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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 02:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
X-rays are approaching the B3(ish)threshold [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] will they go further down or will we see a little bump just as the threshold is breached?

I will be watching.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


That is cool. Thanks for posting the link. What the the flashes in the sunspot?
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 02:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
X-rays are approaching the B3(ish)threshold [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] will they go further down or will we see a little bump just as the threshold is breached?

I will be watching.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


That is cool. Thanks for posting the link. What the the flashes in the sunspot?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Hello,which flashes in which Sunspot do you mean?

Did you mean the H alpha link(this One) [link to halpha.nso.edu] ?

If so then any flashes you see from within/around a Sunspot will be due to Flaring,though the X-Rays from any Flaring at present are very,very small - GOES is holding out at B3 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 02:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So then,Cactus has just now changed their grading of the CME's of the last 48(ish)Hours with Two of them revised to Type III and the others Type II,here is a small snippet -

0027|2012/11/20 11:48| 06 | 319| 244| 0432| 0200| 0139| 1018| III [link to www.sidc.oma.be]

0039|2012/11/21 08:37| 04 | 076| 114| 0355| 0066| 0244| 0525| II [link to www.sidc.oma.be]

0043|2012/11/21 16:12| 03 | 090| 186| 0557| 0098| 0337| 0781| III [link to www.sidc.oma.be]

0044|2012/11/21 18:00| 05 | 285| 108| 0316| 0098| 0141| 0578| II [link to www.sidc.oma.be]

And finally - 0049|2012/11/22 09:24| 05 | 087| 208| 0433| 0098| 0245| 0679| III [link to www.sidc.oma.be] .

Still,that is only just so far,could still be more upgrades.

Rice and Peas.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 02:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
X-rays are approaching the B3(ish)threshold [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] will they go further down or will we see a little bump just as the threshold is breached?

I will be watching.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


That is cool. Thanks for posting the link. What the the flashes in the sunspot?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Hello,which flashes in which Sunspot do you mean?

Did you mean the H alpha link(this One) [link to halpha.nso.edu] ?

If so then any flashes you see from within/around a Sunspot will be due to Flaring,though the X-Rays from any Flaring at present are very,very small - GOES is holding out at B3 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hello, little flashes in the big thing sort of in the middle facing the camera. I am sorry but my knowledge is limited to the difference between flares and CMES's. I rely on you Suntards (thank you) for detail and explanation. I am not stupid but just cannot focus on this subject other than it bringing Solar Doom at this time.
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 02:47 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
X-rays are approaching the B3(ish)threshold [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] will they go further down or will we see a little bump just as the threshold is breached?

I will be watching.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


That is cool. Thanks for posting the link. What the the flashes in the sunspot?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Hello,which flashes in which Sunspot do you mean?

Did you mean the H alpha link(this One) [link to halpha.nso.edu] ?

If so then any flashes you see from within/around a Sunspot will be due to Flaring,though the X-Rays from any Flaring at present are very,very small - GOES is holding out at B3 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hello, little flashes in the big thing sort of in the middle facing the camera. I am sorry but my knowledge is limited to the difference between flares and CMES's. I rely on you Suntards (thank you) for detail and explanation. I am not stupid but just cannot focus on this subject other than it bringing Solar Doom at this time.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


No you are not stupid at all,thank you for asking - The 'Big Thing' you are looking at is Sunspot 1618 seen here [link to www.solen.info] and the flashes you see are minor Flaring events from the Group.

This is a good site if you would like to know in advance what may be heading our direction as well as what other events may have happened in the prior Days,here [link to www.solen.info] You will be able to get Forecasts from that site and other information.

please,feel free to ask any questions you have and someone here will do their best to answer them for you as best they know how.

Respect to you : )

.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 02:52 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CME update - it looks like there may be another decent sized event that Cactus is beginning to show in this little mistake,Top-Right [link to www.sidc.oma.be] I'm pretty sure that is the leading edge of at least a Type II,as always,I will be watchinghf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 03:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CME update - it looks like there may be another decent sized event that Cactus is beginning to show in this little mistake,Top-Right [link to www.sidc.oma.be] I'm pretty sure that is the leading edge of at least a Type II,as always,I will be watchinghf
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Thank you. I think I am getting my multiple CME's. Yes. I only hope they do what needs to be done. LOl, all Suntards need a meeting place after the solar doom as there will be no internet.
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 03:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey, SC check out my thread under the user name visted about the UFO I saw on 11/04
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 03:49 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey, SC check out my thread under the user name visted about the UFO I saw on 11/04
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Just didwink
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 03:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey, SC check out my thread under the user name visted about the UFO I saw on 11/04
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Just didwink
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


The only thing I did not mention, because I hadn't thought about it, is that despite the two big lights on the bottom being so bright there was no beam coming from them. I go out every night looking up for them to come back. I hope they do. saw them as a kid too but they had a different craft, 40plus years lots can happen.
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 04:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey, SC check out my thread under the user name visted about the UFO I saw on 11/04
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Just didwink
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


The only thing I did not mention, because I hadn't thought about it, is that despite the two big lights on the bottom being so bright there was no beam coming from them. I go out every night looking up for them to come back. I hope they do. saw them as a kid too but they had a different craft, 40plus years lots can happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Not all lights send a 'beam' - most Lights' light is radiant meaning it disperses all directions,the only reason a light would have a beam is if the light was directed or there was a medium like a Fog etc. that would allow the lights brightest path to be seen(if you see what I mean!?)

But yes,a lot can happen in 40 Years,though I would'nt have thought Alien Craft would have reinvented the light bulb within that time just for extra effect : )

I'd keep my eye on the One's that look similar to Satellites but obviously can't be due to their motion,these are very interesting objects should anyone else be lucky enough to have seen them.

They are up there,I have seen them myself but as I said on your thread,I still would'nt make the leap to them being Alien Craft as we don't know just how deep our Black Projects truly go.

Rice and Peas.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 04:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've got to pop out quickly to take the little Fella' for a walkies - keep on watching folks,be back in a bitsunhf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 05:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm going to slowly count backwards,and 3...2..1 and - You're back in the Roomstoned





Hellooo Folks - I'm back in the roomsunhf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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11/23/2012 05:41 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is really sad :(


[link to solarham.net]
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 05:54 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is really sad :(


[link to solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Carzy hey!?

Don't put your eggs all in One Basket though Bro'!
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 06:02 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is really sad :(


[link to solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Don't look now but I think the Big Southern Filament is snapping [link to halpha.nso.edu] looks like it's about to do something yet GM!


Eyes on this baby.

Edit:So far it has definitely split [link to halpha.nso.edu] (not the best H alpha)waiting for this One [link to halpha.nso.edu] to catch up to see if it redistributes itself(Solar Marxism)or violently lashes out(Solar Keynsism) : )

.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/23/2012 06:09 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 14410232
United States
11/23/2012 06:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is really sad :(


[link to solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Don't look now but I think the Big Southern Filament is snapping [link to halpha.nso.edu] looks like it's about to do something yet GM!


Eyes on this baby.

Edit:So far it has definitely split [link to halpha.nso.edu] (not the best H alpha)waiting for this One [link to halpha.nso.edu] to catch up to see if it redistributes itself(Solar Marxism)or violently lashes out(Solar Keynsism) : )

.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


:)
Tiny Trink

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11/23/2012 06:55 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Everyone,

Stay Safe and Balanced.

Shine Brightly.

Much Love,

[link to www.youtube.com]


Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 07:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf

From Solen 11/23

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 23-24 due to CME effects and quiet to unsettled on November 25.

Region 11618 [N08W14] decayed in the leading and central spot sections and became less complex as the largest magnetic delta structure disappeared. M class flares are still possible.

20-60% chance of M and X flares.

[link to www.solen.info]

From NOAA 11/23

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to begin the forecast period at mostly quiet levels until the arrival of
the 20 Nov CME midday on day one (23 Nov) when conditions are expected
to rise to active levels with a chance for minor storm periods.
Conditions have a chance for reaching major storm levels early on day
two (24 Nov)
with the expected arrival of the 21 Nov CME. On day three
(25 Nov) conditions are expected to return to unsettled to active levels
due to CME combined with high speed stream effects.

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/30
Minor Storm 20/30/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 60/65/50

1613 S24W83 203 60 2 HSX 1 A
1616 N19W42 160 30 10 DRO 4 B
1618 N08W13 133 350 13 EKC 30 BGD
1619 N11W51 171 150 10 DAO 7 B
1620 S12E30 90 60 5 HSX 1 A
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AND Cesium's filament Helioviewer: [link to helioviewer.org]


Well it looks like there is a lot to watch for today ...
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 07:54 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello 66 and Tinkussunhf

Just off the North-East limb [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 07:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The filament surrounding 1618 also looks like it would like to take flight.

Here's the movie, take a look at the SW corner lifting up.

[link to helioviewer.org]

... and again her on halpha

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 08:00 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The filament surrounding 1618 also looks like it would like to take flight.

Here's the movie, take a look at the SW corner lifting up.

[link to helioviewer.org]

... and again her on halpha

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: TS66


Your Filament when it does go should be in a explosive fashion!

It looks to be feeding via each end off of 1618 to me.

The Southern Filament is gone [link to halpha.nso.edu] the other H alphas don't seem to be updating as usual?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 08:05 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Double trouble [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] 1618 and the North-East(which is quite a strange patch of X-Rays) [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I would have thought the North-East ejected,I will check now.

Edit:Hard to tell with the North-East,there is a region over the East limb toward the equator that looks to be throwing a fit periodically,the X-Ray patch I mention above appears to be a suspended area of high energy Plasmas above another region yet to crest the limb.

The Southern Filament can be seen beginning to tear and Flare [link to sdodata.oma.be] .

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/23/2012 08:10 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 08:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Lasco 2 hasn't update since 08:00
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 08:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Double trouble [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] 1618 and the North-East(which is quite a strange patch of X-Rays) [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I would have thought the North-East ejected,I will check now.

Edit:Hard to tell with the North-East,there is a region over the East limb toward the equator that looks to be throwing a fit periodically,the X-Ray patch I mention above appears to be a suspended area of high energy Plasmas above another region yet to crest the limb.

The Southern Filament can be seen beginning to tear and Flare [link to sdodata.oma.be] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Huge filament to just disappear. The C was from 1618, so without Lascos, where'd the ejecta go ???

So frustrating.
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 08:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Lasco 2 hasn't update since 08:00
 Quoting: TS66


I've close to given up on the Coronagraphs(all of them)as it seems that someone does'nt want other People being able to forecast a CME's potential direction before the 'Official Product' is put out by a certain agency gaah

I rely on the SDO movies of the Corona on this site [link to sdodata.oma.be] to determine whether we have a CME or not.

Anyhoo' - This channel of the last Hours of the Suns' action is super sexy and worth a look [link to sdodata.oma.be] 94 Angstroms,hot.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 26570785
United States
11/23/2012 08:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Lasco 2 hasn't update since 08:00
 Quoting: TS66


I've close to given up on the Coronagraphs(all of them)as it seems that someone does'nt want other People being able to forecast a CME's potential direction before the 'Official Product' is put out by a certain agency gaah

I rely on the SDO movies of the Corona on this site [link to sdodata.oma.be] to determine whether we have a CME or not.

Anyhoo' - This channel of the last Hours of the Suns' action is super sexy and worth a look [link to sdodata.oma.be] 94 Angstroms,hot.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


So what do you think ??? I certainly saw ejecta .... but can't figure out which way it's going, much less if it will be geo-effective .... verysad
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 08:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Double trouble [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] 1618 and the North-East(which is quite a strange patch of X-Rays) [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I would have thought the North-East ejected,I will check now.

Edit:Hard to tell with the North-East,there is a region over the East limb toward the equator that looks to be throwing a fit periodically,the X-Ray patch I mention above appears to be a suspended area of high energy Plasmas above another region yet to crest the limb.

The Southern Filament can be seen beginning to tear and Flare [link to sdodata.oma.be] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Huge filament to just disappear. The C was from 1618, so without Lascos, where'd the ejecta go ???

So frustrating.
 Quoting: TS66


I'm looking at the H alpha that shows the whole thing(though the quality is poor)and some definitely looks to have rained back down to the 'surface' Esp. the Western most end [link to halpha.nso.edu] though some must have ejected,I'm awaiting further updates to see how hot the Middle region of the Filament gets to determine whether it Filament Flared or redistributed itself.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 11/23/2012 08:30 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 08:33 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Lasco 2 hasn't update since 08:00
 Quoting: TS66


I've close to given up on the Coronagraphs(all of them)as it seems that someone does'nt want other People being able to forecast a CME's potential direction before the 'Official Product' is put out by a certain agency gaah

I rely on the SDO movies of the Corona on this site [link to sdodata.oma.be] to determine whether we have a CME or not.

Anyhoo' - This channel of the last Hours of the Suns' action is super sexy and worth a look [link to sdodata.oma.be] 94 Angstroms,hot.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


So what do you think ??? I certainly saw ejecta .... but can't figure out which way it's going, much less if it will be geo-effective .... verysad
 Quoting: TS66


Give it about half Hour and the SDO site should be able to tell us a bit more about potential [link to sdodata.oma.be] interesting to note that the Filament went at the same time 1618 Flared and that strange emission on the North-East appeared.

hf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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11/23/2012 08:40 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The strange emission [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] on the North-East is strange,as strange usually is.

The Filament area is beginning to look a little hotter but Imo,I think it dispersed more than violently ejected and hence should not be much of a CME as a result,though I could be wrong.

Looking at it so far it would appear that if there were to be associated ejecta from her it would have gone a little too far South to become Geo-effective but time will tell.

Bloody Coronagraphs ah
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1

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