I think it dispersed more than violently ejected and hence should not be much of a CME as a result,though I could be wrong.

Looking at it so far it would appear that if there were to be associated ejecta from her it would have gone a little too far South to become Geo-effective but time will tell.

Bloody Coronagraphs ah
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 08:43 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The strange emission [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] on the North-East is strange,as strange usually is.

The Filament area is beginning to look a little hotter but Imo,I think it dispersed more than violently ejected and hence should not be much of a CME as a result,though I could be wrong.

Looking at it so far it would appear that if there were to be associated ejecta from her it would have gone a little too far South to become Geo-effective but time will tell.

Bloody Coronagraphs ah
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


HUGE ejecta from that Southern filamanet, check it out !!

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

hiding

It does look like it's heading south however.
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 08:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The strange emission [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] on the North-East is strange,as strange usually is.

The Filament area is beginning to look a little hotter but Imo,I think it dispersed more than violently ejected and hence should not be much of a CME as a result,though I could be wrong.

Looking at it so far it would appear that if there were to be associated ejecta from her it would have gone a little too far South to become Geo-effective but time will tell.

Bloody Coronagraphs ah
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


HUGE ejecta from that Southern filamanet, check it out !!

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

hiding
 Quoting: TS66


It does look a little more violent than previously thought!

[link to sdodata.oma.be] Do a little Dance : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 08:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
BTW, love watching the sun with you Cesium hf
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 09:00 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The strange emission [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] on the North-East is strange,as strange usually is.

The Filament area is beginning to look a little hotter but Imo,I think it dispersed more than violently ejected and hence should not be much of a CME as a result,though I could be wrong.

Looking at it so far it would appear that if there were to be associated ejecta from her it would have gone a little too far South to become Geo-effective but time will tell.

Bloody Coronagraphs ah
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


HUGE ejecta from that Southern filamanet, check it out !!

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

hiding

It does look like it's heading south however.
 Quoting: TS66


Cool looking so far!

Could become Geo-effective yet!

Need more updates,keep checking this passband [link to sdodata.oma.be] as it is one of the best to view the Corona in.

Good stuff 66,it does look quite eruptive in 304sunhf

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/23/2012 09:02 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 09:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
BTW, love watching the sun with you Cesium hf
 Quoting: TS66


Same,samewink <--- 66's smilie tag.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 09:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The strange emission [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] on the North-East is strange,as strange usually is.

The Filament area is beginning to look a little hotter but Imo,I think it dispersed more than violently ejected and hence should not be much of a CME as a result,though I could be wrong.

Looking at it so far it would appear that if there were to be associated ejecta from her it would have gone a little too far South to become Geo-effective but time will tell.

Bloody Coronagraphs ah
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


HUGE ejecta from that Southern filamanet, check it out !!

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

hiding

It does look like it's heading south however.
 Quoting: TS66


I agree,it does appear to be mostly headed South [link to sdodata.oma.be] <--- Looks bloody awesome though,it could disturb a more central area of Corona so need to be watched.

There has been a whole raft of CME's in the last 2(ish)Days,I posted a bunch of Type III's and II's earlier that had been reclassified by Cactus - We should be getting some kind of Coronal Pile-up in the coming Days [link to www.sidc.oma.be] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 09:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ima' post it again because I Luv it.


[link to www.youtube.com]

Sorry,get used to it : P
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 09:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hoo.k.

I gotz to pop out again with the little fella' for walkies - Catch you guys in a bit...keep watching!

Much Luv and Respect x.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shenue

User ID: 5263313
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11/23/2012 09:35 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all!
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 09:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all!
 Quoting: shenue


Morning Shenue hf
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 09:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Great helioview, view, and splash down.

[link to helioviewer.org]
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 10:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CME on STEREO Behind from the filament eruption

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 10:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just saw this video, and I have to be honest, it brought tears to my eyes.

Greed personified.



Supposed to be a glorious day today in the NE, I think I'll go get me some.

Have a wonderful day all hf
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 10:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'll leave you with this (stole it from another solar thread, thank you Moana Nalu !!)

The latest from Professor Michio Kaku

[link to enenews.com]
El Quisqueyano

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11/23/2012 11:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Significant earthquake precursor signal detected on 11/23/12 at 1556utc/1056est. Possible 6+.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in East of France from somewhere out in the Northern, Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Alaska, Canada and Chile.


All who live anywhere in the vicinity of this line trajectory should be wary next 5 hours. Have escape plan ready and seek open terrain in the event of felt tremor. Secure most of your heavy objects and belongings around your home.


Namaste,

Hopefully I am wrong. Or it hits an unpopulated area.
Japan is also a likely target. Be wary.

EastofFrance
Image courtesy of Travis Bicker

Last Edited by El Quisqueyano on 11/23/2012 11:13 AM
Hugh M Eye

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11/23/2012 11:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Great work catching this, TS. This could be the biggest CME coming our way in a few days....drip, drip, drip,....

Earth is to the left in this pic-
:11/23CME:

Two nice CMEs today. One Earth-directed and the other far-side. Here's the movies from STEREO-

Ahead:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Behind:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

A giant filament in the south produced a long Hyder flare as it lifted off.

Not sure if this is the new cone model or an older one (it looks new to me):

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

explosionahhhabomb

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 11/23/2012 11:15 AM


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